Brexit Thread V - The Final Countdown?!?

[777]

*Knock knock* "Yes" "It's me, May, please let me in!" "Oh no, not Again!"

 

[FriendlyFire]

I'm not concerned about the skill of the UK's negotiators. I'm concerned whether or not the EU negotiators acted within their mandate, thinly democratic as it might be (what the representatives in the council told them to do), or they acted on their own, or the Commisson's will. and goals in opposition to that mandate. If indeed the UK and the EU split without a deal, you can bet this will become an issue. Too late.

Next you will demand the Italy, Spain, Greece follow the rules of the EuroZone. /s

 

[mitsho]

It's interesting that Switzerland bet on banking a long time ago also but does not seem as corroded by the consequences as the UK by the City.

That‘s because the Life Sciences Sector and Machine Industry are as big as the Finance Sector in Switzerland and it was the booming of the Life Sciences that helped mitigate the reaction to the Financial Crisis of 2007 onwards. Also, the political system of Switzerland is very decentralized and combined with our culture results in another sector, agriculture, having a disproportionate impact. And lastly, Switzerland is small and we can only wiggle out of international pressure by - say - the UK and others for so long (banking secrecy). Which, by the way, expect Guernsey and co will have much less leniency from the EU as soon as the UK will have left...

 

[Ironsided]

*Knock knock* "Yes" "It's me, May, please let me in!" "Oh no, not Again!"

Heh, made me think of Wuthering Heights by Kate Bush.


E.U!

It's me, I'm U.K.

I've come home

I'm so co ho ho hold

Lemme me inna your windo ow ow how…


So fragile and self-assured. How can anyone resist this kitten? Well, images of the T-May would do it.

 

[Hrothbern]

Next you will demand the Italy, Spain, Greece follow the rules of the EuroZone. /s

From what I understand:
An Eurozone forces, necessates, all members to have a similar productivity increase. Being within the Eurozone helps converging (and also growing faster) as long as the difference in kind of economies and financial cultures is not too big. If that similarity is good enough, losing the freedom to handle a big crisis with your own Central Bank and currency is less important than the steady advantages.

However... I think that for the long term healthy growth Spain, Portugal and Italy should all get out of the Eurozone before there is some new global crisis. Greece not yet.

And the sad thing here is that when these countries started during the 90ies to converge their currency to a fixed rate with the DeutschMark, giving up that constant devaluation, it could already be seen from economical indicators, that it would not be good for growth.
Optimism in makeability was imo too high all over Europe, and the path chosen was just followed.
(and considering the history of periods with criminal high inflation peaks, very much detrimental for business and upsetting ordinary people, I can even understand it)

Getting out of the Eurozone will allow them to pick up their old strategy of slowly devaluating their own currency at the same rate as their productivity (on labor and capital) that does not grow as fast as the northern Eurozone countries.
From what I saw in a financial investors risk article on expected currency rates of the New-Peseta, the New-Lira, the New-Escudo, it would go rather smoothly for Spain and Italy (no disruptive devaluation at the start and hardly weakening thereafter), but for the New-Escudo it was estimated that the New-Escudo would devaluate within 10 years to 50% of the value at the start of the transition and then slowly devaluate over time. Already quite disruptive.
Greece not yet, because in that same risk analysis the New-Drachma would devaluate within 10 years to roughly 25%. That is too much disruptive for now.
EDIT ... risk management of Big Investors does include these break-out scenarios as standard assessment: you do not want to have invested too much in countries where after a break-out the currency devaluates, nor do you want money parked on banks there.
The other thing is that the more a country has breaking out of the Eurozone stated by leading politicians, the higher that risk is assessed, the lower the appetite to invest in that country.

However... that the UK kept its own Pound... I am not that sure it was economically the best way forward for the UK. The kind of economy and financial culture fitted well enough with the North Eurozone countries.
But considering how important that feeling of independancy is for many in the UK, all over the society... I can understand it.

It also depends on the amount of trade. The more trade as % of GDP you have, the more disruptive up-down currency changes are !
The more your domestic economy, your domestic companies (!), are needing imports to be able to function, are needing imports to be able to export, the more disruptive up-down currency changes are.
And this B2B trading in components has increased enormously over the decades because of our more complex (specialised) economies.
Trade is no longer some mineral resources for the industry + some national specialties for consumers from complete watches, cars, to flowers or vegetables ! Around 60% of the UK imports are B2B needed for UK industry to function, including producing export goods. Around 30% of the value of goods exported by the UK is from imported goods (mostly from the Eurozone).
For my small country leaving the Eurozone would be a brain-dead stupid decision.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-47212992

A very big country (with lots of domestic trade between regions) has less trade as % of GDP with other countries, and is less disrupted. If you add inter-state trade within the US to foreign trade, the trade as % of US GDP is comparable to the EU.
A small country the size of a region of a big country has two layers of trade: inter-regional trade + truly international trade. The EU, the Eurozone is mainly (in volumes) faciliating the (inter-regional) trade with direct neighbors.
The UK is not as big as China or the US and is fully dependant on that 60% imports to keep its own economy functioning. And the Pound to Euro volatility disruptive and also hindering the economical synergies from further "regional" trade, because low profit margin goods are too vulnerable for currency changes. Also one of the reasons that the trade between the UK and the EU is not as high as it could have been.
One of the projects the EU has running is the potential of further eliminating borders to tap into the economical potential of "trade" between small companies and public services (like hospitals) across borders.
Similar to the intertwining across the Irish border we have now and at risk by Brexit. That EU growth potential with not too big efforts, though a long term program, was estimated at Euro 200 Billion additional GDP.

One of the most fundamental reasons of the EU to come with the Eurozone was tho encourage companies to trade more within the Eurozone, making the Eurozone (the EU) less dependant on international trade.
At the same time making the Eurozone more acttractive for international trade partners because of price stability between Eurozone countries from 1 currency, instead of always differing prices over time from a multitude of changing currency values.
Making the EU more attractive for international trade partners... meaning making it easier to get better FTA's with bigger quotas at reduced tariffs for exports of the EU.

The UK missed all that.

 

[Hrothbern]

Which, by the way, expect Guernsey and co will have much less leniency from the EU as soon as the UK will have left...

I guess the same

Time to deal with a lot there... the time is long gone that "we" allowed some backward rural islands or dots to have at least some "proper" income from Finance to prevent them becoming communist or so.
But those petty cash amounts of the de-colonisation era have grown into a burden for us all.
Time to deal with the likes of Cyprus, Monaco, the Bahama's, et, etc, etc.

 

[Kyriakos]

Luxemburg, switzerland

 

[Hrothbern]

Luxemburg, switzerland

And to some degree Ireland and the Netherlands as well.

Time to tacle it all

 

[mitsho]

Yeah, there's a difference between the middle countries (Switzerland, Netherlands, even Luxemburg) and the small dots (Channel Islands, Virgin Islands, etc.) who most often are part of bigger countries.

(and interesting post above, hrothbern, no comment from my side though )

 

[really]

Yeah, there's a difference between the middle countries (Switzerland, Netherlands, even Luxemburg) and the small dots (Channel Islands, Virgin Islands, etc.) who most often are part of bigger countries.

(and interesting post above, hrothbern, no comment from my side though )

A bit point of the small dots business plan is that they are not part of a bigger country*
(*When it suits them)

 

[Silurian]

So another MP has quit Labour and there is talk of two or three Conservatives quitting.

From The Guardian

Joan Ryan has become the eighth Labour MP to resign and join the breakaway Independent Group, claiming Jeremy Corbyn’s party has become “infected with the scourge of anti-Jewish racism”.

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...its-party-to-join-breakaway-independent-group

 

[Hrothbern]

So another MP has quit Labour and there is talk of two or three Conservatives quitting.

From The Guardian



https://www.theguardian.com/politic...its-party-to-join-breakaway-independent-group

With cross-party Brexit solutions in the Parliament frustrated by the Leaders going for their self- and party-preservation first above the national interest...
we see a new type of cross-party initiative emerging ?

I still do not give it much chance.... but the first polls are already there showing that during this current enthusiasm of the moment that there are many UK people willing to vote on them, although clearly less than the one-third of Labour voters that agree with their action. FPTP is a powerful mechanism to whip the flock behind the ones that control the two big political parties.

 

[Hrothbern]

A bit point of the small dots business plan is that they are not part of a bigger country*
(*When it suits them)

What is a "bit point" ?

 

[EnglishEdward]

What is a "bit point" ?

In this instance, probably a "big point"

"t" being adjacent to "g" on my keyboard.

 

[really]

What is a "bit point" ?

Autocorrect error. I can't remember what I intended to say...

EE figured it out for me.

 

[Silurian]

Three Conservatives have quit.

From ITV

MPs Heidi Allen, Anna Soubry and Sarah Wollaston have all confirmed they have left the Conservative Party and will join eight former Labour MPs who defected to form a group of independents.

https://www.itv.com/news/2019-02-20...-leave-party-and-join-ex-labour-independents/

 

[Manfred Belheim]

I'll probably be accused by someone of "conspiracy theorizing", but I feel I must point out that people do not place their signature or their age on the votes they cast.

I can't remember exactly what happens, but in the UK your voting slips are all marked with some form of ID number which is then registered against your name on a separate list. So that information is there.

 

[Hrothbern]

A bit point of the small dots business plan is that they are not part of a bigger country*
(*When it suits them)

Autocorrect error. I can't remember what I intended to say...

EE figured it out for me.

A big point.
Yes
They truly run their sovereign dots as a business and their main selling perk is that sovereign immunity of a nation. Our current building stone of the rule of law international order.

I think we should start with the dots, before tackling the smaller countries, before zooming in to the real centres of power.

Chase the Billionaires into the sea, or let them eat the local food when these dots are fully sanctioned and are only allowed to import the Walmart food range of a small village + medicins etc ofc.
And we should start with Monaco.
But that is only because of Brexit Leave campaign funder Sir Jim Ratcliffe:

UK's richest man moves to Monaco to 'save £4bn in tax'
Brexiter Sir Jim Ratcliffe’s company Ineos is reportedly working with PricewaterhouseCoopers to reduce bill

Britain’s richest man, the Brexit supporter Sir Jim Ratcliffe, and two of his key lieutenants at chemicals firm Ineos have reportedly been planning to save up to £4bn in tax after moving to Monaco.
The company, which is valued at about £35bn, is working with tax experts at PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) to create a new structure for the business to dramatically reduce the tax paid on its global revenues, according to the Sunday Times.
Ratcliffe, who has lobbied to weaken green taxes and reduce restrictions on fracking, owns 60% of Ineos, which made profits of more than £2.2bn last year and employs 18,500 people. His top two lieutenants at Ineos, Andy Currie and John Reece, each own 20% of the company worth £7bn and were also reported to be moving to Monaco and involved in the tax avoidance plan.
It emerged last year that Ratcliffe, the founder and chief executive of Ineos, was preparing to move to the tax-free principality on the Côte d’Azur, but the latest reports indicate exactly how much the three could save – putting the minimum at £440m.
Ratcliffe’s cash-saving shift abroad comes despite vocal support for Brexit in the run-up to the referendum in 2016 when he said: “Never forget that we have a decent set of cards.”

He is a real nice person:

Ineos founder and Brexit-backer Sir Jim Ratcliffe blasts EU over 'stupid' taxes
He told President Juncker Europe has the "world's most expensive energy and labour laws that are uninviting for employers"

Ineos founder and Brexit-backer Sir Jim Ratcliffe has slammed the EU over expensive regulations and "stupid" green taxes he claims are choking Europe's chemicals industry.

In an open letter to European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker, Sir Jim warned Europe is "no longer competitive" as a result of its strict energy and labour laws, which he claims are the most expensive in the world.
He added the EU is "scaring away investment with heavy green taxes", with Europe's share of the world chemical market having halved to just 15 per cent in the last 10 years.

He told President Juncker Europe has the "world's most expensive energy and labour laws that are uninviting for employers".

"Worst of all, it has green taxes that at best can be described as foolish, at worst as simply stupid as they are having the opposite effect to how they were intended," he added.
It comes just weeks after Ineos - which runs the huge Grangemouth site in Scotland - announced a mammoth investment in Europe, unveiling plans for a new £2.6b plant in Belgium.

Despite taking aim at the EU, Sir Jim - Britain's richest man - is reportedly moving to Monaco in Europe to avoid UK taxes on his £21bn fortune.
https://www.manchestereveningnews.c...news/ineos-founder-brexit-backer-sir-15820849

A bit of threatening not to invest in the EU.... an empty threat with the enormous amount of capital sloshing around needing some place to get invested...

It's part of our real struggle today: the greedy having big money attacking the rule of law and regulations with the threat to leave and not invest.

 

[Silurian]

I can't remember exactly what happens, but in the UK your voting slips are all marked with some form of ID number which is then registered against your name on a separate list. So that information is there.

The information is there but it is not used for opinion polls, just in case of double votes and the like.

From the Independent

Today, to prevent fraud, every ballot paper carries a Serial number as well as a unique official mark. This means that, although the ballot in UK elections is supposed to be secret, it is theoretically possible to trace each vote to the voter who cast it. It is, however, illegal to do so.

All ballot papers, counterfoils and related paperwork are sealed and stored securely for one year after the election. They are then destroyed.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...-election-2015-explained-voting-10227175.html

 

[Estebonrober]

A big point.
Yes
They truly run their sovereign dots as a business and their main selling perk is that sovereign immunity of a nation. Our current building stone of the rule of law international order.

I think we should start with the dots, before tackling the smaller countries, before zooming in to the real centres of power.

Chase the Billionaires into the sea, or let them eat the local food when these dots are fully sanctioned and are only allowed to import the Walmart food range of a small village + medicins etc ofc.
And we should start with Monaco.
But that is only because of Sir Jim Ratcliffe:

We need an internationally agreed way to deal with the people who dodge taxation on this level. Its spreading rapidly and it is decimating the smaller nations.

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/03/how-kleptocracy-came-to-america/580471/