[RD] Clinton vs. Trump - USA Presidential race.

[innonimatu]

538's blog has flipped to 55% Trump as Ohio goes to Trump. With leads in FL and NC, Trump has a clear path to (exactly) 270 via NH and one EV from Maine.

Those 538 guys are a joke. They keep pretending that they can "guess" (or better yet, assign odds as it they were doing some kind of accurate science) the outcome of an election, after the actual vote was held and the results are announced? Why do people even give them attention and therefore money? I guess it's not information, it's entertainment...

 

[BirraImperial]

Virginia called for Clinton, according to 538

 

[Thedrin]

What's the hold up in Florida?

 

[Lord Shadow]

People aren't voting for him because he's nominally republican as much as in spite of it

They don't care about conservatism, they care about racism

btw I don't think condone means what you think it mean

con·done
(kən-dōn′)
tr.v. con·doned, con·don·ing, con·dones
To overlook, forgive, or disregard (an offense) without protest or censure.

They support those radical views or at the very least don't consider them a problem.

"It's okay to screw over all those minorities and nuke places as Donald sees fit, if the country prospers. As long as he doesn't grab any butts without consent, of course!"

 

[BirraImperial]

Those 538 guys are a joke. They keep pretending that they can "guess" (or better yet, assign odds as it they were doing some kind of accurate science) the outcome of an election, after the actual vote was held and the results are announced? Why do people even give them attention and therefore money? I guess it's not information, it's entertainment...

Those are projections based on their data, it's not an indicative of the actual results...

 

[Camikaze]

Wisconsin appears to have become more concerning than Michigan, because Clinton hasn't received the lead she needs from Milwaukee. In Michigan, there still does appear to be Detroit and the surrounds outstanding.

Clinton can afford to lose Wisconsin, so long as she keeps New Hampshire, Pennsylvania & Michigan. If Trump wins Michigan, New Hampshire won't save Clinton.

 

[schlaufuchs]

Wisconsin appears to have become more concerning than Michigan, because Clinton hasn't received the lead she needs from Milwaukee. In Michigan, there still does appear to be Detroit and the surrounds outstanding.

Still has half the precincts to go in Madison, on the bright side.

 

[Lohrenswald]

re: condone you were right and I was wrong

 

[JollyRoger]

Those 538 guys are a joke. They keep pretending that they can "guess" (or better yet, assign odds as it they were doing some kind of accurate science) the outcome of an election, after the actual vote was held and the results are announced? Why do people even give them attention and therefore money? I guess it's not information, it's entertainment...

They are doing the same thing you and I are doing with a less half assed method.

 

[Kyriakos]

Hm, did the NYT call the presidency for Trump, then? (lol, i am just a foreigner, don't know if any of this matters at all )

 

[Light Cleric]

Wisconsin appears to have become more concerning than Michigan, because Clinton hasn't received the lead she needs from Milwaukee. In Michigan, there still does appear to be Detroit and the surrounds outstanding.

Clinton can afford to lose Wisconsin, so long as she keeps New Hampshire, Pennsylvania & Michigan. If Trump wins Michigan, New Hampshire won't save Clinton.

There is a legit scenario now that could end in a 269-269 tie with the House casting the winning vote. What a goddamn train wreck that would be.

 

[Camikaze]

Hm, did the NYT call the presidency for Trump, then? (lol, i am just a foreigner, don't know if any of this matters at all )

I think calling the election as a whole involves calling states totalling 270+ electoral votes. So although they are showing a 90%+ chance for Trump on the basis of current votes in Michigan, Wisconsin & Pennsylvania, they won't actually make a 'call' on the election as a whole until they can actually project the states.

 

[innonimatu]

They are doing the same thing you and I are doing with a less half assed method.

They're not doing the same. We're guessing, they pretend to be doing science with a thing that is just not amenable to science. If they could actually predict an election accurately (and giving odds in percentages implies accuracy) then you won't need an actual election...

 

[Kyriakos]

Well, Fox says (calls) Trump wins NC.

 

[FriendlyFire]

So uh yeah that's kinda scary. Pretty sure if the swing states hold and Hillary loses any of those she has no path left to victory. 538 has Michigan as a toss-up last I checked.
The shocking thing to me was how close Viriginia was. It should have NEVER been remotely in play, it was Clinton +5-6 for months.

You had one Job america, ONE JOB !

 

[Phrossack]

Are politics in the US so robotically binary that Republicans would vote anyone to office as long as the candidate is nominally Republican?

Yes. You cannot truly understand how much White America lives in its own separate bubble of reality without living in White America. It defies belief. Decades of politicians, talk show hosts, and FOX indoctrinating them has led them to believe that they are in a cosmic struggle of good and evil against liberals and anything liberals like. To the point that they completely reversed their views on international politics, trade, and the acceptable treatment of veterans overnight because the biggest compulsive liar in history said so.

I really can't fathom how the "conservative" option, in the general sense of the word, is voting for a random rich loon who up-ended the conservative party, as opposed to an actual politician who at least has some experience in office. I'm sure Hillary has flaws and all, but voting in democracy often constitutes picking the lesser evil, and I really can't understand how said Trump could not be considered the greater evil. Are Americans taking democracy so lightly they'll vote any rich idiot with radical ideas just to spite the other party? Is their hubris such that they truly believe, in their heart, that "it [fascism] can't happen here"?

Yes, and yes. Absolutely.

What's really ****ed up is that the aforementioned xenophobia and widespread intolerance doesn't trigger any alarms in the general population. Promises of making the lives of Muslim Americans hell? Literally walling off the southern border? Encouraging gung ho use of nuclear weapons? Oh, that's cool. It's comparatively inane stuff like the use of an email server or a mere dozen cases of sexual assault that can bring down a campaign to its knees at times.

I have to say that as a non-American, I've found this whole political race frankly baffling. Maybe Trump is too stupid to do anything drastic, but this kind of societal mentality really is the melting pot of tyrants, and unless changed, we may very well see the emergence of the next great dictator right there in the United States, in the near future.

The US and most of Europe are sleepwalking towards a series of catastrophes. People cannot learn from the past mistakes of others, and don't realize what's going on in the big picture until it's too late, if even then.

 

[CaptainF]

I think calling the election as a whole involves calling states totalling 270+ electoral votes. So although they are showing a 90%+ chance for Trump on the basis of current votes in Michigan, Wisconsin & Pennsylvania, they won't actually make a 'call' on the election as a whole until they can actually project the states.

It has been rather anxiety inducing, watching the chances swing from 80% Clinton to over 90% Trump...

 

[Camikaze]

There is a legit scenario now that could end in a 269-269 tie with the House casting the winning vote. What a goddamn train wreck that would be.

Then faithless electors become concern, e.g. the guy in Washington who has said he will not cast a vote for Clinton, no matter how the state votes.

A tie seems unlikely, though, because in the event that Trump gets Wisconsin & New Hampshire, he probably also gets Maine's 2nd congressional district.

 

[Berzerker]

Trump is scummy, but Hillary deserves to lose

~3 decades of trade agreements bleeding jobs has set up a 'fair trade' Republican for the WH (and the markets are panicking, all those investments in business based on those deals)

oh yeah, the talking heads at msnbc say its coming down to Michigan

the popular vote is 39m for Trump and 36m for Hillary

 

[Phrossack]

Trump is scummy, but Hillary deserves to lose

~3 decades of trade agreements bleeding jobs has set up a 'fair trade' Republican for the WH (and the markets are panicking, all those investments in business based on those deals)

oh yeah, the talking heads at msnbc say its coming down to Michigan

the popular vote is 39m for Trump and 36m for Hillary

Enjoy your trade wars and skyrocketing prices for goods. Manufacturing jobs left for good because Americans will not, and cannot, compete with machines and third-world workers on starvation wages. They're not coming back.