ΑΦΑΙΚ, El Machinae is knowledgeable in this subject due to general (?) ties to his own work and education (certainly far far more than laymen) ; it's not at all strange that he can comment from "inside", so to speak. Of course this isn't a plea to authority, but we can all agree that no one can have insight without relevant studies (they may still be wrong, but that's rarely for laymen to judge, at least not easily or casually).
As for thinking that lockdowns or other mass restrictive measures can be shown to be a net positive - how would you go about doing that? You can't time-travel or visit a different cosmos in a multiverse where they weren't used. One can only try to compare different countries/regions at the same time, which may or may not be conclusive (eg Sweden had very little measures, and very few dead per million).
I'd like to hope that, in a future pandemic, restrictions to movement/liberties would be on a voluntary basis, with information about which groups are in a high risk (so they can make an informed decision on self-isolating). I fear, however, that this won't happen at all, much like it didn't happen for covid either.
