Number of infections in NL is increasing since July. I guess most of all because of mental and social fatigue of especially younger people. Analyses are done based on contact tracing, but with 75% of new cases untraceable everything is a guess.
Here below a graph of how it spreads from July 14 to September 22 over the age groups. The darker the red color, the more cases.
I added a graph from July 14-September 22 where you see the number of confirmed cases per 100,000 to give a feel besides those colors for the totals per week. Going from 0.6 on July 14 to 12.9 cases on Sep 22 per 100,000. The dotted line an alert level at 7.0.
Contact tracing meanwhile overwhelmed because most people asking to be tested have the ordinary cold and flu incl ofc also the allergy cases.
What you can see is that the 20-24 agegroup is the main train, and since this week the spreading into older age groups starts getting nasty. From mobility data it shows that the last weeks more people are using public transport again and work more at their offices. The Health authority has adviced sharper again that people should work from home, despite the social need many people feel to go to office again.
From other info from our national dasboard you can see that we will likely next week exceed the alert level for number of carehouses with infections,
Death rate still low at around 5 per day, but this is going to change in a couple of weeks.
I have no good news to add.
For the last week column the total week cases are:
0-4 year olds: 24 cases
5-9: 96 cases
10-14: 504 cases
15-19: 1,331 cases
20-24: 2,118 cases
25-29: 1,494 cases
30-34: 1.094 cases
35-39: 915 cases
to give a feel for the colors
EDIT
to make the situation description complete as of now
Hereby a graph showing the official
estimate of the total infected people since the outbreak.
For the first peak this is mainly based on the percentage of people having anti-bodies. From June onward it is based on hospotalisations, confirmed cases of people asking for tests, sewers, and surveys at GP level.
We are now a factor 2.7 away from the first peak and are at the current rate of growth 3-5 weeks away from the same total. Whereby we have likely relatively less elderly infected and ICU duration time is lower with higher survival rates from what was learned so far on treatments.
Certainly a blast from the past.
