Zardnaar
Deity
They're safe enough where they are. Their boats not so much.
Oh well.
If you can afford it holing up in Fiji/Samoa/Vanuatu/Cook Islands etc great idea.
Coronavirus 4
- Thread starter amadeus
- Start date
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They're safe enough where they are. Their boats not so much.
Oh well.
If you can afford it holing up in Fiji/Samoa/Vanuatu/Cook Islands etc great idea.
tuckerkao
King
- Joined
- Feb 17, 2010
- Messages
- 729
USA is still catching up Spain despite both nations are both facing the huge spikes of the new cases.
I agree how you rank the top 1 dozen of the nations instead of the top ten.
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Ive been data diving and thought id share what i learned. This graph shows the number of tests being conducted in the UK during the pandemic up until the present. Basically, when the virus was at its most potent i.e. during April, we were doing around 15,000 tests per day. This was also the month when we had our largest spike - averaging around 5,000 positive cases per day (33%). Now we are doing 200,000 tests per day. And our confirmed cases are around 3,000. Thats only 1.5% of tests coming back positive, compared to 33% back in April. So when the media try and scare you by suggesting that the virus is as bad as it was during April, dont be fooled. Using a similar ratio on tests, daily cases now should be around 66,000 PER DAY before we are anywhere near what things were like in April. So we are nowhere near that level yet. And the media are yet again demonstrating their sensationalism and scaremongering. Just food for thought. You should be able to do similar comparisons in other countries where the virus has been around for a while.
Unfortunately, in the USA it doesn't work out so nicely. In my region of Illinois (more than half a million people, but less than a million), we've been running at about 10% of tests coming back positive for several weeks. Testing is up since the spring, but it isn't up that much. (In the spring, statewide we had about 15% positive test results; the state is lower now, but my region isn't.) We are still not anywhere close to catching all the cases we have. Our latest round of preventive rules seems at last to be helping, but I'm not optimistic about things staying that way if the governor lets restaurants and bars have indoor service again.
I think in the states you have to look at it on a state by state basis. Because geographically and numerically its very different to a country like the UK. You can probably get reliable data in New York though, for instance. Ultimately though it comes down to whether the state has really gone all in on testing or not. But the USA has been pretty good on that score, along with the UK - testing around 300K per million. Its quite uneven though. Alaska and New York have the best ratio with approx 600,000 per million. And Colorado and Pennsylvania down at 145Kish.
EnglishEdward
Deity
Quite so. I find testing and tested positive numbers confusing for both over time and country comparisons. Media sensationalism is not helpful.
So I quote death/million pop because I think it is the most reliable. Excess death comparisons ought to be, but those have their own complications.
Yes - it is, quite right. I think this whole episode is a fantastic learning curve in how statistics can be misleading. They always require the interpretation of a human in order to make much sense of them. And even then you have to either trust that persons interpretation of them or do your own research and form your own opinion. Sadly i feel i have to do my own research these days because the media either dont interpret the data correctly or just ignore it entirely. Hence my post. Share the love and all that
FriendlyFire
Codex WMDicanious
Its fine as long as you know your rolling the dice just like the US and some other countries has done.
At least the UK is carrying out extensive testing and the older population are taking it seriously, but eyes wide open at the risk your running.
Narz
keeping it real
Would be better if it were per-capita.
It is interesting that by now literally 1 in 1000 peruvians has died from the virus... (31K of a total population of 31 million).
That is quite impressive, compared to (for example) the Uk rate being between 1/5 and 1/4 of that. Which is still impressive, of course, 1/4000 people having died isn't normal.
That is quite impressive, compared to (for example) the Uk rate being between 1/5 and 1/4 of that. Which is still impressive, of course, 1/4000 people having died isn't normal.
Ironsided
Flower of happiness
- Joined
- May 25, 2012
- Messages
- 1,267
Yes, and a colour scale that made sense.
Zardnaar
Deity
Restrictions lifted in 3 hours
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national...to-level-2-and-rest-of-new-zealand-to-level-1
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national...to-level-2-and-rest-of-new-zealand-to-level-1
EnglishEdward
Deity
There is an interesting article here:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-...rchers/?utm_source=pocket-newtab-global-en-GB
As far as I can understand it:
The underlying logic is that the volume of the initial viral infection is significant not just in terms of the likelihood of
infection but in in that higher infection loads mean that the immune systems either doe not have time to get working
or overacts killing the patients. Masks don't stop infection well, but reduce the load and severity of the infection.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-...rchers/?utm_source=pocket-newtab-global-en-GB
As far as I can understand it:
The underlying logic is that the volume of the initial viral infection is significant not just in terms of the likelihood of
infection but in in that higher infection loads mean that the immune systems either doe not have time to get working
or overacts killing the patients. Masks don't stop infection well, but reduce the load and severity of the infection.
sendos
Immortal
Victoria now down to 14 cases, 2 deaths. Restrictions will be revised next week.
amadeus
burning out his fuse out here alone
I think I read way too much coronavirus stuff today. Ended up giving myself a panic attack over it. 
It’s a four-day weekend here in Japan and so the testing is down, etc. etc. there’s a whole truckload of complaints I have but I’ll keep them off here.
Anyway, as @EnglishEdward points out with his article there is a bit of a silver lining I guess in that indeed it seems there is a scientific basis for supporting masks. I’ve been wearing one every time I go out, no matter how trivial the outing.
It’s a four-day weekend here in Japan and so the testing is down, etc. etc. there’s a whole truckload of complaints I have but I’ll keep them off here.Anyway, as @EnglishEdward points out with his article there is a bit of a silver lining I guess in that indeed it seems there is a scientific basis for supporting masks. I’ve been wearing one every time I go out, no matter how trivial the outing.
Using a similar ratio on test is also a critical statistical error, though, making your 66k/day figure completely meaningless.
Whether a test is positive and whether a test is made in the first place is highly correlated, because tests are not made on a random sample of the population but on people who are suspected to some degree to carry the virus.
To get comparable numbers, you would need to define consistent test criteria and exclude the test not matching the criteria from the calculation. As the statistical coverage of the pandemic has been abysmal nobody is doing that, of course.
I somewhat agree with the conclusion that it is not as bad as it was in April, but how big the gap is, is pure speculation without any hard numbers to back it up.
Hopefully they have used this time to adopt and resource better contact tracing, in which case we might be able to see the back of this thing save for occasional quarantine related flare-ups.
New South Wales recording its first 0 day since about 76 days ago in June, when a few cases got in from Victoria. Two cases identified within returned international quarantine, and no cases found in the community. Donut day!
And all done via good contact tracing, without a lockdown.
This is a relatively low testing day, just the 8000 tests, so we'll see how it looks tomorrow, but it's been flirting with a zero day for a few weeks now. There's been no net increase in unknown source cases since August 28 (3 and a half weeks ago), it's -1 in net terms since then as previously unknown ones have gradually been linked.
And all done via good contact tracing, without a lockdown.
This is a relatively low testing day, just the 8000 tests, so we'll see how it looks tomorrow, but it's been flirting with a zero day for a few weeks now. There's been no net increase in unknown source cases since August 28 (3 and a half weeks ago), it's -1 in net terms since then as previously unknown ones have gradually been linked.
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Today's latest 24-hour reported death toll was 429.
International statisticians now say that Argentina's official death toll of over 12,000 lags the real one by a few thousand, which, being roughly 25%, would mean that any and all official statistics on this are of no use, because there can be a delay of up to two weeks in reporting deaths so the evolution and spread of the virus is more or less untraceable.
Also, besides the federal government having recently defaulted on part of its sovereign debt, five provinces have individually defaulted on theirs already.
On top of that it's already heavily rumoured that they're going to make 2021, or at least the first half, also a ‘school-at-home’ year. Mussolini-style corporatism rears its ugly head again, with the eceutive deciding it by decree, with the support of lifelong trade unionists who do not actually do the jobs of those they claim to defend.
I am irked.
And I'm just reading official statements as to how (quote) ‘an inclusive, open, free Internet has its risks’ (endquote). tl;dr in the name of morality they want to force censorship.
I am now utterly pissed.
International statisticians now say that Argentina's official death toll of over 12,000 lags the real one by a few thousand, which, being roughly 25%, would mean that any and all official statistics on this are of no use, because there can be a delay of up to two weeks in reporting deaths so the evolution and spread of the virus is more or less untraceable.
Also, besides the federal government having recently defaulted on part of its sovereign debt, five provinces have individually defaulted on theirs already.
On top of that it's already heavily rumoured that they're going to make 2021, or at least the first half, also a ‘school-at-home’ year. Mussolini-style corporatism rears its ugly head again, with the eceutive deciding it by decree, with the support of lifelong trade unionists who do not actually do the jobs of those they claim to defend.
I am irked.
And I'm just reading official statements as to how (quote) ‘an inclusive, open, free Internet has its risks’ (endquote). tl;dr in the name of morality they want to force censorship.
I am now utterly pissed.
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