Could it be happening?!

[kochman]

Hell no. He's out until 2020 at the very least. GWB scandal, Sandy money used in a campaign add, failing in his #1 goal of pension reform, the "surprise" 300 million dollar budget shortfall due to cutting income tax on people making 1 million plus. I could go on and on.

I don't think any of those will matter to the GOPers, who would nominate him. He gets the cop out of working in NJ...
You're giving a NJ democrat appeal here. GOP considers NJ a lost cause.

 

[illram]

They're going to run a semi-sane candidate. The RNC altered the 2016 primary debate structure to limit debaters to more realistic candidates.

Rubio "where's my water" has no chance. Jindal was also cast away after a similarly miserable post State of the Union speech. Cruz is the type of candidate they want out of the primary debates. Paul Ryan is the tall dark and handsome not-insane smooth talking type who could make a run in a primary but ultimately is probably a serial killer who lies about his marathon times. Rand Paul is tainted by his dad and is also probably the type they want out of the debates.

Mitt is... Mitt. Seriously you want to try him again?

I think Jeb Bush or Christie are the safest bets for them, honestly.

 

[KMRblue1027]

I don't think any of those will matter to the GOPers, who would nominate him. He gets the cop out of working in NJ...
You're giving a NJ democrat appeal here. GOP considers NJ a lost cause.

I have no doubt he could win the nomination but he'd be done if the Dems field a competent candidate, way too much ammo. If he serves out his term and goes the public speaker and fundraiser root until 2020 or 2024 he'd have a much better shot. He just needs time and a public apology.

 

[bhsup]

I would love to see Jeb run as well, but I think it even less likely that he will jump into the race than Mitt doing so.

 

[kochman]

Paul Ryan is the tall dark and handsome not-insane smooth talking type who could make a run in a primary but ultimately is probably a serial killer who lies about his marathon times. Rand Paul is tainted by his dad and is also probably the type they want out of the debates.

I think Jeb Bush or Christie are the safest bets for them, honestly.

Re: Ryan - Hahahahahahahahaha, just because he has a cold stare and a thick set of brows.
Re: Paul - I don't think his dad will taint him. The RNC doesn't like him, but he may have traction.
Re: Bush... ? I think that name is tainted.

I have no doubt he could win the nomination but he'd be done if the Dems field a competent candidate, way too much ammo. If he serves out his term and goes the public speaker and fundraiser root until 2020 or 2024 he'd have a much better shot. He just needs time and a public apology.

Oh, well, we're just talking about who they would field.
As far as winning, the GOP is great at presenting candidates that suck, only slight better at it than the Dems.

 

[illram]

Honestly I don't see the NJ thing as really haunting Christie nor do I see democrats as effectively using it, since the democratic political machine is pretty weak-sauce when it comes to that sort of game. They lack the ruthlessness of the Turd Blossom. The Republicans are way better at muckraking. Look at the ground work they have already laid for Hillary with Benghazi. Do we want Christie-gate vs. Benghazi gate? I would bet on the GOP spin machine winning that mudslinging contest any day.

Honestly the GOP's biggest weakness is their own indecisiveness and weakness when it comes to fielding a true moderate contender. Which they are trying to address with the debate process changes, but that might not be enough to quickly tamp down the inevitable media frenzy that follows whatever insane person wins the next Iowa caucus. Christie's biggest enemy is the Republican Spin Machine, working against him.

Jeb's a sweet innocent flower compared to all that.

 

[kochman]

Do we want Christie-gate vs. Benghazi gate? I would bet on the GOP spin machine winning that mudslinging contest any day.

As they should... her only challenge as a leader and she bungled it (more handled how she discussed it, "what difference does it make?")

 

[Antilogic]

Actually, yes, I loved that parody. But you guys are not mentioning alternative candidates, you're just saying no Mitt. Who is out there, if not Mitt, to lead the GOP to victory in 2016?

My long-standing bet was on Governor Scott Walker of Wisconsin for the GOP nomination, which I posted over in the problems thread, although I am starting to think Rand Paul has a serious shot. For Walker, I think he's in a good position to be everyone's first or second choice--business guys will like him for the anti-union stuff in Wisconsin, he's a bit closer to the social conservatives than other establishment guys so if Santorum and Huckabee implode or don't run he'll be there to pick up their support, he's not on the tea party s*** list right now, he's from a region the GOP wants to be competitive in a presidential election, etc. For Rand Paul, I can see him uniting the paleocon, libertarian, and maybe tea wings of the GOP once the super crazy people like Cruz implode.

Jeb Bush might be able to hack it.

I think Jeb is too far out of politics to really hack it now, the last time he was on a ballot was 2002. Hillary Clinton is struggling in interviews and stuff and at least she ran a national campaign in 2008.

I don't think any of those will matter to the GOPers, who would nominate him. He gets the cop out of working in NJ...
You're giving a NJ democrat appeal here. GOP considers NJ a lost cause.

I think Christie's main appeal was electability due to the crossover Democrats (i.e. broadly liked and electable but not the #1 choice of GOP groups), and he's largely lost those as the result of the recent scandals in New Jersey. Plus, the federal prosecutors are still looking into the potential corruption even if the bridge thing is going nowhere.

And if he doesn't have that electability, then why would elements of the GOP settle for him when they could get someone that's at least the first choice of a few of their constituent groups?

Personally I think Rubio has the best shot.

I think Rubio has lost a lot of favor with the base over immigration stuff, maybe too much. Could be a good pick for VP.



Regarding Paul Ryan, he's going for the chair of the budget committee and I'd bet he won't be a presidential candidate. He might go for House leadership (people were pushing him to go for the Whip position when Eric Cantor lost) or a statewide office in a few years.

 

[IglooDame]

I am not familiar enough with Jeb Bush to speak much about him one way or the other (what little I've heard is that he's reasonably competent and reasonably moderate). I confess that I'd vote against him purely because of his last name. I can't think of a better way to demonstrate to the planet that the US has a very definitive ruling class is to offer a second Bush/Clinton election.

 

[Azale]

They've been talking about the bridge scandal in NJ nonstop on MSNBC for 10 years now I'm pretty sure. The Dems are plenty capable of engineering controversies to their advantage, and Christie is intent on supplying them. I think he is severely damaged goods.

Cruz is going to win the GOP primary. He's not white but not too ethnic, he really hates Obama, he really hates the poors, and he hasnt said anything too incriminating on rape yet. He'll gain early momentum as a popular tea party figure in the earliest voting states like Iowa and might try to slightly moderate so the GOP bosses see him winning as a not-too-bad fait accompli. He's from Texas so he can pretend this state is still run well and take some credit for it. In addition, he can claim familiarity with the immigration problem and say how we should construct a giant wall around Mexico to cut the deficit and defeat obamacare benghazi etc etc.

 

[kochman]

I think Christie's main appeal was electability due to the crossover Democrats (i.e. broadly liked and electable but not the #1 choice of GOP groups), and he's largely lost those as the result of the recent scandals in New Jersey. Plus, the federal prosecutors are still looking into the potential corruption even if the bridge thing is going nowhere.

And if he doesn't have that electability, then why would elements of the GOP settle for him when they could get someone that's at least the first choice of a few of their constituent groups?

The GOP never seems to care about getting crossover votes, if you haven't noticed.
They nominate on the basis of mainly closed primaries which gets them more conservative candidates.

 

[Antilogic]

I think the shortened debate and primary cycle will favor the 2012 "flavor of the month"-style candidates a bit more because it won't give them time to completely implode like Bachmann, Cain, Gingrich, and Perry all did.

 

[illram]

Oooh Scott Walker. Forgot about him. Interesting candidate. The leftwing hates him with a burning passion. Not totally insane, but has tea party street cred. Has some issues with his "250,000 jobs" promise, (an elder Bush "no new taxes" moment for him) and the campaign finance scandal but he is not weird and is normal looking enough to survive the fickle Presidential primary season, perhaps.

 

[Antilogic]

The GOP never seems to care about getting crossover votes, if you haven't noticed.
They nominate on the basis of mainly closed primaries which gets them more conservative candidates.

Parts of the base, especially the tea types, don't care. I'll agree with that.

But that's also part of the reason why I think he will struggle. People may like his style, but he has to compete with other further-right candidates and unless he has the backing of the big money establishment I don't think he'll make it through the primary.

Oooh Scott Walker. Forgot about him. Interesting candidate. The leftwing hates him with a burning passion. Not totally insane, but has tea party street cred. Has some issues with his "250,000 jobs" promise, (an elder Bush "no new taxes" moment for him) and the campaign finance scandal but he is not weird and normal looking enough to survive the fickle Presidential primary season, perhaps.

If he survives the fall election, I'd consider him a first tier candidate. He's running a bit closer than expected, though, so this bet may falter.

 

[Gucumatz]

Both Rubio and Cruz would lose the Hispanic vote not just by campaigning but by who they are. Rubio would at least stem the changing Cuban demographic vote though which has been shifting more and more democratic and is not a bad choice for VP. Neither have a chance and would be near instant victories (statistically) for the Democratic candidate.

The best current shot to win the Presidency is still Christie and even then, if Hillary runs, she wins. The election so far is shaping up to be fairly simple. The only way the Republicans can really win is if the Democratic party shoots itself in the foot by trying to go with a flavor of the month candidate over some of the more established candidates.

 

[Gucumatz]

Both Rubio and Cruz would lose the Hispanic vote not just by campaigning but by who they are. Rubio would at least stem the changing Cuban demographic vote though which has been shifting more and more democratic and is not a bad choice for VP. Neither have a chance and would be near instant victories (statistically) for the Democratic candidate.

The best current shot to win the Presidency is still Christie and even then, if Hillary runs, she wins. The election so far is shaping up to be fairly simple. The only way the Republicans can really win is if the Democratic party shoots itself in the foot by trying to go with a flavor of the month candidate over some of the more established candidates.

 

[bhsup]

They've been talking about the bridge scandal in NJ nonstop on MSNBC for 10 years now I'm pretty sure.

Yeah, but nobody watches MSNBC!

 

[Wrymouth3]

I won't be surprised if Rubio ends up with a serious look on his global warming platform. For those who don't know, Rubio has never changed his opinion once on the fact that global warming is actually being caused by people who "advocate advanced hypothetical science" (I also have absolutely no idea what that is). He has also seriously advocated that if there is climate change occuring, it's caused by people who propose theories that hurt the economy in turn. Otherwise, he's a normal conservative that has an undying hatred of African-Americans and also thinks the economy collapsed because of people making too much money on minimum wage .

 

[kochman]

Otherwise, he's a normal conservative that has an undying hatred of African-Americans and also thinks the economy collapsed because of people making too much money on minimum wage .

What a stupid thing to say.

 

[Light Cleric]

I'm not sure how you can stack Christie up next to a Clinton and say Christie is automatically out because of scandals but the litany of Clinton dirty laundry is a-okay(I'm not talking about the sexual stuff, either). Is there a statue of limitations for when stuff stops mattering?

Also, I've gone over in the past the stuff that MSNBC runs with and been wrong, either by ignorance or malice. That doesn't mean people are actually listening. Cable news sucks and I've been much better off since I turned it off.

This is hopeful news! Romney is by far the most beatable candidate the GOP could possibly come up with. Maybe Dick Nixon, since he's just as bad plus he's dead, but otherwise Mitt's the MAN!

So you honestly think Sarah Palin and Ted Cruz are harder to beat than Romney?

My long-standing bet was on Governor Scott Walker of Wisconsin for the GOP nomination, which I posted over in the problems thread, although I am starting to think Rand Paul has a serious shot. For Walker, I think he's in a good position to be everyone's first or second choice--business guys will like him for the anti-union stuff in Wisconsin, he's a bit closer to the social conservatives than other establishment guys so if Santorum and Huckabee implode or don't run he'll be there to pick up their support, he's not on the tea party s*** list right now, he's from a region the GOP wants to be competitive in a presidential election, etc. For Rand Paul, I can see him uniting the paleocon, libertarian, and maybe tea wings of the GOP once the super crazy people like Cruz implode.
.

I've been expecting Walker for a while now for the reasons you mentioned.