In case of acute insomnia: Federal Diet Election 2017

[yung.carl.jung]

Bavarians will always vote CSU. Not least because many locally important CSU politicians would be Greens or SPD in other states.

Idk man, people also thoughts Bavaria will always have a CSU majority government, but they aren't getting the numbers they are used to.. Also, just being blunt here, a big part of the clientele is literally on the brink of death.

 

[Terxpahseyton]

On the other hand, the CDU's clientele has been on the brink of death since decades

 

[GoodSarmatian]

Hmm, the SPD is once again the largest party in terms of membership.
That's pretty concerning for the leadership, as many new members are apparently just joining to vote against the grand coalition once the negotiations are over.

I've been considering to join Die Linke for quite some time now, but maybe I should go to the SPD instead.

 

[Ryika]

The SPD is looking into a troublesome future anyway.

Its current course leads nowhere, but even the people who are trying to correct the course are aiming towards a vision of the future that is not going to be a bright one either.

Because both parts of the party either miss or ignore that a significant part of the working class voters of the so-called Arbeiterpartei are not looking for a party that pushes progressive values and a European identity, but are rather looking for safety, order, and a strong national identity. Bringing the people back together under a shared set of values will be a very difficult task.

 

[yung.carl.jung]

a significant part of the working class voters of the so-called Arbeiterpartei are not looking for a party that pushes progressive values and a European identity, but are rather looking for safety, order, and a strong national identity.

I just love how you say this as if it was self-evident, as if you are speaking for the collective of all the unheard workers in Germany, when realistically you've worked like a year or two tops in your entire life and you're so, so removed from these people, yet adamant on knowing what their innermost desires are. Made my day.

 

[Ryika]

I just love how you say this as if it was self-evident, as if you are speaking for the collective of all the unheard workers in Germany, when realistically you've worked like a year or two tops in your entire life and you're so, so removed from these people, yet adamant on knowing what their innermost desires are. Made my day.

Not sure what upper class life you think I have lived, but here's a basic rundown of my past:

- I was born into a working class family, into a working class area right next to an immigrant-heavy area with a large amount of unemployment.
- I went to school with other children from working class families and said immigrant-heavy area, right in the middle of the Ruhrgebiet.
- Then I got some mental problems that prevented me from working an actual job; but during the recovery time I've taken part in less demanding working arrangements where I again worked mostly among older people who came from the working class and had lost their job at some point, but were too old to find a new job.
- Now I've got a job where people from the working class, as well as people in long-term unemployment and refugees are my daily clients.
- In the last years, I've spent quite a bit of time reading online forums, and have found that the same sentiments that I've heard here, are mimicked there.

So I think that yes, I'm rather qualified to talk about the people here.
I'm not saying "the whole working class" is like that, but a part of it certainly is.

So what's your story, and why did my post trigger that kind of response from you?

 

[yung.carl.jung]

I don't know your family, nor your surroundings, hence why I made no speculation about that in my post, that's not my style. What I do know about you is that you left highschool a few years ago and are now attempting to represent that part of the working class disenchanted with the SPD. If you're genuinely interested in "my story" as you call it I'll definitely tell you. My family is split among political lines, but we still somehow managed not to kill each others, even though it was quite intense at times What is your job by the way? I think it's admirable you're working with refugees and the unemployed, are you working for the Arbeitsamt or something in that vein?

 

[Ryika]

By God, no. I've had to deal with Arbeitsamt for long enough during the time I wasn't able to work a proper job to know that that's a place I would never want to work in.

I'm working for an organization that is part of the... I have no idea what it's called in English, but the German term is Freie Wohlfahrtspflege. Thankfully, our work is meant to provide help to people who need it, not to treat people as numbers that must be manipulated to make statistics look good. Given my controversial status in this forums, I don't think I want to say much more than that though.

But on the actual topic... I don't see how my age is important. It's not like I'm naively trying to come up with deep and complicated explanations for what is happening. If simply repeating the things people around me - who largely were SPD voters in the past as you'd expect in NRW - have to say about these things is not an actual representation of what a part of the voterbase thinks about this topic, then what is? Do they have to tell you directly? Well, you can come and look, and they'll probably be rather open about their opinions.

 

[Hrothbern]

By God, no. I've had to deal with Arbeitsamt for long enough during the time I wasn't able to work a proper job to know that that's a place I would never want to work in.

I'm working for an organization that is part of the... I have no idea what it's called in English, but the German term is Freie Wohlfahrtspflege. Thankfully, our work is meant to provide help to people who need it, not to treat people as numbers that must be manipulated to make statistics look good. Given my controversial status in this forums, I don't think I want to say much more than that though.

But on the actual topic... I don't see how my age is important. It's not like I'm naively trying to come up with deep and complicated explanations for what is happening. If simply repeating the things people around me - who largely were SPD voters in the past as you'd expect in NRW - have to say about these things is not an actual representation of what a part of the voterbase thinks about this topic, then what is? Do they have to tell you directly? Well, you can come and look, and they'll probably be rather open about their opinions.

I understand you are helping labor class people in your function.

It is also very refreshing for your mindset just to be one of them, work between them, feel in your stomach how people with low education, low intelligence, find their way in life and society, from within.
Just somer stupid work in a shift system, with nice and stupid colleagues, narrowminded department heads, abuse of power all the time, swallowing your pride all the time, etc, etc.
Once you have done that for a while, perhaps as temp labor, you have a treasure chest of practical reference for your further life, especially for theoretical opinions.

No critisism at all... just advice

 

[carlosMM]

Idk man, people also thoughts Bavaria will always have a CSU majority government, but they aren't getting the numbers they are used to.. Also, just being blunt here, a big part of the clientele is literally on the brink of death.

Majority government?
I, for one, always expected them to fall below absolute majority once in a while. But currently, I can't see any other party gaining a majority over the CSU.
Not even if 50% of the voters die off. The middle age folks are already on board, mostly, and the young are well off, bright future, happy - and keep getting told that this is the CSU's "fault". They will continue to vote for them until the economy goes South - and that's not gonna happen soon. Those dissatisfied vote AfD, and that's all the voters the CSU is going to lose.
(Not that there isn't hope, but it is slim).

 

[uppi]

Majority government?
I, for one, always expected them to fall below absolute majority once in a while. But currently, I can't see any other party gaining a majority over the CSU.
Not even if 50% of the voters die off. The middle age folks are already on board, mostly, and the young are well off, bright future, happy - and keep getting told that this is the CSU's "fault". They will continue to vote for them until the economy goes South - and that's not gonna happen soon. Those dissatisfied vote AfD, and that's all the voters the CSU is going to lose.
(Not that there isn't hope, but it is slim).

There are a lot of voters in Bavaria that are likely to vote CSU, alright. But they're only willing to tolerate so much before they consider voting for alternative (conservative-ish) parties. With the AfD having significant support, the game has changed. There isn't an intrinsic majority anymore that is the CSU's to lose. Their right flank isn't secure anymore and they might have to decide which way to move, possibly losing their big tent status.

Barring a freak event, there won't be Bavarian government against the CSU anytime soon. Especially because the other parties in Bavaria unites nothing but loathing of the CSU. But they might have trouble finding the partners for the coalitions they will have to make in the future. Their position is not as comfortable as it used to be.

 

[innonimatu]

I was mentioning this rare piece of news in another thread, but I guess it's even more relevant here. A Look at Germany's Extremely Unequal Wealth Distribution.

Why haven't german workers realized they're getting cheated out of their share? The country has a surprisingly passive political life, compared with, say, France!

 

[ori]

mostly because unions have been fine with (comparatively) low wage increases for like ever, in part in my view a function of their leadership almost always being part of coporate boards and being less than independent with regards to the interests of their own clientele (plus being shielded from the emergence of competing unions either through custom or laws) - as such telling their people that while things might be better they are improving all the time (even if they aren't) and in any case job security for those having jobs trumps all other considerations.
Also of course statistics do not necessarily square with what people believe with regards to their own situation and many people frankly feel like it is getting better or if not atleast not worse and are reasonably content with their situation.

 

[yung.carl.jung]

@Hrothbern

remember our discussion regarding the EU and legalization of soft drugs? looks like there's some promising news:

http://www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/...te-wollen-cannabis-legalisieren/20926768.html

"Bund der deutschen Kriminalbeamten" is advocating for a de-criminalization of cannabis, a somewhat revolutionary ordeal because in the past it was almost exclusively health professionals and others advocating for it in the public sphere, never really policemen or detectives. I doubt CDU is ready for it, but at some point they'll have to.

 

[GoodSarmatian]

I recently had a discussion with a friend about that. He thought we would have gotten pot legalization under Ampel, but I'm pretty sure it's not going to happen under any government with the CDU and CSU.
Opinion polls are not enocuraging. The majority is for medicinal use but against full legalization, so it's not likely Merkel will allow it just to get rid of a wedge issue like she did with gay marriage.
What's strange is that apparently 41% of AfD voters are for legalization, but only 28% of SPD voters (same number as the CDU).
I guess most people who still vote for the SPD are just conservatives who don't want any change and only superficially self-identify as social democrats.

I'm sure we'll see legal pot within our lifetimes here, but it's definitely not going to happen before 2021.

 

[Hrothbern]

@Hrothbern
remember our discussion regarding the EU and legalization of soft drugs? looks like there's some promising news:
http://www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/...te-wollen-cannabis-legalisieren/20926768.html
"Bund der deutschen Kriminalbeamten" is advocating for a de-criminalization of cannabis, a somewhat revolutionary ordeal because in the past it was almost exclusively health professionals and others advocating for it in the public sphere, never really policemen or detectives. I doubt CDU is ready for it, but at some point they'll have to.

good news indeed.
The arguments used cautious enough, but to the point.

The Kripo police officers they represent the ones (criminal investigation agency) that have to deal with the practice of the negative side effects for the users, society and their workload because of narrowminded principles of voters or polticians who think to benefit from that.
And see like the professional health field no benefits to stigmatise users to criminals.
It takes away the simplistic law and order argument for politicians, also because the Kripo is, I guess, seen as a knowledgeable body by the public.

Well
anyone
how about France ?
Did Macron already uttered some words on that subject ?

 

[AdrienIer]

Macron's only idea concerning weed is that instead of being treated like criminals, weed smokers will now only be given an automatic fine (kind of like parking tickets). No news concerning legalization of anything.

 

[Hrothbern]

If Germany would start doing that on a short term,
considering that in Germany the fine you get for not paying your parking ticket is lower than the parking ticket, and closer to the price of one joint....

 

[GoodSarmatian]

If Germany would start doing that on a short term,
considering that in Germany the fine you get for not paying your parking ticket is lower than the parking ticket, and closer to the price of one joint....

Weed is already practically decriminalized in Germany if you're caught with small amounts that could reasonably be considered to be for personal use and not sale. The cops will confiscate your drugs and you'll be charged, but the charges are automatically dropped because the court system has more important things to do.
The problem is, if you are or aspire to be any kind of government employee (like a teacher for example), you can still be dismissed or denied employment because you got caught with a joint.

 

[yung.carl.jung]

Weed is already practically decriminalized in Germany

not in Bavaria :x