Is Britain about to leave the EU?

[FriendlyFire]

^Well, yes. The Eu has stopped even trying to look egalitarian. Has been a powergrab with vassals on the open, at least since 2009-2010. And for the last few years it is beyond nasty.

Which influenced the Leave vote in Britain as well, mind. It is not just some weird British thing. It would never had had this outcome if not for what the Eu has become by now, namely something disastrous for a number of its own old countries.

Let me get this straight
EU has been ordering Greece to send refugees back to Turkey and Greece refuses
EU has been ordering qoutas for refugees and EU countries refuse them
Greece has unilaterally decided to open its borders, Austria has unilaterally decided to close its borders.
And this is a sign that the EU has become increasingly dictatorial ?

 

[Sommerswerd]

Is it though ? The Brits have undoubtedly started a small financial meltdown that may or may not lead to larger economic crisis around the world. We've yelled at the US and GWB for starting the previous crisis, saying that the Brits are irresponsible and stupid (paraphrasing the video here) is pretty mild.

Thank you for acknowledging this. I mentioned the cruel irony of it in a different thread, but didn't bring it up here as it felt a little too troll-ey, even for me.

 

[Sommerswerd]

Also... Sorry if this has already been discussed, but right after the vote Rachel Maddow did a segment talking about how the EU was in a way the brain child of Winston Churchill as he envisioned it as the only way to prevent Europe from continuously dragging the entire world into global wars... I thought it was a pretty good point to bring up, and Rachel Maddow usually does pretty good work... enjoy:


Link to video.

 

[Ajidica]

Churchill was an odd fellow. During the Fall of France he proposed an Anglo-French political union that would see the two countries merged.

 

[Dachs]

British stupidity goes much deeper than the Brexit vote. If you want to know, I think electing a government of Tories in 2010 was a far dumber move than voting for Brexit.

not only did a minority of voters opt for the Tories, they also had a minority of MPs

 

[Lexicus]

*shrug* too many of them voted for the Tories. We Americans have the same excuses for a lot of the Republicans we elect but that doesn't make us any less stupid.

 

[Takhisis]

not only did a minority of voters opt for the Tories, they also had a minority of MPs

Yep, the Liberal Democrats decided to support the Conservatives, thus destroying their party's electoral chances for a generation. Then last year the Conservatives won and… held the referendum. The LibDems, believe it or not, actually held the Conservatives in check.

 

[W|M]

And they also won with a minority of voters last year

 

[FriendlyFire]

Greece next review is in October ? And Greece is going to again threaten Grexit ?
I look forward to this new round of Game of EU.

How Brexit is reshaping domestic politics in EU member states

In Greece, Europe’s weakest link , the referendum result has been met with a robust mix of surprise, delight and fear. But as capitals digest the consequences of the vote, in Athens it is anxiety that has emerged as the dominant force across a divisive political scene.

With the taboo of exit now lifted, there is thinly disguised alarm that the country long at the epicentre of the eurozone’s crisis could be next. Entirely dependent on international bailout funds to keep afloat, Greece’s debt-stricken economy is especially vulnerable to uncertainty: its stock market lost more, globally, than any other within hours of the Brexit vote being announced.

Emboldened by the outcome, eurosceptic extremists – led by the neo-fascist Golden Dawn – have said they hope it will herald the end of the German-dominated, austerity-obsessed bloc. Riding the anti-establishment populist wave, newspapers on both the left and right have exhorted prime minister Alexis Tsipras to exploit the moment. “He should tell foreigners to write off the debt and let us be – otherwise we will revolt and leave ourselves,” proclaimed the daily Kontra News.

The leftist-led government knows it is walking a fine line. If Brexit results in further EU integration, Berlin – the biggest provider of rescue funds to date – may well take a much tougher stance with Athens over implementation of bailout commitments not least because Angela Merkel will want to placate the forces of Euroscepticism ahead of general elections in Germany next year.

“There is a danger of tensions growing,” the environment and energy minister Panos Skourletis told the Guardian. “Completion of the next evaluation of the Greek economy in October [key to dispensing further bailout funds] will depend on the political climate in Europe and whether our partners and lenders decide to take a more relaxing stance. After so many years of austerity the economy is exhausted, Greeks are exhausted, there is no room for even one more measure.”

The prospect of Greece failing to achieve fiscal targets has been heightened by the adverse effects Brexit is likely to have on tourism and exports – both crucial to keeping the recession-hit economy on track. Already, Greek tourism officials are bracing for a steep decline in last-minute bookings by Britons because of the plunging pound.

More than 2.5 million UK citizens visited Greece last year, more than any other nation after Germany. Such losses will play into the hands of Eurosceptics at a time when the backlash against yet more gruelling austerity – pension and salary cuts, tax increases and benefit reversals set as the price of further bailout loans – is expected to mount.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics...ing-domestic-politics-eu-member-states-merkel

 

[EnglishEdward]

Is it though ? The Brits have undoubtedly started a small financial meltdown that may or may not lead to larger economic crisis around the world. We've yelled at the US and GWB for starting the previous crisis, saying that the Brits are irresponsible and stupid (paraphrasing the video here) is pretty mild.

The UK electorate is NOT Guilty.

Derivatives trading whereby individuals dishonestly gamble vast sums of other peoples'
money for their personal profit means that the financial system is inherently unstable.

One might just as easily blame the butterfly flapping its wings for the hurricane.

A more robust system in which such fraud was prohibited would shrug off the
implications of the UK referendum on the EU with a few once off adjustments.

 

[EnglishEdward]

And they also won with a minority of voters last year

It was a narrow win, and in my opinion the fact that it was a win at all was because
David Cameron promised a referendum on the EU. This took votes off the very pro
EU Liberal Democrats and Labour who opposed it, and reduced the support for UKIP.

For all his faults, there have been three referendums under David Cameron, and
each and every one of those was a good thing, bringing democracy back to the people.

 

[AdrienIer]

The UK electorate is NOT Guilty.

Derivatives trading whereby individuals dishonestly gamble vast sums of other peoples'
money for their personal profit means that the financial system is inherently unstable.

One might just as easily blame the butterfly flapping its wings for the hurricane.

A more robust system in which such fraud was prohibited would shrug off the
implications of the UK referendum on the EU with a few once off adjustments.

The UK electorate is definitely guilty. This was not a referendum on changing the financial system, so the financial system was a given when people voted. When the rules are set you don't complain that it's the rules' fault and not your own.

Also the UK was an important factor in the creation of the current financial system, so spare me the irony of complaining that it's too unstable.

 

[Verbose]

Churchill was an odd fellow. During the Fall of France he proposed an Anglo-French political union that would see the two countries merged.

It was actually in Jean Monet's bag before in landed in Churchill's.

 

[Manfred Belheim]

Both sides of the Brexit debate need to deal with the problem, have a plan to prevent racism getting out of control, the remain side of politics does, starting with calling it out for what it is and condemning it.

And they're the only ones who condemn it are they? This is just an awful, manipulative argument.

 

[luiz]

Apparently the IMF is already forecasting a recession for the UK next year... I'll try to confirm it.

The electorate voted itself into a recession! Unfortunately this is not the first time or place where this happens.

 

[Tahuti]

Apparently the IMF is already forecasting a recession for the UK next year... I'll try to confirm it.

The electorate voted itself into a recession! Unfortunately this is not the first time or place where this happens.

So what? Recessions do not kill us and in fact recessions will reduce environmental degradation.

 

[Mise]

The latest I've read on the "deal" the EU intends to offer is that Merkel has already ruled out a "EEA+" deal, i.e. the UK will NOT get a better deal than Norway. Instead, Germany intends to offer an "EEA-" deal, which means: (i) Access to single market, (ii) No "passporting" for banks, and (iii) No control over migration from the EU. "Passporting" is the process via which banks are able to operate in other EU countries: they have a "passport" which allows them to do so. If UK banks lose passporting, it will be TERRIBLE news for them, and in reality would mean that a lot of banking operations would have to move to the EU, probably Frankfurt, Paris or Amsterdam. The only other option is to simply leave the EU and not have access to the single market.

The deal above would be bloody terrible, as we would lose massive amounts of tax revenues and jobs as banks move to the EU, and we wouldn't even gain control over immigration. It would not be palatable for either the 52% of voters who wanted to leave, nor the 48% who wanted to stay. If this was the only deal, then we would probably have to go to a second referendum: a straight in or out, where out really means OUT, i.e. no access to single market whatsoever. In this case, it is likely that we would vote IN in the second referendum.

However, France intends to gazump this deal, by offering full control over immigration. This deal would be far superior for the 52% of people who voted to leave, obviously, but also note that the main losers here are the banks: the City would be crippled, the banks hobbled and forced to move to the EU, but many on the left would gleefully relish this possibility. It would be a much easier sell. In this case, it may not go to a second referendum vote; we may leave the EU on these terms, and accept the permanent loss of jobs and tax revenue.

The winners, of course, are France and Germany, where it is likely that financial services will relocate after they leave London. Huge boost for them, not just jobs and tax revenues, but also in global standing and political clout.

I may start brushing up on my French.

So the French have already gazumped the German/EU deal by saying that immigration controls ARE on the table.

June 29th: "EU says no compromise on freedom of movement"
June 30th: "Freedom of movement 'on the table' for forthcoming talks"

The French guy even said that financial services could move to France! So yeah, it looks like the Tories will have to choose between pleasing their base by controlling immigration, and pleasing their friends and financial backers by keeping financial services in the City.

That would be the single worst outcome. Vindicating tantrum-throwing behaviour is the last thing that the EU needs, and on top of being utterly unjust to everyone, it would encourage such behaviour.

If anything, the UK should be only allowed to stay if it forgoes every single special deal it had.

After seeing the UK and its subpar worker's rights being so snubs about how they outperform France and its "outdated" workers's rights, mainly due to the fact that the UK has a considerable financial advantage with the City (remove the City and France is far ahead of the UK in GNP), it would be a delicious revenge

Anyway, I certainly hope EU won't offer such a sweet deal. The UK wants out, let them have what they asked for, and without the usual special rule just for them.

I think France knows that the UK won't leave the EU entirely, unless it has access to the single market in some respect. It's betting that the UK will choose to control immigration and wallop the banks, which will be massively beneficial for France. Think of it from France's perspective: it loses nothing by having the UK retain access to the single market, but preventing UK banks from operating in Europe. It only gains from that arrangement.

For the UK the deal is awful. We retain access to the single market, but not for banks, which is our main export to the EU. We would lose out massively from that deal.

 

[Verbose]

So what? Recessions do not kill us and in fact recessions will reduce environmental degradation.

It tends to tick off the disavantaged in society — in this case the people who feel the sqeeze from international competition in the labour market, are stuck in low-paying jobs with rubbish job security, AND voted for "Brexit" as it was supposed to fix these all these things...

To the extent the populist turn in British politics needs to be taken seriously, it's at least a question of the hitherto sensible, pragmatist, but seriously market liberal and pro-globalisation UK has hit a wall?

Then pile on economic recession to a political situation of actually unknown volatility. Things tend to be relatively stable at least if there's some money to share, but if that pie instead goes into contraction...

And iirc "Brexit" came at a time when supposedly the UK is doing rather well again, in national economy terms.

 

[luiz]

So what? Recessions do not kill us and in fact recessions will reduce environmental degradation.

Go back to the caves, then.

I have no patience for this line of "thinking".

 

[EnglishEdward]

The UK electorate is definitely guilty. This was not a referendum on changing the financial system, so the financial system was a given when people voted. When the rules are set you don't complain that it's the rules' fault and not your own.

Also the UK was an important factor in the creation of the current financial system, so spare me the irony of complaining that it's too unstable.

Whatever gives you the idea that I am complaining?

The concept that by exercising our democratic vote, and not in the way those in power want,
we are 'guilty'; is all rather strange. It is the kind of thing that is reminiscent of medieval times
when a king's judge might instruct the jurors to find the accused guilty or of East Germany in
soviet times or North Korea today when one is required to vote for the communist candidate.