Let's Make a CFC-OT US Presidential Election Map 2012!

[metatron]

Kinda weird if not.

That would make it unamerican?

 

[Dreadnought]

For formality's sake it is, but normally because the West Coast will swing Democrat we know who's winning by then.

 

[AlpsStranger]

Actually, I just unskewed the polls from California and Romney is +5.

 

[Antilogic]

Spoiler :

http://www.explainxkcd.com/wiki/index.php?title=1122

I've had a lot of fun forwarding this around. There's always a rule that gets broken, and there's always a new rule.

Yeah, but i wanted to nitpick a bit. Which was fun.
For example, i realised that Obama is the first Democrat to win without winning Missouri.

And Bill Clinton was the first to win without Texas! There are tons of these little trivia facts you can garner if you spend long enough staring at the wikis of past elections.

Isn't there any sort of prohibition on announcing results until all polls are closed nationwide? Kinda weird if not.

No projections are made as to the outcome in a single state until that state's polls are closed. However, results will start being announced around 7 PM Eastern time and continue until 1 AM when the polls in Alaska close. The newscasters only call the safe states immediately, though, and then project the winner for each state as the results trickle in and they feel confident enough to call it. Plus they call the House and Senate races throughout the evening too.

If I didn't have meetings and work the next day I'd promise to stay up all night until a decision is made. It's a lot of fun.

 

[AlpsStranger]

No Tossups map from the borderline communists at Real Clear Politics

These jokers also think Obama is up by .5 in the popular vote. Idiots.

 

[metatron]

Idiots.

In their defense: They only succumbed to this illusion a few days ago. Before that they were virtually covering an entirely different election than the one they are covering now. That's even more true for their Senate predictions.

And they still provide a forum to steely eyed realists:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/2012/11/03/bottom_line_romney_315_obama_223_295114.html

 

[AlpsStranger]

 

[Camikaze]

Figured I should make a map too. Here. The light ones are the ones (Florida, Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire) I'm putting my money on being in play, the others I'm more sure of.

If I didn't have meetings and work the next day I'd promise to stay up all night until a decision is made. It's a lot of fun.

I'm at home all day everyday studying at the moment, which is convenient, given coverage here starts at about lunchtime. I just hope the ABC picks up a decent feed...

 

[Antilogic]

I kind of feel dirty that my map is consistent with the Race42012 one (just posted a few hours ago)--this used to be one of the right-wing fantasy maps that had the tossup states and Maine-2 called far too favorably for Romney.

Now, they are entirely consistent with my map, with the exception that they project Obama to win Colorado and Romney to win Virginia (which was one of the scenarios I outlined). I'm wondering if I should have colored both Colorado and Virginia light blue. Oh well, too late now.

 

[Core Imposter]

We stand at the door of liberty. Will we walk through into the light and breathe freely or remain in the shadow in bondage and in fear?

Actually, an Obama win would be more fun for many of us. If Mittens wins, we spend four years hating his liberal arse. If Obama gets another turn we get to spend the next four years marching through southern swamps and shooting up all "official" looking tree stumps.

 

[utgotye]

Isn't there any sort of prohibition on announcing results until all polls are closed nationwide? Kinda weird if not.

Depends if you count exit polling as "results".

I have Romney winning 281-257. We'll see what happens.

Cheers!

 

[Antilogic]

What's your map look like? Romney with FL-NC-VA-OH-IA-CO?

 

[Core Imposter]

Romney collapsed in the final Gallup polling to a +1 advantage with likely voters. If accurate America is lost. Look to your souls.

Now the judgement.

And I saw when the Lamb opened one of the seals, and I heard, as it were the noise of thunder, one of the four beasts saying, Come and see.
And I saw, and behold a white horse: and he that sat on him had a bow; and a crown was given unto him: and he went forth conquering, and to conquer.
And when he had opened the second seal, I heard the second beast say, Come and see.
And there went out another horse that was red: and power was given to him that sat thereon to take peace from the earth, and that they should kill one another: and there was given unto him a great sword.
And when he had opened the third seal, I heard the third beast say, Come and see. And I beheld, and lo a black horse; and he that sat on him had a pair of balances in his hand.
And I heard a voice in the midst of the four beasts say, A measure of wheat for a penny, and three measures of barley for a penny; and see thou hurt not the oil and the wine.
And when he had opened the fourth seal, I heard the voice of the fourth beast say, Come and see.
And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him. And power was given unto them over the fourth part of the earth, to kill with sword, and with hunger, and with death, and with the beasts of the earth.

 

[Antilogic]

Weird, it's almost like Rassy and Gallup are doing last-minute corrections to be more in-line with state polling to make sure they have an equivalent claim to accuracy in future elections.

Or Obama has serious for-realsies surged all over Romney's face.

 

[Harv]

Here is a slightly off topic question:

Who wins the Senate? Which states flip?

If I am not mistaken, any prediction that Romney becomes the next President means very little if the Democrats still rule the Senate.

 

[Antilogic]

So Scott Brown in Massachusetts and the Republican seat formerly held by Lugar in Indiana are now possible-to-likely Democratic pickups. Claire McCaskill is favored to hold her seat, as is Sherrod Brown, both Democrats who the Republicans should have been able to dislodge. The Republicans are likely to take the seat in Nebraska formerly held by a Democrat, but that's about all they have going for them right now.

RCP has 47+2 Dem+Ind, 44 Rep, and 7 tossups, but they are still calling the Massachusetts and Indiana races tossups. Silver is predicting the Democrats to hold the Senate with 52 or 53 seats, but Silver has a 3 seat margin of error (basically, he's right in the middle and the margin of error covers the 7 tossups). Even on Faux News, I heard talking heads agree on Sunday the Democrats were likely to hold the Senate.

 

[utgotye]

What's your map look like? Romney with FL-NC-VA-OH-IA-CO?

Yep. Went back and forth on IA and ended up just flipping a coin since it didn't matter at that point as far as who won. IA could be a bit strange since the polls there close later than the surrounding states. Iowa is just strange in general though.

 

[AlpsStranger]

Romney collapsed in the final Gallup polling to a +1 advantage with likely voters. If accurate America is lost. Look to your souls.

Gallup wants to have a job after tomorrow, and Romney cheerleading just might not be an available career by then Scooty Rassy rolled over too.

So anyhow, I cannot guarantee that Obama will win. Nobody can, of course. Stranger things have happened, etc. I will say that I feel good, damn good.

Best of luck to everyone. Happy election day!

 

[madviking]

prediction:
303 - obama
235 - romney

florida's gonna be interesting...

 

[GhostWriter16]

Gallup wants to have a job after tomorrow, and Romney cheerleading just might not be an available career by then Scooty Rassy rolled over too.

So anyhow, I cannot guarantee that Obama will win. Nobody can, of course. Stranger things have happened, etc. I will say that I feel good, damn good.

Best of luck to everyone. Happy election day!

Sorry, but short of an absolute miracle that is not going to happen