It is arguable whether or not it's a defeat for the US (it got "defeated" into selling trillion dollars worth of weapons and gaining control of the energy market in the Eu). But it makes no sense to argue that the defeat or "defeat" belongs to someone who isn't even back to being potus.
[RD] Russia Invades Ukraine: Eight
- Thread starter Birdjaguar
- Start date
because, unless it takes less than 2 weeks or more than 4 years for Russia to win, he will be the one in charge at that time, and is the one that said he could stop the war on the current positions when he'll be in charge.
He's also the one that opposed the aid, with success (for Russia) in 2024.
Zardnaar
Deity
Well looking at Russian economy and Soviet Stockpiles Russias pretty much done this year.
They won't be advancing fast until Maybe or June.
Moderator Action: Back to news rather than opinion please
US hits Russian oil with toughest sanctions yet in bid to give Ukraine, Trump leverage
Daleep Singh, a top White House economic and national security adviser, said in a statement that the measures were the "most significant sanctions yet on Russia’s energy sector, by far the largest source of revenue for (President Vladimir) Putin’s war".
The U.S. Treasury imposed sanctions on Gazprom Neft (SIBN.MM), opens new tab and Surgutneftegas, which explore for, produce and sell oil as well as 183 vessels that have shipped Russian oil, many of which are in the so-called shadow fleet of aging tankers operated by non-Western companies. The sanctions also include networks that trade the petroleum.
Many of those tankers have been used to ship oil to India and China as a price cap imposed by the Group of Seven countries in 2022 has shifted trade in Russian oil from Europe to Asia. Some tankers have shipped both Russian and Iranian oil.
The Treasury also rescinded a provision that had exempted the intermediation of energy payments from sanctions on Russian banks.
The sanctions should cost Russia billions of dollars per month if sufficiently enforced, another U.S. official told reporters in a call.
"There is not a step in the production and distribution chain that's untouched and that gives us greater confidence that evasion is going to be even more costly for Russia," the official said.
Gazprom Neft said the sanctions were unjustified and illegitimate and it will continue to operate.
[...]
sources in Russian oil trade and Indian refining said the sanctions will cause severe disruption of Russian oil exports to its major buyers India and China.
Global oil prices jumped more than 3% ahead of the Treasury announcement, with Brent crude nearing $80 a barrel, as a document mapping out the sanctions circulated among traders in Europe and Asia.
Geoffrey Pyatt, the U.S. assistant secretary for energy resources at the State Department, said there were new volumes of oil expected to come online this year from the United States, Guyana, Canada and Brazil and possibly out of the Middle East will fill in for any lost Russian supply.
[...]
One of the Biden officials said it was "entirely" up to the President-elect Trump, a Republican, who takes office on Jan. 20, when and on what terms he might lift sanctions imposed during the Biden era.
But to do so he would have to notify Congress and give it the ability to take a vote of disapproval, he said. Many Republican members of Congress had urged Biden to impose Friday's sanctions.
"Trump's people can't just come in and quietly lift everything that Biden just did. Congress would have to be involved," said Jeremy Paner, a partner at the law firm Hughes Hubbard & Reed.
The return of Trump has sparked hope of a diplomatic resolution to end Moscow's invasion but also fears in Kyiv that a quick peace could come at a high price for Ukraine.
The military aid and oil sanctions "provide the next administration a considerable boost to their and Ukraine's leverage in brokering a just and durable peace," one of the officials said.
Daleep Singh, a top White House economic and national security adviser, said in a statement that the measures were the "most significant sanctions yet on Russia’s energy sector, by far the largest source of revenue for (President Vladimir) Putin’s war".
The U.S. Treasury imposed sanctions on Gazprom Neft (SIBN.MM), opens new tab and Surgutneftegas, which explore for, produce and sell oil as well as 183 vessels that have shipped Russian oil, many of which are in the so-called shadow fleet of aging tankers operated by non-Western companies. The sanctions also include networks that trade the petroleum.
Many of those tankers have been used to ship oil to India and China as a price cap imposed by the Group of Seven countries in 2022 has shifted trade in Russian oil from Europe to Asia. Some tankers have shipped both Russian and Iranian oil.
The Treasury also rescinded a provision that had exempted the intermediation of energy payments from sanctions on Russian banks.
The sanctions should cost Russia billions of dollars per month if sufficiently enforced, another U.S. official told reporters in a call.
"There is not a step in the production and distribution chain that's untouched and that gives us greater confidence that evasion is going to be even more costly for Russia," the official said.
Gazprom Neft said the sanctions were unjustified and illegitimate and it will continue to operate.
[...]
sources in Russian oil trade and Indian refining said the sanctions will cause severe disruption of Russian oil exports to its major buyers India and China.
Global oil prices jumped more than 3% ahead of the Treasury announcement, with Brent crude nearing $80 a barrel, as a document mapping out the sanctions circulated among traders in Europe and Asia.
Geoffrey Pyatt, the U.S. assistant secretary for energy resources at the State Department, said there were new volumes of oil expected to come online this year from the United States, Guyana, Canada and Brazil and possibly out of the Middle East will fill in for any lost Russian supply.
[...]
One of the Biden officials said it was "entirely" up to the President-elect Trump, a Republican, who takes office on Jan. 20, when and on what terms he might lift sanctions imposed during the Biden era.
But to do so he would have to notify Congress and give it the ability to take a vote of disapproval, he said. Many Republican members of Congress had urged Biden to impose Friday's sanctions.
"Trump's people can't just come in and quietly lift everything that Biden just did. Congress would have to be involved," said Jeremy Paner, a partner at the law firm Hughes Hubbard & Reed.
The return of Trump has sparked hope of a diplomatic resolution to end Moscow's invasion but also fears in Kyiv that a quick peace could come at a high price for Ukraine.
The military aid and oil sanctions "provide the next administration a considerable boost to their and Ukraine's leverage in brokering a just and durable peace," one of the officials said.
Which Russian ports do the shadow fleet ships use to load their oil?
Zardnaar
Deity
Black sea ones afaik. Not sure about other ones.
Baltic Sea is also used, not just to drag anchors over critical cables, but to prepare another ecological disaster with decrepit oil tankers.
apnews.com
Germany calls a Russian oil tanker adrift in the Baltic Sea a threat to security
An oil tanker believed to be part of Russia’s efforts to evade international sanctions went adrift and had to be towed ashore by a German tugboat.
apnews.com
Aren't Russia's only access to the Baltic through St. Petersburg and Kaliningrad?
Thanks!
"In the 1980s the main part of USSR foreign trade shipments on the Baltic Sea went through the Baltic States. 25% of the total cargo turnover was from the Russian ports: Kaliningrad port, Big port Saint Petersburg, Vyborg port and Vysotsk port. In 1991 USSR collapsed, and Russian Federation appeared on its former territory along other new countries. 4 out of 9 USSR Baltic Ports were now on Russia’s territory, moreover, Kaliningrad port didn’t have a direct overland transport with the mainland. These ports’ capacity was not enough, and Russia had to pay other countries for using their ports and transferring cargoes on their territory (including shipments to Kaliningrad). In order to minimize the dependency on foreign harbours, in 1993 the government made a decision to build three new ports in Leningrad Oblast. One of them would become an alternative to the USSR’s biggest oil-loading port in Ventspils, Latvia.
The construction of Primorsk oil-loading port was initiated in 2000, the first row with two docks started operating in December of 2001.<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Port_of_Primorsk#cite_note-а-1"><span>[</span>1<span>]</span></a> Second and third started operating in 2004 and 2006 respectively, the amount of docks for tankers grew by four times. A terminal for transferring light petroleum products was opened."
Blockade time. Or, that port is less than 700 miles from Kyiv.
"In the 1980s the main part of USSR foreign trade shipments on the Baltic Sea went through the Baltic States. 25% of the total cargo turnover was from the Russian ports: Kaliningrad port, Big port Saint Petersburg, Vyborg port and Vysotsk port. In 1991 USSR collapsed, and Russian Federation appeared on its former territory along other new countries. 4 out of 9 USSR Baltic Ports were now on Russia’s territory, moreover, Kaliningrad port didn’t have a direct overland transport with the mainland. These ports’ capacity was not enough, and Russia had to pay other countries for using their ports and transferring cargoes on their territory (including shipments to Kaliningrad). In order to minimize the dependency on foreign harbours, in 1993 the government made a decision to build three new ports in Leningrad Oblast. One of them would become an alternative to the USSR’s biggest oil-loading port in Ventspils, Latvia.
The construction of Primorsk oil-loading port was initiated in 2000, the first row with two docks started operating in December of 2001.<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Port_of_Primorsk#cite_note-а-1"><span>[</span>1<span>]</span></a> Second and third started operating in 2004 and 2006 respectively, the amount of docks for tankers grew by four times. A terminal for transferring light petroleum products was opened."
Blockade time. Or, that port is less than 700 miles from Kyiv.
Last edited:
Farm Boy
I hope you dance
- Joined
- Sep 8, 2010
- Messages
- 28,253
Definitely not the main beneficiary of the whole thing. The ones keeping quiet about their new hat are grinning. And militarizing faster than just about any country ever, but details.
Ukraine has captured two North Korean soldiers in Russia, Zelensky says
The wounded fighters were taken to Kyiv for questioning, authorities said, where they could reveal details of Pyongyang’s cooperation with Moscow.KYIV — Ukraine has captured two wounded North Korean soldiers from the battlefield in Russia’s Kursk region and transported them to Kyiv for questioning, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Saturday, the first time Ukraine has confirmed detaining North Korean troops since they were deployed late last year.
“Two soldiers, though wounded, survived and were transported to Kyiv, where they are now communicating with the Security Service of Ukraine,” Zelensky wrote on Instagram in a post that included photos of the prisoners. “This was not an easy task: Russian forces and other North Korean military personnel usually execute their wounded to erase any evidence of North Korea’s involvement in the war against Ukraine.”
“As with all prisoners of war, these two North Korean soldiers are receiving the necessary medical assistance,” he wrote. He said he had instructed security officials to grant journalists access to the prisoners. “The world needs to know the truth about what is happening.”
Ukraine’s internal security service, the SBU, said the capture provided “indisputable evidence” of North Korean involvement in the war. One of the soldiers was taken by Ukrainian special forces, the service said in a statement; the other, by Ukrainian paratroopers.
The prisoners, who were captured fighting in the small part of western Russia that Ukraine has controlled since August, could offer Kyiv important intelligence about the collaboration between Pyongyang and Moscow. Russia and North Korea signed a mutual defense pact in November, and Ukraine has said at least 11,000 North Korean troops have been deployed to help retake Ukrainian-occupied territory.
Ukrainian troops first reported the large-scale arrival of North Korean troops on the battlefield in mid-December and Zelensky said this week that at least 4,000 have already been killed or wounded.
Photos posted by Zelensky showed one soldier in a striped sweater lying in a cot in a detention center with both arms bandaged and another in a military jacket with swollen lips and bandages around his head. The second soldier is also shown sipping from a cup through a straw in a room with two sets of bunk beds. His lower bunk is the only one occupied. The room appears clean with a radiator and a window protected with metal bars.
The post includes posted photos of a passport-like Russian language document. It shows its bearer’s birth year as 1998. Ukrainian officials have warned for months that North Korean troops would be deployed with Russian documents to disguise their nationality.
The prisoners do not speak Ukrainian, English or Russian, the SBU said, so Ukraine is using Korean-language interpreters in cooperation with South Korea’s National Intelligence Service. The soldier with the bandaged arms told questioners the passport-like document was issued to him late last year in Russia, the service said. He said he believed he was being sent there for training. He said he was born in 2005 and had joined the North Korean military in 2021.
The other soldier, who wounded his jaw, answered questions in writing, the SBU said. He said he was born in 1999 and had served as a scout sniper in North Korea since 2016.
Video published by the SBU shows a Ukrainian doctor, his face blurred, saying a dentist will treat the soldier with the wounded jaw. The other soldier, the doctor says, has a fractured leg with an open wound. Ukrainian troops fighting in the Kursk region have described waves of Korean troops appearing on the battlefield in mid-December with little apparent preparation for the conflict as it’s being waged. They moved in large groups and appeared not to react to lethally armed drones hovering overhead. Unlike Russian soldiers, who typically move in small groups to avoid detection and flee drones, the North Korean soldiers plowed forward even as their fellow troops were killed and wounded beside them, Ukrainian soldiers have said.
Oleh, a Ukrainian special forces soldier fighting in Kursk, said his unit captured a badly wounded North Korean in late December, but he died within four hours, before he could be transported for questioning. Others, he said, have killed themselves with grenades to avoid capture.
saamohod
Deity
Baltic Sea is also used, not just to drag anchors over critical cables, but to prepare another ecological disaster with decrepit oil tankers.
Germany calls a Russian oil tanker adrift in the Baltic Sea a threat to security
An oil tanker believed to be part of Russia’s efforts to evade international sanctions went adrift and had to be towed ashore by a German tugboat.
Should Putin resort to weaponize these tankers via oil environmental disasters, the consequence could simply be that the Finnish Gulf and the Danish straits will be closed for all oil tankers going to and from Russian ports in the Baltic.
He already has weaponized them.
Russian forces advance towards Ukraine’s Dnipro region
Troops bypass urban warfare in Donetsk and push towards highway leading to DnipropetrovskRussian forces are heading towards Ukraine’s Dnipro region, bypassing an anticipated heavy urban battle in the eastern Donetsk area. Ukraine has been preparing for urban warfare in Pokrovsk, a key logistics and transport hub for the remaining Ukrainian-controlled parts of the Donetsk region, since the summer.
But Russian forces pushing up from the south are now heading west of Pokrovsk and are just under 7km from taking the highway leading to the Dnipropetrovsk region, according to mapping group Deep State, which has ties to Ukraine’s defence ministry. “They understand that they will lose a lot of their forces trying to take Pokrovsk so they have decided to pursue a different strategy and approach from the south and go around it,” Andriy Cherniak, a senior Ukrainian military intelligence official, told the Financial Times on Sunday. “They will try to cut off all the supplies to Pokrovsk so that our forces leave there.”
Russia’s ministry of defence announced on Sunday the capture of Yantarnoye settlement in the Donetsk region, approximately 50km south of Pokrovsk, following “active offensive operations”. “The border of the Dnipropetrovsk region is now approximately 6.5km away,” Russian military blogger Voenkor Kotenok posted on his Telegram channel on Sunday.
The next major town inside Dnipropetrovsk is Pavlograd, a major Ukrainian military base. The region also includes Dnipro, Ukraine’s fourth-largest city. How quickly Russian forces are able to take the highway towards Dnipropetrovsk, depends on the extent of fortifications in the area as well as Ukrainian manpower, which has been in increasingly short supply.
Russian forces advance towards Ukraine’s Dnipro region
Troops bypass urban warfare in Donetsk and push towards highway leading to Dnipropetrovsk
www.ft.com
saamohod
Deity
Around 300 N.K. soldiers killed, 2,700 wounded during fight against Ukraine: S. Korea's spy agency
SEOUL, Jan. 13 (Yonhap) -- At least 300 North Korean soldiers dispatched to support Moscow's war in Ukraine have been killed, with some 2,700 others injured, South Korea's spy agency told lawmakers Monday.
The National Intelligence Service (NIS) shared the information with lawmakers during a closed-door meeting by the parliamentary intelligence committee, according to Rep. Lee Seong-kweun of the ruling People Power Party.
The NIS said it attributed the "massive casualties" of North Korean soldiers to their "lack of understanding of modern warfare," including their "useless" act of shooting at long-range drones, based on the agency's analysis of a combat video it obtained recently.
The spy agency also said North Korea has stressed to its soldiers to kill themselves to avoid being captured alive by the Ukrainian military.
Around 300 N.K. soldiers killed, 2,700 wounded during fight against Ukraine: S. Korea's spy agency | Yonhap News Agency
By Yi Wonju SEOUL, Jan. 13 (Yonhap) -- At least 300 North Korean soldiers dispatched to...
Broken_Erika
Play with me.
'Your husband's being tortured, and it's your fault'
Svitlana says she never considered betraying her country, "not for a second.""My husband would've never forgiven me," she says, as we meet in her flat near Kyiv.
The 42-year-old had been waiting for news of her husband Dima, an army medic captured by Russia, for more than two years when she suddenly received a phone call.
The voice at the end of the phone told her that if she committed treason against Ukraine, Dima could be eligible for better treatment in prison, or even early release.
"A Ukrainian number called me. I picked up, and the man introduced himself as Dmitry," Svitlana explains. "He spoke in a Russian accent."
"He said, 'You can either burn down a military enlistment office, set fire to a military vehicle or sabotage a Ukrainian Railways electrical box.'"
There was one other option: to reveal the locations of nearby air defence units — vital military assets that keep Ukraine's skies safe from Russian drones and missiles.
As Dmitry set out his proposal, Svitlana says she recalled instructions that the Ukrainian authorities had distributed to all families in the event of being approached by Russian agents: buy as much time as possible, record and photograph everything, and report it.
Svitlana did report it, and took screenshots of the messages, which she showed to the BBC.
The Ukrainian Security Service, the SBU, told her to stall the Russians while they investigated. So she pretended to agree to firebomb a local railway line.
As we sit in her immaculate sitting room, with air raid sirens periodically wailing outside, she plays me recordings she made on her phone of two of the voice calls with Dmitry, made via the Telegram app. During the call, he gives instructions on how to make and plant a Molotov cocktail.
"Pour in a litre of lighting fluid and add a bit of petrol," Dmitry explains. "Go to some sort of railway junction. Make sure there are no security cameras. Wear a hat – just in case."
He also gave Svitlana a tutorial in how to put her phone on airplane mode once she was 1-2km away from her intended target, to avoid her signal being picked up by mobile phone masts that could be used by investigators.
"Do you know what a relay box is? Take a photo of it. This should be the target for her arson attack," explained Dmitry, who demanded proof of completion of the task.
"Write today's date on a piece of paper and take a photo with this piece of paper."
In return, Dmitry said he could arrange a phone call with her husband, or for a parcel to be delivered to him.
Later, the SBU told Svitlana that the man she'd been talking to was indeed in Russia, and she should break off contact. Svitlana told Dmitry she'd changed her mind.
"That's when the threats began," says Svitlana, "He said they'd kill my husband, and I'd never see him again.
For days, he kept calling, saying: "Your husband is being tortured, and it's your fault!"
"How concerned were you that he might go through with the threats to harm Dima?" I ask Svitlana. Her eyes moisten. "My heart ached, and I could only pray: 'God, please don't let that happen.'"
"One part of me said 'this person has no connection with the prisoners.' The other part asks: 'What if he really can do it? How would I live with myself?'"
In a statement to the BBC, the SBU said co-operating with Russian agents "will in no way ease the plight of the prisoner; on the contrary, it may significantly complicate their chances of being exchanged."
The authorities are urging all relatives to come forward immediately if they are approached by Russian agents.
Those who do, they say, will be "protected," and treated as victims.
But if relatives agree to commit sabotage or espionage, says the SBU, "this may be classified as treason. The maximum punishment is life imprisonment."
The authorities regularly publicise arrests of Ukrainians who allegedly commit arson or reveal the location of military sites to Russia.
Pro-Kremlin media is awash with videos purporting to show Ukrainians torching army vehicles or railway electrical boxes.
Some of the culprits do it for money, paid by suspected Russian agents, but it is thought there are attacks carried out by desperate relatives, too.
Petro Yatsenko, from the Ukrainian military's Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War, says around 50% of all families of PoWs are contacted by Russian agents.
"They're in a very vulnerable position and some of them are ready to do anything," Petro says, "but we are trying to educate them that it won't help [their loved ones in captivity]."
Petro says an act such as setting fire to a military vehicle isn't considered a significant material loss to the Ukrainian Armed Forces:
"But it can destabilise the unity of Ukrainian society, so that's the main problem.
And, of course, if someone shares the location of, for example, air defence systems, that's a big problem for us too," he admits.
The authorities don't publish the numbers of Ukrainians held as prisoners of war, but the number is thought to be more than 8,000.
A source in Ukrainian intelligence told the BBC the number of cases where relatives agree to work with Russia is small.
The Russian government told the BBC in a statement that the allegations it uses prisoners' families as leverage are "groundless," and Russia treats "Ukrainian combatants humanely and in full compliance with the Geneva Convention."
The statement goes on to accuse Ukraine of using the same methods:
"Ukrainian handlers are actively attempting to coerce residents of Russia to commit acts of sabotage and arson within Russian territory, targeting critical infrastructure and civilian facilities."
Svitlana's husband Dima was released from captivity just over three months ago.
The couple are now happily back together, and enjoy playing with their four-year-old son, Vova.
How did Svitlana feel when her husband was finally set free?
"There were tears of joy like I've never cried before," she says, beaming. "It felt like I had snatched my love from the jaws of death."
Dima told his wife the Russians didn't act on their threats to punish him for her refusal to co-operate.
When Svitlana told him about the calls, he was shocked.
"He asked me how I held up," she says, and winks. "Well, as I always say, I'm an officer's wife."
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9w5jyd9nnwo
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