[RD] Russia Invades Ukraine: Eight

Trump says he’s working on arranging a meeting with Putin​

President-elect Trump said Thursday he’s working to set up a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

“He wants to meet. And we’re setting it up,” Trump told Fox News’s Peter Doocy at Mar-a-Lago during a meeting with Republican governors. Trump noted he’s had “a lot of communication” with Chinese President Xi Jinping and has spoken with numerous other world leaders. But he has yet to speak with Putin. “But President Putin wants to meet. He’s said that even publicly, and we have to get that war over with. That’s a bloody mess,” Trump said of the war in Ukraine.


Nations usually tend to draft men without abducting them off the streets.
Trump is all show no go. I think there is hope in the Ukraine and maybe hope in Russia that Trump will be able to leverage some sort of cease fire or peace terms. I would not hold my breath. Has Trump had a single diplomatic success on the world stage? I can't think of one. He is good at one sided transactional relationships, &#%^#% his partners, breaking treaties (Iran nuclear deal, NAFTA), throwing allies under the bus and cutting and running (in reference to the Syrian Kurds and the Afghanistan). Aside from that does Putin even want peace? I cant see him stop pursuing victory until the wheels completely fall off.
 
The people who told Trump he could end the war in 2 days must be the same people who told Putin he could conquer Ukraine in 3 days.


[...]

He promised to settle the war quickly upon taking office, but now faces the hard reality that Vladimir Putin has no interest in a negotiated settlement that leaves Ukraine intact as a sovereign nation. Putin also sees an opportunity to strike a damaging blow at American global power. Trump must now choose between accepting a humiliating strategic defeat on the global stage and immediately redoubling American support for Ukraine while there’s still time. The choice he makes in the next few weeks will determine not only the fate of Ukraine but also the success of his presidency.

The end of an independent Ukraine is and always has been Putin’s goal.
[...]
Putin’s stated terms for a settlement have been consistent throughout the war: a change of government in Kyiv in favor of a pro-Russian regime; “de-Nazification,” his favored euphemism for extinguishing Ukrainian nationalism; demilitarization, or leaving Ukraine without combat power sufficient to defend against another Russian attack; and “neutrality,” meaning no ties with Western organizations such as NATO or the EU, and no Western aid programs aimed at shoring up Ukrainian independence. Western experts filling the op-ed pages and journals with ideas for securing a post-settlement Ukraine have been negotiating with themselves. Putin has never agreed to the establishment of a demilitarized zone, foreign troops on Ukrainian soil, a continuing Ukrainian military relationship with the West of any kind, or the survival of Volodymyr Zelensky’s government or any pro-Western government in Kyiv.
[...]
Putin sees the timelines working in his favor. Russian forces may begin to run low on military equipment in the fall of 2025, but by that time Ukraine may already be close to collapse. Ukraine can’t sustain the war another year without a new aid package from the United States. Ukrainian forces are already suffering from shortages of soldiers, national exhaustion, and collapsing morale. Russia’s casualty rate is higher than Ukraine’s, but there are more Russians than Ukrainians, and Putin has found a way to keep filling the ranks, including with foreign fighters. As one of Ukraine’s top generals recently observed, “the number of Russian troops is constantly increasing.” This year, he estimates, has brought 100,000 additional Russian troops to Ukrainian soil. Meanwhile, lack of equipment prevents Ukraine from outfitting reserve units.
[...]
His forces on the ground are making steady progress—at horrific cost, but Putin is willing to pay it so long as Russians tolerate it and he believes that victory is in sight.

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s lifeline to the U.S. and the West has never been more imperiled. After three years of dealing with an American administration trying to help Ukraine defend itself, Putin will soon have an American president and a foreign-policy team who have consistently opposed further aid to Ukraine.
[...]
Is this a moment at which to expect Putin to negotiate a peace deal? A truce would give Ukrainians time to breathe and restore their damaged infrastructure as well as their damaged psyches. It would allow them to re-arm without expending the weapons they already have. It would reduce the divisions between the Trump administration and its European allies. It would spare Trump the need to decide whether to seek an aid package for Ukraine and allow him to focus on parts of the world where Russia is more vulnerable, such as the post-Assad Middle East. Today Putin has momentum on his side in what he regards, correctly, as the decisive main theater. If he wins in Ukraine, his loss in Syria will look trivial by comparison. If he hasn’t blinked after almost three years of misery, hardship, and near defeat, why would he blink now when he believes, with reason, that he is on the precipice of such a massive victory?
[...]
Russian victory means the end of Ukraine. Putin’s aim is not an independent albeit smaller Ukraine, a neutral Ukraine, or even an autonomous Ukraine within a Russian sphere of influence. His goal is no Ukraine. “Modern Ukraine,” he has said, “is entirely the product of the Soviet era.” Putin does not just want to sever Ukraine’s relationships with the West. He aims to stamp out the very idea of Ukraine, to erase it as a political and cultural entity.
[...]
International human-rights organizations and journalists, writing in The New York Times, have documented the creation in occupied Ukraine of “a highly institutionalized, bureaucratic and frequently brutal system of repression run by Moscow” comprising “a gulag of more than 100 prisons, detention facilities, informal camps and basements” across an area roughly the size of Ohio. According to a June 2023 report by the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, nearly all Ukrainians released from this gulag reported being subjected to systematic torture and abuse by Russian authorities. Tortures ranged from “punching and cutting detainees, putting sharp objects under fingernails, hitting with batons and rifle butts, strangling, waterboarding, electrocution, stress positions for long periods, exposure to cold temperatures or to a hot box, deprivation of water and food, and mock executions or threats.” Much of the abuse has been sexual, with women and men raped or threatened with rape. Hundreds of summary executions have been documented, and more are likely—many of the civilians detained by Russia have yet to be seen again. Escapees from Russian-occupied Ukraine speak of a “prison society” in which anyone with pro-Ukrainian views risks being sent “to the basement,” where torture and possible death await.
[...]
These horrors await the rest of Ukraine if Putin wins. [...] Hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians will flee, putting enormous strain on Ukraine’s neighbors to the west. But thousands more will wind up in prison, facing torture or murder. Some commentators argue that it would be better to let Ukraine lose quickly because that, at least, would end the suffering. Yet for many millions of Ukrainians, defeat would be just the beginning of their suffering.
[...]
Which brings us to President-Elect Donald Trump, who now finds himself in a trap only partly of his own devising. When Trump said during his campaign that he could end the war in 24 hours, he presumably believed what most observers believed: that Putin needed a respite, that he was prepared to offer peace in exchange for territory, and that a deal would include some kind of security guarantee for whatever remained of Ukraine. Because Trump’s peace proposal at the time was regarded as such a bad deal for Kyiv, most assumed Putin would welcome it. Little did they know that the deal was not remotely bad enough for Putin to accept. So now Trump is in the position of having promised a peace deal that he cannot possibly get without forcing Putin to recalculate.
[...]
Trump has a credibility problem, partly due to the Biden administration’s failures, but partly of his own making. Putin knows what we all know: that Trump wants out of Ukraine. [...] Putin also knows that even if Trump eventually changes his mind, perhaps out of frustration with Putin’s stalling, it will be too late. Months would pass before an aid bill made it through both houses and weaponry began arriving on the battlefield. Putin watched that process grind on last year, and he used the time well. He can afford to wait. After all, if eight months from now Putin feels the tide about to turn against him in the war, he can make the same deal then that Trump would like him to make now.
[...]
Today, not only Putin but Xi, Kim, Khamenei, and others whom the American people generally regard as adversaries believe that a Russian victory in Ukraine will do grave damage to American strength everywhere. That is why they are pouring money, weaponry, and, in the case of North Korea, even their own soldiers into the battle. Whatever short-term benefits they may be deriving from assisting Russia, the big payoff they seek is a deadly blow to the American power and influence that has constrained them for decades.

What’s more, America’s allies around the world agree. They, too, believe that a Russian victory in Ukraine, in addition to threatening the immediate security of European states, will undo the American-led security system they depend on. That is why even Asian allies far from the scene of the war have been making their own contributions to the fight.

If Trump fails to support Ukraine, he faces the unpalatable prospect of presiding over a major strategic defeat.

[...]

When the fall of Ukraine comes, it will be hard to spin as anything but a defeat for the United States, and for its president.

This was not what Trump had in mind when he said he could get a peace deal in Ukraine. He no doubt envisioned being lauded as the statesman who persuaded Putin to make a deal, saving the world from the horrors of another endless war. His power and prestige would be enhanced. He would be a winner. His plans do not include being rebuffed, rolled over, and by most of the world’s judgment, defeated.
 
It is arguable whether or not it's a defeat for the US (it got "defeated" into selling trillion dollars worth of weapons and gaining control of the energy market in the Eu). But it makes no sense to argue that the defeat or "defeat" belongs to someone who isn't even back to being potus.
 
It is arguable whether or not it's a defeat for the US (it got "defeated" into selling trillion dollars worth of weapons and gaining control of the energy market in the Eu). But it makes no sense to argue that the defeat or "defeat" belongs to someone who isn't even back to being potus.

because, unless it takes less than 2 weeks or more than 4 years for Russia to win, he will be the one in charge at that time, and is the one that said he could stop the war on the current positions when he'll be in charge.

He's also the one that opposed the aid, with success (for Russia) in 2024.
 
Imo the US already won, one way or another. I have to assume that an actual victory would be a victory for Ukraine - and who expects that now?

Well looking at Russian economy and Soviet Stockpiles Russias pretty much done this year.

They won't be advancing fast until Maybe or June.
 
Moderator Action: Back to news rather than opinion please
 
US hits Russian oil with toughest sanctions yet in bid to give Ukraine, Trump leverage


Daleep Singh, a top White House economic and national security adviser, said in a statement that the measures were the "most significant sanctions yet on Russia’s energy sector, by far the largest source of revenue for (President Vladimir) Putin’s war".

The U.S. Treasury imposed sanctions on Gazprom Neft (SIBN.MM), opens new tab and Surgutneftegas, which explore for, produce and sell oil as well as 183 vessels that have shipped Russian oil, many of which are in the so-called shadow fleet of aging tankers operated by non-Western companies. The sanctions also include networks that trade the petroleum.
Many of those tankers have been used to ship oil to India and China as a price cap imposed by the Group of Seven countries in 2022 has shifted trade in Russian oil from Europe to Asia. Some tankers have shipped both Russian and Iranian oil.

The Treasury also rescinded a provision that had exempted the intermediation of energy payments from sanctions on Russian banks.
The sanctions should cost Russia billions of dollars per month if sufficiently enforced, another U.S. official told reporters in a call.
"There is not a step in the production and distribution chain that's untouched and that gives us greater confidence that evasion is going to be even more costly for Russia," the official said.

Gazprom Neft said the sanctions were unjustified and illegitimate and it will continue to operate.
[...]
sources in Russian oil trade and Indian refining said the sanctions will cause severe disruption of Russian oil exports to its major buyers India and China.
Global oil prices jumped more than 3% ahead of the Treasury announcement, with Brent crude nearing $80 a barrel, as a document mapping out the sanctions circulated among traders in Europe and Asia.

Geoffrey Pyatt, the U.S. assistant secretary for energy resources at the State Department, said there were new volumes of oil expected to come online this year from the United States, Guyana, Canada and Brazil and possibly out of the Middle East will fill in for any lost Russian supply.
[...]
One of the Biden officials said it was "entirely" up to the President-elect Trump, a Republican, who takes office on Jan. 20, when and on what terms he might lift sanctions imposed during the Biden era.

But to do so he would have to notify Congress and give it the ability to take a vote of disapproval, he said. Many Republican members of Congress had urged Biden to impose Friday's sanctions.
"Trump's people can't just come in and quietly lift everything that Biden just did. Congress would have to be involved," said Jeremy Paner, a partner at the law firm Hughes Hubbard & Reed.
The return of Trump has sparked hope of a diplomatic resolution to end Moscow's invasion but also fears in Kyiv that a quick peace could come at a high price for Ukraine.

The military aid and oil sanctions "provide the next administration a considerable boost to their and Ukraine's leverage in brokering a just and durable peace," one of the officials said.
 
Which Russian ports do the shadow fleet ships use to load their oil?
 
Aren't Russia's only access to the Baltic through St. Petersburg and Kaliningrad?
 
Thanks!

"In the 1980s the main part of USSR foreign trade shipments on the Baltic Sea went through the Baltic States. 25% of the total cargo turnover was from the Russian ports: Kaliningrad port, Big port Saint Petersburg, Vyborg port and Vysotsk port. In 1991 USSR collapsed, and Russian Federation appeared on its former territory along other new countries. 4 out of 9 USSR Baltic Ports were now on Russia’s territory, moreover, Kaliningrad port didn’t have a direct overland transport with the mainland. These ports’ capacity was not enough, and Russia had to pay other countries for using their ports and transferring cargoes on their territory (including shipments to Kaliningrad). In order to minimize the dependency on foreign harbours, in 1993 the government made a decision to build three new ports in Leningrad Oblast. One of them would become an alternative to the USSR’s biggest oil-loading port in Ventspils, Latvia.

The construction of Primorsk oil-loading port was initiated in 2000, the first row with two docks started operating in December of 2001.<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Port_of_Primorsk#cite_note-а-1"><span>[</span>1<span>]</span></a> Second and third started operating in 2004 and 2006 respectively, the amount of docks for tankers grew by four times. A terminal for transferring light petroleum products was opened."

Blockade time. Or, that port is less than 700 miles from Kyiv.
 
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the US already won
Definitely not the main beneficiary of the whole thing. The ones keeping quiet about their new hat are grinning. And militarizing faster than just about any country ever, but details.
 

Ukraine has captured two North Korean soldiers in Russia, Zelensky says​

The wounded fighters were taken to Kyiv for questioning, authorities said, where they could reveal details of Pyongyang’s cooperation with Moscow.

KYIV — Ukraine has captured two wounded North Korean soldiers from the battlefield in Russia’s Kursk region and transported them to Kyiv for questioning, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Saturday, the first time Ukraine has confirmed detaining North Korean troops since they were deployed late last year.

“Two soldiers, though wounded, survived and were transported to Kyiv, where they are now communicating with the Security Service of Ukraine,” Zelensky wrote on Instagram in a post that included photos of the prisoners. “This was not an easy task: Russian forces and other North Korean military personnel usually execute their wounded to erase any evidence of North Korea’s involvement in the war against Ukraine.”

“As with all prisoners of war, these two North Korean soldiers are receiving the necessary medical assistance,” he wrote. He said he had instructed security officials to grant journalists access to the prisoners. “The world needs to know the truth about what is happening.”

Ukraine’s internal security service, the SBU, said the capture provided “indisputable evidence” of North Korean involvement in the war. One of the soldiers was taken by Ukrainian special forces, the service said in a statement; the other, by Ukrainian paratroopers.

The prisoners, who were captured fighting in the small part of western Russia that Ukraine has controlled since August, could offer Kyiv important intelligence about the collaboration between Pyongyang and Moscow. Russia and North Korea signed a mutual defense pact in November, and Ukraine has said at least 11,000 North Korean troops have been deployed to help retake Ukrainian-occupied territory.
Ukrainian troops first reported the large-scale arrival of North Korean troops on the battlefield in mid-December and Zelensky said this week that at least 4,000 have already been killed or wounded.

Photos posted by Zelensky showed one soldier in a striped sweater lying in a cot in a detention center with both arms bandaged and another in a military jacket with swollen lips and bandages around his head. The second soldier is also shown sipping from a cup through a straw in a room with two sets of bunk beds. His lower bunk is the only one occupied. The room appears clean with a radiator and a window protected with metal bars.

The post includes posted photos of a passport-like Russian language document. It shows its bearer’s birth year as 1998. Ukrainian officials have warned for months that North Korean troops would be deployed with Russian documents to disguise their nationality.
The prisoners do not speak Ukrainian, English or Russian, the SBU said, so Ukraine is using Korean-language interpreters in cooperation with South Korea’s National Intelligence Service. The soldier with the bandaged arms told questioners the passport-like document was issued to him late last year in Russia, the service said. He said he believed he was being sent there for training. He said he was born in 2005 and had joined the North Korean military in 2021.

The other soldier, who wounded his jaw, answered questions in writing, the SBU said. He said he was born in 1999 and had served as a scout sniper in North Korea since 2016.

Video published by the SBU shows a Ukrainian doctor, his face blurred, saying a dentist will treat the soldier with the wounded jaw. The other soldier, the doctor says, has a fractured leg with an open wound. Ukrainian troops fighting in the Kursk region have described waves of Korean troops appearing on the battlefield in mid-December with little apparent preparation for the conflict as it’s being waged. They moved in large groups and appeared not to react to lethally armed drones hovering overhead. Unlike Russian soldiers, who typically move in small groups to avoid detection and flee drones, the North Korean soldiers plowed forward even as their fellow troops were killed and wounded beside them, Ukrainian soldiers have said.

Oleh, a Ukrainian special forces soldier fighting in Kursk, said his unit captured a badly wounded North Korean in late December, but he died within four hours, before he could be transported for questioning. Others, he said, have killed themselves with grenades to avoid capture.

 

Ukraine has captured two North Korean soldiers in Russia, Zelensky says​

The wounded fighters were taken to Kyiv for questioning, authorities said, where they could reveal details of Pyongyang’s cooperation with Moscow.

KYIV — Ukraine has captured two wounded North Korean soldiers from the battlefield in Russia’s Kursk region and transported them to Kyiv for questioning, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Saturday, the first time Ukraine has confirmed detaining North Korean troops since they were deployed late last year.

“Two soldiers, though wounded, survived and were transported to Kyiv, where they are now communicating with the Security Service of Ukraine,” Zelensky wrote on Instagram in a post that included photos of the prisoners. “This was not an easy task: Russian forces and other North Korean military personnel usually execute their wounded to erase any evidence of North Korea’s involvement in the war against Ukraine.”

“As with all prisoners of war, these two North Korean soldiers are receiving the necessary medical assistance,” he wrote. He said he had instructed security officials to grant journalists access to the prisoners. “The world needs to know the truth about what is happening.”

Ukraine’s internal security service, the SBU, said the capture provided “indisputable evidence” of North Korean involvement in the war. One of the soldiers was taken by Ukrainian special forces, the service said in a statement; the other, by Ukrainian paratroopers.

The prisoners, who were captured fighting in the small part of western Russia that Ukraine has controlled since August, could offer Kyiv important intelligence about the collaboration between Pyongyang and Moscow. Russia and North Korea signed a mutual defense pact in November, and Ukraine has said at least 11,000 North Korean troops have been deployed to help retake Ukrainian-occupied territory.
Ukrainian troops first reported the large-scale arrival of North Korean troops on the battlefield in mid-December and Zelensky said this week that at least 4,000 have already been killed or wounded.

Photos posted by Zelensky showed one soldier in a striped sweater lying in a cot in a detention center with both arms bandaged and another in a military jacket with swollen lips and bandages around his head. The second soldier is also shown sipping from a cup through a straw in a room with two sets of bunk beds. His lower bunk is the only one occupied. The room appears clean with a radiator and a window protected with metal bars.

The post includes posted photos of a passport-like Russian language document. It shows its bearer’s birth year as 1998. Ukrainian officials have warned for months that North Korean troops would be deployed with Russian documents to disguise their nationality.
The prisoners do not speak Ukrainian, English or Russian, the SBU said, so Ukraine is using Korean-language interpreters in cooperation with South Korea’s National Intelligence Service. The soldier with the bandaged arms told questioners the passport-like document was issued to him late last year in Russia, the service said. He said he believed he was being sent there for training. He said he was born in 2005 and had joined the North Korean military in 2021.

The other soldier, who wounded his jaw, answered questions in writing, the SBU said. He said he was born in 1999 and had served as a scout sniper in North Korea since 2016.

Video published by the SBU shows a Ukrainian doctor, his face blurred, saying a dentist will treat the soldier with the wounded jaw. The other soldier, the doctor says, has a fractured leg with an open wound. Ukrainian troops fighting in the Kursk region have described waves of Korean troops appearing on the battlefield in mid-December with little apparent preparation for the conflict as it’s being waged. They moved in large groups and appeared not to react to lethally armed drones hovering overhead. Unlike Russian soldiers, who typically move in small groups to avoid detection and flee drones, the North Korean soldiers plowed forward even as their fellow troops were killed and wounded beside them, Ukrainian soldiers have said.

Oleh, a Ukrainian special forces soldier fighting in Kursk, said his unit captured a badly wounded North Korean in late December, but he died within four hours, before he could be transported for questioning. Others, he said, have killed themselves with grenades to avoid capture.



The video has subtitles.
 
Baltic Sea is also used, not just to drag anchors over critical cables, but to prepare another ecological disaster with decrepit oil tankers.


Should Putin resort to weaponize these tankers via oil environmental disasters, the consequence could simply be that the Finnish Gulf and the Danish straits will be closed for all oil tankers going to and from Russian ports in the Baltic.
 
Should Putin resort to weaponize these tankers via oil environmental disasters, the consequence could simply be that the Finnish Gulf and the Danish straits will be closed for all oil tankers going to and from Russian ports in the Baltic.
He already has weaponized them.
 
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