[RD] Russia Invades Ukraine: Eight

[Sarin]

So then there are no rules and it doesn’t matter if anyone declares war or kills civilians or not. Let’s just make sure we’re agreed on that point before I pursue this equivocation with you.

I mean maybe Russia is the source of all evil. But that hasn’t been demonstrated. Only insisted upon. Much like the legal status and authority of the Ukrainian government since this whole affair began ten years ago amidst coups and political mischief.

This was about espionage. You have decided to extend it to everything, which is a strawman. This is typical Russian propaganda tune, when their actions are morally indefensible: "everyone is as bad as we are."

Nobody argued that Russia is source of all evil. What is usually said is that current Russian government, and apparently prevailing Russian nationalistic sentiment that fuels the aggression, are evil. And that has been amply demonstrated by the invasion. And the eight years of Russia-created and backed insurrection. And the annexation of Crimea. And the invasion of Georgia, the brutal oppression of political opposition, and on and on...

BTW, the status of the Ukrainian government draws its status and borders from recognition by its citizens and almost every other government in the world, its constitution, and multiple international treaties, including but not limited to UN membership, Belovezha Accords, Budapest Memorandum and Treaty of Friendship between Ukraine and Russia.

 

[REDY]

The place is just next to my home. No better way to feel the stupidity and exaggeration from all the sides, including Western media.

The crowd is too joyful for a funeral. Too casual for something real, as usual for Navalnists (shouting "czar, go away" for Instagram changes nothing). Too little, considering the supposed scale, and if you compare it to a firework festival which happens here at the same place in August, bringing real crowds of people. And on top of that, Navalnists are mostly atheist or strongly anti-Church... and now, going into religious mourning, seriously?

The policemen are either in confused or detached mood. First, some days before, they've been checking with the appartments in the area, not knowing and not able to clarify what the heck, why they are suddenly so interested in who lives where, especially immigrants and tenants. Then they've brought dozens of cars, put fences as if preparing for another festival or arresting a terrorist. There were even guys with climbing equipment put to one of the buildings... Wut, seriously?

There's probably some point in putting some policemen to the most immediate location where all is happening, but putting them like that around the area is just pointless, especially when noone cares about what's happening, as if they do it for the sole sake of appearance. But that makes some show.

And then we have this fool's media with words like "defying Kremlin", lol. If that is defying Kremlin, then I've defied Kremlin arguing with some of these pointless cops where I should and shouldn't walk living here. Or "everyone is on edge". Noone is on edge. The Navalnist are relaxed. The policemen are relaxed or unhappy with extra work. Locals like me are relaxed or unhappy with their common everyday routes of movement or deliviries being obstructed by something pointless.

And to sum all said, at the end of they day my GF asked me trying to recollect who Navalny is, a Ukranian? Lol.

Politicized folks were always a minority. But now even them care less about politics. Seriously, after all that crazy BS and self-discrediting of all the sides everywhere for the past years. Whitch-hunting lockdowns, crazy war(s), sanctions, hipocrite Western media, impotent opposition... Whatever side sane person has chosen in any of these BS in the past, sanity will drive him out and away from these matters.

Like Navalny would be sentenced for arguing with cops. I guess if you would kill some cops, you still risk less than "relaxed" Navalnists.
Hard to argue with religion and church when there is Russian ortodox church. Its like blaming people to be not great christians when they do not respect Judas.
There were 8 brave protesting on red square against invasion of Czechoslovakia. Yes they would live better lives if they would not protest and they did not change anything, just made it to textbooks of obscure european country.
Navalny is not force of good, hes just victim of evil. Maybe he would be just more competent Putin, we will never know.
Playing idiot is the best way to survive in such situation, I do not argue with that. But do not call it sane.

 

[Crezth]

This was about espionage. You have decided to extend it to everything, which is a strawman.

Wrong. I've really only extended it to the war, and the ongoing hostilities, which it is absolutely a part of and always has been. It's meaningless to suggest that espionage, which involves building secret bases staffed by secret armies engaging in secret counterterrorism operations against secret lists of hostiles, isn't a theater of war. The only distinction that espionage has from other forms of military aggression is the plausible deniability element.

This is typical Russian propaganda tune, when their actions are morally indefensible: "everyone is as bad as we are."

Every country does, in fact, do this.

Nobody argued that Russia is source of all evil. What is usually said is that current Russian government, and apparently prevailing Russian nationalistic sentiment that fuels the aggression, are evil. And that has been amply demonstrated by the invasion.

This is begging the question actually if the argument is that it was an unprovoked invasion. Otherwise,

And the eight years of Russia-created and backed insurrection. And the annexation of Crimea. And the invasion of Georgia,

You now have the problem of proving the bolded claim. Russia's leadership and its prevailing nationalism are evil and the proof of that claim is that, that is to say, since they engaged in an unprovoked attack. But then what were the 8 years? According to you, one-sided aggression on the part of Russians who were simply bullying Ukraine. This is exactly where your argument falls apart, however, because you cannot explain why Crimea didn't want to be annexed to Ukraine in the first place, and you cannot explain why there was an electoral crisis without simply blaming the Russians for manufacturing it - without evidence, might I add, and against voluminous testimonies on the ground that Ukraine did in fact continually exacerbate the situation - for example, by shelling Donetsk - assuming to itself unilateral authority to overturn certain election results all with the excuse that Russia is to blame.

But the fact is that Russia didn't invade until 2022. So by the numbers it looks like, if you gave Russia the benefit of the doubt, they let the issue sit for 8 years before they could tolerate Ukraine's willful disregard of the issues it had raised no more. In that same period of time, meanwhile, American troops were stomping around Ukraine and putting separatists six feet under. Maybe every separatist was a Russian partisan. But where's the proof of that? There is no proof. They could all be real separatists who really belong to a demographic that is really excluded from the elite political culture of Kyiv. How can you be sure they aren't? And how can you be sure they all deserve to die at the hands of paramilitary death squads?

the brutal oppression of political opposition, and on and on...

And it's Ukrainian town halls into which Zelensky's MPs are throwing grenades. This paints a very bad picture of the entire political structure and organization of eastern Europe that goes beyond "western side good, eastern side bad."

BTW, the status of the Ukrainian government draws its status and borders from recognition by its citizens and almost every other government in the world, its constitution, and multiple international treaties, including but not limited to UN membership, Belovezha Accords, Budapest Memorandum and Treaty of Friendship between Ukraine and Russia.

Oh, sure, in theory - but any mob wandering into Kyiv with enough guns can become the "real" government of Ukraine at that rate. That's exactly the problem in the big picture. Whose votes should you count? The armed mobs or the Putin plants? Remember it never matters as much who votes as who counts the votes, and bullets can help a lot with that.

 

[ConquestsMaster]

The place is just next to my home. No better way to feel the stupidity and exaggeration from all the sides, including Western media.

The crowd is too joyful for a funeral. Too casual for something real, as usual for Navalnists (shouting "czar, go away" for Instagram changes nothing). Too little, considering the supposed scale, and if you compare it to a firework festival which happens here at the same place in August, bringing real crowds of people. And on top of that, Navalnists are mostly atheist or strongly anti-Church... and now, going into religious mourning, seriously?

The policemen are either in confused or detached mood. First, some days before, they've been checking with the appartments in the area, not knowing and not able to clarify what the heck, why they are suddenly so interested in who lives where, especially immigrants and tenants. Then they've brought dozens of cars, put fences as if preparing for another festival or arresting a terrorist. There were even guys with climbing equipment put to one of the buildings... Wut, seriously?

There's probably some point in putting some policemen to the most immediate location where all is happening, but putting them like that around the area is just pointless, especially when noone cares about what's happening, as if they do it for the sole sake of appearance. But that makes some show.

And then we have this fool's media with words like "defying Kremlin", lol. If that is defying Kremlin, then I've defied Kremlin arguing with some of these pointless cops where I should and shouldn't walk living here. Or "everyone is on edge". Noone is on edge. The Navalnist are relaxed. The policemen are relaxed or unhappy with extra work. Locals like me are relaxed or unhappy with their common everyday routes of movement or deliviries being obstructed by something pointless.

And to sum all said, at the end of they day my GF asked me trying to recollect who Navalny is, a Ukranian? Lol.

Politicized folks were always a minority. But now even them care less about politics. Seriously, after all that crazy BS and self-discrediting of all the sides everywhere for the past years. Whitch-hunting lockdowns, crazy war(s), sanctions, hipocrite Western media, impotent opposition... Whatever side sane person has chosen in any of these BS in the past, sanity will drive him out and away from these matters.

Western media using cheap sensationalism to make a big story out of a non-story is nothing new. The way they've always tried to frame Navalny as some kind of popular figure fighting heroically for freedom is a good example. While in reality, it doesn't seem like he has ever posed a serious challenge to Putin's regime.

But don't you think there's something odd about the discussions around him? Every time his name pops somewhere in a forum online. In a matter of seconds, someone will come and reply that once in 2007 he compared Muslims from the Caucasus to cockroaches (it happened in this very thread). This is a depiction of him that does not just appear "organically" online but that is also pushed directly by Russian state propagandists. And once this is said. The same people will usually focus their comments on the fact that he is irrelevant and unknown, sometimes at great length like in your post. Which is odd, because if he was so unknown how do people know this stuff about him? And if he is irrelevant, why are there so many people eager to quickly and aggressively discredit him?

I don't particularly care for the guy. And as I said, I don't think Putin or most Russians ever perceived him as a serious threat to the current regime. But is there any popular and well-organized opposition to Putin's rule? To me it always seemed like there was none? The Communist Party? What are their odds of winning the election? How harsh are they in their criticism of Putin? Or any of the "systemic" opposition parties that seem more loyal to Putin than to their own party and ideals?

If Putin wants to maintain his hold on power (and it seems like this has been the case for the last 24 years), he has to quash the opposition. Should he do this once a leader and movement has grown enough in popularity to be a serious threat? Or should he be swift instead, and marginalize and suppress the opposition as it is being organized and while it still "irrelevant" (like Navalny apparently was)? The second option makes much more sense for any leader with a bit of intelligence.

Most Russians are either supportive of Putin or "apolitical". So why does the police bother arresting and harassing the very small number of people holding blank pieces of paper and protesting the war? Surely the regime does not feel threatened by those people as they are even more irrelevant than Navalny. Well, the truth, as with Navalny, is probably that the main goal is not so much to suppress one particular opposition movement in its infancy, but to discourage everybody else from ever considering organizing opposition movements against the current regime. So it doesn't even matter if the particular movement being suppressed was predicted or not to grow and pose a serious challenge one day. Oh and before somebody comes and accuses me of focusing unfairly on Russia, I do it simply because it is the subject of this thread. These strategies to maintain power are seen across the globe and are not unique to Russia.

And they probably work. They make it seem as if there is nothing to gain and everything to lose by protesting and particiapting in political movements. I am sure that in Russia I would be like you and your girlfiend, mostly uninterested by the whole political circus. I've lived in different countries, each with its own political circus that has also made me cynical and apatehtical. It doesn't take long to become disilusioned.

Still I have never been somewhere where the circus involved Novichok poisonings and opposition figures being sent to penal colonies in the Arctic. And these are the subjects that are always ignored in these threads. Why was Navalny poisoined by Novichok in 2020? What were the accusations that then led to him being sent to a Siberian penal colony? Was his trial and punishment fair? Most of us never cared about him, but it seems like at least some people did if they bothered to do all of that to him. And it's not an isolated case. The same could be said of other people critical of the regime like Anna Politkovskaya, who was directly threatened by Kadyrov and his goons, poisoned and then shot in her own home. Anyway, we'll hear a lot about Navalny's Muslim cockroaches and his total irrelevance, but usually we get total silence about all those other things surrounding him and similar opposition figures.

 

[saamohod]

Ukraine did in fact continually exacerbate the situation - for example, by shelling Donetsk

You are aware there was a frontline right next to Donetsk all these years and both sides - Ukrainian army and the Russian invaders - were shelling each other with varying degrees of intensity? Donetsk was and still is a major hub for Russian military logistics since the initial invasion phase in 2014.
What's more important, those of you who incessantly babble about "bombing of Donetsk" always ignore the fact that Donetsk has all this time been a pretty much intact and a functioning city. Unlike all those Donbass cities that only exist in Wikipedia articles because Russia turned them into piles of rubble and dust.

but any mob wandering into Kyiv with enough guns can become the "real" government of Ukraine at that rate.

You literally described what was happening in Donetsk/Luhansk in 2014. And what later happened in other regions of Ukraine in 2022 that have nothing to do with the "people of Donbass": Kharkiv, Zaporizhia, my Kherson. Mobs of armed men on tanks with Z-insignia appeared in our towns and cities and became the "real" government against the will of the overwhelming majority of citizens.

This is begging the question actually if the argument is that it was an unprovoked invasion.

Of course it wasn't. The existence of an independent non-Russia-alligned state on Russia's borders has for centuries been a legitimate provocation for Russian state (and often for many ordinary Russians too). That's the reason why all those countries that border Russia try to join NATO whenever a slightest opportunity arises.

 

[Birdjaguar]

Moderator Action: Back to current news please. Pre invasion events should be discussed in a new thread you make.

 

[Sarin]

Wrong. I've really only extended it to the war, and the ongoing hostilities, which it is absolutely a part of and always has been. It's meaningless to suggest that espionage, which involves building secret bases staffed by secret armies engaging in secret counterterrorism operations against secret lists of hostiles, isn't a theater of war. The only distinction that espionage has from other forms of military aggression is the plausible deniability element.

Wrong. The main distinction between espionage and open hostilities is that the former is mean to be very discriminate, while the latter is very much indiscriminate by principle.

Every country does, in fact, do this.

Bold, but without evidence, empty statement. Prove it.

This is begging the question actually if the argument is that it was an unprovoked invasion. Otherwise,

You now have the problem of proving the bolded claim. Russia's leadership and its prevailing nationalism are evil and the proof of that claim is that, that is to say, since they engaged in an unprovoked attack. But then what were the 8 years? According to you, one-sided aggression on the part of Russians who were simply bullying Ukraine. This is exactly where your argument falls apart, however, because you cannot explain why Crimea didn't want to be annexed to Ukraine in the first place, and you cannot explain why there was an electoral crisis without simply blaming the Russians for manufacturing it - without evidence, might I add, and against voluminous testimonies on the ground that Ukraine did in fact continually exacerbate the situation - for example, by shelling Donetsk - assuming to itself unilateral authority to overturn certain election results all with the excuse that Russia is to blame.

But the fact is that Russia didn't invade until 2022. So by the numbers it looks like, if you gave Russia the benefit of the doubt, they let the issue sit for 8 years before they could tolerate Ukraine's willful disregard of the issues it had raised no more. In that same period of time, meanwhile, American troops were stomping around Ukraine and putting separatists six feet under. Maybe every separatist was a Russian partisan. But where's the proof of that? There is no proof. They could all be real separatists who really belong to a demographic that is really excluded from the elite political culture of Kyiv. How can you be sure they aren't? And how can you be sure they all deserve to die at the hands of paramilitary death squads?

Russia did invade in 2014, covertly. There is plenty of evidence. I suggest you look up interviews that Girkin, field commander of Russian operatives in Ukraine, gave to Russian state media where he described what happened. According to him, the separatists were very much minority without real power or influence, most people weren't supportive of them. The insurrection was achieved by taking over the government structures in the areas by armed assault, intimidation and execution of uncooperative government officials, and attacking Ukrainian military.
But the insurrection was heading toward stalemate, and Putin felt, due to false belief that Ukraine will fold and welcome him, that he could bring the whole country back into the pre-2014 vassalage by full-scale invasion. There's plenty of evidence for that. I suggest skimming the previous threads for that, bits and pieces of it are all over them.

 

[saamohod]

Another bombing raid in Odessa a couple of hours ago. Civilian casualties reported.

 

[ConquestsMaster]

Wrong. I've really only extended it to the war, and the ongoing hostilities, which it is absolutely a part of and always has been. It's meaningless to suggest that espionage, which involves building secret bases staffed by secret armies engaging in secret counterterrorism operations against secret lists of hostiles, isn't a theater of war. The only distinction that espionage has from other forms of military aggression is the plausible deniability element.

Every country does, in fact, do this.

This is begging the question actually if the argument is that it was an unprovoked invasion. Otherwise,

You now have the problem of proving the bolded claim. Russia's leadership and its prevailing nationalism are evil and the proof of that claim is that, that is to say, since they engaged in an unprovoked attack. But then what were the 8 years? According to you, one-sided aggression on the part of Russians who were simply bullying Ukraine. This is exactly where your argument falls apart, however, because you cannot explain why Crimea didn't want to be annexed to Ukraine in the first place, and you cannot explain why there was an electoral crisis without simply blaming the Russians for manufacturing it - without evidence, might I add, and against voluminous testimonies on the ground that Ukraine did in fact continually exacerbate the situation - for example, by shelling Donetsk - assuming to itself unilateral authority to overturn certain election results all with the excuse that Russia is to blame.

But the fact is that Russia didn't invade until 2022. So by the numbers it looks like, if you gave Russia the benefit of the doubt, they let the issue sit for 8 years before they could tolerate Ukraine's willful disregard of the issues it had raised no more. In that same period of time, meanwhile, American troops were stomping around Ukraine and putting separatists six feet under. Maybe every separatist was a Russian partisan. But where's the proof of that? There is no proof. They could all be real separatists who really belong to a demographic that is really excluded from the elite political culture of Kyiv. How can you be sure they aren't? And how can you be sure they all deserve to die at the hands of paramilitary death squads?

And it's Ukrainian town halls into which Zelensky's MPs are throwing grenades. This paints a very bad picture of the entire political structure and organization of eastern Europe that goes beyond "western side good, eastern side bad."

Oh, sure, in theory - but any mob wandering into Kyiv with enough guns can become the "real" government of Ukraine at that rate. That's exactly the problem in the big picture. Whose votes should you count? The armed mobs or the Putin plants? Remember it never matters as much who votes as who counts the votes, and bullets can help a lot with that.

Bro. Why do you always go back to the reasons for the invasion while this very thread was created to avoid this.

This is begging the question actually if the argument is that it was an unprovoked invasion.

This has been discussed ad nauseam and in a way is futile to debate. Almost every country in the history of mankind that has suffered from an invasion could be said to have provoked it by not caving to the demands of the invaders without fighting. Anyway, if you argue that international "law" is useless and biased, why do you waste energy bending backwards to depict the invasion as justified and Kyiv's government as illegitimate. Debating the legitimacy of the government also seems somewhat futile in the same way. Every other country that has ever had a coup or revolution could be said to be illegitimate and ripe for conquest...

And why do you constantly use the same straw man?

Russia's leadership and its prevailing nationalism are evil

We're discussing current events in Ukraine. Where every violent escalation from Russia is causing untold amounts of suffering to the population it pretends to want to protect. Nobody's presenting this fight as a fight of perfect Good vs absolute Evil. But you keep repeating that to feel like you're owning some noobs online.

American troops were stomping around Ukraine and putting separatists six feet under

You're even misinterpreting the very article you posted. How are some CIA spooks hiding in basements being magically transformed in your head as American troops killing Donbass insurgents?

Maybe every separatist was a Russian partisan. But where's the proof of that?

Absolutely nobody is claiming that. Why do you ask people to prove things they have never claimed lol?

This paints a very bad picture of the entire political structure and organization of eastern Europe

A bit more of the usual ad hominem against Ukraine (and now the whole of Eastern Europe!) and false equivalence too. At least good job for putting it more politely than the other guy who insisted on repeatedly characterizing Ukraine as a "sh*thole". Everybody knows that Ukraine is far from perfect. Still, in no way was the political repression there before the war comparable to that of Russia. But in any case, it's irrelevant so I don't know why you guys keep bringing it up. It does not in any way justify the invasion, nor does it preclude people from criticizing it. If you wanna discuss these issues open another thread.

"western side good, eastern side bad."

Again, nobody is saying that.

Overall it seems like you're debating an imaginary enemy in your head that makes you angry. You barely address the points people make in this thread. You're too busy being enraged by the people in your head that think "US always good, Russia always bad". Considering that this thread is not about the US, it's not surprising that there are more posts about Russia. Sure the US sends spies to Ukraine. But you might be surprised by this one, Russia also constantly sends spies to Ukraine! (and to Mexico too, right on the border with the US!) Sure you might say that the US has been pushing pro-Western movements and politicians in Ukraine. You might also be surprised by this one, but Russia does the same thing with pro-Russian movements and politicians! (see Putin's BFF Viktor Medvedchuk lol, or I dunno, the Donbass insurgency?).

That's where the equivalences stop tho. Currently in Ukraine, there's only one country sending hundreds of thousands of troops across borders it had previously recognized to now conquer large territories and millions of people. There's currently only one country reducing entire cities to rubble. There's currently only one country dropping huge amounts of explosives that will plague the land for decades. There's currently only on country trying to subjugate the other with its military. And there's only one leader repeatedly trying to deny and erase the nationhood of his (self-created) enemies.

This obsession with depicting the US as bad would make sense in a lot of threads. But in this particular one, it's kind of a strange hill to die on. Sure the US has done all of these things in the past in other places. But this is not the thread about it. Open a thread about the Iraq War or the US secret operations in Latin America during the Cold War, and you'll see that a lot of the people here that you seem to depict as thinking "US good, Russia bad" will be critical of the brutality of US foreign policy and its awful hypocrisy.

Anyway, in the news. Russia has been pushing a bit west of Avdiivka. But also west of Bakhmut in the direction of Chasiv Yar:

https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-...rlands-rutte-834a052c21296c87b6edd925364ba2aa

Ukraine official says Russia massing forces around a key city in the country's east​

By SUSIE BLANN

5–6 minutes

---

Updated 2:08 PM EST, March 1, 2024
KYIV (AP) — Russia is accumulating large forces around Chasiv Yar in eastern Ukraine as it seeks to make a breakthrough in the Donetsk region, a Ukrainian official said Friday.
Illia Yevlash, spokesperson for the operational group overseeing the eastern front line, told Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty that Russian forces were concentrating efforts to make a powerful push on the key strategic city to the west of Bakhmut, which fell to Moscow last May, hoping to to advance toward Kostiantynivka, Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.
Ukrainian forces battling Russian efforts to advance in the Bakhmut direction say they have been experiencing a large Russian push over the last three weeks and are facing constant attacks as Moscow troops send in wave after wave of infantry and target them with a variety of artillery and drones.

With the full-scale war now into its third year, Russian forces have been bludgeoning some Ukrainian defensive positions into submission, deploying overwhelming amounts of artillery and troop numbers in an effort to punch through defensive lines at targeted points.
Though Russia’s gains have been small, slow and costly, Ukraine doesn’t have enough reservists and has a severe shortage of artillery shells as the supply of military aid from Western partners has waned.

During a visit to Ukraine’s eastern Kharkiv region on Friday, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte and President Voldymyr Zelenskyy signed a bilateral security agreement which included 2 billion euros in military aid from the Netherlands this year and further defense assistance over the next 10 years.
In a post on X, formerly Twitter, Zelenskyy said the deal prioritized “the provision of air defense, artillery, sea and long-range capabilities, with a particular emphasis on strengthening Ukraine’s air force.”
A spokesman for the 17th separate tank brigade told The Associated Press that despite limited resources Ukrainian forces were trying their best to adjust their defense to the ever-changing Russian tactics, even as troops on the ground reported they could not respond with the same firepower and personnel as Russia is able to use against them.

The commander of the tank company working in the Bakhmut direction said “⁠You can really feel it, the density of fire is higher.” “When we can make 10 shots, they can make 50, they have an advantage over us in ammunition, it’s undeniable. And also, there is an advantage in manpower,” said Dmytro, 28, who only gave his first name due to security concerns. Earlier this month, Russia took the strategic eastern city of Avdiivka by overwhelming Ukrainian forces with large numbers of troops and superior air and artillery firepower.
Russia’s tactics in that battle, including its use of drones and dozens of aerial bombs to obliterate Ukrainian positions in the city, has raised concerns it could replicate the same methods elsewhere along the front line if Western aid to support air-defense systems and supplies of long-range weapons and artillery does not come through soon.
Last August, Washington authorized allies to give F-16 warplanes to Ukraine. The Netherlands along with Denmark announced they would supply the fighter jets to Kyiv but the timeline on delivery depended on how soon Ukrainian crews and infrastructure could be readied.
In a post on Telegram, Zelenskyy said new fighter jets would be in the skies this year.
“We have to make this year an effective one in defending ourselves against Russian guided bombs, Russian aircraft, and their missiles,” Zelenskyy said.
In a post on Friday, Ukraine’s defense ministry said the armed forces had shot down 13 Russian aircraft in February, which included 10 Su-34 fighter-bombers, 2 Su-3 fighters and 1 A-50 long-range radar detection and control aircraft. “This is the best result since October 2022. We are grateful to our soldiers for their efficient work. And to our partners — for strengthening the air defense capabilities of Ukraine,” the defense ministry said.

 

[Crezth]

Russia signed a treaty in 1994 committing itself to respect Ukraine's territorial integrity as a condition of the latter giving up its nuclear weapons. So Russia in fact recognized "the legal status and authority of the Ukrainian government."

This was before Euromaidan and the shelling of Donetsk.

Even if it was a couple it's a Ukrainian internal matter. That doesn't justify a land grab invasion.

But it actually wasn’t internal and especially not from the view of the Russians. Here it’s a clear case to them of America installing a friendly government, moving its secret armies in, and beginning the process of making sure there is no such thing as an “eastern separatist.” And they still sat on that for 8 years.

Arguably the only reason the invasion happened in 2022 was because they sensed weakness in the Americans.

There is actually real distance between eastern and western Ukrainians and the policy of the post-Euromaidan government has been to crush the easterners. It became trivial for Russia to claim it was protecting its people based on how it all went down.

Wrong. The main distinction between espionage and open hostilities is that the former is mean to be very discriminate, while the latter is very much indiscriminate by principle.

I didn’t say “open,” just hostilities. My entire point is actually that the hostilities were just as important for shaping the course of the conflict before they were open. I’ll prove my point after the next snip.

Bold, but without evidence, empty statement. Prove it.

Clearly, I view it as an axiom.

Russia did invade in 2014, covertly. There is plenty of evidence. I suggest you look up interviews that Girkin, field commander of Russian operatives in Ukraine, gave to Russian state media where he described what happened. According to him, the separatists were very much minority without real power or influence, most people weren't supportive of them. The insurrection was achieved by taking over the government structures in the areas by armed assault, intimidation and execution of uncooperative government officials, and attacking Ukrainian military.
But the insurrection was heading toward stalemate, and Putin felt, due to false belief that Ukraine will fold and welcome him, that he could bring the whole country back into the pre-2014 vassalage by full-scale invasion. There's plenty of evidence for that. I suggest skimming the previous threads for that, bits and pieces of it are all over them.

So, if it’s “known” to you that Russia invaded before 2022, then hostilities have actually been open since 2014. Meaning the Russians who “knew” the CIA had invaded Ukraine and taken it over through the artifice of Euromaidan could, by the exact same token, reckon that they were dealing with an openly hostile America. So now what? Winner takes all? Might makes right?

The flaw in your reasoning is that you inherently seem to believe America is reacting and their presence in Ukraine is defensive. Because Ukraine “asked” for help. Just as the separatists asked Russia for help.

 

[Kaitzilla]

So what punishment for the CIA’s secret armies that have been stomping around Ukraine for ten years?

The Spy War: How the C.I.A. Secretly Helps Ukraine Fight Putin (Published 2024)

For more than a decade, the United States has nurtured a secret intelligence partnership with Ukraine that is now critical for both countries in countering Russia.

www.nytimes.com

Fully armed with American personnel too. I guess it goes to show you can call any attack “unprovoked” if you just pretend provocation isn’t real.

Whoa, secret CIA-supported bases in Ukraine for 10 years along Russia's border.

Here is another link to read such an important story.

https://archive.is/LiAJZ

The details of this intelligence partnership, many of which are being disclosed by The New York Times for the first time, have been a closely guarded secret for a decade.

 

[Comrade Ceasefire]

They tried already, and will again, of course, we do know that one of the strong assets in Russia's hybrid war is propaganda.

Stars of David tags in Paris linked to pro-Russia interference: reports

Paris graffiti aimed to sow unrest in French society — a classic Russian move.

www.politico.eu

France blames Russia’s FSB for anti-Semitic Star of David graffiti campaign

France believes that Russia's security service FSB was behind a campaign in which Star of David graffiti were daubed on buildings in and around Paris last autumn, a French source said Friday.

www.france24.com

But hey, it's fine, as long as it's Russia doing it in western countries. Because when it's western spies helping for counter-espionage in a western country on the other hand, it means war and death for half a million people in that country.

I can't imagine how Russia would react to a destabilization operation inside its territory.

I imagine they would hunt down the perps, arrest them and put them on trial, or if they decided to fight, shoot them there and then.
Vicious, but that's what you'll have to learn to cope with eventually. They are not fighting with rapiers on staircases, nor are they able to appeal to a tribunal to complain that it was against the rules when a Russian kicked them in the face and damaged their plumed hat.

 

[Comrade Ceasefire]

Except Tucker Carlson is a total epiphenomenon – he matters not.

Currently the more interesting media discussions are the readings of Putin's latest program statement in that recent major speech:

Unless he ends up as Trump's running mate.
12 Dec 2023: Tucker Carlson said God would have to 'yell' at him before he would join Donald Trump's campaign as a running-mate.

Tucker Carlson reveals what would need to happen for him to be Trump’s running-mate

Carlson described himself as a ‘well-paid street corner schizophrenic’

www.independent.co.uk

19 Jan 2024 — Donald Trump Jr suggests Tucker Carlson as a potential VP running mate for his father.

Donald Trump's Son Suggests Tucker Carlson as Potential Vice Presidential Running Mate | World News - Times of India

US News: Donald Trump's son, Donald Trump Jr, suggests Tucker Carlson as a potential vice presidential running mate for his father. Carlson, a conservative pundit, has recently launched his own media company and video show on the social media platform X. Trump Jr highlights their shared views on...

timesofindia.indiatimes.com

Who knows what his position in the fiasco will be by November 2024.

 

[Crezth]

Bro. Why do you always go back to the reasons for the invasion while this very thread was created to avoid this.

I’m talking about the article I posted. You should read it.

 

[Comrade Ceasefire]

Interesting that the western media doesn't mention (if they even actually know) the largest parties and groups who have a claim to being the main Opposition to Putin's coalition.
They keep on with the narrative that Navalny was the leader, while those in Russia who remember him think he's an inconsequential racist grifter who couldn't get enough votes himself, or with affiliates to win a single seat in the Duma.
I'm happy to be proven wrong - perhaps someone did win a seat once, somewhere following Navalny's line?

 

[saamohod]

Anyway, in the news. Russia has been pushing a bit west of Avdiivka. But also west of Bakhmut in the direction of Chasiv Yar:

Weird. We've been told by our Russian representatives here that the noble goal of taking erasing Avdiivka was just to push the front away from Donetsk so that there is no more "shelling of Donetsk". But now it appears that it's just the good ol' ongoing landgrab and destruction of other Ukrainian cities.

Whoa, secret CIA-supported bases in Ukraine for 10 years along Russia's border.

It seems like for some reason the US admin tried to prevent Ukraine from being one more time force-vassalized by Russia. Why do you have problems with that?
Also, it's a very exciting piece of an article, but it seems to heavily rely on the notorious "undisclosed sources".

Arguably the only reason the invasion happened in 2022 was because they sensed weakness in the Americans.

This is for sure. The whole West in general.

CIA had invaded Ukraine

This is not the definition of the word "invasion". There is another true invasion happening right in front of your eyes this thread is all about. The words you may wanna take a note of are "uninvited", "overt", "brutal" etc.

 

[Sarin]

Western media using cheap sensationalism to make a big story out of a non-story is nothing new. The way they've always tried to frame Navalny as some kind of popular figure fighting heroically for freedom is a good example. While in reality, it doesn't seem like he has ever posed a serious challenge to Putin's regime.

But don't you think there's something odd about the discussions around him? Every time his name pops somewhere in a forum online. In a matter of seconds, someone will come and reply that once in 2007 he compared Muslims from the Caucasus to cockroaches (it happened in this very thread). This is a depiction of him that does not just appear "organically" online but that is also pushed directly by Russian state propagandists. And once this is said. The same people will usually focus their comments on the fact that he is irrelevant and unknown, sometimes at great length like in your post. Which is odd, because if he was so unknown how do people know this stuff about him? And if he is irrelevant, why are there so many people eager to quickly and aggressively discredit him?

I don't particularly care for the guy. And as I said, I don't think Putin or most Russians ever perceived him as a serious threat to the current regime. But is there any popular and well-organized opposition to Putin's rule? To me it always seemed like there was none? The Communist Party? What are their odds of winning the election? How harsh are they in their criticism of Putin? Or any of the "systemic" opposition parties that seem more loyal to Putin than to their own party and ideals?

If Putin wants to maintain his hold on power (and it seems like this has been the case for the last 24 years), he has to quash the opposition. Should he do this once a leader and movement has grown enough in popularity to be a serious threat? Or should he be swift instead, and marginalize and suppress the opposition as it is being organized and while it still "irrelevant" (like Navalny apparently was)? The second option makes much more sense for any leader with a bit of intelligence.

Most Russians are either supportive of Putin or "apolitical". So why does the police bother arresting and harassing the very small number of people holding blank pieces of paper and protesting the war? Surely the regime does not feel threatened by those people as they are even more irrelevant than Navalny. Well, the truth, as with Navalny, is probably that the main goal is not so much to suppress one particular opposition movement in its infancy, but to discourage everybody else from ever considering organizing opposition movements against the current regime. So it doesn't even matter if the particular movement being suppressed was predicted or not to grow and pose a serious challenge one day. Oh and before somebody comes and accuses me of focusing unfairly on Russia, I do it simply because it is the subject of this thread. These strategies to maintain power are seen across the globe and are not unique to Russia.

And they probably work. They make it seem as if there is nothing to gain and everything to lose by protesting and particiapting in political movements. I am sure that in Russia I would be like you and your girlfiend, mostly uninterested by the whole political circus. I've lived in different countries, each with its own political circus that has also made me cynical and apatehtical. It doesn't take long to become disilusioned.

Still I have never been somewhere where the circus involved Novichok poisonings and opposition figures being sent to penal colonies in the Arctic. And these are the subjects that are always ignored in these threads. Why was Navalny poisoined by Novichok in 2020? What were the accusations that then led to him being sent to a Siberian penal colony? Was his trial and punishment fair? Most of us never cared about him, but it seems like at least some people did if they bothered to do all of that to him. And it's not an isolated case. The same could be said of other people critical of the regime like Anna Politkovskaya, who was directly threatened by Kadyrov and his goons, poisoned and then shot in her own home. Anyway, we'll hear a lot about Navalny's Muslim cockroaches and his total irrelevance, but usually we get total silence about all those other things surrounding him and similar opposition figures.

That's because in truth, Navalny was the one who could have seriously threatened Putin, under right circumstances.

Russia's political landscape is very unusual from the western perspective. Few people support or even understand the idea of liberal democracy. Decades of Soviet propaganda and a lot of historical inertia saw to that. Most people are politically apathetic, and among those more active, the prevailing tendencies are nationalistic, and reactionary to the west, whom they see as cause of Russia's downfall in the 90's.
Navalny was a nationalist who understood that. He could have competed for the same people that prop up Putin's regime. There is a growing dissatisfaction with Putin due to this war-not with the principle of it, but execution. The price is increasingly being seen as too high. Navalny was just close enough to potentially be an alternative for them, if Russian military blunders again. But they could never be allies, because both had too high ambitions, and while Putin made corruption and cronyism his tool, Navalny built his political career on opposing it.
His murder indicates that Putin is aware of this, so he removed the potential rallying flag for them.

I didn’t say “open,” just hostilities. My entire point is actually that the hostilities were just as important for shaping the course of the conflict before they were open. I’ll prove my point after the next snip.

You said war. That's open hostilities.

Clearly, I view it as an axiom.

And that's an error on your part. This is almost uniquely Russian approach. Most governments try to convince people that they're better than others, usually previous government.

So, if it’s “known” to you that Russia invaded before 2022, then hostilities have actually been open since 2014. Meaning the Russians who “knew” the CIA had invaded Ukraine and taken it over through the artifice of Euromaidan could, by the exact same token, reckon that they were dealing with an openly hostile America. So now what? Winner takes all? Might makes right?

The flaw in your reasoning is that you inherently seem to believe America is reacting and their presence in Ukraine is defensive. Because Ukraine “asked” for help. Just as the separatists asked Russia for help.

You understand frankly nothing about the conflict, and wrongly see Maidan as something that happened "out of the blue" and had to have US backing, despite no evidence.
Ukraine has been calling for help from the west for some time before 2014. It was de facto a Russian vassal, but many Ukrainians were coming to work to former Eastern bloc states and saw how different it was in countries that managed to break away from Russian control. Just look up how Poland, Czech Republic and others developed after they broke away, compared to Ukraine. They knew that Russia, who exerted control over Ukraine through corruption and thus promoted it, was a detriment to its prosperity. So Ukraine sought some sort of deepening of its relations to EU, and the trade treaty that was negotiated was supposed to be that. When Yanukovich overstepped his authority and refused to sign the agreement, they saw it as Kremlin cronies trying to snatch away their only chance for better future. And so, in desperation, they rose up. Wasn't the first time something like that happened. Similar sentiment led Russian people to stand against the coup attempt in 1991, and you can find other examples.

 

[leif erikson]

Moderator Action: Back to current news please. Continued discussion of past events will result in thread bans. If you wish to discuss the pre-2022 war details, please start a separate thread.

 

[Birdjaguar]

Moderator Action: Sometimes folks refuse to see the writing on the wall. See you all in a week. Often it is best to ignore posts and not get caught up in a mess.

 

[Gedemon]

You don't understand what "leaked audio tape" means? I read the transcript, there were details I found interesting.

Feel free to post the interesting technical details then. I wonder if there are other oddities in it, like for the Rafale.

For now it's just a tool used against Germany, with the help of Russia far-right friends...

Germanyâs AfD leader speaks out against sending Taurus missiles to Ukraine

"This symbolic act would drag Germany deep into the war," Tino Chrupalla said

tass.com

Tino Chrupalla, co-chairman of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, has spoken strongly against sending Taurus missiles to Ukraine following the leak of a conversation between high-ranking German military officers discussing a possible attack on the Crimean Bridge.

"German army generals are reported to have made an assessment that the Crimean Bridge may be attacked with German-made Taurus missiles. This symbolic act would drag Germany deep into the war. No to Taurus deliveries!" he wrote on X (formerly Twitter).

... or to push on the division between NATO allies

Recording of discussions between German officers could be leaked by allies â analyst

According to Alexander Rahr, the leaked conversation could indicate infighting within Europe over Germany's position on the Ukrainian conflict

tass.com

The recording of discussions between high-ranking German military officers could have been leaked by France and the UK to take revenge on German Chancellor Olaf Scholz for his principled position on arms supplies to Ukraine, according to Alexander Rahr, a German political analyst.

"Of course, it could be a victory or successful work of the Russian special services, who listened in on this conversation, which cannot be ruled out, but there is another version that I have heard here in Germany. It is that this is a 'leak' by the British and French as a revenge on Olaf Scholz for clearly saying in recent days that Germany will not interfere or go into a direct conflict with Russia, will not send its inspectors or its instructors to Ukraine to target the Taurus or other German missiles that could strike inside Russian territory,"