[RD] Russia Invades Ukraine: War News Thread: Round 6

[Joij21]

And that way if it's Polska, you can go for Article 5.

 

[amadeus]

Never heard about this, but might be true too.
May be the narrative about everexpanding land-hungry evil empire is a bit simplistic, isn't it?

Simplistic in the way of single-track thinking, but even the Soviet politburo understood geopolitical realities. Why would they want to shackle themselves to two countries that were -1 UN vote each, and extend the Soviet frontier even further? Both already under Moscow’s tutelage.

 

[Birdjaguar]

Moderator Action: Hey guys, back to news please.

 

[Broken_Erika]

Russian soldier death rate highest since first week of war - Ukraine​

Russian soldiers are dying in greater numbers in Ukraine this month than at any time since the first week of the invasion, according to Ukrainian data.
The Ukrainian data shows 824 Russian soldiers dying per day in February.
The figures were highlighted by the UK's Ministry of Defence. The figures cannot be verified - but the UK says the trends are "likely accurate".
The increase comes as Ukrainian officials say that Russia has launched a "big offensive".

However, the secretary of the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine (NSDC), Oleksiy Danilov, also said Russia is experiencing "big problems" with the campaign.
"Our troops are repulsing [the offensive] very strongly," Mr Danilov said. "The offensive they planned is already taking place, gradually, but it's not the offensive they imagined."

Last week, Ukraine's outgoing defence minister, Oleksiy Reznikov, said they were anticipating a new Russian offensive around 24 February - the anniversary of the full-scale invasion.
Some of the fiercest fighting has been around Bakhmut in the east of the country.
On Sunday, the head of Russia's Wagner mercenary force said the group had seized a settlement near the devastated city.
Yevgeny Prigozhin said on Telegram: "Today, the settlement of Krasna Hora was taken by assault detachments of the Wagner PMC."

• What is Russia's Wagner Group of mercenaries?

Mr Prigozhin also gave his group credit for the offensive on Bakhmut, downplaying the Russian army's role: "Within a radius of 50 km, plus or minus, there are only Wagner PMC fighters," he wrote.
The statement hints at longstanding tensions between the Russian military and Wagner.

When the town of Soledar was taken in January, Mr Prigozhin claimed his fighters were in full control there boasted that only his troops took part - a claim the Russian defence ministry questioned.
Bakhmut's strategic importance has been questioned, but the prolonged fighting has turned it into a symbolic prize.
According to the Ukrainian data, highlighted by the UK, 824 Russian losses a day is more than four times the rate reported in June and July, when around 172 Russian soldiers died each day.
The Ukrainian military claims 137,780 Russian military deaths since the full-scale invasion began.
The UK's MoD pointed out the recent increase could be due to "a range of factors, including lack of trained personnel, coordination, and resources across the front".
Ukraine "also continues to suffer a high attrition rate", the UK said.

Russian forces have made little progress in Ukraine since their retreat from the major southern city of Kherson last November.
Last month they captured the town of Soledar north of Bakhmut after an intense battle. Capturing Bakhmut could enable Russian forces to press on towards the bigger cities of Kramatorsk and Slovyansk.
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky has appealed to Western countries to hurry sending heavy weaponry to Ukraine to help Ukraine repel Russia's expected offensive.
The US agreed last week to send long-range missiles that would enable Ukraine to double its attack range.
But President Zelensky wants the West to send fighter jets - saying during a visit to the UK Parliament this week that he was "thanking you all in advance for powerful English planes".
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64616099

 

[Joij21]

But President Zelensky wants the West to send fighter jets - saying during a visit to the UK Parliament this week that he was "thanking you all in advance for powerful English planes".

He probably will get those planes. The British are most likely waiting to see how the offensive goes.

 

[saamohod]

Daily average Russian losses according to Ukraine's Armed Forces

 

[EvaDK]

^ The Wagner Group in Ukraine is rumored to suffer a casualty rate of ~80%. Entire regiments turned into open terrain artillery targets at Bakhmut.
Probably the worst trained units of all in the theater, despite Prigozhin's bragging and chest thumping. It appears that Putin and Shoigu finally had enough of him.

 

[red_elk]

To put it into perspective, Ukrainian own military casualties were estimated as 10-13 thousands, in the February-December period. By Ukrainian data.

 

[REDY]

On paper it is impressive, but we should be careful about the data from one side. People speculate if there will be Russian and Ukrainian spring offensives and how ambitious they will be. Russian fails seems systemic and Ukraine is getting western equipment too little, too late.

 

[red_elk]

Both sides official data estimate casualty ratio as roughly 10:1 in their favor.

 

[innonimatu]

Ukrainian sources for deaths (or for anything else) are ridiculous. They just make up numbers with no connection to reality.

It has been obvious for months that the ration is indeed about 10:1 - in Russia's favor.

On materiel:
Russia's daily reporting is to the point in targets hit and material destroyed. the ukranian'' governments continued screeching for more materiel is independent confirmation of the rate of destruction of that materiel.
Ukraine's reporting would have Russia without tanks, artillery, missiles and whatnot months ago. It's obviously fabricated, and imo in London not Kiev.

On casualties among soldiers, the russian military at least point out where they claim to have hit the ukranian army for so and so casualties. How they do their estimates. The ukranians just make up numbers.
But the corroborating evidence is in the recruitment that either side has had to carry out.

This war proceeds right along the "demilitarize NATO" line. With Ukraine as the battefiled and main casualty. But the cheerleaders of NATO have no reverse gear so they just keep pretending that glorious victory remains around the corner. When the only strategic goal achieved by NATO was the blowing up of its own energy supply. Norway and the US profited at least. What's an alliance for huh?

 

[FriendlyFire]

It has been obvious for months that the ration is indeed about 10:1 - in Russia's favor.

AGAIN I ask what happened to Russian 1.2 Mil strength Army ?
If losses are 10:1 in Russias favour why did Putin have to create new Volunteer battlions (BARS), and then when that wasnt enough had to mobolize another 360K more men ?

 

[innonimatu]

AGAIN I ask what happened to Russian 1.2 Mil strength Army ?
If losses are 10:1 in Russias favour why did Putin have to create new Volunteer battlions (BARS), and then when that wasnt enough had to mobolize another 360K more men ?

My guess is that the russians want to make it clear to the poles et al that they shouldn't even for a moment think Russia is too busy in Ukraine to handle new fronts.
On russia's casualties the reporters for BBC russia have been sniffing around in russian military graveyards and didn't manage to tally even 20000 deaths. I linked to one of their stories a while ago.

Not that I think the poles now are up to it. They may have entertained the idea months ago but it's clearly suicidal by now. They can see that while the US encourages others to get wasted, it only busies itself with winning the glorious war on weather balloons.

 

[FriendlyFire]

Russia's daily reporting is to the point in targets hit and material destroyed. the ukranian'' governments continued screeching for more materiel is independent confirmation of the rate of destruction of that materiel.
Ukraine's reporting would have Russia without tanks, artillery, missiles and whatnot months ago. It's obviously fabricated, and imo in London not Kiev.

? Russia asking for North Korea for weapons and material on the other hand is that confirmation of the rate of destruction too right ?

 

[Joij21]

Ukrainian sources for deaths (or for anything else) are ridiculous. They just make up numbers with no connection to reality.

It has been obvious for months that the ration is indeed about 10:1 - in Russia's favor.

On materiel:
Russia's daily reporting is to the point in targets hit and material destroyed. the ukranian'' governments continued screeching for more materiel is independent confirmation of the rate of destruction of that materiel.
Ukraine's reporting would have Russia without tanks, artillery, missiles and whatnot months ago. It's obviously fabricated, and imo in London not Kiev.

On casualties among soldiers, the russian military at least point out where they claim to have hit the ukranian army for so and so casualties. How they do their estimates. The ukranians just make up numbers.
But the corroborating evidence is in the recruitment that either side has had to carry out.

This war proceeds right along the "demilitarize NATO" line. With Ukraine as the battefiled and main casualty. But the cheerleaders of NATO have no reverse gear so they just keep pretending that glorious victory remains around the corner. When the only strategic goal achieved by NATO was the blowing up of its own energy supply. Norway and the US profited at least. What's an alliance for huh?

Why do you defend Russia so much? Even if Ukrainians are taking heavy casualties (which they probably are) it would also suggest Russians are taking heavy casualties and possibly more since they have gained little territory to prove otherwise.

Tell me, does the VDV dying in an airport or Spetznatz fleeing into the forest present a good look? What about the Chechens having to squat down and pray to Allah before battle in another forest because of fear among their ranks? What about that horrific bottleneck traffic jam and subsequent retreat from Kiev? The collapse and total abandonment of equipment in the defense of the Kharkiv line? The pullback from Kherson? The desperate trench digging in the East and hunkering down? Having to resort to two call ups, not once but twice, with some space in-between because too many men started fleeing Russia?

Not the look of a strong country on the precipice of victory is all I'm saying. Sure maybe after a long war of attrition for like five years plus a decade of dealing with partisans, but like at what cost man? Or it could go on longer if the West keeps supplying Ukraine, in which case it could very well go on over a decade! This NATO getting depleted thing is nonsense, if the Europeans can't rebuild their stock they'll just order new stock from the Americans and their industry. Also the Russians have shown such pathetic weakness that most Europeans probably don't care if their stocks deplete a little, what's Russia gonna do? Do a surprise offensive and broaden it's assault into the Baltics or Poland when they're still on the struggle bus on capturing all of Ukraine? You do realize that if Russia did do that it would just take men away from the Ukraine front, create an unnecessary distraction and then allow the Ukrainians to beeline to Moscow now that the rest of said Russians are busy trying to molest the Poles.

Oh but you believe somehow the Russians are still holding back! That they have a secret stash somewhere! Or that they are trying to be "proportional" and "measured" in their response even though they made it clear as day from the beginning they had always intended to take all of Ukraine via that Kiev "Zerg rush" in the war's opening move, it never was about just holding the line with the Donetsk and Luhansk.

 

[amadeus]

I don’t see it being mathematically possible that either country has sustained a 10:1 casualty ratio. Off the top of my head, if this were really the case it would be either that Russia would be at the Polish border or there would be no Russian army left in Ukraine.

 

[Ajidica]

? Russia asking for North Korea for weapons and material on the other hand is that confirmation of the rate of destruction too right ?

It is worth pointing out that Russia buying up North Korean stocks of Soviet equipment is not necessarily proof that Russia needs those stocks. Despite some high profile use of western equipment, large amounts of Ukrainian military equipment is still ex-Soviet stuff, and Ukraine is going to try and buy up all the spare artillery shells and replacement parts they can. And if some of that comes from North Korea, well, needs must.
So by Russia buying North Korean artillery shells, they are preventing Ukraine from buying it.

As far as casualties go, BBC did a detailed investigation a few month ago and excluding the DLPR forces, Russia and Ukraine are estimated to have taken about the same number of uniformed casualties. Unfortunately, the BBC didn't break it down by time but the intensity of the fighting suggests both sides are taking heavy casualties.

 

[Joij21]

My guess is that the russians want to make it clear to the poles et al that they shouldn't even for a moment think Russia is too busy in Ukraine to handle new fronts.

They ARE too busy to handle new fronts. What you see in Ukraine is all the Russians have as far as conventional forces go.

 

[Verbose]

Either Russia has committed what it has in Ukraine, and is struggling, or it hasn't, in which case they are morons. Either makes for bad prospects for Russia.

 

[saamohod]

So by Russia buying North Korean artillery shells, they are preventing Ukraine from buying it.

It's a bit naïve of you to assume that North Korea could or would sell weapons to Ukraine.