Russian experts compile map of Europe for year 2035

[Save_Ferris]

I think this thread's in the wrong forum.

 

[Winner]

Which relegates the term to the large pile of useless and meaningless political buzzwords.

I say the same thing about "balance of power", but Winner ignores me about that too.

If you want to go on like this, you might just as well start speaking Czech, so that you avoid all the other ambiguous words in English (~90% of them).

 

[Dachs]

If you want to go on like this, you might just as well start speaking Czech, so that you avoid all the other ambiguous words in English (~90% of them).

The Chamber isn't much of a hugbox if even you think the rules are bad, huh?

 

[Tufio]

Not unlikely at all for Italy.

 

[Bakspatel]

I find this map hilarious, its like they predict that in every nation in which some issues occur the worst-case scenario is predicted to happen.

- The falling apart of Belgium? I think that has already been predicted decades ago but the country still exists. Despite their insanely complex political system (Belgium got five different governments, all with their own ministers and prime minister) and the squabbling between Flanders and Wallonia neither is benefiting from a demise of Belgium. It would simply cost too much and there is still a large support of the population to continue with Belgium. They also haven't seem to have included what the German-speaking part of Belgium would do: would they stick with Wallonia, join Germany, Luxembourg, go independent or perhaps join the Netherlands?
- Even if that scenario would happen that Belgium ends I find it unlikely that Flanders will decide to join the Netherlands. The discussion has been held before in the Netherlands, there does seem to be a large part of the Dutch that is willing to let the Flanders join the Netherlands. But I think it would be a more realistic scenario that they go for independence.
- An Islamic state in France? I seriously doubt that the proud French will ever allow that to happen. I would find it reliable if they would say that some more serious riots will follow - worse than the French have had in the last couple of years. But this is just a complete fantasy story. And why did they add Liechtenstein on the map but has Monaco disappeared? Are they gobbled up by the new Islamic state as well?
- Why is Corsica independent?
- I'm not too familiar with the situation in Spain and how large the support for an independent Basque state is but considering the current situation of Spain I find it unlikely; Spain has been struck hard by the financial crisis and independence only costs extra money and time which they don't have. I think it will take the Spanish quite some years to get back on their feet. And apparently the state of Andorra also ceased to exist.
- Germany seems to be the most hilarious addition in this. Really, reclaim of the territory that is bordered with France? France and Germany currently seem to get quite well along with each other, why would they do that?
- I'm curious in how they got the idea that Germany will claim land from Poland. It can't be for the 'Germanic people', because a lot of the German speakers beyond the German, Swiss and Austrian border were expelled from their country after WWII. Germany invading Poland? Really? Are they predicting the ending of the EU here?
- Border swifting of Hungary: Would Serbia and Romania really allow that? I know that there's some issues due to the current government in Hungary but that doesn't mean that their current policy is everlasting.
- From my understanding there is a high disliking rate of Russia in the Baltic states, I believe I even read once that in Estonia they refuse to accept Russian as a national language despite its the native tongue for a lot of civilians. Why would they give up territory to Russia?
- What happened to Moldavia?
- And of course, totally unpredictable Russia seems to benefit the most out of all the chaos. Though I wonder why they would areas such as Dagestan and Chechnya become independent.

Sorry for the long post, but I think that there's just waaaayyyy too much fantasy involved.

 

[Winner]

All right, I am bored so I'll play:

I find this map hilarious, its like they predict that in every nation in which some issues occur the worst-case scenario is predicted to happen.

Russians: always predicting the worst for others, ignoring the mess they're in themselves

- The falling apart of Belgium? I think that has already been predicted decades ago but the country still exists. Despite their insanely complex political system (Belgium got five different governments, all with their own ministers and prime minister) and the squabbling between Flanders and Wallonia neither is benefiting from a demise of Belgium. It would simply cost too much and there is still a large support of the population to continue with Belgium. They also haven't seem to have included what the German-speaking part of Belgium would do: would they stick with Wallonia, join Germany, Luxembourg, go independent or perhaps join the Netherlands?

Break up of Belgium is one of the more plausible ones. The population is still mostly against it, but that doesn't mean it won't happen if these political deadlocks continue.

- Even if that scenario would happen that Belgium ends I find it unlikely that Flanders will decide to join the Netherlands. The discussion has been held before in the Netherlands, there does seem to be a large part of the Dutch that is willing to let the Flanders join the Netherlands. But I think it would be a more realistic scenario that they go for independence.

Indeed. (Maybe the rest of Europe will get so tired of the Belgian non-government that they'll ask you to just annex the whole of it as southern Netherlands again )

- An Islamic state in France? I seriously doubt that the proud French will ever allow that to happen. I would find it reliable if they would say that some more serious riots will follow - worse than the French have had in the last couple of years. But this is just a complete fantasy story. And why did they add Liechtenstein on the map but has Monaco disappeared? Are they gobbled up by the new Islamic state as well?

It's a joke. I hope.

- Why is Corsica independent?

Presumably because a fringe independence movement exists there and has blown up some things. Also, Napoleon may rise from the dead and declare Corsica the capital of his new undead empire. About as realistic as the first option.

- I'm not too familiar with the situation in Spain and how large the support for an independent Basque state is but considering the current situation of Spain I find it unlikely; Spain has been struck hard by the financial crisis and independence only costs extra money and time which they don't have. I think it will take the Spanish quite some years to get back on their feet. And apparently the state of Andorra also ceased to exist.

A heard that even Catalonia will need a bailout - I'll be delighted to see what our resident Catalan nationalist will have to say about that

- Germany seems to be the most hilarious addition in this. Really, reclaim of the territory that is bordered with France? France and Germany currently seem to get quite well along with each other, why would they do that?

But... but... (*russian accent*) they're fascists! (*/russian accent*)

- I'm curious in how they got the idea that Germany will claim land from Poland. It can't be for the 'Germanic people', because a lot of the German speakers beyond the German, Swiss and Austrian border were expelled from their country after WWII. Germany invading Poland? Really? Are they predicting the ending of the EU here?

Well, considering the overall idiocy of that map, I think that's a fair assumption.

- Border swifting of Hungary: Would Serbia and Romania really allow that? I know that there's some issues due to the current government in Hungary but that doesn't mean that their current policy is everlasting.

I've talked with some Romanians about the Transylvanian Hungarian minority, and it ain't happening.

- From my understanding there is a high disliking rate of Russia in the Baltic states, I believe I even read once that in Estonia they refuse to accept Russian as a national language despite its the native tongue for a lot of civilians. Why would they give up territory to Russia?

Who says they gave it up willingly? Russians are simply traumatized about losing their Baltic colonies to nations that barely register on the Russian mental radar.

- What happened to Moldavia?

Presumably Russia gobbled up Transdniester (the Russian-colonized part of the country with Russian-speaking majority) and Romania took the rest (because Moldova is basically a part of Romania stolen by the USSR decades ago).

- And of course, totally unpredictable Russia seems to benefit the most out of all the chaos. Though I wonder why they would areas such as Dagestan and Chechnya become independent.

To get rid of them. But otherwise mother Russia will rule the world, be assured

Sorry for the long post, but I think that there's just waaaayyyy too much fantasy involved.

Yup, it has no place here. In the old days we used to make fun of these maps in the Altered Maps thread.

 

[Bakspatel]

Who says they gave it up willingly? Russians are simply traumatized about losing their Baltic colonies to nations that barely register on the Russian mental radar.

Claiming territory from the EU and NATO countries is like a declaration of war Nobody wants that, especially not the EU with its dependence on Russian gas.
Though it might be something that the EU needs, nothing unites people better then sharing a common foe.

 

[Josu]

A heard that even Catalonia will need a bailout - I'll be delighted to see what our resident Catalan nationalist will have to say about that

Well I am not the resident Catalan nationalist, but IMHO the will of independence can not be based on economic facts. As we have seen, the economic facts are a double-edged sword and may change in few years, no more than 2 years ago Catalonia was part of economic engine of the actual Spain and now is the third autonomy asking for a bailout, and aparently the autonomy with more debt.
Supposing that an independence will must be argumented, I think that it should be based on historical or cultural facts.

 

[Winner]

Claiming territory from the EU and NATO countries is like a declaration of war Nobody wants that, especially not the EU with its dependence on Russian gas. Though it might be something that the EU needs, nothing unites people better then sharing a common foe.

And the Russians who made that map probably count on NATO/EU's not wanting to risk war for the Baltic mini-states. A typically Russian miscalculation based on their own view of the world that's really based just on the "we're big, you're small, deal with it" rule.

And be careful, one might assume you are starting to take the map seriously

Well I am not the resident Catalan nationalist, (...)

I meant ganglieri.

 

[Josu]

I meant ganglieri.

I know

 

[gangleri2001]

I meant ganglieri.

It's gangleri, not ganglieri. My nickname is Old Norse, not Italian.

Well I am not the resident Catalan nationalist, but IMHO the will of independence can not be based on economic facts. As we have seen, the economic facts are a double-edged sword and may change in few years, no more than 2 years ago Catalonia was part of economic engine of the actual Spain and now is the third autonomy asking for a bailout, and aparently the autonomy with more debt.
Supposing that an independence will must be argumented, I think that it should be based on historical or cultural facts.

You know pretty damn well that Catalonia still is the economic engine of Spain.

A heard that even Catalonia will need a bailout - I'll be delighted to see what our resident Catalan nationalist will have to say about that

Since my expirience tells me that you won't listen anything I told you, here you got it. Have a good read.

What's really going on in Catalonia (Notes on the present financial crisis in Spain and the political options for Catalans)

A full-fledged bailout of Spain is now taken for granted by most observers. In the meantime, Mr. Rajoy's government has grudgingly agreed to submit its finances to external oversight and to implement some overdue reforms. It is unlikely, however, that the measures it has taken can actually put the country's economy on the right track. So far, they seem to be designed to raise money for the state's operation rather than to stimulate growth and create jobs. And while the need for austerity is unquestionable, there are serious doubts about the focus of the spending cuts and about the selective way in which they are applied. In fact, the central government is passing much of the pain on to the regional and local administrations, which are responsible for the provision of most basic services. We are already witnessing the damaging effect of those policies on the lives of citizens and some foreseeable angry reactions.

At first glance, and given the regions' histories of carefree spending while times were good, efforts to rein them in might seem reasonable. We shouldn't forget, however, that the central government itself has been just as guilty of wastefulness and poor management, and that it's still refusing to give up some very expensive and very questionable programs. Also, restrictions are imposed across the board, making no distinction between the communities that rely on their own money to pay for the services they provide and those that are essentially living –quite regally in some cases– on public funds that the central government has extracted from the former. And no regard is given to whether or not individual regional administrations have been acting to control their budgets and to put their house in order, or to how well they're doing on that count.

Admittedly, Catalonia's record in the making of today's crisis is not brilliant. Like other southern European societies, it got used to living beyond its means. The real estate boom, encouraged by cheap credit and slack financial and political supervision, created the illusion of riches that is at the root of the present troubles. At the same time, the irresponsible policies of previous regional administrations have left a poisonous legacy of public debt. Catalans have brought upon themselves much of their hardship, but their economy remains strong enough to overcome the situation, and their burden of public and private debt would be manageable in the short to medium term if Catalonia had full use of the revenue it generates.

But today we are facing a grotesque situation in which the central government –a net recipient of Catalan resources– threatens with intervention a community that was the first to implement painful austerity measures and whose economy, if given a chance to develop, could best ensure the state's economic viability. Indeed, long before Mr. Rajoy was finally compelled to act by the country's EU overseers, the Catalan administration under President Artur Mas had set out implementing an unpopular policy of fiscal adjustment. Now it is being asked by the central government to inflict on its citizens one more round of cuts that jeopardize not only the provision of services but also most productive investments in infrastructures, education or research that are essential for any society's future. In fact, the central government is demanding of Catalonia sacrifices that it wouldn't dream of imposing on itself.

***​

Mr. Mas now finds his government's every move constrained by the dire need of financing for its day-to-day operation, while the necessary funds can be released or withheld by the central government essentially at its discretion. So far he has chosen to treat this as a strictly financial problem and, following this line, he's trying to reach with the other political parties in Catalonia a consensus position that could be a basis to renegotiate the fiscal relationship between Catalonia and the Spanish central government. However, some Catalan officials will admit in private that, even if that consensus could be found at home, the chances of an agreement with Madrid are almost nil. As long as the continuity of the Spanish project depends on the funds obtained from Catalonia, the central government can hardly afford to give Catalans a just financial deal without endangering the very survival of the state.

The ruling coalition would like to keep all its options open, but as things now stand Mr. Mas may well be running out of them. Essentially, he can insist on a negotiation and try to wring from the Spanish government some sort of compromise, even if he's aware that all he can expect is just another bad deal that would only postpone the inevitable showdown. Or he could go for a clean break with a state that doesn't feel it needs to sit and talk with a province that it can control absolutely as long as it holds the purse strings.

On the home front, influential players in the economic scene are reluctant to go along with any steps that could lead to a major confrontation with Spain. This is also the position taken by representatives of unionist parties in Catalonia, who insist on preserving the status quo even if it's clearly damaging for their constituents. No wonder this approach has made them lose support in every election.

On the other hand, a clean break is exactly what a large body of Catalans –civil society organizations, local councils, the rank-and-file of various parties and a growing number of private individuals– appears to be demanding from its leaders. The latest polls show support for independence at over fifty per cent, while the numbers of those squarely opposing it –now around twenty-one percent– continue to fall.

Understandably, economic grievances are cited by many of the Catalans who have been warming up to the idea of independence in the past few months. When citizens are being subjected to service cuts and tax hikes while a big chunk of the revenue they generate continues to be siphoned off by the central government, the economy would be a good enough reason for Catalans to give some serious thought to political separation from a state that is clearly working against their interests.

But it would be wrong to characterize this as a mere financial dispute between a province and its capital. There is a more fundamental disagreement, which is of a political nature and whose solution would imply a complete redefinition of the state that no one outside of Catalonia is even ready to consider. These deeper problems will be impossible to solve as long as Spain refuses to acknowledge the existence within the state of very diverse societies with conflicting sets of values and to revise some tenets that it regards as essential to its national being.

***​

For a growing number of Catalans, Spain is a dead-end road, incapable of healing itself and offering them no perspectives except more of the same old systematic plunder of their hard-earned resources at the same time that it uses every opportunity to stamp out their national character. And they see the only way out in a peaceful, orderly and responsible process of political independence.

There are justified concerns, domestically and internationally, over the can of worms that a process of independence could open. Independence can indeed be messy, and today Europe and the world may think that they can ill afford an open conflict and an added source of instability. And yet, conflict is what has defined the relation between Catalonia and Spain for at least three hundred years, and instability –a systemic, unsolvable form of instability– is what we already have there. Conversely, the emergence of Catalonia as a solid political reality, creditworthy and ready to face up to its international obligations, would surely become a source of stability in the south of Europe.

As a result of the financial crisis, many outside observers have become aware of Spain's economic and political shortcomings, and some may now begin to see Catalonia as what it is –a viable and active community that is being made to pay for the incurable flaws of a political project that for three hundred years has been incapable of building a cohesive project for its constituent peoples.

Beyond their immediate difficulties, Catalans are now calling for a brand new long-term political project allowing the survival of an economic, social and cultural model that, in spite of all the obstacles and shortcomings, both external and self-imposed, has succeeded in building a relatively prosperous, creative and inclusive society.

In Catalonia today the people are well ahead of their government. They expect from their leadership that it takes on its responsibilities towards the present and future generations. If their government chooses to heed this call and throw its weight behind them, many more will come round. If it doesn't, Catalans are likely to forge ahead no matter what, either by their government's side or marching in front of it to show the only way to a better future.

These notes were prepared by Col·lectiu Emma and have the endorsement of a number of respected civil society representatives.

Alícia Adserà (Princeton University), Sebastià Alzamora (writer), Carles Boix (Princeton University), David Boronat (entrepreneur), Enric Bou (Università Ca' Foscari Venezia), Jaume Cabré (writer), Miquel Calçada (journalist and businessman), Salvador Cardús (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona), Ramon Carner (Cercle Català de Negocis), Muriel Casals (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona), Àngel Castiñeira (ESADE), Liz Castro (writer), Jordi Comas (architect), Xavier Cuadras (Universitat Pompeu Fabra), Jordi Cuixart (businessman), Ramon Folch (businessman), Jordi Galí (Universitat Pompeu Fabra), M Dolors Genovés (journalist and historian), Josep Ginebra (Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya), Modest Guinjoan (Universitat Pompeu Fabra), Jaume López (Universitat Pompeu Fabra), Josep Maria Lozano (ESADE), Isidor Marí (Universitat Oberta de Catalunya), Isabel-Helena Martí (businesswoman), Rita Marzoa (journalist), Francesc Mortés (businessman), Ferran Requejo (Universitat Pompeu Fabra), Joan Ramon Resina (Stanford University), Xavier Roig (writer and engineer), Jaume Soler (accoustician), Miquel Strubell (Universitat Oberta de Catalunya), Àlex Susanna (writer), Quim Torra (editor), Jordi Torras (entrepreneur), Matthew Tree (writer), Ramon Tremosa (MEP, Universitat de Barcelona), Jaume Vallcorba (Fundació Catalunya Estat), Jaume Ventura (Universitat Pompeu Fabra).

Endorsement's update: Update: Germà Bel (Universitat de Barcelona), Martí Boada (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona), Susan Digiacomo (Universitat Rovira i Virgili), Josep Gifreu (Universitat Pompeu Fabra), Josep Maria Figueres (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona), Jordi Graupera (journalist), Antoni Maria Piqué (journalist)

 

[Leoreth]

Presumably because a fringe independence movement exists there and has blown up some things. Also, Napoleon may rise from the dead and declare Corsica the capital of his new undead empire. About as realistic as the first option.

It's evidently because the independentist spirit is hardwired into the Corsican DNA since they first got rid of the Genoans.

 

[Winner]

It's gangleri, not ganglieri. My nickname is Old Norse, not Italian.

Sorry about that I never noticed the missing "i"

 

[Arwon]

I like how that Catalan nationalist article resorts to "culture" and "values" to explain why Catalonia is economically different and special. Credible.

 

[gangleri2001]

Are you sure you read the same article I did? It does not even say that Catalonia is economically special.

 

[Angst]

WTH is this nonsense.

 

[NickyJ]

WTH is this nonsense.

It's a Russian comedy skit.

 

[Angst]

I hope so. Reminds me of EU3...

 

[innonimatu]

I don't remember what edition. It was a German translation that I had borrowed from the university library a couple of years ago. The final chapter was about a hypothetical world war that starts as a conflict between confucian states in Asia and escalates into a global conflict because of America's and Russia's (through Iran) interference.

It's there all right, at least on the portuguese translation I dug up just to check. And it's from the original edition, though I doubt any recent one would include it, what with predicting the third world war to start around 2010...
Next to last chapter. It's about as insane as this "russian experts' scenario". Includes such gems as:
- India being stopped in an attempt to conquer Pakistan by "the modern iranian army" which had come to the defense of Pakistan (!).
- the japanese bending over to the chinese because they were stared and then... going to war against the USA!
- chinese nuclear missiles placed on Algeria and... Bosnia (! you know, the little EU/NATO protectorate...) in order to threaten european countries
- the greeks and the bulgarians taking Istanbul and crushing the turks
- a new "hindu world order" in the end;
- hispanics taking over the USA with support from a nerw MArshall plan financed by the ... prosperous latin american countries!
- Indonesia becoming the dominant east asian country, but, mind you, "under orientation of australian advisers"...
- Africa lauching "horders of socially mobilized migrants" to "pillage Europe"!

And while I'm going about how insane Huntington was, why not mention another chapter, "la revanche de dieu", where he claimed (kind of central to his whole deranged vision of the world, actually) that the influence of religion had been revived in the 1970s (really? ), secularism was on the retreat, and the russians, foe example, were about to all become devout orthodox believers... His general ideal: the plebs are dumb and can only find an "identity" through religion. The perfect neocon, that Samuel Huntington...

Edit: and how did I got that smiley on top of the post?

 

[bestrfcplayer]

An Islamic state forming in southern France?

What. The. Heck?