The "not Romney" wave cycle

[Core Imposter]

Santorum told Puerto Ricans they need to speak english if they want to become a state, solid tactic to win votes from them.

Yes, these silly non-pandering truth telling conservatives. So 1950.

 

[Antilogic]

Sanitorium got killed in his last senate bid in PA... slaughtered. There is more than one reason... such as, most Repubs got slaughtered in that election in states anywhere near purple... but more importantly, the people knew him better by then. He lost by 16 or 18 points I believe.
I think Romney would do way better in PA... based on being more moderate, and a lot of anti-Obama angst with the coal industry, etc. However, Romney not being the most union friendly would hurt him.

Could Romney win Mass? Maybe... very tough sell there... solidly blue state, and while he did win it at the state level, it's different.
Romney wins N Hampshire, Maine... maybe Rhode Island... loses CT, NY...

Midwestern states are fed up with Obama, generally speaking. Iowa would be a toss up... IN and OH, Romney's... Could Romney win MI? Maybe... He's known there, his dad, etc... They've been tipping more conservative than previously. Wisconsin? Maybe, also leaning more conservative recently... Illinios? Hahahahaha, no way. Missouri? Yes, Obama's lost ground there. KS & the other farm states... yes. MN? Doubtful...

Out west?
UT, AZ, AK... duh... Colorader? Hmmm... toss up. NM? Maybe, slim chance. I think Romney can appeal to hispanics pretty well. Cowboy states & ID? Yes. Oregon? I have no clue. WA? Fat chance.
CA & HI, Romney loses... even a reincarnated, fully vigorous Reagan couldn't win that one these days!

Other states, as I see it..
FL, Romney all the way, lots of retirees from the NE make this almost a shoe in.
TX, duh... most of the south? Pretty solidly red. NC? Toss up. VA? Romney.

This is of course if the election were tomorrow. With continuing to rise gas prices and a still struggling economy, it's looking more and more like Obama loses.

You are going to have to provide a little more analysis for these predictions. It looks like you just pulled random state abbreviations and candidates out of a hat. For example, why is North Carolina, where Obama won by 0.32%, a toss-up while Virgina, where Obama won by 6.3%, a solid Romney? I also don't get why you think New England is going to fly to Romney, Obama won all those states by 20-40 points. If those are flipping Republican, then it doesn't matter who the Republican candidate is.

 

[kochman]

You are going to have to provide a little more analysis for these predictions. It looks like you just pulled random state abbreviations and candidates out of a hat. For example, why is North Carolina, where Obama won by 0.32%, a toss-up while Virgina, where Obama won by 6.3%, a solid Romney? I also don't get why you think New England is going to fly to Romney, Obama won all those states by 20-40 points. If those are flipping Republican, then it doesn't matter who the Republican candidate is.

I was trying to limit the size of my post, but you make a fair point.
NC, no gubernatorial elections this time around to mess with things (I believe), whereas VA, the Old Dominion, is leaning repub now (including Gub)...
N Hampshire was not won by 20-40 points (ten point race, when McCain was a total loss... somewhat strong conservative movement there, mainly due to libertarians)! Mass was, sure, I said Mitt could do well there, being his state with a history of supporting him... still tough.
Maine, could really go either way, again, N Englanders take pride in all things N England. Obama won there by 17, it will be tough... RI, it's been leaning somewhat more conservative recently. Looking further into election results though, you are right... It will go Obama.
NY and CT, well, I don't see them shifting. Solid dem states.
THat's hardly Romney flying in N England, it just means, he won't get the typical NE shut out handed to him.

My list is admittedly optimistic... I support Romney, and Romney only, for this election.
Touche.

 

[NickyJ]

Yes, these silly non-pandering truth telling conservatives. So 1950.

It isn't a truth. Do you think all the Hawaiians had to speak English to become a state?

 

[Leoreth]

Right. There must be other even more ridiculous requirements we can come up with.

And "So 1950" is actually a pretty accurate description of Santorum And I don't mean the 50s you see on I Love Lucy.

 

[Antilogic]

I was trying to limit the size of my post, but you make a fair point.
NC, no gubernatorial elections this time around to mess with things (I believe), whereas VA, the Old Dominion, is leaning repub now (including Gub)...
N Hampshire was not won by 20-40 points (ten point race, when McCain was a total loss... somewhat strong conservative movement there, mainly due to libertarians)! Mass was, sure, I said Mitt could do well there, being his state with a history of supporting him... still tough.
Maine, could really go either way, again, N Englanders take pride in all things N England. Obama won there by 17, it will be tough... RI, it's been leaning somewhat more conservative recently. Looking further into election results though, you are right... It will go Obama.
NY and CT, well, I don't see them shifting. Solid dem states.
THat's hardly Romney flying in N England, it just means, he won't get the typical NE shut out handed to him.

My list is admittedly optimistic... I support Romney, and Romney only, for this election.
Touche.

I'll agree that your list is optimistic.

New Hampshire was the only "close" state in NE, and Obama won that one by 10 points. Maine was 17 points in Obama's favor. While I can see NH as a tossup, I don't think it's leaning heavily Republican nor is it particularly important for the Republicans to hit 270 EVs. Rhode Island was 28 points up for Obama in the last election; what indicators are you talking about that it is leaning more conservative?

You can support whoever you want, but it doesn't mean we can ignore reality in these states.

 

[Core Imposter]

If Obama wins in NC this fall its going to have to be against Romney. Santorum or Newt or the candidate to be named all win easily here.

Edit: Prior to going for Obama NC last went for a democrat on Carter's first run. I think NC should be in the red column even if the liberal Romney is in the race, though Romneyfeller is capable of losing every single close state.

 

[kramerfan86]

Yes, these silly non-pandering truth telling conservatives. So 1950.

Except its not truth, there is nothing in the constitution that dictates a territory speak english to become a state, absolutely nothing. Just because america has a bizarre fear of bilingualism doesnt mean laws that dont exist are "truth".

 

[downtown]

Could Romney win Mass? Maybe... very tough sell there... solidly blue state, and while he did win it at the state level, it's different.
Romney wins N Hampshire, Maine... maybe Rhode Island... loses CT, NY...

There is no chance Mitt Romney wins any New England state besides New Hampshire. Mitt would have lost by at least 10 points had he stood for reelection in MA....he is not a popular man there. Socially, he is 100% out of step with every single state.

Midwestern states are fed up with Obama, generally speaking. Iowa would be a toss up... IN and OH, Romney's... Could Romney win MI? Maybe... He's known there, his dad, etc... They've been tipping more conservative than previously. Wisconsin? Maybe, also leaning more conservative recently... Illinios? Hahahahaha, no way. Missouri? Yes, Obama's lost ground there. KS & the other farm states... yes. MN? Doubtful...

Santorum would honestly be more competitive in the midwest than Romney I think. Mitt supported wildly unpopular anti-union legislation in Ohio, and has marched lockstep with a Gov that has a 30% approval rating. Wisconsin may have a conservative gov, but Obama has also led by 10 points in just about every state level poll. There are apparently a decent number of Walker-Obama voters. I think Iowa and Indiana are the only real pickup places.

Out west?
UT, AZ, AK... duh... Colorader? Hmmm... toss up. NM? Maybe, slim chance. I think Romney can appeal to hispanics pretty well.

Why? He doesn't speak spanish and he's against worker visas. He has the strongest anti-immigration platform of the three major candidates.

If Obama wins in NC this fall its going to have to be against Romney. Santorum or Newt or the candidate to be named all win easily here.

Edit: Prior to going for Obama NC last went for a democrat on Carter's first run. I think NC should be in the red column even if the liberal Romney is in the race, though Romneyfeller is capable of losing every single close state.

North Carolina (and VA) is not the same state that it was in 1970. It has become substantially more Latino, and is attracting a lot of Democratic-leaning young professionals that are fleeing states like Missouri and Ohio. NC, VA and CO are going to be battleground states for the near future. I'm not saying Mitt can't or won't win NC in 2012 (it will be tough without strong black and latino showings), but I don't think anybody wins it easily for a while.

What states did McCain win that you think Romney will lose?

 

[kochman]

There is no chance Mitt Romney wins any New England state besides New Hampshire. Mitt would have lost by at least 10 points had he stood for reelection in MA....he is not a popular man there. Socially, he is 100% out of step with every single state.

Agree to disagree.

Santorum would honestly be more competitive in the midwest than Romney I think.

But the midwest and the south isn't enough.

Mitt supported wildly unpopular anti-union legislation in Ohio, and has marched lockstep with a Gov that has a 30% approval rating.

I think you are underestimating the anti-Obama sentiment in the state.

Wisconsin may have a conservative gov, but Obama has also led by 10 points in just about every state level poll. There are apparently a decent number of Walker-Obama voters.

I only said this was a maybe... I don't think Sanitorium would be a shoe in here.

Why? He doesn't speak spanish and he's against worker visas. He has the strongest anti-immigration platform of the three major candidates.

I thought you knew more about Mitt than this? He can actually claim Mexican citizenship, should he so please... and perhaps run for President there after he wins here, making him the first Dualy!
In FL he was running ads in Spanish, where his son does the speaking (who went as a missionary to Chile)... what's Obama's experience with the hispanics?

North Carolina (and VA) is not the same state that it was in 1970. It has become substantially more Latino, and is attracting a lot of Democratic-leaning young professionals that are fleeing states like Missouri and Ohio.

It's still pretty right leaning... and again, it is no foregone conclusion that Obama gets the legal hispanic votes.

What states did McCain win that you think Romney will lose?

Probably none... he's a stronger candidate than McCain, and running against a different Obama, one who has shown he wasn't really worthy of the hype... in a stagnant economy.

In the end, it will come down to the economy and gas... All these stupid issues that the media is throwing about like gay marriage and birth control... it's to take the spotlight off the economy. Pretty obvious ploy... but if the economy doesn't get markedly better... siyonara Obama!

 

[Cutlass]

I'll agree that your list is optimistic.

New Hampshire was the only "close" state in NE, and Obama won that one by 10 points. Maine was 17 points in Obama's favor. While I can see NH as a tossup, I don't think it's leaning heavily Republican nor is it particularly important for the Republicans to hit 270 EVs. Rhode Island was 28 points up for Obama in the last election; what indicators are you talking about that it is leaning more conservative?

You can support whoever you want, but it doesn't mean we can ignore reality in these states.

The thing is, New England is not hostile to Republicans. But it is hostile to the hardline social conservatism that currently dominates the national Republican party. So until the Republicans change, they are increasingly forfeiting federal races for the Republican party. And that includes New Hampshire, which is the most conservative New England state. New Hampshire and Maine mat not have a lot of use for liberals, but they have even less use for the big government culture warriors.

If Obama wins in NC this fall its going to have to be against Romney. Santorum or Newt or the candidate to be named all win easily here.

Edit: Prior to going for Obama NC last went for a democrat on Carter's first run. I think NC should be in the red column even if the liberal Romney is in the race, though Romneyfeller is capable of losing every single close state.

North Carolina is getting bluer all the time. More educated, more prosperous, more metro area. Don't count them as moving to the red any time soon. Conservatives like Romney are increasingly out of step there.

 

[Leoreth]

In the end, it will come down to the economy and gas... All these stupid issues that the media is throwing about like gay marriage and birth control... it's to take the spotlight off the economy. Pretty obvious ploy... but if the economy doesn't get markedly better... siyonara Obama!

You act as if the discussion about gay marriage and birth control was started by the liberal camp.

 

[kochman]

You act as if the discussion about gay marriage and birth control was started by the liberal camp.

Ummm, no... I point out these relatively minor issues are being blown up by the media... nowhere in that statement does it say or hint that it even matters where it started.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

Economy is only news when it's a)easy to make b)easy to explain and c)happening (meaning crashing or soaring)

Both gay marriage and birth control are easily made by default if you ignore sanity in the debate, foaming at the mouth people with opinions are easier to find in those areas.

 

[downtown]

But the midwest and the south isn't enough.

Every southern state + Iowa + Ohio + the super republican mountain states = 272 electoral votes. That isn't counting Colorado, New Mexico or Nevada.

I think you are underestimating the anti-Obama sentiment in the state.

Its possible, but I doubt it. Ohio may be a more culturally conservative state, but its very culturally blue-collar, and very pro labor. They elected a guy like Romney for Governor and they hate him.

I lived in Ohio for 21 years too.

I thought you knew more about Mitt than this? He can actually claim Mexican citizenship, should he so please... and perhaps run for President there after he wins here, making him the first Dualy!

1) I'm not super sure this is true (I thought the claim on parental citizenship comes through your mother, not your father).
2) Have you ever heard of him talking about his "Mexican Heritage"? He doesn't have any...his dad was born into an American community Mormon castaways. My grandpa was born there too. Doesn't make me Mexican.

what's Obama's experience with the hispanics?

He won nearly 70% of the Latino vote last election cycle, against a guy that had a strong pro-immigration record. Unless Mittens puts Rubio on the ticket, there is no way he's losing market share to a candidate with an anti-immigration stance.

 

[Ice_Tyrant]

Yes, these silly non-pandering truth telling conservatives. So 1950.

Heh. The other day I made a joke about how Santorum really was very 1950's. Well maybe that is still to liberal for him and his base.

Really I don't see the problem. It's not like they don't teach english in Puerto Rico anyway. Even if they had a governer that didn't know english you could easily find someone to translate. It's just Santorum trying to win over more of that uneducated racist demographic he's doing good with. I remember the other day I was reading an Onion article that said "Rick Santorum secretly relieved he hasn't been asked about his views on interracial marriage yet" or something like that. I remember thinking that I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if he really was against it. I also remember thinking "Most of his supporters would probably agree with those views anyway."

 

[kochman]

Every southern state + Iowa + Ohio + the super republican mountain states = 272 electoral votes. That isn't counting Colorado, New Mexico or Nevada.

There are many ways to skin the cat. True. Romney has several paths to victory... and defeat.

Its possible, but I doubt it. Ohio may be a more culturally conservative state, but its very culturally blue-collar, and very pro labor. They elected a guy like Romney for Governor and they hate him.

I don't know enough about that guy... but I also couldn't find state polling to show Obama vs Romney.
EDIT: Found the RCP... Romney is behind, slightly, and the top amongst Repubs vs Obama.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ohio_obama_vs_republicans.html

1) I'm not super sure this is true (I thought the claim on parental citizenship comes through your mother, not your father).
2) Have you ever heard of him talking about his "Mexican Heritage"? He doesn't have any...his dad was born into an American community Mormon castaways. My grandpa was born there too. Doesn't make me Mexican.

He doesn't play it up for exactly those reasons (not to mention it should be irrelevant). The point is, he has some level of roots there, a connection. His son being a missionary in S America (with his approval), etc.

He won nearly 70% of the Latino vote last election cycle, against a guy that had a strong pro-immigration record. Unless Mittens puts Rubio on the ticket, there is no way he's losing market share to a candidate with an anti-immigration stance.

Rubio may very well be on the ticket. Anyhow, McCain blew it on a lot of levels, so using a landslide election, that happened once, isn't that helpful.
Bush Jr showed WAY better amongst hispanics, for example.

 

[Leoreth]

Ummm, no... I point out these relatively minor issues are being blown up by the media... nowhere in that statement does it say or hint that it even matters where it started.

Your statement implies there's a liberal ploy to distract from the economic problems by bringing up the contraceptive and abortion debates (either by starting or promulgating them). When in fact, it was Republican candidates who started the debate, and conservative media who made a big fuss about it. So it's more the Republicans shooting their own feet than an outside attempt to weaken them.

 

[kochman]

Your statement implies there's a liberal ploy to distract from the economic problems by bringing up the contraceptive and abortion debates (either by starting or promulgating them). When in fact, it was Republican candidates who started the debate, and conservative media who made a big fuss about it. So it's more the Republicans shooting their own feet than an outside attempt to weaken them.

Uh, sure. If you say so.
Who started the debate is rather irrelevant to what I said...

The mass media is blowing this stuff out of proportion in the US. It's super annoying.

 

[madviking]

Virginia will be an interesting state. js