Timsup2nothin
Deity
- Joined
- Apr 2, 2013
- Messages
- 46,737
That's a mistake. He should be in the debates now, while the format favors him, and maybe skip later.
Trump is acting petulant all the time, it doesn't seem to hurt him.I think it would be a serious misstep to skip the debate. He'll look petulant. One thing Trump cannot survive is ridicule that sticks. Calling him crazy is fine. Calling him childish is not.
I think the reason this hasn't happened yet is that it would be, er, Rubio. That guy only looks moderate because Cruz is running! It would be a very strange election where Rubio is the moderate's choice in the GOP!!At this point the only way to avoid Trump or Cruz is for the all of the other candidates but one to drop out and endorse the one remaining insider candidate. Who would probably be Rubio.
Trump says he will skip the debate. He may be getting too arrogant.
“We learned from a secret back channel that the Ayatollah and Putin both intend to treat Donald Trump unfairly when they meet with him if he becomes president — a nefarious source tells us that Trump has his own secret plan to replace the Cabinet with his Twitter followers to see if he should even go to those meetings.”
I think its a brilliant move strategically. He's already in the lead, but its close. Another debate just gives Cruz a chance to embarrass him. Also, that debate is a bear-trap and he knows it. All the candidates will be trying to drag him down obviously. Ted Cruz has already shown that he can out-debate Trump and Cruz will be in desperation mode to bring Trump down somehow. Megan Kelley despises him, and she will obviously be out to embarrass him. That debate is a no-win scenario for Trump. He is very shrewd to skip it. Sure it's cowardly, but now all that anyone will be talking about is Trump skipping the debate. Once again he corners all the media attention.Trump says he will skip the debate. He may be getting too arrogant.
Yeah, I really would have expected a more professional behavior from the Ayatollah or Putin.Fox News actually made a pretty great statement: (things I'd never thought I'd say???)
“We learned from a secret back channel that the Ayatollah and Putin both intend to treat Donald Trump unfairly when they meet with him if he becomes president — a nefarious source tells us that Trump has his own secret plan to replace the Cabinet with his Twitter followers to see if he should even go to those meetings.”
Now, granted, this isn't really professional on their part, either, but really, has Donald ever deserved that?
FOX messed up... That statement basically ceded their moral high ground. He was looking for an excuse to skip this debate, and they gave it to him, because they childishly couldn't resist taking a shot at him. It also exposes their bias against him, which again, essentially justifies him skipping the debate.Yeah, I really would have expected a more professional behavior from the Ayatollah or Putin.
I think its a brilliant move strategically. He's already in the lead, but its close. Another debate just gives Cruz a chance to embarrass him. Also, that debate is a bear-trap and he knows it. All the candidates will be trying to drag him down obviously. Ted Cruz has already shown that he can out-debate Trump and Cruz will be in desperation mode to bring Trump down somehow. Megan Kelley despises him, and she will obviously be out to embarrass him. That debate is a no-win scenario for Trump. He is very shrewd to skip it. Sure it's cowardly, but now all that anyone will be talking about is Trump skipping the debate. Once again he corners all the media attention.
Another bonus for Trump, is he will probably gain in the polls by skipping the debate. First of all, nobody cares about the other candidates, they only watch to see Trump. People aren't even going to watch the debate when they find out he's not there. So the other candidates won't be able to benefit from it. The ratings will be lower and Trump will get to mock FOX and point out how insignificant the other candidates are compared to him. It will just further the narrative that he is the man and the rest are losers. And of course the "coward" label will slide off him because his supporters will say he is "courageous" for standing up the establishment's FOX News and political correctness.
Sure, they will all take a stab at Trump's empty chair, calling him a scaredy-cat and such, but its kind of a lose-lose for them. If they spend the whole debate talking about Trump, they look pathetic, like the little dog that only barks when you aren't looking at it. Also, it just reinforces the fact that he is the man and they are a bunch of haters/losers, so they will probably just hit Trump with a one liner and move on to attacking Cruz. And If I know Trump, he will use his event as a platform to basically monitor what they are saying and mock them and rebut them anyway.
And finally, the best part (from Trump's perspective) is that with him gone, everyone is going to be attacking Cruz. With Trump gone, Cruz is going to be absolutely eviscerated, and Cruz will be totally unprepared. His whole strategy was going to be attacking Trump, now he has to come up with some last minute, Johnny-on-the-spot BS cause Trump isn't there, and it will show. I'm calling the no-show a win for Trump.
Nah, most of his supporters will just see it as him not "playing games" and not "bowing to the system". They're not smart enough to realize that he is running to be "the man".
Are not the primaries FPTP*? If so, then he can get by with ~30% of the vote and win the nomination so long as the other contenders get less votes than him.
*err, I don't think there's an electoral college equivalent with primaries, but what I mean is he just has to get a plurality of votes, not an outright majority. At least I think that's how the primaries work.
Are not the primaries FPTP*? If so, then he can get by with ~30% of the vote and win the nomination so long as the other contenders get less votes than him.
*err, I don't think there's an electoral college equivalent with primaries, but what I mean is he just has to get a plurality of votes, not an outright majority. At least I think that's how the primaries work.
So in other words, yeah, he actually can win with ~30% of the vote. Sure, it may cause some chaos at the convention but it's not impossible and indeed somewhat likely that it could happen if everyone else gets less votes than him.
short story:Are not the primaries FPTP*? If so, then he can get by with ~30% of the vote and win the nomination so long as the other contenders get less votes than him.
*err, I don't think there's an electoral college equivalent with primaries, but what I mean is he just has to get a plurality of votes, not an outright majority. At least I think that's how the primaries work.
Trump is acting petulant all the time, it doesn't seem to hurt him.
I have to admit, a little part of me actually gained some respect for Trump after this. He's playing the game at a level far above the rest of these clowns, and he's not afraid to make bold, out-of-the-box moves when the potential payoff is there. I'm less convinced now that Trump would get slaughtered in the general. Anyone with this keen a sense of how to use the media and the moment to maximum advantage the way Trump has could be a dangerous adversary.