Ukrainian Revolution master thread

[Domen]

Belarussians protesting against Russian intervention in Ukraine arrested by Lukashenko's (another Russian puppet after Yanukovych) regime:

http://belsat.eu/en/wiadomosci/a,18...demning-russias-intervention-photo-video.html

I suppose soon we will going to have a Belarussian Revolution as well. Finally!

 

[Winner]

@Winner, i think Quacker's newsroom image sums it up pretty nicely: you are expecting help from people who don't even know what the Ukraine or other countries there are called. Not a good idea.

News TV channels of all kinds are known for these gaffes - they operate under conditions of extreme time pressure and it is pretty easy for funny mistakes like this one to get on air. I guess the graphics guy could use more lessons on contemporary political geography.

I would also imagine the people who are really responsible for foreign policy (i.e. diplomats, foreign ministers and premiers/presidents) are better informed. I don't understand why would you have me believe that an inaccurate map shown on TV somehow makes my position regarding the events in Ukraine wrong.

(BTW, it's just Ukraine, not "the" Ukraine).

 

[Formaldehyde]

Despite you know... the media reporting on it.

You mean despite me showing that even Secretary of State John Kerry claimed that it is more a matter of impression than actual facts at this stage?

Secretary of State John F. Kerry spoke Friday with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.

“We raised the issue of the airports, raised the issue of armored vehicles, raised the issue of personnel in various places,” Kerry said. “And while we were told that they are not engaging in any violation of the sovereignty and do not intend to, I nevertheless made it clear that that could be misinterpreted at this moment, and that there are enough tensions that it is important for everybody to be extremely careful not to inflame the situation and not to send the wrong messages.”

So until we have actual proof that Russian troops are "gradually seizing all strategic points and installations on the peninsula" it is just so much speculation.

Again:

It will be quite interesting to see which it turns out to be in this particular case.

I await more corroborated facts to emerge to form my own opinions in this matter. YMMV.

I would also imagine the people who are really responsible for foreign policy (i.e. diplomats, foreign ministers and premiers/presidents) are better informed.

You mean like John Kerry? Again, don't you think he likely has access to far more reliable intelligence in this matter than us? Why haven't the EU and the US come out and condemned this supposed invasion of Ukraine by foreign troops?

 

[Domen]

BTW, when I wrote about Russians who are against Putin, I mentioned Decembrist from Historum.com:



And also:



And also:



And also:



And also:



He also posted this as a response to Russian propaganda slanders calling Ukrainian freedom fighters "anti-Semites":

 

[Mouthwash]

Why is Obama even condemning it anyway, much less threatening Russia? After the Syria fiasco, I'd have thought he'd have learnt something. Staying neutral, reiterating vague commitments to peace and territorial integrity, and capitalizing on the situation if the Kremlin oversteps is the correct thing to do. The way he's going, he's just speaking loudly and carrying a small stick. And the US gets the blame for renewing hostilities with Russia to boot.

 

[TheLastOne36]

@Domen, I am not surprised that there are pro-Maidan groups in Jerusalem. Many Israelis are ethnic Ukrainians.

 

[mrdab]

I await more corroborated facts to emerge to form my own opinions in this matter. YMMV.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/01/ukraine-warns-russia-military-crimea-intervention-war
"Ukraine PM warns of war as Russian military seizes control in Crimea"

http://news.yahoo.com/russian-troops-over-ukraines-crimea-region-200052097.html

And from China
http://english.cntv.cn/program/newsupdate/20140302/104372.shtml
Hundreds of unidentified gunmen are reported to be surrounding a military base in Privolnoye in Crimea, blocking Ukrainian soldiers from leaving.

 

[Domen]

@TLO36 - Ukrainian Jews, you mean.

 

[TheLastOne36]

@TLO36 - Ukrainian Jews, you mean.

Yes. However this doesn't disprove that there aren't anti-semetic right-wing groups or sects in the Maidan movement.

Which I am inclined to believe do exist, just not to the extent that the Russian posters on here would have us believe their influence to be.

 

[mrdab]

Why is Obama even condemning it anyway, much less threatening Russia? After the Syria fiasco, I'd have thought he'd have learnt something. Staying neutral, reiterating vague commitments to peace and territorial integrity, and capitalizing on the situation if the Kremlin oversteps is the correct thing to do. The way he's going, he's just speaking loudly and carrying a small stick. And the US gets the blame for renewing hostilities with Russia to boot.

In Budapest Memorandum Ukraine agreed to get rid of nuclear weapons for a guarantee of territorial integrity and indepedence - USA is one of the guarantors, so it has to react - and I assure you that hardly anyone (maybe with exception of Russia, and anti-Western / anti-US brigades) will blame USA for such a escalation.

 

[Aleksey_aka_al]

Well, considering how "spam" and impoliteness is tolerated in this thread, it seems "Quod licet Iovi, non licet bovi" and double standards work here too.

I especially like this one:

My first suggestion would be that posters stop acting like trolls and idiots, so that I don't bang my head in a wall when someone make cretinous comparisons, like being bailed out is equal to being invaded.

 

[kramerfan86]

Belarussians protesting against Russian intervention in Ukraine arrested by Lukashenko's (another Russian puppet after Yanukovych) regime:

http://belsat.eu/en/wiadomosci/a,18...demning-russias-intervention-photo-video.html

I suppose soon we will going to have a Belarussian Revolution as well. Finally!

Belarus will be free when their dictator finally dies.

 

[Formaldehyde]

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/01/ukraine-warns-russia-military-crimea-intervention-war
"Ukraine PM warns of war as Russian military seizes control in Crimea"

http://news.yahoo.com/russian-troops-over-ukraines-crimea-region-200052097.html

And from China
http://english.cntv.cn/program/newsupdate/20140302/104372.shtml
Hundreds of unidentified gunmen are reported to be surrounding a military base in Privolnoye in Crimea, blocking Ukrainian soldiers from leaving.

Again, I have never disputed that Russia sent troops to guard their quite legitimate military bases and civilians living nearby them.

Did any of these stories present indisputable facts that Russian troops are "gradually seizing all strategic points and installations on the peninsula" which I missed?

If you watch the video in the Yahoo article, it claims that the Crimean president is responsible for the troops at the airport and at some intersections, not Russia.

 

[Winner]

This is just too much I'll leave others to deal with Form because I really don't have the strength...

 

[warpus]

Putin's move seems to be strategically sound, as much as I disagree with where things are going.

1. His supporters & electorate back home probably wanted him to do something.
2. He wants to be seen as a strong & confident leader, reminiscent of Soviet days.
3. Russia does have a military base there after all.. Things need to be looked after.
4. This is seen as a national security issue by Putin and a lot of other Russians - something that is happening in their back yard and their ancestral stomping grounds. A place where a majority Russian population exists.
5. Who's going to stop Russia.. in Crimea? The military engagement appears to be bordering on the minimal. It's a bit shady, but if he gets called out on it by U.S. warships & stealth bombers, which probably won't even happen, he can just back down before they even arrive.
6. It's a minimal risk move, even though it does sour his relationship with the west a bit.
7. The Russian military has been modernized and beefed up a bit recently, let's give them something to do.
8. It puts Russia in a good starting negotiating position if it controls the things with boots on the ground.

In terms of a chess move, it almost seems to be the obvious one to make, from Putin's point of view anyway.

I just wonder what's going to happen once the dust settles a bit. Ukraine is obviously going to move closer towards EU membership. Crimea might become independent? Ideally it would remain a part of Ukraine with maybe even more autonomy, but what if that's not what the people who live there want?

 

[Domen]

What "their civilians" are you writing about, Form?

These are citizens of Ukraine, not of Russia.

 

[Formaldehyde]

There are Russian civilians who work at the Russian military bases, just as there are American civilians who do that same at virtually all overseas American military bases.

Regarding your new avatar, hasn't Ukraine actually been "free" from Soviet control for well over two decades now? Again, how many "revolutions" do you think it will take before then have a democratic government which you personally agree?

 

[red_elk]

It's de facto in control of the Ukranians state

Actually, it's not in control of Ukraine. And I think this might be the main reason of current Putin's backing of Crimean separatism. To de-legitimize this self-proclaimed government. It is not democratically elected and it doesn't control large part of the country. I'm not sure if they control even Western regions, after naz "right sector" activists promises to hang their interior minister on a branch. And biting off a piece of Ukraine and having the rest of the country going to NATO on a double is certainly not the outcome what Putin would like to have. He has something else in mind.

 

[Gucumatz]

I really only see 2 possible outcomes coming from all of this.

1. Crimea becomes a part of Russia again [or at worst for Russia, a basic protectorate]
2. The current leadership in Ukraine is once again overthrown and a new pro-Russian leader comes to power returning Ukraine back into the Russian sphere. I am surprised there haven't been attempts at a counter-coup yet in the west. I just can't see all of the Ukraine coming into the west's fold sadly.

 

[Kyriakos]

Putin's move seems to be strategically sound, as much as I disagree with where things are going.

1. His supporters & electorate back home probably wanted him to do something.
2. He wants to be seen as a strong & confident leader, reminiscent of Soviet days.
3. Russia does have a military base there after all.. Things need to be looked after.
4. This is seen as a national security issue by Putin and a lot of other Russians - something that is happening in their back yard and their ancestral stomping grounds. A place where a majority Russian population exists.
5. Who's going to stop Russia.. in Crimea? The military engagement appears to be bordering on the minimal. It's a bit shady, but if he gets called out on it by U.S. warships & stealth bombers, which probably won't even happen, he can just back down before they even arrive.
6. It's a minimal risk move, even though it does sour his relationship with the west a bit.
7. The Russian military has been modernized and beefed up a bit recently, let's give them something to do.
8. It puts Russia in a good starting negotiating position if it controls the things with boots on the ground.

In terms of a chess move, it almost seems to be the obvious one to make, from Putin's point of view anyway.

I just wonder what's going to happen once the dust settles a bit. Ukraine is obviously going to move closer towards EU membership. Crimea might become independent? Ideally it would remain a part of Ukraine with maybe even more autonomy, but what if that's not what the people who live there want?

I did want to believe that Crimea would remain in Ukraine, with more autonomy etc, but by now it looks that this is not going to happen, cause even if some sort of deal like that was to be negotiated it would surely involve a new government in Kiev and some more ties to Russia, while already the climate can hardly be any worse between those two countries.
So, really, i think that Crimea will no longer be part of Ukraine by the end of this.

Which is horrible, of course. It won't go down without any effect. For starters it will sink Ukraine even further down the collapse it was heading to.

On the other hand maybe (?) Russia will deliberately ask for far less than it is expected to, which will have other sorts of consequences.

*

I am not sure who started all this, nor what they now want. The revolts were massive and brutal, but the immediate take-over of Crimea by Russian troops was also a hugely dramatic move. I think that- regardless of what else happens- this would be the moment that it became globally a lot clearer that there is no more a facade of "justice" and the other pompous crap we had been hearing for years now, and some people even believed them to be true in regards to the role of "western" countries as keepers of the world's safety.
Either way, if one in the future would want to note a more obvious moment of the fall of US from "sole superpower" status, the current one would not be the least likely to be mentioned.