2020 US Election (Part One)

[Traitorfish]

The reality is that the Republican electorate is pretty static and consistent, while the Democrats turnout is prone to huge swings, depending on how energized/inspired/motivated they are.

I maintain that this is true of the left generally. The left should start worrying less about who people are voting for, and start worry about whether they are voting, because we know for damn sure that's what the right are worried about.

 

[onejayhawk]

I said no such thing. You're strawmanning.

When you said turnout was "self-evident in final vote count." you treated intra-party differences as a non-factor, ie negligible.

For election purposes...being "in neither party" is irrelevant when you vote for the candidate of one of the parties... as I've explained to many an "independent".

You may have tried to explain it, but it shouldn't work because it is not true. Independents and third-party adherents are what the name says, unaffiliated with either party. The whole point here is the proportion of those that clearly Republicans that do not show up to vote.

I maintain that this is true of the left generally. The left should start worrying less about who people are voting for, and start worry about whether they are voting, because we know for damn sure that's what the right are worried about.

Less true of the left than the right. As Sommer says, Republicans are more consistent in their voting patterns.

J

 

[Rashiminos]

Ted Cruz is ambitious, capable, and extremely organized. He's a self-centered, self-involved, unlikeable jerk so no one in his own party really likes him, much less the opposition. That will not keep him from being the next President, either in 2020 or 2024.

Trumpism is just the latest brand-name of something much older. For example, I always liked the name silent majority. Whatever it may be called, it's the group created by the false labels of the day. One very popular misconception is to call Trump is a populist, even though populists are not pro-business. What he did was identify a theme that had been shamed into silence and gave it a voice.

There was a recent study that showed that the most intolerant group is highly educated whites. It is also one of the most liberal groups.

J

Ambitious and organized? Maybe. Capable? Of what. As you say, his being "self-involved" does not work in his favor. His new beard is printing new political checks I guess. Meanwhile, the DSCC is pushing a lot of green weight in Texas these days. Got some replacements that can survive a primary?

(Maybe ask someone from (c-word-2)shed.com.., er Bulwark?)

 

[Takhisis]

The reality is that the Republican electorate is pretty static and consistent, while the Democrats turnout is prone to huge swings, depending on how energized/inspired/motivated they are.

I maintain that this is true of the left generally. The left should start worrying less about who people are voting for, and start worry about whether they are voting, because we know for damn sure that's what the right are worried about.

Which is evidenced by the obvious (to the point of often being self-admitted outright) efforts to prevent blacks, Injuns, immigrants, etc. from voting.

 

[onejayhawk]

Which is evidenced by the obvious (to the point of often being self-admitted outright) efforts to prevent blacks, Injuns, immigrants, etc. from voting.

You say that as if all immigrants should be allowed to vote. Maybe in your reality but not under the US Constitution.

J

 

[Takhisis]

Well, no, obviously children shouldn't vote.

 

[cardgame]

You say that as if all immigrants should be allowed to vote. Maybe in your reality but not under the US Constitution.

J

The irony is that the native americans were the ones who were denied their right to vote in 2018

 

[metalhead]

How was Romney a failed candidate? True, he lost but it was a respectable showing against an incumbent.

John Kerry thanks you for the compliment.

 

[stinkubus]

Care to share a link to this study?

 

[Gori the Grey]

What he did was identify a theme that had been shamed into silence and gave it a voice.

I think this is an absolutely accurate formulation, along the lines of analyses I've offered on this site.

I also think, however, that Cruz does not possess Trump's skill for finding and voicing such a theme.

 

[stinkubus]

If he (Cruz) did then he would've won the 2016 primary.

 

[Sommerswerd]

I think this is an absolutely accurate formulation, along the lines of analyses I've offered on this site.

I also think, however, that Cruz does not possess Trump's skill for finding and voicing such a theme.

Unsurprisingly... I disagree

I think Ted Cruz is fully capable of carrying the water of this "theme" of which you speak... as well as voicing it. I also think he is possessed of the exact type of character and moral fiber that would be required, in order to take up such a mantle, particularly in the service of his own political advancement. I do not however, think that Cruz has the charisma, including the folksy'ness of Baby Bush or Trump... that would be necessary to capitalize on that mantle the way Trump did.

In short... Cruz is a weasel and nobody likes him. He wins in Texas because he is Republican. A wooden duck with a broken bill could win as a Republican in Texas.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

A wooden duck with a broken bill could win as a Republican in Texas.

Not for long.

 

[Gori the Grey]

I do not however, think that Cruz has the charisma, including the folksy'ness of Baby Bush or Trump... that would be necessary to capitalize on that mantle the way Trump did.

It's the precisely the lack of requisite charisma* that makes me deem Cruz incapable. A huge part of the "voicing," and even a certain part of the "finding," involves charisma.

*hard to use that word of Trump, though I know it is true of the appeal he has to his followers

 

[Sommerswerd]

Not for long.

Well as we've heard from our resident "independents"... that's what "The Wall" is really for... and Democrats would've done it if only they were the ones who needed to suppress the vote of anyone outside a very narrow demographic

Anyway... all the above being said... I do think Cruz could beat Hickenlooper, Buttigeig or Inslee, maybe even Gilibrand or Klobuchar... based purely on name recognition and maybe the names themselves.

*hard to use that word of Trump, though I know it is true of the appeal he has to his followers

In a way, it was the same "charisma" that got him a'paddlin' from Stormy Daniels.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Well as we've heard from our resident "independents"... that's what "The Wall" is really for... and Democrats would've done it if only they were the ones who needed to suppress the vote of anyone outside a very narrow demographic

Anyway... that above being said... I do think Cruz could beat Hickenlooper, Buttigeig or Inslee, maybe even Gilibrand or Klobuchar... based purely on name recognition and maybe the names themselves.

By the time someone wins the Democratic party nomination they will have plenty of name recognition.

 

[Sommerswerd]

By the time someone wins the Democratic party nomination they will have plenty of name recognition.

Meh... Kerry, Dukakis, Mondale... I dunno man. Even moreso in this day-and-age, I think you need to come in with some star-power to begin with, or the hill is to high... particularly against a Bond Villain/Monopoly-guy/Amateur Porn star.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Meh... Kerry, Dukakis, Mondale... I dunno man. Even moreso in this day-and-age, I think you need to come in with some star-power to begin with, or the hill is to high... particularly against a Bond Villain/Monopoly-guy/Amateur Porn star.

Those three, in particular Dukakis, never did a damn thing worthy of mention other than winning the Democratic party nomination, and yet we all know their names even today. I rest my case; winning the nomination, in itself, produces all the necessary name recognition.

 

[Gori the Grey]

Yeah, Tim's right, once it gets down to a two-person race, you get all the press you need, because you're one of two horses in the press' two-horse horse-race.

Trump got a massive influx of legitimacy from this fact. People who don't tune in much just assigned him all the credit one gives to whoever it is that is one of two horses in the two-horse horse-race.

 

[onejayhawk]

John Kerry thanks you for the compliment.

Kerry was a better candidate. If it were not for his position on Iraq, I might have voted for him.

I think this is an absolutely accurate formulation, along the lines of analyses I've offered on this site.

I also think, however, that Cruz does not possess Trump's skill for finding and voicing such a theme.

Agreed. Cruz's message is much more tailored to the traditional party message. He will not pack football stadiums, as Trump did, but his organization will be much better.

J