2020 US Election (Part One)

[Farm Boy]

It's all good; my wife is going into mental health treatment for sexual assault/domestic abuse survivors, something that has a monumentally apocalyptic shortage of funding and resources, and is going to walk out of school with over 100k in loan debt because of the education it requires, but ever since Biden said millennials have it easy and need to suck it up (maybe by touching more preteen girls? idk), I have decided he is not my enemy.

Seems a challenge to owe most/all your life goals, structure, and economics to something that will take your entire life to pay for(God willing without using life insurance), that you pray will hold value, and that everyone has an opinion on how you're effing it up for everybody. I wish both her, and you, the best. For real real.

 

[Socrates99]

Something that I admit, I sort of forgot... but was reminded of yesterday... is how much the 2016 result was about people hating Hillary, specifically... Not simply "the status quo" or "Washington insiders" or "moderates" or "the establishment"... but specifically Hillary Clinton.

Looking at the results last night, where Biden flipped so many counties/districts where Bernie crushed Hillary last cycle... I'm starting to think that there is a flaw in the "moderate lost last time, so can't win this time" narrative. The loss in 2016 may have had Hillary-dislike at its foundation rather than establishment-aversion. I can't say for sure, but those results last night were pretty eye-opening.

It's pretty easy. If they are refusing to recognize the obvious then they are in the 40% that are lost. Trump won because of the people who knew he was a groping corrupt spewer of gibberish but believed an "outsider businessman" could "bring a fresh perspective that would make things better despite all the personal failings," and that Trump was "so rich he was able to set business aside and devote himself to public service." Those people are now freely available to be brought across the line, so if you run into a "Trump is really a good guy compared to evil Biden" true believer just politely move on and find one of them.

I hope you guys are right but it kind of ignores why people hated Hillary. I had tons of conversations with swing voters. Her husband's philandering negated the gropey Trump criticism. Her own corrupt foundation negated the Trump's a con criticism. Her husband's role in NAFTA, her role in Iraq, Afghanistan and other foreign interventions, etc hurt her vs Trump's trade protectionism. It wasn't just "I don't know, she's just unlikable."

Now we have Biden who has not only the failson dragging him down but also a brother who's profited from his career. There's no shortage of footage of Biden obviously making people uncomfortable by invading personal space. His strength of being hitched to Obama becomes a weakness in the states that swung the election to Trump because of Obama's full throated support of the TPP. Even while Trump is obviously failing mentally there's a mountain of gaffes from this election cycle alone that makes Joe look awful.

I know the criticism I'm going to have to fence with swing voters when I try to push Joe. I'd much rather be fighting for an honest actor.

 

[DJNotNice]

Given how conservative Hispanic immigrants tend to be as well as the continuing clampdown on immigration, there's no assurance that will be enough to create a "blue tide" In fact, some Texas are more likely to blame liberal white Californians moving here turning the state blue.

Also since someone brought up SNL, anyone else think Maya Rudolph's performance sunk her campaign? She was up in the polls then went down like a rock lol

 

[Timsup2nothin]

I would not have thought it contentious to describe a relative political outsider winning over forty percent of declared delegates "successful". If insisting upon this will cause unnecessary distress, I am happy to amend my claim to "as successful as he has been". But the point remains unchanged: Sanders has successfully appealed to sections of the electorate who are either disenchanted with the Democratic leadership, or actively hostile to it. He did not create this sentiment, he has simply given it voice at a natural level. Pretending that this is not the case because admitting as much is inconvenient for your short-term political goals is, at best, naive, at worst, wilfully self-destructive.

Appealing to a minority that is insufficient to win an election and excluding all others may be the veritable backbone of party formation in a multi-party parliamentary system such as yours. In the two party system it cannot work. And the fact is that anyone can do it. I could "start a movement" targeting disaffected foreclosed homeowners and promising that my only concern should I be elected is the restoration of their homes and credit rating. I would garner some number of fanatical supporters, but that number would be too small to get me elected. That is, in a nutshell, the approach Sanders has taken. While he found a larger disaffected minority, they are still too small to get him elected, thus his campaign failed and seems on track to fail again. His followers will be left disenchanted and that will be the end of that...and that is no one's fault but his.

 

[Takhisis]

Doesn't look any worse than 30 Rock.

My point exactly.

I would not have thought it contentious to describe a relative political outsider winning over forty percent of declared delegates "successful". If insisting upon this will cause unnecessary distress, I am happy to amend my claim to "as successful as he has been". But the point remains unchanged: Sanders has successfully appealed to sections of the electorate who are either disenchanted with the Democratic leadership, or actively hostile to it. He did not create this sentiment, he has simply given it voice at a natural level. Pretending that this is not the case because admitting as much is inconvenient for your short-term political goals is, at best, naive, at worst, wilfully self-destructive.

I wonder how many of those people would even be thinking of voting for the Democratic Party since they've bothered to register for the primaries.
It might turn out to help, instead of, say, a third-party candidacy like Ralph Nader's in 2000.

 

[Zardnaar]

If disillusioned Bernie supporters vote Biden I imagine the Dems will keep pushing healthcare.

If they sit it out and throw the election to Trump not only do you fail to get an improvement on healthcare but you have the GoP actively trying to dismantle the ACA.

Trump's been distracted with mid terms/re-election/impeachment but I remember 2017. Only reason ACA survived was because McCain voted no and he's dead now.

Trump wins he keeps stacking the judiciary, RBG isn't getting any younger and you can always bounce back in 2024/28.

Sanders lost, the progressives underperformed in 2018.

The downside of promising the moon is disillusionment. Even if Sanders turns it around and wins student loan forgiveness and a green new deal are going nowhere.

 

[Traitorfish]

Appealing to a minority that is insufficient to win an election and excluding all others may be the veritable backbone of party formation in a multi-party parliamentary system such as yours. In the two party system it cannot work. And the fact is that anyone can do it. I could "start a movement" targeting disaffected foreclosed homeowners and promising that my only concern should I be elected is the restoration of their homes and credit rating. I would garner some number of fanatical supporters, but that number would be too small to get me elected. That is, in a nutshell, the approach Sanders has taken. While he found a larger disaffected minority, they are still too small to get him elected, thus his campaign failed and seems on track to fail again. His followers will be left disenchanted and that will be the end of that...and that is no one's fault but his.

This is not about a vocal minority of die-hard Sanders activists. This is about the large number of people whose attitude towards the leadership of the Democratic Party ranges from distrust to hostility. They did not not need Sanders to tell them that Biden is not their friend; they figured this out by themselves. Sanders has simply given these existing attitudes a presence on the debate stage. That Sanders cannot win with only these sections of the electorate is wholly besides the point that the Democratic Party as a whole cannot win without them. You can't run a campaign on the assumption that tens of millions of people who would happily piss on your corpse will turn out on your behalf, but every shred of evidence indicates that this is what the Democratic Party intends to do, and that it intends to keep doing so indefinitely.

You cannot possibly imagine that this is sustainable.

 

[GoodEnoughForMe]

"Bernie supporters" include a sizable plurality of Latinx and Asian American voters, far and away the two fastest growing demographics in the country, so I'd suggest we don't "ah, well, shucks" them. Biden literally worked for an administration that popularized deterrence that Trump then weaponized, so, you know. I'd be pretty peeved if the idea of "kids in cages" becomes a "complicated issue" that we "can't solve" or something

 

[Zardnaar]

This is not about a vocal minority of die-hard Sanders activists. This is about the large number of people whose attitude towards the leadership of the Democratic Party ranges from distrust to hostility. They did not not need Sanders to tell them that Biden is not their friend; they figured this out by themselves. Sanders has simply given these existing attitudes a presence on the debate stage. That Sanders cannot win with only these sections of the electorate is wholly besides the point that the Democratic Party as a whole cannot win without them. You can't run a campaign on the assumption that tens of millions of people who would happily piss on your corpse will turn out on your behalf, but every shred of evidence indicates that this is what the Democratic Party intends to do, and that it intends to keep doing so indefinitely.

You cannot possibly imagine that this is sustainable.

So we let an extreme minority run the country or probably lose to Trump?

If Sanders stood in New Zealand with proportional representation and a vastly more liberal electorate guess what? He still loses. He would be leader of a minor party with 5-13% of the vote.

At that point he can compromise and go into coalition government or be on the outside and get nothing passed.

A brokered convention is essentially coalition building in a proportional system.

Atm he can't even win a majority of people who bother voting in Democratic primaries.

It's not like he full is of bad ideas.

 

[Farm Boy]

You should have been mad when it "became simple" too. It's never been simple.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

This is not about a vocal minority of die-hard Sanders activists.

I never said it was. I said that Sanders is appealing to a minority that cannot elect him, and openly sneering at everyone who isn't part of his merry little band. While his supporters currently have a reserve of enthusiasm for his "cause" there is no possible end other than disillusion since they cannot win.

The funny thing is that they believe Sanders pretense that this is all new. "Why don't the young turn out in the US?" is a really easy question to answer...the answer is Sanders, and all the similar "movement founders" that have come before. It's easy for me, because I have the benefit of having listened to my older brother in his rabidly passionate support for how McGovern was going to sweep into Washington at the head of an army of young people and tear my father's world down around his ears. I wish I had recordings, because if I played it back through the parts where he isn't mentioning McGovern by name it could have been recorded in 2016.

 

[Zardnaar]

I never said it was. I said that Sanders is appealing to a minority that cannot elect him, and openly sneering at everyone who isn't part of his merry little band. While his supporters currently have a reserve of enthusiasm for his "cause" there is no possible end other than disillusion since they cannot win.

The funny thing is that they believe Sanders pretense that this is all new. "Why don't the young turn out in the US?" is a really easy question to answer...the answer is Sanders, and all the similar "movement founders" that have come before. It's easy for me, because I have the benefit of having listened to my older brother in his rabidly passionate support for how McGovern was going to sweep into Washington at the head of an army of young people and tear my father's world down around his ears. I wish I had recordings, because if I played it back through the parts where he isn't mentioning McGovern by name it could have been recorded in 2016.

Young people don't vote outside of university places. At least in the same numbers.

That's every western nation as well afaik.

 

[Kyriakos]

Not sure in what world nearly 50% of the vote is "a little band". Besides, Biden won't get a majority either, it remains to be seen if he will get a plurality and by what tiny margin.
Using your curious logic according to which percentages are the same regardless of how many people are running, Biden obviously will get less of a percentage than Bernie in 2016 even if he does great, so using Tim-logic he is a loser and part of the minority.

 

[GoodEnoughForMe]

You should have been mad when it "became simple" too. It's never been simple.

I understand the complexities of navigating a super liberal worldview with regard to immigration not always jiving with both some of the politicians who represent it, and some of the populace voting for said politicians, but the country existed fine before both deterrence was amped up under Obama (nor was it something he was voted into office for), and before the Trump escalation. There is a vast ocean to cross between electoral success and kids sleeping on the floor under tin foil. Especially now that a majority of Americans support immigration.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Not sure in what world nearly 50% of the vote is "a little band". .

When it is "nearly" fifty percent of people who vote in democratic primaries. That is not only insufficient to get him elected, it is insufficient to even get him on the ballot. Hence a little band. Sanders got about 13 million votes in 2016...which would have been enough to elect him in 1916...but never since.

 

[Farm Boy]

A majority of Americans have always supported immigration, that they still now do is not new. Targets of exclusion has always been the name of the game even during Tammany. Even when many have been let in, relatively, there are problems. Gangs don't pop up because everything is hunky dory with assimilation at every rate. Trafficking of humans and goods doesn't go away because we open the doors on the process. But yes, it "became simple" at least in discourse(alternate definition required) after it became "we only want professionally successful people, preferably not Hispanic or Muslim." Whole conversation much simpler now. We have not been in an era of historically low immigration. You have to go to about the 1930s I think, to catch foreign born population as a % in the USA to right now.

 

[Traitorfish]

I never said it was. I said that Sanders is appealing to a minority that cannot elect him, and openly sneering at everyone who isn't part of his merry little band. While his supporters currently have a reserve of enthusiasm for his "cause" there is no possible end other than disillusion since they cannot win.

Do you imagine that people who voted for Sanders in the primary would otherwise have been enthusiastic about a Biden candidacy?

 

[Zkribbler]

Bloomberg is out. I hope he takes his defeat with good graces. I remember when Nixon, after losing the Presidency to Kenny and the California Governorship to Pat Brown, was asked if he thought there'd ever be a Black President. Nixon replied, "Only if he run against me."

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Do you imagine that people who voted for Sanders in the primary would otherwise have been enthusiastic about a Biden candidacy?

Couldn't care less. Voting "enthusiastically" is a luxury. Voting for the best available after due deliberation is a responsibility.

 

[Zardnaar]

Not sure in what world nearly 50% of the vote is "a little band". Besides, Biden won't get a majority either, it remains to be seen if he will get a plurality and by what tiny margin.

This is only a fraction of the Democrat party voting.

In the US they're heavily concentrated on the coasts. That's not where the election needs to be won. 2018 midterms the progressives underperformed. The swing against Trump was in the suburbs where centrist candidates carried the day.

The Democratic party is a rough coalition of 3-4 parties or factions. Each faction is maybe 10-12% of the overall electorate.

So the Uber progressives at the most would be maybe 20% of the electorate. If they're hardline about it and don't compromise they can't win.

Let's just say Bernie gets 40% and Biden gets less and Warren and Tulsi carry 30%. The DNC decide and super delegates decide to support Sanders.

He goes on to win the general election. Yay America is socialist. However the other 60% of the Democratic party don't have to support his policies and they answer to their electorates not the president and not the progressive wing of the Democrat party.

Assuming Sanders has the Senate as well to pass any laws he has to get the majority of the other 50% on board.

Even if he gets 60% instead of 40% that's still enough to torpedo anything he wants to do. So he has to compromise.

If a president is super popular or has enough "political capital" to convince the rest of the party to fall in line they have to work out where they can spend that political capital. It's generally enough to pass 1 and probably no more than 2 pieces of significant legislation. Trump managed to pass 1 with a compliant party.

The main issue in these elections seems to be healthcare. Not free tertiary, not global warming, not LBGTQ rights.

The other problem with populists us they promise the moon, sometimes get elected and then discover they can't deliver. Which often gets them voted out.

You've only got two years to pass legislation and then it's midterms. Lose control like Trump did in 2018, no laws passed.