2020 US Election (Part One)
- Thread starter Lexicus
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Lexicus
Deity
It's not. Bernie's loss of MN, TX, and MA tells me he ain't gonna win. I think it's less because of his strategies and more because young people don't vote (and while I do think forms of voter suppression are partially responsible for that I don't think it can all be explained that way).
The entire party establishment closed ranks against him and "the voters" Tim refers to appear to be mostly boomers who have simply gravitated toward the familiar and the safe, because all the propaganda we've been hearing about how Bernie can't win the general and anyway he's coming for your wonderful private health insurance worked. It's doubly unfortunate because all the signs are that when Biden is taken apart in the general election, rather than blaming his "political strategy and tactics" (to say nothing of his manifest mental decline) people like Tim are just going to blame the Bernie babies or whatever snarky term they're using this time around.
And this is why the planet is going to end up fried to a crisp. Because comfortable voters will vote to kill poor people to avoid being 'disrupted'.
Just look up the Flores case. Obama started off doing what Trump's doing now and stopped because a court said he couldn't keep children alone in immigration detention. So instead of detaining whole families as Trump is doing he began the policy you mentioned, of releasing people until their court dates.
That is a difference but it is not large enough for comfort.
Btw there is a reason that Bernie is winning the Latino vote...at least partly because Biden is associated with policies that resulted in the deportation of friends, neighbors and family members.
Hillary Clinton said at the time that the US government jad to send a message thay just because your child crosses the border doesn't mean they get to stay. And Obama's administration sas heavily involved with the "security assistance" (ie, arms and training which both largely ended up at the disposal of the cartels and in fact helped blur the line between the cartels and the state) to Latin American governments that helped to destroy the countries from which the migrants were fleeing.
Socrates99
Bottoms up!
Is that the only reason they give or does the waivering stock market and the lack of faith in his handling of Covid-19 play a role?
Lexicus
Deity
Of course, but that won't stop 'em.
They give no reason, all factors played a role. And indeed if the economy tanks due to Corona hysteria, Trump is screwed.
Cokolwiek
Prince
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Technically it's true. In fact we all know how it is. The same applied to Trump's campaign, his party and mainstream media. Clinton/Biden was/is the establishment choice.
No, that's being a safer bet generally and especially not as strange to Black Democratic voters (which made substantial part of Super Tuesday's votes cast in southern states) who tend to be socially conservative, more family-value-welfare voters, as typically New England's and Western' academia and liberal favourite. Sanders is also simply a little awkward, even to Biden.
Word from outside US: Bloomberg's was no Democratic Trump, Sander's is. There's more to value in candidate than to disregard him because of his sexist, business-world background. His views on foreign and economic policy should matter. But it's no surprise to me, that Democrats don't get it.
And there are as many similraties on Sanders-Trump line as differences. Including being a real outsider, clearly caring about his country and its prospects, knowledge that America is being ripped off both by neocons, knwoing that neocons administration were naive and bleeding America financially, while sleeping when it comes to the real threat (PRC), knowing that fiscal situations and debt matter, more than who grabbed who by what. You may not like candidate, I don;t like Trump personally and he speaks like someone illiterate, but I would vote for him in a heartbeat over Clinton/Biden because he knows where real geopolitcal, economic, and technological challenge is (in the Pacific). And national security, commerce, diplomacy, and enabling small enterprises and avarage workers to generate more wealth, should take precedent to adjusting how affluent citizens are (which is healthcare debate, or other cultural wars like equal right amendment) when they are loosing world's stability for nation that is not that opulent, but disciplined and devoted (China). America cannot afford that and world needs her.
Where the real power rests currently in Washington is another topic (Trump or Pence or others). But current administration is setting right track for what to focused at. China
Sanders and Trump economic thinking is too simplified to be taken real, but they both know rampant inequalities, unrestricted free market for corporations (which both Dems and GOP enabled) and lack of public infrastructure investments are problems of America, and adressed and steered towards benefit in China. Trump saw it with Japan, with China.
Lexicus
Deity
As far as I can see that's the only shot we have to get him out of there.
GoodEnoughForMe
n.m.s.s.
Yeah, Trump certainly deserves to not scoot any responsibility on his part. He has massively escalated. But it was under the Obama administration that children at the Shiloh Treatment Center were forcibly injected with antipsychotic drugs at several times the recommended maximum dose to make them compliant. One kid received forced injections and pills of 10 different medications. It was there that years of horrifying treatment (going back to at least 2014) had caused Obama's own party members, like Sheila Jackson Lee, to call for an immediate shutdown. They were ignored.
I don't want to say Obama = Trump, but the idea of essentially sequestering and torturing children was already established playbook. There were lawsuits over it in the system before Trump even took office. And Obama was elected at a time when the Iraq War and economy dominated top issue polling. Immigration in some quarters wasn't even a top 4 or 5 issue. It was like war, economy, health care, then a jumble of abortion, immigration, climate change (loooool damn).
Socrates99
Bottoms up!
Coronavirus hysteria wouldn't do it alone. Itd be the pin that popped an already existing bubble. We have stagnant wages with an ever inflating housing market coupled with about a trillion dollars in student debt. The precursor to recession has already happened with the inverted yield curve. Stock prices were artificially inflated by buybacks without adding any real value. Glass Steagal was never put back in place and the weak sauce Dodd Frank was repealed.
Trump's known about the potential for a while which is why hes been at odds with the Fed reserve over interest rates for months. He wants rates lowered to stave off potential recession until after hes reelected. The rates are already fairly low and bringing them down now would only slow the inevitable while taking away a tool that can be used to spur recovery.
Coronavirus hysteria is likely to be what Trump will blame as a scapegoat. It might actually be his way to absolve himself of any blame for economic woes.
This is precisely my concern (and expectation).
GoodEnoughForMe
n.m.s.s.
Yeah, before coronavirus there was an incredible underestimation by Dems at how good Americans viewed the economy. Around December/January the vast majority of Americans loved the economy, confidence was high, and basically the economy as a whole was polling the best it had since pre 9/11. All the talk about student debt, housing crisis, health care, was, while not falling on unwelcoming ears, background noise to a lot of people who thought we just needed some mild tinkering but that mostly things were hunky-dory (probably also one thing we should have considered would hurt Bernie's chances). But coronavirus at the upper bounds of its potential absolutely changes everything.
The darkly humorous thing is that coronavirus would be a FANTASTIC opportunity for Trump to play up the nativism, close borders, end immigration card, but he's soooo worried about the economy he has to instead go the other way and downplay the virus as a whole and keep stuff open.
The darkly humorous thing is that coronavirus would be a FANTASTIC opportunity for Trump to play up the nativism, close borders, end immigration card, but he's soooo worried about the economy he has to instead go the other way and downplay the virus as a whole and keep stuff open.
Lexicus
Deity
oh no! we're down by 1%, game over man, game over
y'alls hysteria from super tuesday results is way overblown
I disagree. Bernie showed that he could not win over the broad coalition that will be necessary to win the nomination. Barring Biden having a stroke or something, or Bernie somehow making a successful case over the next ten days or so that he's the "safe" choice against Trump (I suppose not impossible given Biden's weaknesses) he can't win the nom.
EnglishEdward
Deity
The question seems not to be who will be the next POTUS, but who will be the next GOTUS (Geriatric of the United States)?,
GoodEnoughForMe
n.m.s.s.
The problem with Bernie is he is now moving into unfavorable map territory. Most of the places he had natural advantages at are over, and he's losing. This upcoming Tuesday has two states he'll probably get trounced in (Missouri and Mississippi), one he'll win (Washington), two nobody cares about (North Dakota and Idaho), and one big one in Michigan that on the one hand, he pulled out a shocker in in 2016, but on the other hand, Biden is leading polls pretty handedly in, while also having a lot of reports lately that the governor is about to endorse Biden.
It really probably does come down to a Biden campaign blunder which is absolutely not out of the realm of possibility. But this quickly becomes a situation where it's like "well we're only 1 game back from the leader!" in sports with 4 games to go. but then you realize just to tie the leader if they go a measly 2-2 you have to go 3-1, or 4-0 to win outright. It sounds a lot easier for Bernie right now than it is.
I'm still going to do my part in Michigan this Saturday door knocking. But it looks bad.
It really probably does come down to a Biden campaign blunder which is absolutely not out of the realm of possibility. But this quickly becomes a situation where it's like "well we're only 1 game back from the leader!" in sports with 4 games to go. but then you realize just to tie the leader if they go a measly 2-2 you have to go 3-1, or 4-0 to win outright. It sounds a lot easier for Bernie right now than it is.
I'm still going to do my part in Michigan this Saturday door knocking. But it looks bad.
It does make me wonder. How different would the Democratic primary results be if we had, say, President Romney or President Kasich (i.e. a relatively moderate Republican) rather than President Trump?
hobbsyoyo
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Drastically different I think. I really believe that Biden's appeals are 1) certainty he can beat Trump and 2) Obama nostalgia. Both of those go out the window without Trump in office. Biden has tried and failed to win the Dem primary a few times I think.
Best of luck dude! I'm rooting for your guy!
amadeus
Apply directly to the forehead
I wonder if Warren will make an endorsement?
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