2020 US Election (Part One)

[Narz]

Oh my! There is that saying from that one religion about the beam in thine own eye...

You disagree?

 

[Lexicus]

You disagree?

I think it's pretty much useless to make blanket characterizations of "Islam".

edit: more generally there are plenty of religious people out there I consider my comrades, and plenty of atheists whom I consider reactionary filth

 

[Lexicus]

Yes, I'm not into sharia law. No that is not racist. Its me stating I disagree with the tenets of sharia law. In total. Sarsour can run her household as she likes, but she has been a troubling figure for the left. I'm surprised you are supporting her.

I apologize, I assumed you were just associating Sharia law with her because she is a politically-active Muslim who wears a headscarf.

 

[Takhisis]

What's your recommendation for walking distance to a polling station?

We do about 35 square miles.

Is that a lot for the district? I don't know the usual size of the typical landholding (farm) or the range and prevalence of vehicles in the area.

 

[Estebonrober]

Is that a lot for the district? I don't know the usual size of the typical landholding (farm) or the range and prevalence of vehicles in the area.

7x5? Seems reasonable.

 

[Berzerker]

Trump is so full of it, he's using what Bolton said about 'the Libya model' long ago to justify parting company. Why didn't they have their falling out back then? And now I'm watching Democrats praising Bolton. What a crapfest.

 

[Old Hippy]

Trump is so full of it, he's using what Bolton said about 'the Libya model' long ago to justify parting company. Why didn't they have their falling out back then? And now I'm watching Democrats praising Bolton. .

been waiting for this since Boltons failed Venezuela Trip... remember his 5000 troops being sent to Columbia's border memo note... Trump was never going to send Troops to Columbia...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...uestions-about-military-role-venezuela-crisis
Bolten kept the Never Trump Republicans Happy (the Swamp)... and now it seems some Dems are upset the warmonger is no longer advising Trump ( more of the Swamp)...

 

[Commodore]

ignoring all the real instances of impropriety surrounding this election

There's nothing to ignore because there wasn't any impropriety either. You're just mad because Dems lost again.

I also don't get why you even care so much about this election. You don't live in North Carolina. Who they elect as their representatives literally has zero effect on you. Worry about cleaning up the mess in your own state before worrying about others.

 

[Zardnaar]

I didn't expect the Dems to win.

There's something like 35 or 38 seats that are in that 10 point range.

Apparently gerrymandering is worth a 7 point advantage. Dems got a 12 point lead down to 2% in a red state the GoP have had since the 60s.

Combine with 2018 midterms, Trump's approval rating that's not a great look for a general election.

 

[Arakhor]

You should always care about gerrymandering. After all, first they came for the socialists...

 

[Estebonrober]

There's nothing to ignore because there wasn't any impropriety either. You're just mad because Dems lost again.

I also don't get why you even care so much about this election. You don't live in North Carolina. Who they elect as their representatives literally has zero effect on you. Worry about cleaning up the mess in your own state before worrying about others.

The states are very aware of what goes on in other states and strategies generally spread like wildfire when found to be successful. So yea.

speaking of the illegitimate governement of North Carolina!

https://www.businessinsider.com/north-carolina-house-republicans-surprise-budget-veto-vote-2019-9

The Republicans overrode Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper's veto of the state budget with a 55-9 vote, while colleagues were absent from the floor during a 9/11 memorial ceremony.

To override the governor's veto, the Republicans needed to secure a three-fifths majority vote among those present. Local news outlets reported that Republicans in the state had been trying for months to override Cooper's veto and seized an opportunity on a morning typically set aside to honor the 2,977 people killed in the 9/11 attacks 18 years ago.

I mean I've seen some bullfeathers in my time, but this is up there. I'd hope that the vote would be considered null considering the nature of the vote, but let's be honest they will probably get their way here.

No shame.

 

[Zkribbler]

And now I'm watching Democrats praising Bolton. What a crapfest.

What? Who? I can't find any.

Nancy Pelosi ✔ @SpeakerPelosi
John Bolton's sudden departure is a symbol of the disarray that has unnerved our allies since day one of the Trump Administration. Steady leadership & strategic foreign policy is key to ensuring America’s national security.

Chris Murphy ✔ @ChrisMurphyCT
I’m legitimately shaken by the grave instability of American foreign policy today.

I’m no Bolton fan, but the world is coming apart, and the revolving door of U.S. leadership is disappearing America from the world just at the moment where a stable American hand is most needed.

Joaquin Castro ✔ @JoaquinCastrotx
The state of American foreign policy is concerning. This revolving door on staff and a lack of stability in this Administration should deeply concern us all.

A reminder that Bolton was our 3rd nat sec advisor.

We need reliable, steady leadership.

Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer, meanwhile, issued the following statement: “Today’s action by the president is just the latest example of his government-by-chaos approach and his rudderless national security policy. When Ambassador Bolton’s extreme views aren’t enough for you, the United States is headed for even more chaotic times.”

 

[Ironsided]

Oh good lord Nancy and crew, what fiends. They are firing off cheap shots at something good to win what? Voters for the dems? What politico-bots they are. Stability, Nancy? Well, if you had not helped push Obama from two wars into seven only to hand the reigns to Trump via a rigged primary? Maybe we would have more stability in the world. With your ilk about – more likely never.

 

[Farm Boy]

Is that a lot for the district? I don't know the usual size of the typical landholding (farm) or the range and prevalence of vehicles in the area.

I was kind of thinking we always get used as the gold standard, don't we? Little rural districts? I could dig more, but every time I get bored enough to wade into county voting data it comes back approximately as actualized into actual voting.

As for the actual question, if you don't have a vehicle, you don't work. If you work, you are probably commuting out of township. So either way, the people voting are usually driving. It's not really an optional expense. I do, generally, ride a bike on voting day. Unless there's other stuff going on, then it's whether or not I get back home-ish before they close. Probably somewhere ~2/3 of the voters as in the referenced 2,500 per polling station.

 

[El_Machinae]

I also don't get why you even care so much about this election. You don't live in North Carolina. Who they elect as their representatives literally has zero effect on you.

I see why you're confused. You might not know this, but American Congresscritters vote for policy that affects people outside of their District.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

Warren has a big new proposal for social security. She's going to expand it so that people who care for children for at least 80 hours a month will be credited by the system as having worked so they can draw on it on retirement. She wants to increase the benefit by $200/mo and expand it so that the working poor will be guaranteed at least 125% of poverty level income when they retire. She is also expanding it for widows and widowers as well.

She's paying for it by increasing taxes on income over $250k for individuals or $400k for families and also taxing investment income in the same bracket for those that get their income from investments rather than work.

 

[Socrates99]

Religiosity is a huge turn-off of course (although Islam is somewhat of a sacred cow in some segments of the left, despite being even more anti-women, anti-gay and generally stone-age than Christianity) but the main thing is carousing with bigots & being generally non-inclusive (supposedly the hallmark of progressivism).

Like Pakman said, including such people in one's campaign has zero-upside and a lot of downside.

It's not really a sacred cow. They're a minority constantly vilified by the right. I think people confuse lefties defending their religious freedom as approval of their fundamentalist beliefs and that's just wrong. A religious fundamentalist is a religious fundamentalist no matter what religion they're from. If Muslims started trying to get religious laws on the books lefties would oppose that too.

 

[Farm Boy]

No, fundamentalists vary but for whatever traits are possessed by the speaker which causes them to define them as such. It's a sentiment that says a lot, but most of it that is interesting, in most situations, flows backwards.

 

[Lexicus]

 

[EgonSpengler]

So I'm only just starting to dig into the Senate races (which some people don't even realize are happening - it's one-third every 2 years, people!). I found some maps that I thought were helpful.

Current state-by-state Senate representation by party. Red means that state is represented by 2 Republicans, blue means 2 Democrats, purple means one of each.

State-by-state seats up for election in 2020. Red means a Republican seat is on the block, blue means a Democratic seat, grey means no Senate seats are up. I believe that, barring something sudden like a death (we can see "AZ Special", for instance), only 1 seat in a given state is up for grabs during one election.

Currently, the Republicans have a small lead. Democrats need to net 3 more seats in 2020 to achieve a 50-50 split (in any 50-50 vote, the Vice President casts the deciding 101st vote).

Maps are courtesy of Rasmussen, and are 10 months old. I'm not sure anything has changed since then, but I haven't looked.

Don't even ask me about the House. I can barely even remember how many people are in that chamber. Is it 435? I think it's 435.