2020 US Election (Part One)

[Sommerswerd]

. All they are doing is racial profiling

I don't think this means what you think it means.

 

[Sommerswerd]

I don't think it's a matter of attracting them, but attracting them enough that they will show up to vote. If they stay home in November, I foresee another Trump Victory.

There's nobody currently viable in the race that is going to inspire above-average black and/or Hispanic turnout... so if that's what the Democrats are banking on, its already over. At this point its all about getting different types of voters like @Farm Boy , @Commodore , and @Berzerker to consider voting for the Democratic nominee... and/or getting different types of voters like @Cloud_Strife, @GoodEnoughForMe, and @Lexicus to commit to voting for the Democrat no matter what.

The only candidate I see doing that at this stage is Sanders. Maybe something changes between now and the election, but that's where we are. Driving up turnout among blacks is not happening. It's DOA. Black voters will vote pretty monolithically against Trump, that's certain, and Hispanic voters probably will as well, but there's nobody in the hunt right now who is going to drive turnout in those demographics. So its all up to white folks

 

[rah]

Because trusting the white man to do the right thing has worked so well throughout history.
But I'll hold my breath while voting for Bernie. But then, I'd vote for my cat if she had a (D) after her name.

 

[Sommerswerd]

That's the spirit.

 

[luiz]

Black voters will vote pretty monolithically against Trump, that's certain, and Hispanic voters probably will as well, but there's nobody in the hunt right now who is going to drive turnout in those demographics. So its all up to white folks

IIRC Trump is actually polling well above 25% with Hispanics. He has about 50% with the Cubans of course, but they are not big enough a group to represent the whole story.

 

[Socrates99]

I think that folks are overestimating the significance of this in a Bernie v. Bootyjudge comparison somewhat. Bernie isn't particularly strong with black voters either, but it doesn't matter because black voters are fiercely loyal to the Democrats, moreso than any other demographic to any party. If Bernie wins the Democratic nomination he will get 85%+ of the black vote. If Bootyjudge wins, he will get 85%+ of the black vote. Same for Warren, same for Biden, same for any Democrat.

The "can't attract people of color" narrative is nearly a red herring, especially as it relates to Bernie and Bootyjudge. I'd be more concerned with Bernie's ability to attract moderates and drive up young voter turnout versus Bootyjudge's ability to get older voters and attract Bernie's faithful.

You're talking general, we're talking primary.

Bernie has a very diverse coalition. That problem with PoC narrative is a holdover from 2016. https://jacobinmag.com/2019/08/bernie-sanders-white-bernie-bro-race-2020-democratic-primary-pew-poll
Stop watching so much MSM.

 

[Sommerswerd]

IIRC Trump is actually polling around 25% with Hispanics. He has about 50% with the Cubans of course, but they are not big enough a group to represent the whole story.

25% is an F on any test I've ever taken. 70% is about where I start calling it "monolithic".

You're talking general, we're talking primary.

Bernie has a very diverse coalition. That problem with PoC narrative is a holdover from 2016. https://jacobinmag.com/2019/08/bernie-sanders-white-bernie-bro-race-2020-democratic-primary-pew-poll

Stop watching so much MSM.

LOLs I'm not "watching MSM" for this narrative, dude, I'm quoting you guys. … and I'm talking about the primary AND the general, cause the candidate needs to win both.​

 

[Samson]

I was looking at the list of contests, and while I have just about figured out the difference between a caucus and a primary, I have heard no-one talking about state convention's. These seem to be how it is decided in North Dakota, Virginia, South Carolina, Arizona and Wyoming. Googling just brings up stuff about changing the constitution. What are these?

 

[luiz]

25% is an F on any test I've ever taken. 70% is about where I start calling it "monolithic".

Oh for sure he will lose the Hispanic vote. But remember in 2016 according to exit polls he got 28% of the Latino vote, which is a higher share than Bob Dole or Mitt Romney got (but well below the 40% that Bush got in 2004 - if a republican can repeat this feat, he is pretty much unbeatable).

It seems that he will get again somewhere between 25% and 30%. Very low for sure, but not by historical Republican standards, and certainly nothing close to the very low percentage he will get from blacks. And if manages to get 30% or above, it will be a very uphill battle for Dems.

 

[Ironsided]

Nonwhite Iowa caucus vote percentages (exit poll):


Sanders: 43%

Buttigieg: 15%

Biden: 13%

Yang: 12%


Edit: that's according to Chuck Rocha, senior advisor to Bernie who also organise a lot of the spanish language campaign. https://twitter.com/chuckrocha

 

[luiz]

Nonwhite Iowa caucus vote percentages (exit poll):


Sanders: 43%

Buttigieg: 15%

Biden: 13%

Yang: 12%

But we have to remember there are like 5 non-white people in Iowa.

 

[rah]

I'm a firm believer that the higher the turnout in those minority categories the lower the support % will be.

 

[Sommerswerd]

Nonwhite Iowa caucus vote percentages (exit poll):
Sanders: 43%
Buttigieg: 15%
Biden: 13%
Yang: 12%

Edit: that's according to Chuck Rocha, senior advisor to Bernie who also organise a lot of the spanish language campaign. https://twitter.com/chuckrocha

Putting aside the negligible minority population of Iowa, which has already been pointed out, that's encouraging for Bernie.

As an aside, that link, at a glance looks like the guys name is "Cockroach" … he must have caught hell in High School

 

[Socrates99]

25% is an F on any test I've ever taken. 70% is about where I start calling it "monolithic".

LOLs I'm not "watching MSM" for this narrative, dude, I'm quoting you guys. … and I'm talking about the primary AND the general, cause the candidate needs to win both.​

That was in response to you saying this.

Bernie isn't particularly strong with black voters either,

I'm not sure where you would've gotten that idea other than from msm.

 

[onejayhawk]

I don't think this means what you think it means.

There is what it means and there is the baggage that attaches. To which are you referring?

25% is an F on any test I've ever taken.

You must not have ever played sports. For a batter in baseball, that's a middle of the curve C.

70% is about where I start calling it "monolithic". LOLs I'm not "watching MSM" for this narrative, dude, I'm quoting you guys. … and I'm talking about the primary AND the general, cause the candidate needs to win both.

The flip side of that is where a monolith starts to crack. There is no escaping that Trump is getting approval from some self described black Democrats.

J

 

[Takhisis]

There is a lot to be said for this. I don't think Buttigieg can sustain a lead and this certainly deflates Biden in a big way. Biden's entire candidacy is based on the idea of electibility and this undermines that.

‘Vote me because people are going to vote for me and I'm gonna win the election’ actually does work well for South American caudillos. But the DNC is supposed to be the civilised one in the two-party race, so they don't get to get away with it.

Anyway, politicians now directly donate money to private businesses

It's called kickbacks, but usually they go to the trouble of funnelling money

Because "expected winner wins" isn't exactly a) headline making, and b) doesn't give media anything to talk about for days at end. However, "rank outsider does well" and "favourite falls at first hurdle" both sell newspapers/attracts viewers and gives 'political experts' something to talk about ad infinitum.

People just don't shut up about Liverpool F.C. these days.

I don't like to burst people's bubble, but screwing up technology doesn't automatically make it a conspiracy by anybody against anybody.

No, but it looks bad, and the lack of stress tests does point out overconfidence, neglect, or worse.

All they are doing is racial profiling

I don't think this means what you think it means.

Now that mansplaining is an accepted neologism, can we coin ‘blacksplainin'’ or similar? I'm being serious here.

 

[Sommerswerd]

That was in response to you saying this. I'm not sure where you would've gotten that idea other than from msm.

Dude I don't even know WTH "msm" is Methylsulfonylmethane? Morehouse School of Medicine?

You must not have ever played sports.

You must not pay much attention to my posts here, because that's one of the most poorly informed things I've ever seen you post... and that's saying a lot.

For a batter in baseball, that's a middle of the curve C.

*sigh* I said "test" not "baseball". Stop strawmanning.

There is what it means and there is the baggage that attaches. To which are you referring?

I have no idea where you're trying to move the goalposts here, or what strawman you're trying to build, nor do I care. Pass.

Now that mansplaining is an accepted neologism, can we coin ‘blacksplainin'’ or similar? I'm being serious here.

You're being serious? OK, so why "nin" rather than "ning"? Does dropping the "g" off the end make it sound more "black" in your mind? If so why? Since we're being serious...

 

[Kyriakos]

Guys, it is beyond ridiculous that 1,5 days after the vote you still only have released 71% of the vote. Furthermore, what is this, first 62% then half a day later 9% more?
Bernie wins both first and second round popular votes, and is within 1 point of the delegates and you release partial results? Looks really bad.

Btw, in case some are wondering how a candidate can be winning first and second round actual votes in Iowa, and still be -1 in delegates to the other, it is similar to how some states have added delegates in the general election (leading to people winning the popular vote but losing the presidency).

 

[GoodEnoughForMe]

The one hilarious thing to come of it is that nobody wants to talk about how good Pete did because everyone wants to talk about how messy it was. No McKinsey model could have predicted that.

 

[Sommerswerd]

The one hilarious thing to come of it is that nobody wants to talk about how good Pete did because everyone wants to talk about how messy it was. No McKinsey model could have predicted that.

How good Bootyjudge did was all they wanted to talk about last night. They seem to be over it today though.