At the convention new alliances will be formed depending upon who gets it. With luck all the Dems will rally around the winner.
2020 US Election (Part One)
- Thread starter Lexicus
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Timsup2nothin
Deity
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Mike Pence can call someone a pomegranate, it won't make them burst out in seeds. Politicians call each other all kinds of stuff. People automatically disbelieve it. The ball buster is when they roll the ads with Bernie Sanders calling Bernie Sanders a socialist. It's a little harder to tell yourself "oh he's lying" at that point.
Zardnaar
Deity
Circular firing squad!!!!!!
caketastydelish
Deity
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The DNC is doing everything they possibly can to prevent Bernie from winning (second time in a row). If this happen, Biden will almost certainly lose to Trump, and he/they would deserve it to.
Zkribbler
Deity
After the Clinton nomination, and these charges came up, I asked over and over what the DNC had done to favor Hillary, and could never get an answer.
Shall we try this again?
What is the DNC doing to prevent Bernie from winning?
caketastydelish
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Are you actually serious? 
Berzerker
Deity
Berzerker
Deity
Bloomberg: Russia is helping Bernie
Bloomberg: I bought Congress for Nancy
Bloomberg: I bought Congress for Nancy
Amy and Pete exiting and endorsing Biden has increased Bidens chance like a lot. Whether that makes Biden have higher odds than Bernie though is debatable. Most of the data was collected with all candidates not exiting race. How vote share of Amy,Pete distribute when they exit and endorse Biden has not much data. Lot of assumptions were made , which have higher chance to be wrong.
I mean just look at the wild fluctuations their model has had several times throughout the primary. This is 2016 all over again, when hours before the announce that Trump won they were giving Hillary something like a 99.9% chance of winning the EC.
Their model just isn't that good.
Zardnaar
Deity
Most people here are jumping the gun. See how super Tuesday plays out. Tuesday night here so results will be coming in soon?
amadeus
Bishop of Bio-Dome
Plurality of votes or delegates? Right now Biden does have a plurality of votes and he’s behind by 4 estimated pledged delegates (60-56) according to Wikipedia.
I think their model is pretty good when they have data. About trump or trump like candidates there was no historical data . Their models were as good as the data they have . Garbage in garbage out .
In 2016 elections they gave a 25% chance to trump before election day I think. They are also aware of their data problem and were trying to cover their bases. They could have been a bit more open and say their models are low confidence models/high confidence based on the quality of data. But admitting that might not make business sense. So instead they will have articles after the results telling where the polls went wrong for everyone including 538.
538 did not have Clinton at 99%. It was 75%, which was fine considering the polls slightly overestimated her in a few swing states.
For the primary they stated at the beginning that they had never done a primary model and that it was likely to have flaws. They even published an article a few weeks ago detailing how they had corrected a mistake about their district-to-district delegate count. It's not perfect, but the recent change in their model's prediction means that it thinks Biden's excellent results with the black community in SC means he'll get a large chunk of the black vote in other states. I'm not so sure of that but the model may not take into account the fact that Biden hasn't campaigned outside of the first 4 states for months, including in super tuesday states.
amadeus
Bishop of Bio-Dome
The problem is people have a really crappy understanding of statistics.
People saw Trump had a “1% chance” of winning and thought every statistical sampling method was wrong.
Maybe it was!
But let’s look at something else: expressed as a percentage, what are the odds of winning the lottery? 0.0000001%? Less? Therefore, I should conclude that no one will ever win the lottery because the statistics are against them.
538’s models could have been stellar, but we have no way to test it until we build time machines that send us to alternate universes.
I don't think saying the model is faulty because there are wild swings is accurate. There are wild swings because there are big and sudden news events. It makes sense for the forecast to dramatically change when two major candidates simultaneously drop out and endorse another. Likewise, it made sense for the forecast to dramatically change when Biden bombed in Iowa.
And yeah, 538 was easily the best model in 2016, because they actually were making super clear that Trump would win 1 in 4 times. In the days leading up to the election they were shouting it from the rooftops and being widely criticised and ridiculed by much of the media who thought a Clinton win was a lock. Then when the Trump won, the media suddenly thought the problem was with the accuracy of polls, and not the accuracy of their own interpretations.
And yeah, 538 was easily the best model in 2016, because they actually were making super clear that Trump would win 1 in 4 times. In the days leading up to the election they were shouting it from the rooftops and being widely criticised and ridiculed by much of the media who thought a Clinton win was a lock. Then when the Trump won, the media suddenly thought the problem was with the accuracy of polls, and not the accuracy of their own interpretations.
Ironsided
Flower of happiness
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Unfortunately, thing got interesting again. SC result was a terrible blow to the chance of getting rid of Trump. I have no idea how this Clyburn endorsement could have such effect and more importantly why he basically sold out his own community for old loyalties? I’d say Trump is a huge favourite to win the general now. Bernie was and still is the only one who can realistically beat Trump in a general election. Now the useless party is doing everything they can to prop up Biden in a last-ditch effort to throw the general election. Klob, Butty and they even dug up O’Rourke to endorse him in Texas.
Look at the Trump crowds and rallies and look at his theatrics – the only one he has nothing on is Bernie. All he has is his “Crazy Bernie” number which is by far his weakest because it lacks all factual substance. Bernie can and will treat Trump like his disobedient teenage son. “I hear your mewling; we all do, but Americans need healthcare and good education more than tax-cuts for the already wealthy” Bernie can beat Trump with a populist message that is better than his own.
Biden is owning himself on a weekly basis, all Trump must do is nod in his general direction and roll his eyes and win by 10%. Bloomberg has so much dirt in his pockets and is absolute devoid of charisma he is all but dead on arrival, on top Trumps mini-mike spiel is genuinely funny. Warren could still help us against Trump but has chosen not to instead she, just like in -16, went to bed with Hillary (disturbing image, I know, sorry). She is not endorsing Bernie, she is fighting him by staying in the race and by directing her “attacks” at him, funny enough the exact same debunked arguments Hillary gave on fudging Howard Stern months ago.
Today we get the best indication if Bernie gets the momentum back or if we can all look forward to four more years of Trump setting new lows in world-wide political standards. By no means do I think Bernie would easily win the general election, but he is the only one with a realistic shot at it.
Look at the Trump crowds and rallies and look at his theatrics – the only one he has nothing on is Bernie. All he has is his “Crazy Bernie” number which is by far his weakest because it lacks all factual substance. Bernie can and will treat Trump like his disobedient teenage son. “I hear your mewling; we all do, but Americans need healthcare and good education more than tax-cuts for the already wealthy” Bernie can beat Trump with a populist message that is better than his own.
Biden is owning himself on a weekly basis, all Trump must do is nod in his general direction and roll his eyes and win by 10%. Bloomberg has so much dirt in his pockets and is absolute devoid of charisma he is all but dead on arrival, on top Trumps mini-mike spiel is genuinely funny. Warren could still help us against Trump but has chosen not to instead she, just like in -16, went to bed with Hillary (disturbing image, I know, sorry). She is not endorsing Bernie, she is fighting him by staying in the race and by directing her “attacks” at him, funny enough the exact same debunked arguments Hillary gave on fudging Howard Stern months ago.
Today we get the best indication if Bernie gets the momentum back or if we can all look forward to four more years of Trump setting new lows in world-wide political standards. By no means do I think Bernie would easily win the general election, but he is the only one with a realistic shot at it.
Zardnaar
Deity
Logically if Bernie can't win a Democrat primary which is about the friendliest crowd he can find he won't do any better in the general.
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