2020 US Election (Part One)

[Kyriakos]

If the millennials are too self centered and ignorant about the consequences of their not voting, you are probably right. If Bernie is not nominated, he should be the first to get out and campaign for the nominee. If he doesn't do that at the convention, then he is useless fraud. That applies to Biden and Bloomberg too.

People wanting some change, instead of being burdened by very high tuition fees and private health-care, are not self-centered; it is insane to expect them to just vote for someone who will do nothing to help them.
Anyway, I am pretty sure that the main issue some (mostly the media front, who are millionaires anyway) have with Bernie is that their taxes would go up. It is hard to share one's hard-earned hundreds of millions.

Furthermore, it is a bit ridiculous for you to say that Bernie is a fraud. Remember he gave tens of speeches for loser Hillary. The good that did you, when you chose that stupid trash candidate Funnier still is that even Hellary might have won the election, if she had Bernie as VP. But again, the DNC has its priorities, so will keep losing unless it changes its tune.

 

[Birdjaguar]

People wanting some change, instead of being burdened by very high tuition fees and private health-care, are not self-centered; it is insane to expect them to just vote for someone who will do nothing to help them.
Anyway, I am pretty sure that the main issue some (mostly the media front, who are millionaires anyway) have with Bernie is that their taxes would go up. It is hard to share one's hard-earned hundreds of millions.

Furthermore, it is a bit ridiculous for you to say that Bernie is a fraud. Remember he gave tens of speeches for loser Hillary. The good that did you, when you chose that stupid trash candidate

Read my post. I said if he doesn't come out to support whoever is nominated then he is. And I would apply he same standard to Biden and Bloomberg. People like to pretend they can predict the future with precision. They cannot. Bernie, Bloomberg and Biden all know that as president they will have this last chance to be notable. When one's legacy is on the line, they will act to make it a good one. They all will make compromises. None of them are the narcissist that Trump is. They all will make good faith efforts to do well. What is not in the best interets of those burdened by college costs and expensive Health care is to re-elect Trump. We know that. Not voting re-elects Trump. that is what is insane.

@IglooDude I don't know what he did in 2016. K says he helped HRC; that's good. I hope he repeats that if he is not the nominee.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Why do we even assume Biden = down ticket success? Democrats just got completely and utterly leveled downballot during Obama. They've never recovered really.

We don't. The actual assumption in play is that Sanders=down ballot success for the GOP. GOP candidates all down the line are being prepped to run on "of course I support Trump but we also have to consider the possibility that he doesn't win...you need me in Washington to keep the wild spending Democrats from destroying the economy and taxing you to death." Sanders the socialist plays right into that strategy, which is why the GOP brain trust (and yes the irony there is not lost on me) is hoping that Sanders is the nominee.

The GOP knows that the Trumpists will turn out and vote for Trump, and then flow GOP down ballot. Their concern is that the people who aren't core but generally vote GOP are irrevocably lost by Trump, so the focus is on making them into split ballots who will vote against Trump but still flow GOP down the rest of the ballot. Those people are reliable to turn out, no matter how alienated they get, and they are the crucial votes in the down ballot races. If the Democrats can use Trump as the lever to continue prying them away from the GOP generally then the election can be as much of a blowout win as 2018 was.

 

[Berzerker]

Bernie campaigned for Hillary in 2016 far more than she did for Obama in 2008

Chris Matthews got fired by MSNBC, apparently not just because of his on air antics but because of conduct off camera too.

He was on the air since 1994...wow

Sad to see you go Chris, I watched many an episode of Hardball

 

[Estebonrober]

Actually... I do want progress on health care reform, climate change cooperation, and some other stuff. But unfortunately both parties try harder to be more statist and entrenched than they do to move forward with policies that I prefer. Remember when you could count on Republicans to be fiscal conservatives? Remember how Democrats used to be hardcore defenders of civil rights? I'll take either of those over either party today.

The only thing the GOP stands for anymore is enriching their donor class (which is tiny in proportion) and dismantling the administrative state as a matter of course. Everything they do can be seen as anti-democratic and reactionary to the extreme at this point. They are slow walking the nation into real conflict. The irony is it will be the fight inside (as witnessed by the heated discussions among democrat leaning people here in this thread) democratic party that explodes first as the progressive side finally forces the DNC to stop capitulating to republican madmen set at ruining everything good and decent in the world. From civil rights to drinking water republicans are trying to take us back to 1890.

In a nutshell, Oregon Republicans are exploiting an arcane constitutional provision in order to exert veto power over legislation developed by the Democratic majority, on behalf of an almost entirely white, rural minority. Five times in the past 10 months, they have simply refused to show up for work, preventing the legislature from passing bills on guns, forestry, health care, and budgeting. The fifth walkout, over a climate change bill, is ongoing.

https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2020/2/29/21157246/oregon-republicans-walk-out-climate-change-cap-trade-democracy

 

[Takhisis]

Attaching "democratic" on the front of it may have been an attempt at rebranding. If so it is the lamest thing ever. You can't sell turds by making turd sandwiches, you have to establish that you are making special dietary supplements and leave out the word turd altogether, first of all. Second "democratic" is always getting hung on things that distinctly are not, like the DPRK, so it is automatically less credible. If I were trying to sell socialism I would call it "equity economics" and pitch like crazy.

Social democracy and democratic socialism aren't quite the same as socialism, but then they are all labels that can be misrepresented and/or used to misrepresent something else.
Also, as for epithets getting hung on things that distinctly are not ‘united’ is an interesting case. Just a last-minute thought.

If the millennials are too self centered and ignorant about the consequences of their not voting, you are probably right. If Bernie is not nominated, he should be the first to get out and campaign for the nominee. If he doesn't do that at the convention, then he is useless fraud. That applies to Biden and Bloomberg too.

In the case of both Sanders and Bloomberg it might earn them an accusation of entryism.

 

[Birdjaguar]

@Takhisis What is entryism?

 

[Takhisis]

If you go to Wiktionary you'll get this:

A political tactic by which an organisation or state encourages its members or agents to infiltrate another organisation in an attempt to gain recruits or to encourage an unelectable candidate​

but Wikipedia's is better:

Entryism (also referred to as entrism or enterism, or as infiltration) is a political strategy in which an organisation or state encourages its members or supporters to join another, usually larger, organisation in an attempt to expand influence and expand their ideas and program. In situations where the organization being 'entered' is hostile to entrism, the entrists may engage in a degree of subterfuge and subversion to hide the fact that they are an organisation in their own right.​

So it can mean takeover and/or sabotage.

 

[Birdjaguar]

I think Amy is looking to be VP, but Warren would serve Biden better in the election.

 

[Takhisis]

But would Warren work with Biden over Sanders if it came to that?

 

[Ajidica]

I'm seriously wondering what carrot and stick the Democratic used on The Klob right before the Minnesota Primary where she was the far-away leader. I think the polling had her winning an outright majority. Buttigieg didn't have any good states on Super Tuesday and could only serve as spoiler, but The Klob had her home state. This abrupt exit really feels like she lost some dignity with it. Although The Klob may play nicely with the Democratic establishment, a lot of Minnesota voters like her, not the Democratic establishment. I have to wonder if the Democratic establishment thought through the effects of the Klob dropping out as it feels like her support will get split Biden/Warren. Given Biden was a distant 4th in Minnesota, I wonder if this might push Warren into serious contention in Minnesota.

Anecdote: My dad was planning on voting for The Klob, but with her and Buttigieg out, along with a dislike of Sanders and flat refusal to vote for Bloomberg; it comes down to Warren or Biden and with Biden doing his best Incoherent Grandpa act, he will likely go Warren.

@Birdjaguar The Klob was always running for VP. I don't see Warren being a good match for Biden as VP as they are running very different themes in their campaigns. I don't think she would be a great VP for anyone -they will want someone young and a minority, possibly female- but will likely get a nice Cabinet position. Treasury or AG anyone?

 

[Zardnaar]

But would Warren work with Biden over Sanders if it came to that?

She could prob ably go either way.

Policy wise she probably the best somewhere in the middle from Biden/Sanders.

But she's probably not gonna win and us in terminal decline.

I'm seriously wondering what carrot and stick the Democratic used on The Klob right before the Minnesota Primary where she was the far-away leader. I think the polling had her winning an outright majority. Buttigieg didn't have any good states on Super Tuesday and could only serve as spoiler, but The Klob had her home state. This abrupt exit really feels like she lost some dignity with it. Although The Klob may play nicely with the Democratic establishment, a lot of Minnesota voters like her, not the Democratic establishment. I have to wonder if the Democratic establishment thought through the effects of the Klob dropping out as it feels like her support will get split Biden/Warren. Given Biden was a distant 4th in Minnesota, I wonder if this might push Warren into serious contention in Minnesota.

Anecdote: My dad was planning on voting for The Klob, but with her and Buttigieg out, along with a dislike of Sanders and flat refusal to vote for Bloomberg; it comes down to Warren or Biden and with Biden doing his best Incoherent Grandpa act, he will likely go Warren.

In that scenario Warren looks good.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

But would Warren work with Biden over Sanders if it came to that?

She would if it were the only offer she got. And it might very well be. She and Sanders might share a lot of positions, and supporters, but there doesn't seem to be a ton of mutual respect in there. Besides, Sanders would need to broaden his appeal, not focus it.

 

[Birdjaguar]

But would Warren work with Biden over Sanders if it came to that?

She should. She will bring more Millennials to his camp.

 

[Birdjaguar]

She would if it were the only offer she got. And it might very well be. She and Sanders might share a lot of positions, and supporters, but there doesn't seem to be a ton of mutual respect in there. Besides, Sanders would need to broaden his appeal, not focus it.

Sanders could use Amy as his VP to bring in the middle.

I would not be surprised if either Joe or Bernie could not get through a first term and probably not a second,

 

[GoodEnoughForMe]

We don't. The actual assumption in play is that Sanders=down ballot success for the GOP. GOP candidates all down the line are being prepped to run on "of course I support Trump but we also have to consider the possibility that he doesn't win...you need me in Washington to keep the wild spending Democrats from destroying the economy and taxing you to death." Sanders the socialist plays right into that strategy, which is why the GOP brain trust (and yes the irony there is not lost on me) is hoping that Sanders is the nominee.

The GOP knows that the Trumpists will turn out and vote for Trump, and then flow GOP down ballot. Their concern is that the people who aren't core but generally vote GOP are irrevocably lost by Trump, so the focus is on making them into split ballots who will vote against Trump but still flow GOP down the rest of the ballot. Those people are reliable to turn out, no matter how alienated they get, and they are the crucial votes in the down ballot races. If the Democrats can use Trump as the lever to continue prying them away from the GOP generally then the election can be as much of a blowout win as 2018 was.

Again, Mike pence has already called Biden a socialist, tax and spend Democrat repeatedly. It literally doesn't matter who wins in terms of socialist labelling. Every Dem is being labelled a socialist. Beshear, Bloomberg, Hillary, Biden, Bernie, Obama, Etc. Bernie has found a way to overperform the partisan lean of his state repeatedly with the label, whether mayor or senator, so you could make the argument he most knows how to win when that criticism comes.

Plus either way, he's popular: https://www.vox.com/2020/1/31/21113780/bernie-sanders-socialism-electability-primaries

 

[Imaus]

Again, Mike pence has already called Biden a socialist, tax and spend Democrat repeatedly. It literally doesn't matter who wins in terms of socialist labelling. Every Dem is being labelled a socialist. Beshear, Bloomberg, Hillary, Biden, Bernie, Obama, Etc. Bernie has found a way to overperform the partisan lean of his state repeatedly with the label, whether mayor or senator, so you could make the argument he most knows how to win when that criticism comes.

Plus either way, he's popular: https://www.vox.com/2020/1/31/21113780/bernie-sanders-socialism-electability-primaries

That's one side of it: it's such an over-used, bloated, mislabeled term that it doesn't mean anything other than 'this person is to the left of me politically'. Before, in the 50s at least, you had the Pinko-Red labels, but still, 'Pinko' meant that it was a gateway to being 'red' anyway so they just cut the middleman.

And the Post-Cold War generation just doesn't care. Socialism this, Socialism that, here's a politician who's been Socialist for fifty+ years and he's still kicking. While I bemoan this labeling, it's winning popularity with younger left-leaning voters. Of course, it does incur a reaction....

The Republicans and their ilk call everything Socialist or fear Socialism will come from any Democrat/Leftist politician, and so on a base level people just go 'hell with it'.

 

[amadeus]

I'm seriously wondering what carrot and stick the Democratic used on The Klob right before the Minnesota Primary where she was the far-away leader.

On the other hand, what is the incentive for her to stick around only to win her home state?

 

[Takhisis]

Sanders could use Amy as his VP to bring in the middle.

Cannot be. Klobuchar has decided to back Biden:

In a Dramatic Turn, Buttigieg and Klobuchar Endorse Biden

• Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar quit the presidential race to throw their support behind Joe Biden on the eve of Super Tuesday.
• It’s a last-minute bid to unite the Democrats’ moderate wing and boost Mr. Biden to take on the liberal front-runner, Bernie Sanders.

Also:

6m ago: Bloomberg says he called Buttigieg after the former mayor dropped out. (updated live)​

and

How the Democratic Establishment Stumbled as Sanders Surged
Plans to rally Democrats behind a single contender who could stop the ascent of Mr. Sanders were abandoned or ineffective. Now, moderates are scrambling.​

 

[hobbsyoyo]

Fivethirtyeight is forecasting a 2/3rds chance that no one will take a majority. Their forecasting Biden and Sanders finishing neck and neck, with the balance barely favoring Biden.