2020 US Election (Part One)

[amadeus]

Unfortunately, thing got interesting again. SC result was a terrible blow to the chance of getting rid of Trump. I have no idea how this Clyburn endorsement could have such effect and more importantly why he basically sold out his own community for old loyalties?

Care to elaborate?

... and they even dug up O’Rourke to endorse him in Texas.

If Bobby O. still munching on his magical dirt? Did he give his endorsement in fake Spanish? It would match his public persona.

Look at the Trump crowds and rallies and look at his theatrics – the only one he has nothing on is Bernie. All he has is his “Crazy Bernie” number which is by far his weakest because it lacks all factual substance.

Why would Trump use his ‘A’ material when the nomination hasn’t been secured yet? Rookie mistake!

 

[Ironsided]

What could possibly be his 'A' material? Please do tell us.

 

[amadeus]

I could only speculate, but I won’t.

Rookie mistake #2, giving your opponents free info!

 

[Zardnaar]

But he is the one winning, and in the lead, and he is the one most likely to win the most today aswell. But to have have a better shot in the general he needs less rigging of the game from his own party.

He is but he needs a good performance and a clear lead.

A brokered convention is roughly the same as coalitions in proportional systems. If Bernie or anyone else can't hit 50% well you might lose.

We had a government form here with 37% vs 46% winning due to coalitions.

Also funny since a lot if progressives want proportional representation.

If Bernie can't get more votes than Biden plus the others he doesn't have a clear mandate.

If he sweeps the delegates he does. Looks like a two horse race now so makes it a lot easier to hit 51%.

If I was the DNC superdelegate and Bernie has a clear lead I would vote for him. The DNC can still block his more stupid ideas.

If he loses the DNC is right.

Sanders as president he can't just force through whatever he likes and 10% or so of the Democrats saying erm no sinks anything he wants to do.

He either has to compromise or be Trump 2.0 and pass virtually no legislation.

If the super delegates hand him the nomination he can't exactly claim he has a clear mandate either.

They can use him to pass supreme Court sign offs assuming they control the Senate.

He needs a clear Victory to get enough political capital to browbeat the Democrats into passing a lot of his ideas. I think he can deliver on healthcare, everything else not so much.

If 40% if the Dems and all of the GoP say no and can back it up with voting numbers 30% of the voters (and 20% of the country) don't really have a mandate to do whatever.

 

[luiz]

538 did not have Clinton at 99%. It was 75%, which was fine considering the polls slightly overestimated her in a few swing states.

For the primary they stated at the beginning that they had never done a primary model and that it was likely to have flaws. They even published an article a few weeks ago detailing how they had corrected a mistake about their district-to-district delegate count. It's not perfect, but the recent change in their model's prediction means that it thinks Biden's excellent results with the black community in SC means he'll get a large chunk of the black vote in other states. I'm not so sure of that but the model may not take into account the fact that Biden hasn't campaigned outside of the first 4 states for months, including in super tuesday states.

I don't think saying the model is faulty because there are wild swings is accurate. There are wild swings because there are big and sudden news events. It makes sense for the forecast to dramatically change when two major candidates simultaneously drop out and endorse another. Likewise, it made sense for the forecast to dramatically change when Biden bombed in Iowa.

And yeah, 538 was easily the best model in 2016, because they actually were making super clear that Trump would win 1 in 4 times. In the days leading up to the election they were shouting it from the rooftops and being widely criticised and ridiculed by much of the media who thought a Clinton win was a lock. Then when the Trump won, the media suddenly thought the problem was with the accuracy of polls, and not the accuracy of their own interpretations.

Fair enough that they gave Trump a decent chance - my memory was faulty there.

Still, I don't trust a model that changes its predictions completely just based on a not so unpredictable event such such as Biden doing poorly in the first few primaries, just to reverse it all over again after SC. Maybe it is the best model around, but it's still pretty worthless. And I certainly would not interpret their odds as actual odds.

 

[Zardnaar]

The only thing I predict is Bernie has the most momentum but you can't write Biden off.

Elizabeth is DoA.

 

[Camikaze]

Fair enough that they gave Trump a decent chance - my memory was faulty there.

Still, I don't trust a model that changes its predictions completely just based on a not so unpredictable event such such as Biden doing poorly in the first few primaries, just to reverse it all over again after SC. Maybe it is the best model around, but it's still pretty worthless. And I certainly would not interpret their odds as actual odds.

I think I agree that the model is probably not a perfect forecasting machine (and I think 538 have acknowledged this, particularly given this primary season has lacked good precedent). But the model wasn't just reacting to a predictable loss and a predictable win. It was reacting to an underperformance compared with expectation in Iowa, and an overperformance compared with expectation in South Carolina. Before Iowa, Biden was in the lead nationally. When he lost, he dropped very rapidly in the forecast, following which he dropped in the polls as well. The model appeared to predict that drop. Then when he overperformed in South Carolina, the model appears to be predicting a subsequent rise in national polls. It's not like the national polls have been stagnant, with the state results just reflecting a constant level of polling mediated through a particular demographic lens.

 

[Estebonrober]

Well today will tell us a lot. The problem with the DNC running over the Bernie campaign is that the inequality in the US is so bad now that the next economic collapse has the real potential for conflict. Both political parties who are in the pockets of corporate overlords seem oblivious of the firewall they are walking into, but I may be wrong. Americans may be passive dogs who accept their positions in the hierarchy. It certainly seems the case in rural white america.

 

[Zardnaar]

Well today will tell us a lot. The problem with the DNC running over the Bernie campaign is that the inequality in the US is so bad now that the next economic collapse has the real potential for conflict. Both political parties who are in the pockets of corporate overlords seem oblivious of the firewall they are walking into, but I may be wrong. Americans may be passive dogs who accept their positions in the hierarchy. It certainly seems the case in rural white america.

Same problem worldwide. There's no easy fix, people who say otherwise are full of crap.

 

[Estebonrober]

Same problem worldwide. There's no easy fix, people who say otherwise are full of crap.

The water is simmering for sure and it looks a lot like the 20s in the last century with some key differences of course. /stares off at the nuclear warheads covering the planet

 

[Zardnaar]

The water is simmering for sure and it looks a lot like the 20s in the last century with some key differences of course. /stares off at the nuclear warheads covering the planet

As I said put NZ or maybe Canada in charge of the world.

 

[Estebonrober]

As I said put NZ or maybe Canada in charge of the world.

Lol judging by your posts my friend I will have to lean towards Canada.

 

[Zardnaar]

Lol judging by your posts my friend I will have to lean towards Canada.

Oh don't get me wrong. I'm very blunt. I get called fascist because I oppose immigration, it's not because "they're coming to take our jobs" but because if the social problems it's causing.

Immigration wasnt a problem in the 90s we had the housing capacity. It is now though.

Culturally NZ has a s"be right"a idk if Canada has that. Basically means things are very casual and laid back. We don't really get the political extremes of Europe, Aussie, USA and maybe Canada.

You don't get the casual racism alot of Aussies have and some Americanisns either.

 

[Berzerker]

MSNBC claims Obama has made his preference for Biden known but hasn't endorsed him. Huh? MSNBC's Joe Scarborough is blaming Bloomberg if Sanders wins the nomination. MSNBC decries the 'cancel culture' that brought Chris Matthews down. I cant believe I spent years watching MSNBC.

Trump says the Democrat establishment is out to screw Bernie... MSNBC says thats absurd, there's no evidence for a plot to beat Sanders. That comes the day after people drop from the race right before super Tuesday to help Biden. Warren will stay in the race to dilute Sanders' support, Bloomy will drop tomorrow.

 

[Cloud_Strife]

What could possibly be his 'A' material? Please do tell us.

Presumably barely-concealed anti-semitism.

 

[GoodEnoughForMe]

It was always going to be Biden, wasn't it? This country has expressed a clear desire for racism and creepy handling of young girls.

 

[Lexicus]

We don't. The actual assumption in play is that Sanders=down ballot success for the GOP.

Sanders' actual colleagues seem less worried about this than you:
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/24/senate-bernie-sanders-2020-117266

 

[Sommerswerd]

I cant believe I spent years watching MSNBC.

Sounds to me like you are still watching it... a lot. Cause I listen/watch them sometimes and I haven't seen/heard any of this stuff you're claiming. Everytime I'm on MSNBC they have someone on who is touting Bernie and condemning the "moderates" for not supporting him.

MSNBC claims Obama has made his preference for Biden known but hasn't endorsed him.

Biden is his VP. Obama has very little choice... he would seem like a turncoat of the highest order if he did otherwise. The fact that he hasn't outright endorsed already, when Biden clearly could really use it, shows a tremendous amount of deference to Sanders and his supporters. Obama is clearly trying to give Sanders a shot, without outright betraying Biden. I'm not sure most Sanders supporters will appreciate that, or give Obama any credit.

MSNBC's Joe Scarborough is blaming Bloomberg if Sanders wins the nomination.

Bloomberg deserves blame if Bernie wins, but Bernie supporters should be all about Bloomberg right now. Bloomberg staying in is Sanders last best chance to get a comfortable lead on Biden in delegates.

MSNBC decries the 'cancel culture' that brought Chris Matthews down.

Live by the sword, die by the sword.

Trump says the Democrat establishment is out to screw Bernie

The bolded is, in-and-of-itself, extremely strong evidence that the statement is false.

Warren will stay in the race to dilute Sanders' support, Bloomy will drop tomorrow.

As I mentioned before, Warren was waiting for Klobuchar to drop out in order to absorb the "want to elect a woman" vote. She is thinking that with Klobuchar gone, this is her moment to turn things around. Even moreso with Bootyjudge gone, she also picks up the "want a non-cis-white-male" vote. Warren's game is to become the more acceptable progressive alternative, which she couldn't do with Klobuchar still in. She's not dropping out unless she gets wiped out today.

Bloomberg is too bored and too rich to be forced out. TBH I wouldn't put it past him to break his word and run third party "for the good of the country". The only thing that will force him out is complete humiliation today... as in zero delegates, or something very close to it.​

 

[Birdjaguar]

Pence to be dumped!

CNN political analyst Paul Begala this week “guaranteed” that President Donald Trump is going to dump Vice President Mike Pence.

“This is not a prediction, it’s a certainty,” Begala said at the American Israel Public Affairs Committee conference in Washington.

He even named an exact date: Thursday, July 16.

“That’s the date the Democrat gives her or his acceptance address,” Begala said on Monday. “On that day, to interrupt that narrative, Donald Trump will call a press conference at Mar-a-Lago.”

And that’s when Pence will be toast.

“He’s going to dump Mike Pence and put Nikki Haley on the ticket to try to get those suburban moms,” Begala said. “You watch. Guaranteed.”


Trump has already laid the groundwork for dismissing Pence.

“Trump put Pence in charge of coronavirus to throw him under the bus,” Begala said.

Mar-a-Lago, it should be noted, closes in the summer so any press conference would likely be held elsewhere.

 

[amadeus]

Paul Begala and his gargantuan forehead couldn’t predict gas after a dinner at Taco Bell.

The bolded is, in-and-of-itself, extremely strong evidence that the statement is false.

It may or may not be false, but that is wholly irrelevant to Trump’s objective in fragmenting the Democratic Party.