Brexit Thread V - The Final Countdown?!?

[really]

The right to work does not predate the GFA by a lot. It was a very contentious issue for a long time. It still may be for citizens of the RoI.
That right is implicitly guaranteed in the (rather short) text of the GFA as both governments "recognise the birthright of all the people of Northern Ireland to identify themselves and be accepted as Irish or British, or both, as they may so choose, and accordingly confirm that their right to hold both British and Irish citizenship is accepted by both Governments and would not be affected by any future change in the status of Northern Ireland."
As NI natural can hold both nationalities they can avoid any legal barriers to employment and are not subject to restrictions. This however does not avoid problems such as delays on border crossings that do place practical difficulties to people working across the border. But prior agreements that are not threatened (at least by the UK) also keep that freedom of movement in place.

The UK leaving the EU by itself in no way undermines the provisions of the GFA.

As for alleged WTO rules, that is false. It it were true then countries such as Canada or Japan (or indeed the EU) could not do "trade deals" either, favoring certain countries over others. Controls can be "eased if a deal is done, and a deal for these issues can very easily be signed. It hasn't already because the EU wants to extract far more from the UK.

As for the UK keeping troops in a territory that is an integral part of the UK, I don't see how that is a problem. But then again I'm big on states being sovereign on their own territory. The RoI has already relinquished its stupid claim over the territory hasn't it?

Irish rights in the UK were admittedly woolly but our basic position was set out in the Ireland Act of 1949 which said we weren't foreign.
'(1)It is hereby declared that, notwithstanding that the Republic of Ireland is not part of His Majesty's dominions, the Republic of Ireland is not a foreign country for the purposes of any law in force in any part of the United Kingdom or in any colony, protectorate or United Kingdom trust territory, whether by virtue of a rule of law or of an Act of Parliament or any other enactment or instrument whatsoever, whether passed or made before or after the passing of this Act, and references in any Act of Parliament, other enactment or instrument whatsoever, whether passed or made before or after the passing of this Act, to foreigners, aliens, foreign countries, and foreign or foreign-built ships or aircraft shall be construed accordingly'
Troops in the north isn't a problem but the GFA committed to normalisation so sending troops back to protect border posts would be a problem.
Yes we gave up our territorial claim on the north as part of this. 94% yes in the referendum.

 

[innonimatu]

The Nationalists feel very strongly that they are Irish, to the exclusion of being British. The Unionists feel very strongly that they are British, to the exclusion of being Irish. (At least, not without strong qualification.) Declaring that both communities can simply enjoy the benefits of dual-citizenship seems to suggest, not simply that you're unsure why people might feel strongly enough about this that it should lead to armed conflict, but that you don't quite grasp that they do.

So they would refuse to ask for citizenship from the "other side". Thanks, I understand now what you meant.

 

[Takhisis]

It's not just that, innonimatu. It's gotten to the point that if you are on one political side there's certain football clubs which you cannot support because if you do you'll get chibbed. There's streets in which you cannot live, shops you cannot enter, and so on.

And as i keep posting, it is very strange how you go on about ‘imperialism’ elsewhere and then here you post, without any caveats, that Northern Ireland is ‘sovereign British territory’ just like that.

 

[mitsho]

The best way to heal these divisions is time (and maybe TV shows that make us laugh about it like that one on Netflix), and that is what is so mind-numbing about that Brexit, that it brings back up all those discussions about Nothern Ireland that were (at least in my continental European impression) fading away slowly.

 

[Cheetah]

As I said:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...elay-with-no-plan-not-reasonable-or-desirable

France will block Brexit delay without 'new choice' by UK
French president’s comments come after Spain said it would demand conditions for article 50 extension

Emmanuel Macron has said France will block a Brexit delay unless there is a “new choice” by Britain, as Spain’s prime minister said that merely postponing the no-deal deadline would not be “reasonable or desirable”.

In a sign of the heightened risk of an accidental crash-landing for the UK, both leaders signalled their disapproval of Theresa May’s suggestion of a last-minute request for a two-month extension if her deal is voted down again.

The French president said there would need to be a clear purpose to delaying the UK’s exit from the EU, in comments that will inevitably raise cross-party concerns among those seeking to take no-deal Brexit off the table.

[...]

Westminster can't just will an extension into existence. When exactly are they going to understand who they're actually supposed to negotiate with?

 

[Hrothbern]

The one interests group within the UK that might have told some of them to stand down has already secured what it wanted from the EU

You mean London City ?

 

[Thorgalaeg]

And as i keep posting, it is very strange how you go on about ‘imperialism’ elsewhere and then here you post, without any caveats, that Northern Ireland is ‘sovereign British territory’ just like that.

Remarkable itsn it? I think it is because the traditional Portuguese attitude towards Britain. I will avoid using the exact expression, though...

 

[Arakhor]

Westminster can't just will an extension into existence. When exactly are they going to understand who they're actually supposed to negotiate with?

It's not really Westminster's fault at this point. Yes, the MPs might be misguided or stating unreachable goals, but they're not the ones in government and are being explicitly excluded from any meaningful activity at every turn. At this rate, if an extension is not on the cards, I can see the Commons voting to repeal Article 50 and then the PM will be in an interesting situation.

 

[Cheetah]

Well, collectively speaking, Westminster holds all the power in the UK. The Tories are still part of it, even though they also have the Government.

 

[Hrothbern]

The EU should change Art 50:

* after triggering Art 50 there is (only) a 6 months period in which that exiting member stays in the Union rules, after which there is always an end to the relation.
* during that 6 months everybody can prepare business, borders, etc....and negotiations can take place for bare bone WTO deals if so desired.
* full stop.
* if so desired after that 6 months negotiations can be started on the future trade relation.
Considering that negotiating a comprehensive FTA will take 5-10 years anyway, it is crystal clear that during that time there is a WTO relation.
(And I guess the EU would have made officially clear from day 1 of the Art 50 period that there would be no further negotiations on a future trade relation unless a solution would be achieved for the Irish border within those 6 months.

If that would have been Art 50, it could very well have taken perhaps 2-3 years before it was triggered, with a lot of internal Westminster debates with newsmedia involved.... but no distraction from UK-EU interactions on the Norway scenarios, Canada+++ FTA scenarios, Custom Union++++++ scenarios, etc, etc.
Just internal Westminster-UK on that binary choice: trigger Art 50 yes/no....... no involvement of the EU and as consequence no distractions possible using fake info on what the EU this or that.... no power grab from a PM at the expense of Parliament because of a "stronger" negotiating position to the EU .

And once Art 50 triggered all focus on preparing to leave.



If Art 50 would have been like that.... would it have been triggered ?
And if triggered.... would the newsmedia have been filled with all kinds of nonsense on EU agenda's and tricks and positions ?

Westminster can't just will an extension into existence. When exactly are they going to understand who they're actually supposed to negotiate with?

Theresa May is using her negotiations with the EU to use the EU for her internal politics, just like many newsmedia.

 

[Silurian]

Theresa May is using her negotiations with the EU to use the EU for her internal politics, just like many newsmedia.

I was not aware that any negotiations were taking place; with the EU.

 

[Hrothbern]

I was not aware that any negotiations were taking place; with the EU.

You mean during the last couple of weeks, the last 1-2 months ?

 

[Silurian]

@Hrothbern
Well since December it seems to be

UK " Can we change the backstop"
EU "What do you propose"
UK " Can we change the backstop"
EU "What do you propose"

 

[Hrothbern]

@Hrothbern
Well since December it seems to be

UK " Can we change the backstop"
EU "What do you propose"
UK " Can we change the backstop"
EU "What do you propose"

yes
I did mean the same

I wrote: "Theresa May is using her negotiations with the EU to use the EU for her internal politics, just like many newsmedia".

I should have been more clear by writing: "Theresa May is using her "negotiations" with the EU to use the EU for her internal politics, just like many newsmedia.

I think the negotiations with the EU, happening at slow pace with David Davis hardly there in Brussels, were practically ready in January 2018.
In terms of real interactions with the EU nothing much happens thereafter and this becomes painfully clear since December 2018.

"keeping up appearances" of a negotiation with the EU the last ditch strategy of May:
May even dragged nitty gritty people with her to the dessert meeting last weekend as if these people were needed for further negotiations with all those EU PM's together in Egypt to talk about other stuff.
May did two weekends phoning all PM's of the EU, to show how intensely important her efforts were in "negotiating" with the EU.
That Geoffrey Cox in Brussels for "improving" the legal text of the backstop (the font type and ink color or so)

Key to my point of my original post is that all these "negotiations" with the EU are just a distraction by May to control the UK.... and not helpfull at all for the UK to gets its own act together.
There was never much to negotiate with the EU anyway... that Withdrawal divorce deal could have been done in 3 months.

And the real negotiations with the EU start only after the exit on March 29: the real negotiations on a FTA deal, that are going to take many years.

 

[AdrienIer]

I dislike Macron, and in this video he's around his usual levels of condescension (ie close to unbearable), but I think he's completely right.

The fact that he states plainly that the UK is using the EU and the deal as a tool in their national infighting resonates with what Hrothbern (and others) are saying here. The difference being that he should be careful about what he's saying, being in a position of power, but at this point he just doesn't care because the UK government is a joke.

Edit : I think he's right but I dislike that he's using it as an argument against referendums in general.

 

[Silurian]

@Hrothbern I think May is just hoping that something will happen to get the Conservative party out of the mess, what it is no one knows. Hence the "negotiations" and the very dented can.

 

[Arakhor]

It's the Conservative Party using both the UK and the EU in their infighting, not the country as a whole.

 

[Hrothbern]

@Hrothbern I think May is just hoping that something will happen to get the Conservative party out of the mess, what it is no one knows. Hence the "negotiations" and the very dented can.

Yes
And as long as that "negotiating" happened with Barnier as EU interface, that postponing hoping for something was a perfectly normal and valid strategy...
except for the part where May uses it to that degree that it stiffles her party and Westminster, and becomes ineffective and abusive.
It goes really wrong when May starts with fluff and dealing herself with the EU Council members for newsmedia effects.

I dislike Macron, and in this video he's around his usual levels of condescension (ie close to unbearable), but I think he's completely right.

The fact that he states plainly that the UK is using the EU and the deal as a tool in their national infighting resonates with what Hrothbern (and others) are saying here. The difference being that he should be careful about what he's saying, being in a position of power, but at this point he just doesn't care because the UK government is a joke.

Edit : I think he's right but I dislike that he's using it as an argument against referendums in general.

yes...
and regarding referendums: it all depends on what you ask in a referendum.

Brexit is like agreeing in a family to move to another house, and finding out after you sold your house and need to move out after a year, that although everybody wanted to live somewhere else, they cannot agree together where.
But you did sign the contract to sell your house.

 

[Kyriakos]

Booooring.
Just brexit already.

 

[Silurian]

Another minister has resigned.

from Guardian

Fisheries minister George Eustice has resigned from the government over Theresa May’s decision to allow a vote on delaying article 50, saying it would be “the final humiliation of our country”.

Eustice, a former Ukip candidate, said he wanted to be free to participate in debates in parliament in the coming weeks, saying he resigned with “tremendous sadness”.

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...r-george-eustice-resigns-over-article-50-vote