Brexit Thread V - The Final Countdown?!?
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yes, something along those lines for the Big players
a "do not touch currency", for no risk in influencing the political process, for no blame for disturbing, for no risk in disturbing (so far) a process that can still lead ("in the normal way") to a deal.
Like an armistice.
Not so directly after the referendum (let the market magic balance happen), and the same during the first year of negotiating, but more so an armistice with time left diminishing.
My understanding:
The pound to $ was 1,50-1,60 before Cameron got elected. Slowly moved 1,45 before the referendum and dived down sharp to 1,32 directly after the referendum, to stabilise over 6 months to 1,20-1,25.
Most opinions the last couple of months are that a really soft deal would give 1,45, and a no-deal below 1,20 up to between 1,00-1,10 temporarily with a cliff edge.. A simple FTA more like 1,20-1,25.
A transition period deal would give 1,30-1,35 indicating a 50/50 chance between a soft close deal and a simple FTA.
Not to exclude in all this is that the $ is expected to weaken a bit the next years because of Trump's kamikaze approach to trade wars, the wall, and the tax cut deficits stategy. In a continued remain the Pound would have become stronger than 1,50-1,60.
With the Pound currently at around 1,30, these values do not make it imo probable that the City assumes a no-deal.
Cheetah
Deity
It is quite literally the «Agreement on the withdrawal of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland from the European Union and the European Atomic Energy Community», and was negotiated by Prime Minister Theresa May's Government of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
And @Cheetah
You are joking. Only 1,5 countries decide, Greece not one of them.
Though asking for the marbles would have been neat, it wont happen. (Precedent for the other thieves of antiquities, france and germany & unlike france at least britain didnt kill greeks so as to steal stuff like the nike of samothrace statue)
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Silurian
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Why not Greece will have power over us.
No, but if by you you mean fyrom then the demographics look bleak, m8. Soon you will have albanian majority; and you know what happens then.
Silurian
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No, but if by you you mean fyrom then the demographics look bleak, m8. Soon you will have albanian majority; and you know what happens then.
No I am talking about Greece's leverage over the UK if we want to rejoin.
When North Macedonian joins the EU they will also have claims.
The Albanians may well may well move to southern Macedonia
Cheetah
Deity
I'm not quite sure if you're on your regular anti-EU-rambles, or if you really don't know?
Greece will have a veto on any extension, and can absolutely make demands to agree to any extension.
innonimatu
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Comparing it to the euro would be more relevant.It rose then fell then rose then fell, its' about the same now as 5 years ago.
Nice of you to think that this theoretical veto will mean anything. Maybe spain will get gibraltar too.
Well, on that particular front the UK is going to be at a disadvantage, since Gibraltar voted overwhelmingly for Remain and so far the EU's position has been that it takes no sides because both the UK and Spain are EU members.
Which reminds me that at some point the UK will just have to give up its bases on Cyprus.
Which reminds me that at some point the UK will just have to give up its bases on Cyprus.
TIL the that there are cute girlish personifications used by CGP grey
Yes, there are - and yesterday on topic, too.
In terms of economical effects of trade between the EU and the UK the Euro is certainly very important.
But the US dollar is still the measure of all things financial and most stable.
The problem with the Euro is that since 2000 it has no constant value, or better: constant strenght to other major currencies in the world.
The introduction of the Euro caused out of the blue an enormous increase in value to the US dollar and many other currencies (compared to the 50 predecessing years of the ECU, the virtual Euro calculation unit) , which was followed by a strong decrease back in value after the GFC and during the Eurozone crisis. (that too high level so big that it affected trade negatively just when so badly needed after the GFC. It took also too much time before the Euro was at its lower, if not natural lower level, closer to where it was launched in line with the average of the ECU)
The Eurozone crisis is still going on. Not as severely as in 2015, not at the brink of a ECB stating to defend the Euro at all cost, but still under pressure in doubt.
If there is some news on Greece, all the articles in newsmedia on the Euro strongly increase. When Italy is theatening to stop building down it's debt the articles in the newsmedia increase strongly.
It's not intensive care anymore, but still a patient not considered fully recovered by mainstream analysts.
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Nice of you to think that this theoretical veto will mean anything. Maybe spain will get gibraltar too.
Hey... Greece did one or more pretty nasty veto's in the past where China would be affected by EU decisions.
It's not theorethical.
Or at least... it was not theorethical.
A different time- and i think you mean russia
Cheetah
Deity
No, Greece blocked EU condemning China, cause China is buying your ports or somesuch.
They have control of some ports for a few decades, including peireus. Good for them and better them than some eu garbage.
If UK asks for extension, I don't see any one EU country standing to gain anything from going against the others by throwing a veto.
That would be why Greece wouldn't do this either.
The question is rather, whether the Brexit fatigue of EU-27 is already big enough that they'll tell the UK to get it over with all together.
That would be why Greece wouldn't do this either.
The question is rather, whether the Brexit fatigue of EU-27 is already big enough that they'll tell the UK to get it over with all together.
Impossible. We all know nothing happens in EU except what Germany wants.
Hey, maybe they'll be willing to buy the whole country?
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