Brexit Thread V - The Final Countdown?!?
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I have not that much against her remarks per se.
I mean... she's sort of right.
Parliament has asserted its authority in contrast with the excutive. It's only fair they have the corresponding responsibility as well.
However i would like to argue a point of optics:
She should have brought paper. Never mind reading from it. Just bring an irrelevant stack of paper to the podium and carry it away. Particularly the latter.
With briefs in her hand she'd have looked all serious and whatnot while walking away.
This way: Hawkward.
With my morning coffee, reflecting back
Let's not forget that we are merely in the late, but not endgame, showdown phase. For every player other opportunities and another kind of abyss as risk.
And still many days to go compared to the net time needed in UK Parliament and EU Council for those few decisions that determine the future direction.
On May her: "get it done" and "don't blame me, blame the MP's"
I think her main aim of that is to damage the Rees-Mogg faction, and the MP's from all other parties. With herself, perhaps clumsy, but still as the one personificating the good and sensible Tory party, taking the statesman direction the (Tory) people want.
She is getting critisised and beaten up from all sides. Nobody likes that. But when it happens... then at least use it to advance your objectives, to your advantage.
I think that, especially in this emotional phase, the priority of the main players is still their political party, or their faction effect on their party. Which ofc alligns to their own career or legacy.
What is said now, what the people pick up out of this traumatic experience will be deeply ingrained in their mindset.... will be pivotal for their voting behaviour for many years to come.
As such, economically, the long term difference between a cliff edge no-deal and the May deal is not that big. Although in the cliff edge no-deal most of these economical effects start directly instead of after 21 months. May's deal is also a hard Brexit starting at WTO level, in the medium term FTA, and only in 5-10 years really comprehensive with perhaps closer elements added when that "take back control" sentiment is less manifesting.
The real political voting behaviour disadvantage of the cliff edge no-deal is that Brexit damage comes more abrupt, is not smeared out over years, is less veiled. But the people get impatient... want everything "now".
With May doing the dirty work of saving the Tory voter base, the EU negotiations... the Rees-Mogg faction has its hands free to (try to) take over the party. And when it becomes the cliff edge disruption, he can blame May for not preparing well enough for the "obvious" outcome being that WTO start.
Comfortable.
The only abyss for Rees-Mogg is the long extension and associated risks on a close EU relation, a permanent Customs Union preventing global FTA's and changing the UK. The imo very small Remain risk on top.
It's up to Corbyn now.
How many options has Corbyn really left to save the Labour voting base, except the blame game ?
The majority of his voter base wants a softer Brexit or no Brexit at all. But how to get a soft Brexit ?
Cross-party will be needed. And if he does not come up very fast with something, offering real perspective before March 29, Labour MP's could even vote for May's deal to prevent the cliff edge no-deal extra damage as last usefull action in a battle lost to the Tories.
His action yesterday towards the spokesman of The Independent Group, to word it neutral, was not helpful at all to get a cross-party alliance closer, especially regarding the little time left.
Cross-party the only tool available to change the Tory path.
The EU ?
Why would the EU move ? for example with making stronger statements on giving more room by any kind of extension ?
It is only now, under that showdown pressure, that things start happening in the UK, after years of nothingness.
No hurry.
And apparently Westminster is so far not in a hurry as well.
Ignoring the public infighting... what counts is whether solutions are forged behind the curtains... I see no meaningful signs of that yet.
Let's not forget that we are merely in the late, but not endgame, showdown phase. For every player other opportunities and another kind of abyss as risk.
And still many days to go compared to the net time needed in UK Parliament and EU Council for those few decisions that determine the future direction.
On May her: "get it done" and "don't blame me, blame the MP's"
I think her main aim of that is to damage the Rees-Mogg faction, and the MP's from all other parties. With herself, perhaps clumsy, but still as the one personificating the good and sensible Tory party, taking the statesman direction the (Tory) people want.
She is getting critisised and beaten up from all sides. Nobody likes that. But when it happens... then at least use it to advance your objectives, to your advantage.
I think that, especially in this emotional phase, the priority of the main players is still their political party, or their faction effect on their party. Which ofc alligns to their own career or legacy.
What is said now, what the people pick up out of this traumatic experience will be deeply ingrained in their mindset.... will be pivotal for their voting behaviour for many years to come.
As such, economically, the long term difference between a cliff edge no-deal and the May deal is not that big. Although in the cliff edge no-deal most of these economical effects start directly instead of after 21 months. May's deal is also a hard Brexit starting at WTO level, in the medium term FTA, and only in 5-10 years really comprehensive with perhaps closer elements added when that "take back control" sentiment is less manifesting.
The real political voting behaviour disadvantage of the cliff edge no-deal is that Brexit damage comes more abrupt, is not smeared out over years, is less veiled. But the people get impatient... want everything "now".
With May doing the dirty work of saving the Tory voter base, the EU negotiations... the Rees-Mogg faction has its hands free to (try to) take over the party. And when it becomes the cliff edge disruption, he can blame May for not preparing well enough for the "obvious" outcome being that WTO start.
Comfortable.
The only abyss for Rees-Mogg is the long extension and associated risks on a close EU relation, a permanent Customs Union preventing global FTA's and changing the UK. The imo very small Remain risk on top.
It's up to Corbyn now.
How many options has Corbyn really left to save the Labour voting base, except the blame game ?
The majority of his voter base wants a softer Brexit or no Brexit at all. But how to get a soft Brexit ?
Cross-party will be needed. And if he does not come up very fast with something, offering real perspective before March 29, Labour MP's could even vote for May's deal to prevent the cliff edge no-deal extra damage as last usefull action in a battle lost to the Tories.
His action yesterday towards the spokesman of The Independent Group, to word it neutral, was not helpful at all to get a cross-party alliance closer, especially regarding the little time left.
Cross-party the only tool available to change the Tory path.
The EU ?
Why would the EU move ? for example with making stronger statements on giving more room by any kind of extension ?
It is only now, under that showdown pressure, that things start happening in the UK, after years of nothingness.
No hurry.
And apparently Westminster is so far not in a hurry as well.
Ignoring the public infighting... what counts is whether solutions are forged behind the curtains... I see no meaningful signs of that yet.
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EnglishEdward
Deity
Two very different assessments.
The way I see it is most likely that as soon as the UK leaves the EU, the conservative MPs will very quickly replace Theresa May
as their leader in Parliament, and then have an early general election with a new leader's face to try to see off Jeremy Corbyn.
no difference between no-deal or May's deal regarding the Tories wanting elections ?
it seems to me more risky after a no-deal
EnglishEdward
Deity
And one of those may before long.
Things get much more risky in all sorts of ways if Martin Barnier's prevention of withdrawal surrender document is ratified.
The key to understanding the Holy Roman Empire is to know that it was neither Holy, Roman nor an Empire.
And "Theresa May's withdrawal agreement" is neither Theresa May's, for withdrawal nor an agreement.
Silurian
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May is safe until December when a new Conservative no confidence motion can be tabled. She will leave before then if she feels she has delivered. If there is a no deal will she feel that she has delivered or will she feel obliged to sort out the mess. If there was a Conservative no confidence motion now I think she would lose especially after her attack on her MPs last night. This attack indicates to me that she will fight on and on until December.
EnglishEdward
Deity
This assumes that the tories slavishly follow their own rules. They did this when selecting a replacement for William Hague, having their members
vote for Ian Duncan Smith and for Kenneth Clarke. But IIRC when IDS lost their confidence, he was replayed by Michael Howard almost instantly.
I think that Theresa May may be similarly removed very quickly and with someone, my favourite Phil Hammond, shoe horned in.
I don't know what the view is at Buckingham Palace, dear Lizzie is 92 years old and I am
not sure how sharp she is, or how much Prince Charles is actually running things that end,
but the fact that they let government idle after David Cameron quit for a few weeks does not
mean that they would permit the conservatives the luxury of following their procedure
immediately post UKexcit; they might insist that a temporary prime minister is installed.
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Silurian
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William Hague resigned the day after the 2001 election because he failed to make an impact. Five MPs stood for leader of the Conservative party and Iain Duncan Smith won.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2001_Conservative_Party_(UK)_leadership_election
Iain Duncan Smith lost a vote of no confidence by the Conservative MP's. No one stood against Michael Howard, as was the case with May in 2016.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_Conservative_Party_(UK)_leadership_election
The Tories followed their own rules there is no reason to suppose that they will not continues to follow them. May won her no confidence vote in December, unlike IDS, so in accordance to the rules she is safe until this December. She could resign like Hague but I think she feels she is on a mission to deliver brexit.
The Tories could change their rules to allow more frequent votes of no confidence in their leader but I can not see such a rule being enacted until May leaves. If they tried to changes the rules before May goes, in effect have a coup, they would split the party. Why would they so damage the party when they can get rid of her within the rules in December.
Morelike at her whips end, amirite
EnglishEdward
Deity
If and after UKexcit occurs, the split between Tory Remainers and Tory Leavers becomes less
important, but Labour will likely remain split between Jeremy Corbyn and his socialists v others.
In such circumstances the conservatives may relish the prospect of a general election,
hoping to rule in their own right rather than have to listen to the old testament DUP.
But they don't trust Theresa May to campaign for them which is why they will want her to go.
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Ian Duncan Smith was the most ridiculous party leader (though i never paid attention to Howard; wasn't in London by then).
In fact only thing i know re Howard is the infamous interview where he failed to answer the question "did you threaten to overrule him?" 15 times in a row.
In fact only thing i know re Howard is the infamous interview where he failed to answer the question "did you threaten to overrule him?" 15 times in a row.
Silurian
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Well yes she could hold out till the snow comes.
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