Brexit Thread V - The Final Countdown?!?
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Lexicus
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innonimatu
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Now you believe what I have been saying? It's perfectly logical consider the actual consequences of each possible decision. I'll repeat:
Canceling brexit (revoking Article 50) would obviously be a disaster for all parties involved and they know it: it would not end the division within the UK, rather the opposite, it would intensify it. It would keep the EU embroiled in that drama. It would keep people and businesses locked in permanent uncertainty.
"May's deal" failed and it should by now be obvious that it never had the support from the key players: Corbyn (and virtually all Labour) refusing it, even the allegedly "pro-EU" parties refusing it, Bercow torpedoing it. And May putting on a show of attempting concessions after being refused again and again, transparently burning time.
A new referendum is nearly as politically suicidal as cancelling brexit: deciding the question(s) would be divisive and leave a number of malcontents, the result is uncertain, and the only possible result that might pacify the country would be a confirmation of leave. If remain (assuming that it was again leave versus remain) won in a new referendum, there would immediately be cries for a third referendum. Leave winning again would shut up the remainers once and for all I guess.
Calling a new General Election now is suicidal both for the Tories and Labour. Brexit would be the central issue and they would be forced to take a side, both are too split for that. So neither actually wants an election prior to brexit being done with.
There is zero chance of brexit being just canceled. Even those openly for remain covered their attempt to reverse brexit with a plan for a new referendum. An idea that also failed.
A General Election before brexit is suicide for both Labour and the Concervative Party.
That leaves May's deal, which is also a disaster in the making and will get broken. Or exit on the correct date, and end to this drama and opening new negotiations on new terms (because automatically the situation regarding the "irish border" and the "exit payment" changes: the EU's red lines collapse). Talk of an extension is just part of the blame game. May does not actually want an extension, she's just a fine actress I believe. And the EU side is work out and does't expect to gain anything from one. Notice what those speaking for the EU on this stated about an extension, and then what May asked for in that letter:
Which is no more than the truth of what happened (and Bercow helped with that). The EU asked for the impossible given the recent votes in Parliament and the political situation in the UK. Deliberately. And May answered with the unacceptable. Deliberately.
@Silurian, you have been deceiving yourself and letting yourself be played in this game.
Lexicus
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Can you explain more about what you mean by this? Are you suggesting that UKIP would get a majority or something? I don't mean to sound like I'm dismissing the idea because I honestly just don't know what you mean by it.
innonimatu
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The terms of brexit are the political issue in the UK. Inescapable and overriding. Any campaign for a snap election would have to be about it. Neither the conservatives nor labour can offer one programme for brexit. They cannot take a stand on the issue of the election without splitting.
One immediate and inescapable consequence is that predicting the result of such a GE is impossible. Usually polls are reasonably accurate, in this case enormous swings are likely depending on how the parties split internally and what position wins. Depending also on the side of splinter groups. Labour already had one but lost nothing so far, but a GE campaing on the brexit issue would split both parties surely. This is especially bad for a fptp system like the UK's.
One very likely consequence is the rise of competing parties, the UKIP on the side or the tories or even a completely new party, the SNP , LD, or some organized group splitting from Labour.
Another likely consequence is that after the GE no party would have a majority and no group of parties could agree on one course, making the UK's inability to decide (and thus no-deal exit by default) even higher than now, if that is possible!
An General Election solves nothing, with high probability only worsens the situation and breaks both parties. None of the leading actors in this (the Conservatives, Labour, the EU) see it as a solution.
Look at the propaganda outlets catering to the moneymakers with access to power. The Economist is conspicuously abstaining from opinionating or predicting anything, they gave up on it a couple of weeks ago. The FT is not pushing anything either. Blomberg is hedging. There are the people who want to influence events but dare not compromise their credibility by appearing to have been on the losing side.
Edit: actually they seem to be preparing the ground to take "the UK's side" in the blame game. Current headline in Bloomberg: "EU Pushes U.K. to Brink of No-Deal Brexit"
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Senethro
Overlord
You've never been worried about making grand predictions that don't come true. If only everyone could be so brave.
innonimatu
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No, I'm not worried about that. I'm worried about urging people to inform themselves and reason about the information that is available. We do have plenty of information available, the problem is that people tend to not read or dismiss that which they dislike.
You have been keeping a record for grand predictions of mine not coming true? I'm flattered and would enjoy reading it!
You have been keeping a record for grand predictions of mine not coming true? I'm flattered and would enjoy reading it!
Senethro
Overlord
Sounds like the beginning of a game tbh. Use an RNG to select a page number and see how many pages you can read before a wrong inno prediction comes up.
innonimatu
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In kill the messenger mood, are you? Doesn't change the message, much less the reality. You are one of those people.
Silurian
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It is unlikely the UKIP would gain more than one or two seats, they will just cannibalize the Tory vote. The Tories are more split than Labour. In an election labour would try to campaign on NHS, Universal Credit, cuts etc. They would state that Brexit is the Tory Brexit the Tories are responsible for it. The Conservatives would have to convince potential voters that Labour would have made a bigger mess but that highlights that the Conservatives caused the mess we have got.
UKIP has pretty much imploded since Brexit going through several leaders and lurching to the far right. Farage's new Brexit Party is a total unknown although its already had a leader have to resign because of saying stupid things.
TIG needs more defections from Labour and/or Tories if its going to get any momentum going. I can see the Greens, Plaid Cymru and especially SNP doing well out of an election. I can't see May getting a majority, probably losing seats. I can't see her going for an election.
TIG needs more defections from Labour and/or Tories if its going to get any momentum going. I can see the Greens, Plaid Cymru and especially SNP doing well out of an election. I can't see May getting a majority, probably losing seats. I can't see her going for an election.
innonimatu
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May's latest public statement (I cannot call it a speech) seemed to be already in campaign mode: "I tried, those in Parliament blocked me". Imho she's not about to resign, she plans to keep on as PM or run again if an election is forced. And I can see her getting away with it!
A GE won't happen prior to brexit, but I thing that May is playing the scenario through for the immediate post-brexit. It'll be her rivals inside the party who will want to avoid that. May herself has little to lose: as it is she has her authority constantly challenged and adversaries in the party just waiting for their time, she can't expect to last. Unless she risks it all, successfully plays the "only consistent leader/victim", and gains a majority in a new election. If she wins she weakens her adversaries within the party and gets a more compliant parliament. Sweet revenge on all those who undermined her? Is she the type who runs on that?
Another GE is risky, if but the alternative is downfall she may as well risk it. Her MPs won't like it though (they have more to lose!), and formally a majority in parliament has to vote to call a new election. But what can they do if their own party leader tells them to do it? It'd be surreal if they voted against new elections called by their own PM...
Silurian
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May's latest public statement (I cannot call it a speech) seemed to be already in campaign mode: "I tried, those in Parliament blocked me". Imho she's not about to resign, she plans to keep on as PM or run again if an election is forced. And I can see her getting away with it!
A GE won't happen prior to brexit, but I thing that May is playing the scenario through for the immediate post-brexit. It'll be her rivals inside the party who will want to avoid that. May herself has little to lose: as it is she has her authority constantly challenged and adversaries in the party just waiting for their time, she can't expect to last. Unless she risks it all, successfully plays the "only consistent leader/victim", and gains a majority in a new election. If she wins she weakens her adversaries within the party and gets a more compliant parliament. Sweet revenge on all those who undermined her? Is she the type who runs on that?
Another GE is risky, if but the alternative is downfall she may as well risk it. Her MPs won't like it though (they have more to lose!), and formally a majority in parliament has to vote to call a new election. But what can they do if their own party leader tells them to do it? It'd be surreal if they voted against new elections called by their own PM...
You do know she has to get 66% of the vote for her to call an election.
innonimatu
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No, hadn't checked that. I though she only needed an absolute majority as I was used to in other parliamentary systems. Still, if the sitting PM government calls an early election, can any opposition afford to vote against without automatically losing popular support? This can be reasoned about, but it is just so weird!
Silurian
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It was brought in so that David Cameron could not call an election and leave the Libdems high and dry; part of the fixed terms parliament act.
Its not the opposition it is her own MPs who she has just insulted and who may well loose there seats in a vote or be deselected.
How would it look to the electorate if half the Conservative MPs voted against calling an election.
Its not the opposition it is her own MPs who she has just insulted and who may well loose there seats in a vote or be deselected.
How would it look to the electorate if half the Conservative MPs voted against calling an election.
innonimatu
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And how would it look for her if she attempted to call a new election and her own MPs defeated? That would be total loss of authority, her rivals in the party would be able to change party rules to have her replaced I guess! Yes, that is the one thing I can see preventing her from risking that gamble.
The UK is going through one of those times when every political twist seems possible. I hope you end up making the best of it, there is a lot that could change for the better there. But I do fear May has maneuvered herself into an advantageous position as things stand.
The UK is going through one of those times when every political twist seems possible. I hope you end up making the best of it, there is a lot that could change for the better there. But I do fear May has maneuvered herself into an advantageous position as things stand.
Silurian
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I think she is being blown by the wind and is at her whits end. All she wants to do is deliver "a" brexit because she said she would. If the withdrawal agreement had passed she most likely would be in discussions with the 1922 committee about when to stand down this summer.
FriendlyFire
Codex WMDicanious
10 days till default HardBrexit, and the UK seem to be unable to get their act together
Either way, the UK is about to get hosed.
Do you mean the nouns or the verbs? Or both sets?
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