Brexit Thread V - The Final Countdown?!?

[Thorgalaeg]

All is fun and laughs till Obelix gets involved.

 

[Kyriakos]

Gauls

 

[Hrothbern]

All is fun and laughs till Obelix gets involved.

Obelix is easily satisfied with some boars as snack in between his menhir carving.

Liam Fox possibly reducing all WTO tariffs to zero after a no-deal, for at least an interim period, including the 15% on (boar) meat.
The liberalised free WTO market as answer to everything: no tariffs, no quota.
Let's see how many product standards survive as last barrier to protect domestic people, and jobs in industry & agriculture.
Current EU tariffs, now applying to the UK, are on average 2.8% for non-food, 10% for cars, 10-15% for fruits, vegetables, meat and 35% for dairy.

The general idea for the short term is clear: preventing price increases for the household shopping of the ordinary people to prevent disruption and inflation.
EU goods can continue to poor in without disruptions. There are the first year no customs borders (eliminated as posted in earlier posts) and no tariffs to collect. Dead simple no-deal mitigation.
Especially UK domestic agriculture is protesting afraid of cheap flooding from the US. But to be fair, this will take some time to organise and depends also on UK retail policies.
I see already for me the news of angry farmers blocking the retail warehousings of Tesco and other unpatriotic Big Retail, incl "Made in UK" and "Produced in UK" stickers on food.

In reality the Pound will devaluate more than most tariffs, and make foreign product more expensive at that same devaluation rate. And those farmers should under the Gove environmental strategy become some kind of bio, organic food producer anyway mixed with green landscape effects.

It looks all in all to me more like a mitigating action for the small wallets, it will for sure shake farming.... and... it will be a nice PR for the true free liberal market of which the actions of lowering workers, living and food standards will conveniently follow at low profile for Liam Fox et al.

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/en...tlnkukhpmg00000001&utm_campaign=share_twitter

No surprise that Corbyn tries to wriggle in the Withdrawal document guarantees that for example the UK will stay complying to EU standards on workers etc.

 

[Kyriakos]

Useful to keep in mind that in england a "made in the uk" campaign will easily gain mass support. Not sure if they have that much to fully make, but the campaign will.

 

[Silurian]

I am not sure how much food will be imported from the US. When GM started to be sold supermarkets made a virtue of not selling it.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/66726.stm

If the UK decided to allow the import of chemically washed meat how long would it be before all the major supermarket chains would be advertising that they do not sell US produced meat. So the US would be locked out of 90% of the market and US products would be associated with the need to be washed.

 

[really]

Useful to keep in mind that in england a "made in the uk" campaign will easily gain mass support. Not sure if they have that much to fully make, but the campaign will.

My morning weetabix comes from Burton Latimer.
Usually it has generic non UK packaging but every now and then the UK specific packaging is delivered with big made in the UK type brands using wheat grown within fifty miles of factory blurb arrives.
I might have to default to local porridge which might as well come from the local animal feed store if it becomes unavailable.

 

[Manfred Belheim]

If Scotland leaves the UK at the same time as the UK is leaving the EU, then there wouldn't be much of any extra difficulties, though.

The problems are the same, and aren't the kind of problems that add up.

And they should take roughly the same time to resolve, depending on the competency of the political leadership.

Well... no because the UK leaving the EU isn't going to necessitate a change of currency or central bank. Scotland leaving the UK would. Plus presumably the conception is that Scotland would be rejoining the EU (otherwise the "Little England" comment wouldn't make much sense), which would surely complicate things further, plus possibly adopting the Euro as well. I can't see how any of that could possibly not cause significant extra difficulties.

I'm talking about leaving the UK (although unlikely to actually do it) because I don't like my country becoming more xenophobic.

Why do you think it's becoming more xenophobic? It can't be just because we're leaving the EU otherwise Scotland leaving the UK would make them more xenophobic too.

It's vanishingly plausible that a party which has been campaigning to remove Scotland from the UK since 1934 may have some clearer idea of what the transition process will look like than a party which removed Britain from the EU by accident.

Knowing what a dumpster fire will look like before you strike the match doesn't make it any less of a dumpster fire.

 

[Senethro]

Why do you think it's becoming more xenophobic? It can't be just because we're leaving the EU otherwise Scotland leaving the UK would make them more xenophobic too.

You should read your own posts in your head before hitting the button.

 

[Broken_Erika]

Knowing what a dumpster fire will look like before you strike the match doesn't make it any less of a dumpster fire.

Hey! The proper term is Waste-Disposal-Unit-Conflagration!

 

[Hrothbern]

I am not sure how much food will be imported from the US. When GM started to be sold supermarkets made a virtue of not selling it.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/66726.stm

If the UK decided to allow the import of chemically washed meat how long would it be before all the major supermarket chains would be advertising that they do not sell US produced meat. So the US would be locked out of 90% of the market and US products would be associated with the need to be washed.

Yes
Voting with your wallet can be very powerfull.
Long time ago, early 70ies, before there was any political willingness in NL to support sanctions on South Africa Apartheid, a couple of small picketing actions at our biggest retail chain shops to stop selling Outspan oranges, with the "promise" to do that continuously everywhere, was enough to have an effective boycot of all Sout African products by all our retail chains.

I guess that even McDonalds kip nuggets in the UK will not become chlorinated US imports.

And Climate should be a driver to want the country or region of production origin to be on the packaging.
Shorter distances as proxy for a lower Carbon footprint.

 

[Cheetah]

Well... no because the UK leaving the EU isn't going to necessitate a change of currency or central bank. Scotland leaving the UK would. Plus presumably the conception is that Scotland would be rejoining the EU (otherwise the "Little England" comment wouldn't make much sense), which would surely complicate things further, plus possibly adopting the Euro as well. I can't see how any of that could possibly not cause significant extra difficulties.

They could simply choose to keep using GBPs until they're ready to shift to something else. It's not ideal to not have one's own central bank, but could be an acceptable solution in an interim situation.

Rejoining the EU -- assuming they left the UK legally -- should be straightforward, especially since they're already matching all the EU rules and regulations.

The Euro is problematic, of course, but if the alternatives are keeping the British Pound or making a new Scottish currency, it might not be too bad a choice. The Euro mostly works, after all, and must surely be reformed eventually anyway.

 

[Lexicus]

If the Scots are smart they won't touch the Euro with a ten-foot (edit: sorry, three-meter) pole. I have no faith that it will be reformed.

 

[plarq]

Scottish Pound is possible.

 

[Hrothbern]

They could simply choose to keep using GBPs until they're ready to shift to something else. It's not ideal to not have one's own central bank, but could be an acceptable solution in an interim situation.

Rejoining the EU -- assuming they left the UK legally -- should be straightforward, especially since they're already matching all the EU rules and regulations.

The Euro is problematic, of course, but if the alternatives are keeping the British Pound or making a new Scottish currency, it might not be too bad a choice. The Euro mostly works, after all, and must surely be reformed eventually anyway.

First there needs to evolve a balance between the kind of economy Scotland develops as separate country and the value of a local currency before it makes sense at all to think about joining the Euro.
Could easily take ten years or so before that gets a bit more clear.

 

[tjs282]

If Scotland leaves the UK to (re)join the EU, will it be a "Scotch Eggsit"?

Sorry. I'll get my coat...

 

[Timsup2nothin]

If Scotland leaves the UK to (re)join the EU, will it be a "Scotch Eggsit"?

Sorry. I'll get my coat...

Scexit.

Grab mine too, eh?

 

[Traitorfish]

I would vote "Calexit" but the goddam Bear Flaggers already staked out their claim on that one.

 

[Lexicus]

I would vote "Calexit" but the goddam Bear Flaggers already staked out their claim on that one.

Just warning anyone if they try to make a joke after this one it's not going to be as good

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Just warning anyone if they try to make a joke after this one it's not going to be as good

I had already taken a pass, but this was a good public service announcement.

 

[Kyriakos]

I am waiting for Irire.