Brexit Thread V - The Final Countdown?!?

[Silurian]

A referendum would take months to organise assuming it would get through parliament. The electoral commission would also have to agree the question so that it is not ambiguous etc. Also there is no such thing as a binding referendum no parliament can bind a future parliament.

 

[Hrothbern]

I read somewhere that a binding, immediate second referendum was being seriously considered.

Perhaps this ?

There is word on the following cross-party initiative:
May's deal is amended with the condition that a new referendum is hold with the choice A. accept the May deal and B. Remain in the EU.
This referendum would be binding and have immediate effect, and I guess the EU will accept the delay for extending the Art 50 period.

The initiative, aimed at breaking the political impasse, is being advanced by Labour MPs Peter Kyle and Phil Wilson and has won the support of prominent Remainers in the Tory party including Sarah Wollaston, Dominic Grieve and Anna Soubry.
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...-deal-then-hold-peoples-vote-backbencher-plan

Some people are enthusiast over this, but the hardcore no-deal Brexiteers, will ofc be against it (because of the Remain option) and I guess Corbyn will also be against it, for the same reason.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

A referendum would take months to organise assuming it would get through parliament. The electoral commission would also have to agree the question so that it is not ambiguous etc. Also there is no such thing as a binding referendum no parliament can bind a future parliament.

The time tables for the referendum was early March I believe. I don't discount how hard it is to organize a new referendum but I don't think it has to be a monumental task either. The issue has been debated ad naseum and I don't think the PMs or the people need further education and debate to make a rationale choice. I think people now have a good understanding of what they're in for and it's time to poop or get off the pot, so to speak.

One benefit of this protracted negotiation with the EU is that the lies, misdirection and propaganda of both sides have been laid bare and there is a concrete deal on the table to vote up or down, not only projections and hyperbole.

 

[Silurian]

@hobbsyoyo to hold a referendum the draft question or questions have to be first agreed.
The electoral commission has to then test the question to ensure that it is understood by all sections of society. Some words mean different things to different people you can not just go by the dictionary definition.
Parliament would then have to enact the approved question.
There would then be a political campaign.
There is no way that that a referendum could be held before the end of May.

 

[Cheetah]

The time tables for the referendum was early March I believe.

Whoever wrote that doesn't know what they're talking about then. Or they're lying.

If on this coming Tuesday, Parliament decided to hold a referendum as soon as absolutely possible, it could not take place before the 4th of June, at the earliest. And that's if there are no delays anywhere in the process.

Which takes us past not only the Brexit date, but also the European Parliamentary elections.

 

[Mega Tsunami]

As French troops mass on the Italian border, so to speak, Italy appears to be one of the few countries in the EU with some common sense.
Why does it take people from Lega and Five5star (of all institutions) to point out what damage those two clowns Jean Claude Drunker and Donald Trump are doing to the process of Brexit?

From the Telegraph:
Italy explores its own bilateral Brexit deal with Britain as its economic crisis nears danger level
Italy is drawing up emergency plans to safeguard financial stability and keep trade with the UK flowing even if there is a no-deal Brexit, if necessary through a bilateral deal between Rome and London.

The country’s insurgent Lega-Five Star coalition is increasingly worried that a mishandling of the EU’s Brexit crisis could push Italy's fragile economy into a dangerous downward slide and risk a funding crisis for its sovereign debt at a treacherous moment.

Premier Giuseppe Conte has told his Brexit Task Force to focus urgently on ports, airports, customs, and the handling of food trade, as well as the status of Italians living in the UK.

Palazzo Chigi, the prime minister’s inner machine, is exploring what Italy can do under its own authority to defuse the stand-off with Britain. While this is relatively straightforward for issues such as citizens’ rights, it is unclear how it would work in trade and finance where the EU sets the rules.

Both the Lega and Five Star movement have Eurosceptic roots and are irked by the Brexit strategy of the European Commission, seen as rigid, ideological, and potentially explosive.

“We want the closest possible bilateral ties with the UK and certainly don’t agree with any idea of punishment. You are our customer,” said Claudio Borghi, the Lega’s economics spokesman and chairman of the budget committee in parliament.

“Unfortunately we are not in charge of Europe, at least not yet,” he said.
It is a perilous time for Italy. The economy is in a protracted recession. Risk spreads on its 10-year bonds are again nearing the threshold of 300 basis points, the level where trouble has begun in the past.
The country’s financial system depends on the City of London for global funding of its bond markets. “Great Britain is in a sense Europe’s investment banker,” said Confindustria, Italy’s business federation.
<snip>
“What worries us about Brexit is that exporters in the rest of the world will come in and undercut us. This is what happened after the Russia sanctions in 2014. The Turks grabbed our market share,” he said.
Coldiretti is concerned that suppliers in places such as South Africa, Kenya, or parts of Latin America will suddenly gain an edge in UK supermarkets.
If the UK were to opt for unilateral free trade to keep ports open in a no-deal scenario - as has been floated by Trade Secretary Liam Fox, at least as a temporary measure - it might lead to an irreversible loss of UK market share for Europe’s high-cost producers.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/busines...ilateral-brexit-deal-britain-economic-crisis/


Woops. There I go again, mixing people up. This time the two Donalds, Trump and Tusk. One is a rude, arrogant tweeter… and so is the other.
The EU must envy the Americans though. At least the latter get the opportunity to vote their Donald out in a couple of years. No such democratic process exists in the EU of course.

 

[Hrothbern]

As French troops mass on the Italian border, so to speak, Italy appears to be one of the few countries in the EU with some common sense.
Why does it take people from Lega and Five5star (of all institutions) to point out what damage those two clowns Jean Claude Drunker and Donald Trump are doing to the process of Brexit?

From the Telegraph:
Italy explores its own bilateral Brexit deal with Britain as its economic crisis nears danger level
Italy is drawing up emergency plans to safeguard financial stability and keep trade with the UK flowing even if there is a no-deal Brexit, if necessary through a bilateral deal between Rome and London.

The country’s insurgent Lega-Five Star coalition is increasingly worried that a mishandling of the EU’s Brexit crisis could push Italy's fragile economy into a dangerous downward slide and risk a funding crisis for its sovereign debt at a treacherous moment.

Premier Giuseppe Conte has told his Brexit Task Force to focus urgently on ports, airports, customs, and the handling of food trade, as well as the status of Italians living in the UK.

Palazzo Chigi, the prime minister’s inner machine, is exploring what Italy can do under its own authority to defuse the stand-off with Britain. While this is relatively straightforward for issues such as citizens’ rights, it is unclear how it would work in trade and finance where the EU sets the rules.

Both the Lega and Five Star movement have Eurosceptic roots and are irked by the Brexit strategy of the European Commission, seen as rigid, ideological, and potentially explosive.

“We want the closest possible bilateral ties with the UK and certainly don’t agree with any idea of punishment. You are our customer,” said Claudio Borghi, the Lega’s economics spokesman and chairman of the budget committee in parliament.

“Unfortunately we are not in charge of Europe, at least not yet,” he said.
It is a perilous time for Italy. The economy is in a protracted recession. Risk spreads on its 10-year bonds are again nearing the threshold of 300 basis points, the level where trouble has begun in the past.
The country’s financial system depends on the City of London for global funding of its bond markets. “Great Britain is in a sense Europe’s investment banker,” said Confindustria, Italy’s business federation.
<snip>
“What worries us about Brexit is that exporters in the rest of the world will come in and undercut us. This is what happened after the Russia sanctions in 2014. The Turks grabbed our market share,” he said.
Coldiretti is concerned that suppliers in places such as South Africa, Kenya, or parts of Latin America will suddenly gain an edge in UK supermarkets.
If the UK were to opt for unilateral free trade to keep ports open in a no-deal scenario - as has been floated by Trade Secretary Liam Fox, at least as a temporary measure - it might lead to an irreversible loss of UK market share for Europe’s high-cost producers.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/busines...ilateral-brexit-deal-britain-economic-crisis/


Woops. There I go again, mixing people up. This time the two Donalds, Trump and Tusk. One is a rude, arrogant tweeter… and so is the other.
The EU must envy the Americans though. At least the latter get the opportunity to vote their Donald out in a couple of years. No such democratic process exists in the EU of course.

Coldiretti is defending the food exports to the UK
If there would be a no-deal and the WTO food tariffs for dairy of 35% would be chosen by the UK, the export of Parmesan is ofc in danger, the same with the 10% or so on the Prosecco, etc.
In a future customs union that danger is gone.
But in the deal of May, with an FTA future trade relation and no customs union, the italian food exports come under price pressure.

So what is it that this man want ?
that the UK stays in the EU. But that is not up to him and not up to the EU.

What remains of his statement is a blank-shot at the EU.
good for domestic purposes

 

[uppi]

I am really puzzled what exactly Italy is trying to sell when they fear being undercut by Kenya of all places.

 

[Hrothbern]

I am really puzzled what exactly Italy is trying to sell when they fear being undercut by Kenya of all places.

Kenyan exports:
Tea, coffee, sisal, pyrethrum, corn, and wheat are grown in the fertile highlands, one of the most successful agricultural production regions in Africa. Livestock predominates in the semi-arid savanna to the north and east. Coconuts, pineapples, cashew nuts, cotton, sugarcane, sisal, and corn are grown in the lower-lying areas.[46]
???
Fish ?, Meat ? Clothing ?
And ofc the former colonial ties between the UK and Kenya.

Puzzled as well

 

[really]

The EU must envy the Americans though. At least the latter get the opportunity to vote their Donald out in a couple of years. No such democratic process exists in the EU of course.

Tusk was elected by the European Council by a double majority. His term is shorter at 2.5 years and ends this Nov.
The UK voted for him afaik.

I am really puzzled what exactly Italy is trying to sell when they fear being undercut by Kenya of all places.

Fresh fruit and veg? Kenya does export food out of season here.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

I read last night that various fast food corporations are saying with high degree of certainty that brexit will so disrupt their supply lines that they are likely to be unable to serve food, and groceries are also saying with similar certainty that their supply line disruption is going to create vast areas of vacant shelving in their stores. Against this, politicians are saying "Well, we just know that won't happen. No particular reasoning or claim to better information than the principles involved have, but we know." This sounds very much more like "we hope not" than any sort of reliable statement.

Are you Brits worried about starving over this? Should we CFCers be assembling care packages to send to take care of our own?

 

[Traitorfish]

Are you Brits worried about starving over this?

With all these plump Tories cutting about the place? Not in the slightest.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

With all these plump Tories cutting about the place? Not in the slightest.

Not sure I'm following. Are you thinking that if worst comes to worst you can just carve up and serve the plump Tories? I think @Arakhor has stated that he is basically skin and bones as is. We should maybe send him a bunch of cheeseburgers or something, just in case.

 

[really]

People in the UK were ringing the police when KFC ran out of chicken while changing to a new distributor.

 

[innonimatu]

The referendum supporters continue talking about one like zombies, but there is no chance of a new referendum on brexit. Time and the question, glad to see that the british here have come to understand that. Now if only they lost their illusions of the EU as something friendly. It wasn't ever even to its member states. It's just an upper layer of privileged bureaucrats taking care of themselves and protecting the elites of each country in exchange for their support to the EU. But they are inevitably worse than the national layers, because more detached and unaccountable to the population.

The tories will manage to come out of this brexit drama looking good because many among the opposition have repeatedly sought to derail brexit despite having no hope of doing so. They will get blamed for what goes wrong, even though it was the government's incompetency that led to preparations not being done. They provide the government with the justification for failures: that there was a big fight column sabotaging proper preparations, demanding that some deal be struck even though the EU would offer no reasonable deal.

It's as if each political grouping in the UK is competing for the "most incompetent of all" award.

And no, the UK will not starve because of brexit. The one with effect of brexit will be accelerating the decomposition of the rest of the EU. If it leaves without a deal there will be deals made, country to country.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

The referendum supporters continue talking about one like zombies, but there is no chance of a new referendum on brexit. Time and the question, glad to see that the british here have come to understand that. Now if only they lost their illusions of the EU as something friendly. It wasn't ever even to its member states. It's just an upper layer of privileged bureaucrats taking care of themselves and protecting the elites of each country in exchange for their support to the EU. But they are inevitably worse than the national layers, because more detached and unaccountable to the population.

The tories will manage to come out of this brexit drama looking good because many among the opposition have repeatedly sought to derail brexit despite having no hope of doing so. They will get blamed for what goes wrong, even though it was the government's incompetency that led to preparations not being done. They provide the government with the justification for failures: that there was a big fight column sabotaging proper preparations, demanding that some deal be struck even though the EU would offer no reasonable deal.

It's as if each political grouping in the UK is competing for the "most incompetent of all" award.

And no, the UK will not starve because of brexit. The one with effect of brexit will be accelerating the decomposition of the rest of the EU. If it leaves without a deal there will be deals made, country to country.

So basically, we should add you to the "no knowledge of the subject, but certainly more deserving of being listened to than people who actually do move food around" crowd?

No one is saying that there is no way to make new arrangements in the long term. The issue is that people who are in a position to actually know are saying that the disruptions in the supply chain will, in fact, have tangible effects at the consumer level.

I live with a little known fact...there is a major arterial freeway into Los Angeles that carries hundreds of thousands of tons of food into the city every day. When that freeway is closed, briefly, due to snow, which happens not quite every winter, people carry on blithely about their business...but people who are informed, due to their involvement in the industry, know that if the storm is protracted and that road is closed for three days the distribution centers in the warehouse district downtown will run out of food, and that grocery stores count on deliveries on a daily basis from them or they will run out of food. Contingencies revolving around that freeway being outright destroyed by an earthquake are an absolute must in any emergency planning done in southern California.

There aren't these vast reservoirs in supply chains that allow for "oh, hey, well we are gonna work out some new deal with...well...somebody." That's a fantasy, and the people involved in that business know it.

 

[Kyriakos]

Perhaps this ?

There is word on the following cross-party initiative:
May's deal is amended with the condition that a new referendum is hold with the choice A. accept the May deal and B. Remain in the EU.
This referendum would be binding and have immediate effect, and I guess the EU will accept the delay for extending the Art 50 period.


Some people are enthusiast over this, but the hardcore no-deal Brexiteers, will ofc be against it (because of the Remain option) and I guess Corbyn will also be against it, for the same reason.

Such a ref would be about as fair as one with may deal and no deal leave as options

 

[Takhisis]

I read somewhere that a binding, immediate second referendum was being seriously considered.

This is impossible, not only at the organisational level, i.e. there's no such thing as a Royal Referenda Office (somebody page Plotinus, show him my proper use of Latin plural in these fora) and also the legal theory behind the British Parliament is that there is no limit on what it can legislate, so all referenda are technically advisory.

As French troops mass on the Italian border, so to speak, Italy appears to be one of the few countries in the EU with some common sense.
Why does it take people from Lega and Five5star (of all institutions) to point out what damage those two clowns Jean Claude Drunker and Donald Trump are doing to the process of Brexit?

From the Telegraph:

I stopped reading at this point.

So basically, we should add you to the "no knowledge of the subject, but certainly more deserving of being listened to than people who actually do move food around" crowd?

Remember that he says ‘Mueller has no proof’.

 

[Hrothbern]

May has formally rejected the Corbyn offer for a Customs Union with a letter to Corbyn.

Theresa May has effectively ruled out Labour’s ideas for a compromise Brexit plan, shutting off another potential route to a deal as business groups warned that with less than 50 days to go the departure process was entering the “emergency zone”.
The prime minister’s formal response to Jeremy Corbyn’s proposal, in a letter to the Labour leader, stressed her objections to keeping the UK in some form of customs union, saying this would prevent the UK making its own trade deals.
But in an apparent renewed bid to win over wavering Labour MPs, May made a concession on environmental and workers’ rights, discounting Corbyn’s idea of automatic alignment with EU standards but suggesting instead a Commons vote every time these change.

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...ave-another-say-by-end-of-month-says-minister
In the link the letter

May offers to allign the UK with the current EU standards on environmental and workers rights... but not on health and food standards (which she needs for US food imports).
May also does not want a permanent EU allignment to environmental and workers standards, keeping open a slow diverge.

I understand also that May has no clear position on backing the one-nation conservatives of the Tories and the hard-Brexiteers Tories (who want a max liberalised Singapore FTA).
This Tory divide is important when it would come to making choices after a cliff edge no-deal, and atm two so called "After" scenarios are being prepared.
A choice now by May would risk split-up of the Tories.
If May would have backed the Customs Union proposal of Corbyn, the Tory party would risk that split-up as well.

So... as the article states: nothing much happening except the clock running down and more pressure for the showdown at the end of Feb if not end of March.

 

[Kyriakos]

It is why hipster pro-eu time travellers coined the term "may day".