Someone should have advised
these germans to blamed brexit too. "among other reasons", why not brexit, so convenient an excuse.
It's the reverse-EU: anything wrong was blamed nn the EU, now anything wrong will be blamed on brexit. I wonder if another global financial crash will be blamed on brexit...
Brexit will for a long time be a serious factor.
When I walk the dog and there has been a storm there are twigs and small branches everywhere. When it is a real storm the toppled trees are on the news.
Being ultimately better than your competitors is often surviving that really nasty storm where others do not, from structural or business model effects or just some tough luck on top.
Airlines have roughly 20-30% kerosene cost. When the oil price was $100 a barrel up to 2015, the UK airlines suffered less because the Pound was strong at $1.60 and the Euro weak at $1.10-$1.15. That German carrier survived but had according to that article this year a lot of maintenance bad luck (....), and probably little reserves left. Since a year or so the oil price is high again at $75. The Pound down from Brexit to $1.30: a double whammy, if not a triple whammy, because UK people going on holiday are also hit by the weak Pound, less money to spend. and the price battle between UK carriers only more ferocious.
When after the GFC the Swiss Franc suddenly became much stronger, it was a huge blow for the Swiss industry: their export products were suddenly 20% more expensive and customers had either prices in their currency or were not prepared to pay the price increase. A lot of costly efforts were done by the Swiss central bank to mitigate.
But most companies, from typical family owned Mittelstand (the small-medium) to big companies companies had reserves, were solid healthy, and could ride the storm, meanwhile making a race on efficiency.
Brexit is just like the trade wars of Trump and the oil price, and so many other big factors for specific industries, like the diesel wind down... Brexit is a storm factor and the weak and unlucky go down or choose to stop because they have no, or cannot afford to have justified hope.
And.... family owned business, long enough after the start up, is often much more resilient to storms. Much less domino effect risk.
I'll probably be accused by someone of "conspiracy theorizing", but I feel I must point out that people do not place their signature or their age on the votes they cast. These are not statistics on facts (vote results), they are poll-based extrapolations. Necessarily with a larger margin for error than any election forecasts, because the people doing these pretty graphics must divide their limited dataset into many smaller groups. It is not the same to extrapolate from 1000 possible voters on their choices between between 3 or 4 options, or to do so when you ask them about (or sort them into) 30 or 40 options. Some of the subgroups may be so small as to mere change during the selection process distorting the poll significantly.
And this is not brexit-specific, it's about all the polls used in political discussions. They're useful, but a lot of salt is advised.
Please take this uncertainty into account when repeating "xx% of group abc voted for xyz". Just because someone published a claim that it was so.
In general yes.
There have been done meanwhile so many different polls on this effect, that I think the conclusion that the effect is there is solid.
I wonder BTW whether it is custom in the UK to do exit-polls. Poll directly the voter with a set of detailed questions when the vote was done. Such info at proper scale for reliability is important for a democracy to understand what happened and why.
