Coronavirus Ε

It may look like it came out of nowhere but it didn't: Since july we had steadily but slowly growing numbers...then in late september it accellerated a lot. Most experts, including the science task force that was created to advise the government warned of this outcome several weeks ago. Due to federalism, the national governement did nothing and referred to the cantonal governments who then in turn did nothing. As a result precious weeks were wasted with no action at all. Even now, they decided to wait some more. Zürich today decided to keep allowing events with > 1000 attending.
Sounds like Trump and republican governors are in charge there too.
 
Does all that palaver mean hitting the virus with a hockey stick?
 
Hm, currently the highest death ratio is a bit over 1/1000 people.
At what ratio do you think the loss actually creates mass need for jobs/restructuring of the market after the virus becomes controllable?
Maybe considerably less than 1/100? (eg 1/300 etc)
 
Sounds like Trump and republican governors are in charge there too.
you're not far off. While parliament has a center left majority since last year the seven seats of the federal council are filled with 2x SVP 2x FDP 2x SP and 1x CVP.

SVP can be most closely compared to your GOP, while FDP is more like your libertarians. Together they are able to block stricter reactions. Especially one SVP councilor last weekend announced that we should just stop with all that hysteria :ack:
 
Italy is back, +19k
France +42k
Fasten your seat belts, comrades.

It might be a rebuilding year, but we're coming back. Count on that, [evil laugh]!

Seriously, the government is tiptoeing around it, but I smell another full lockdown in the wind.
 
Here it was mandated that all should wear masks outside. Up to now it was only for indoors (eg supermarkets).
I think it should first be established if it matters in open space, supposing people keep their distance. Also if it makes sense to wear a mask but not keep your distance (as when inside buses).
 
on masks
I understand that there is a small percentage of people who, when infected, shed relatively to average, enormous amounts of virusses including virusses in aerosols. Also outdoors or in very big buildings with high ceilings.
The superspreaders in superspreading events.
If only these people would wear masks the R would be much lower. But as we do not know who will be such a superspreader masks for everybody will help.
Caps at max people of events are also effective in preventing superspreading settings.
 
Healthcare and healthcare policy is largely managed at the provincial level, there's a wide variation between provinces.

Atlantic provinces have had almost no cases since May and require quarantine for inter-provincial travel.

Smart people, another big country that is capable of doing what it takes to solve this problem! But it does require coordination between all states to control the threat in the whole country and put things back together. One state with bad government can be a spoiler for that.

Seriously, the government is tiptoeing around it, but I smell another full lockdown in the wind.

Everyone is smelling that in Europe. But it would require our politicians to explain themselves, admit their strategy over the last 6 months was wrong and a failure. They don't want to! And so long as they refuse to admit that, they can't put forth an alternative strategy.

These "lock-downs to flatten the curve" no longer persuade anyone as a solution and therefore won't have enough public support to work even as well as they did back in spring. The goal must be different from what is already shown not to work: a goal to really solve the problem, that alone will draw enough enthusiasm for effective public compliance. It can be done, the asian countries got rid of the virus over winter and spring. It would have been easier in the summer but can be done now. The problem is the political blockade against even trying it.

As things stand if the politicians are not seriously scared and kicked they will rather keep trying to walk everyone silently into complete disaster. People will keep dying or beings scared of. The economy in these "advanced countries" is mostly about services that are being abandoned due to the virus, will collapse with millions thrown into poverty and governments doing their old dog trick of "austerity". And because now most people are too cynical to deliver that kick in regular elections which anyway are not available immediately, the only hope to stop this continental walking into disaster, I'm sorry to say, seems to be political violence targeted at the top, at government, breaking out soon in some country and scaring them all into changing course.
My guess though is sleepwalking into disaster will continue. Europeans lost that in these circumstances valuable habit.

Thus might be predection thread stuff, but because it is about the virus I'll say it here: lockdowns without a clear narrative on solving the crisis (a path to going back to "normal", even if only locally) will fail. There will not be enough public cooperation this time without a narrative that is different from the failed one of last time, "flatten the curve until the mythical vaccine". The vaccine does not seem any nearer. Too many people do not have the time to wait another 6 moths or a year for that without seeing the structure of their lives collapsing.
 
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I think this government is starting to take random measures. For example it also banned leaving your house from half past midnight to 5 in the morning.
Ok, the reasoning was that this would prevent "youths" from going to parties. But I tend to go out to buy some food at those hours, cause I am pretty nocturnal. If they only care about youths etc, they should have an age limit.

Having to wear a mask in open space (just to go for a walk) for months... also is overkill. We didn't have that half a year ago, when supposedly everything worked fine and there were no dead for a month.
 
It's random measures now in an attempt to look like they're doing something. Then the plan is declare failure, claim they've tried and it was impossible to get right, and tell you live (die) with it. And hope you're too tired to point out that they're lying.
 
Yet another pathetic moment happened in Argentina yesterday (Friday) when the idiot-president announced the something-or-other-th extension of the quarantine (ducentoquarantine in practice) and said that he didn't remember exactly when the current term of it would expire, but whether it was that same Friday or today or Sunday or whatever we should just add 14 more days.

:thumbsdown:
 
Yet another pathetic moment happened in Argentina yesterday (Friday) when the idiot-president announced the something-or-other-th extension of the quarantine (ducentoquarantine in practice) and said that he didn't remember exactly when the current term of it would expire, but whether it was that same Friday or today or Sunday or whatever we should just add 14 more days.

:thumbsdown:

Ready to leave then?
 
The ports of the air are closed, and whither should I go?
 
America has reported something like 8 million cases and .2 million deaths. That’s a mortality rate of 2.5% just based off those numbers. Is it really 2.5%, or are cases being undercounted, not tested, or what?

I raise the question because a Forbes article mentioned some 8 million cases, and I thought given the numbers the way they are, it sounds to me like cases are not being registered at some point.

The rate now here in Japan is 1.7% based on counted statistics, which makes me think they’re undercounting them here too. I’m not saying it’s intentional, but I don’t see how you could get around it unless you tested the whole 126 million people here simultaneously and with 100% accuracy, neither of which are plausible.
 
America has reported something like 8 million cases and .2 million deaths. That’s a mortality rate of 2.5% just based off those numbers. Is it really 2.5%, or are cases being undercounted, not tested, or what?

I raise the question because a Forbes article mentioned some 8 million cases, and I thought given the numbers the way they are, it sounds to me like cases are not being registered at some point.

The rate now here in Japan is 1.7% based on counted statistics, which makes me think they’re undercounting them here too. I’m not saying it’s intentional, but I don’t see how you could get around it unless you tested the whole 126 million people here simultaneously and with 100% accuracy, neither of which are plausible.

I'm guessing they miss a lot of cases so the mortality rate is lower.
1% seems average.
 
When the dust is settled it will also need to be looked at from the lens of each healthcare system; did America’s patchwork system result in having fewer people seek or get the treatment they need? I would think the difference will ultimately be statistically significant.
 
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