Coronavirus: awaiting for the new wave

[Ferocitus]

Yeah it's pretty clear it's politics driving the bad decisions, which is pretty regrettable. Especially for the people that has made effectively homeless.

And if those people are not cared for then (I hope!) there will be political repercussions.

 

[Arwon]

There won't be, Australians are ultracops

 

[Ferocitus]

There won't be, Australians are ultracops

What have you done with the real Arwon and why are you wearing a kaftan and love-beads while shouting: "Kill the Cop in your Head!

 

[Zelig]

The only way the Olympics are going to be possible is with a severely reduced, almost athletes-only setup, and run in the sort of sealed bubble the NBA ran in last season. Or if Japan vaccinates everyone on arrival.

Pro sports in North America are trundling along without bothering with bubbles.

 

[Arwon]

Yeah and they keep having to cancel or postpone games or omit players because of infections and just generally be really flexible along a season spanning several months.

Olympics can't really afford to take that risk with the tight time-bounding of the event, and everything being the cutthroat knockout equivalent of playoffs in a regular domestic sport league.

 

[Ferocitus]

Don't like the chances of an Olympics in Japan any time soon, despite what the organisers are saying.

Support for Olympics hits new low in Japan: poll
11 Jan. 2020

Support for holding the coronavirus-postponed Tokyo Olympics this summer has hit a new low in Japan, a poll
found Sunday as the country battles a third wave of infections.

Just over 80 percent of those asked by Kyodo news agency said the huge global event should be cancelled or
postponed again -- a jump from around 60 percent in a December 6 survey by the same outlet.

Kyodo said the survey asked 1,041 participants nationwide, who were selected by random dialling.

Tokyo 2020 organizers have said another delay is out of the question and are insisting the Games will go ahead
despite a state of emergency declared in the greater Tokyo area over a surge in COVID-19 cases.

https://japantoday.com/category/sports/support-for-olympics-hits-new-low-in-japan-poll

 

[amadeus]

The goal of the state of emergency lite in Tokyo is 500 infections/day. Which totally won’t backfire on them because that’s obviously sustainable when this virus is easily spread.

 

[The_J]

Seems there's no a new outbreak in China.
I've wondered for the past months if the Chinese government is fudging the numbers. I've been mostly leaning to "no", since the Chinese pharma companies have basically said that they need to go abroad for their vaccine trials, because there are not enough new infections at home. That there's now an openly discussed outbreak shows more that the recent months have been real.
Unless it's a very good strategy to fudge the numbers.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

Distribution of the vaccines in the US has been a massive problem and the Trump administration has (once again) tossed the problem to the states without any coordination. Every state is trying to prioritize vaccines to certain groups such as healthcare workers and the elderly, but without federal guidance and resources, most states are failing. As a result, vaccines are piling up in freezers across the country.

In response, the Trump administration is pushing to delay administering the second dose to people, on the theory that it would be better to get it to more people from those groups. This is stupid - as you'd expect from Trump's team - because the vaccine likely does not work at all without the second dose and because this does not help in any way get the vaccines into more arms, which is the root problem. Kind of hard to administer more first doses when you're beauracracy is failing to identify and administer doses to the privileged groups in the first place.

A better solution is to open up a lottery to the general public if you can't coordinate prioritizing certain groups.

In any case this clusterfrak was predicted months ago and Trump being Trump ran headlong into it. Further, the GOP for months resisted negotiating aid packages which would have addressed this planning failure in the Senate.

Also this isn't goddamn rocket science jfc

 

[red_elk]

In response, the Trump administration is pushing to delay administering the second dose to people, on the theory that it would be better to get it to more people from those groups. This is stupid - as you'd expect from Trump's team - because the vaccine likely does not work at all without the second dose and because this does not help in any way get the vaccines into more arms, which is the root problem. Kind of hard to administer more first doses when you're beauracracy is failing to identify and administer doses to the estimated groups in the first place.

A better solution is to open up a lottery to the general public if you can't coordinate prioritizing certain groups.

I remember there was idea to use one-dose adenovirus vaccine and distribute it to twice more people. With Russian vaccine it supposedly works, but with reduced efficacy (something about 80% IIRC). It was considered a radical measure though, to be used in extreme scenario. And I don't know what kind of two-dose vaccine is used in America, and whether it will work in one dose.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

The Trump administration's Warp Speed vaccine trials failed to do any testing on one dose vaccine distribution so we aren't sure if it would work or not. But the limited evidence we have suggests that immune response goes back o zero within 2-3 weeks of the first dose without a second dose being given. This is for the mRNA vaccines, unclear about other types.

 

[MrCynical]

In response, the Trump administration is pushing to delay administering the second dose to people, on the theory that it would be better to get it to more people from those groups. This is stupid - as you'd expect from Trump's team - because the vaccine likely does not work at all without the second dose and because this does not help in any way get the vaccines into more arms, which is the root problem. Kind of hard to administer more first doses when you're beauracracy is failing to identify and administer doses to the privileged groups in the first place.

The UK government is already trying this irresponsible idea with the Pfizer vaccine. Snag is there's little data on the effects of delaying or omitting the second shot, and what little there is suggests a major drop in efficacy. We shouldn't be messing around with the dosage schedule like this.

 

[innonimatu]

The goal of the state of emergency lite in Tokyo is 500 infections/day. Which totally won’t backfire on them because that’s obviously sustainable when this virus is easily spread.

Beware, you forgot the /sarc warning!

The Trump administration's Warp Speed vaccine trials failed to do any testing on one dose vaccine distribution so we aren't sure if it would work or not. But the limited evidence we have suggests that immune response goes back o zero within 2-3 weeks of the first dose without a second dose being given. This is for the mRNA vaccines, unclear about other types.

And many other countries, including all those in this dysfunctional US copycat I live in, just accepted those tests as enough to move forward. Other types were also not really tested for dosage, as can be seen from the fact that the Oxforf vaccine ended up using a lower dose out oc accident: they accidentally injected a lower dose in some of the participants and the outcome in that statistically small cohort seems to be better.

 

[innonimatu]

In response, the Trump administration is pushing to delay administering the second dose to people, on the theory that it would be better to get it to more people from those groups. This is stupid - as you'd expect from Trump's team - because the vaccine likely does not work at all without the second dose and because this does not help in any way get the vaccines into more arms, which is the root problem. Kind of hard to administer more first doses when you're beauracracy is failing to identify and administer doses to the privileged groups in the first place.

And I'm afraid you can't count on things improving with the changeover there:

President-elect Joe Biden plans to release almost all vaccine doses immediately, a spokesman said Friday, a change from the Trump administration’s strategy of holding half of the supply in reserve for second doses.
“The President-Elect believes we must accelerate distribution of the vaccine while continuing to ensure the Americans who need it most get it as soon as possible,” Biden spokesman TJ Ducklo said in a statement. “He supports releasing available doses immediately, and believes the government should stop holding back vaccine supply so we can get more shots in Americans' arms now.”
The Trump administration pushed back on Biden's announcement, saying that their plan is to release more doses "as manufacturing further stabilizes," and that they already are releasing as many vaccines as they can while ensuring the availability of second doses later on.

 

[Zelig]

Well this wasn’t predictable.

COVID-19 contact-tracing data is fair game for police, Singapore says

 

[Takhisis]

In Argentina summer camps are to proceed smoothly. For the uninformed, summer activities are day-only, i.e. you mix children for various activities in a gym or maybe a park and then send them home to share their viruses with their older relatives.

But schools are to remain closed this year.

As a teacher, I have to say that the education minister should be banished from the realm.

 

[innonimatu]

In Argentina summer camps are to proceed smoothly. For the uninformed, summer activities are day-only, i.e. you mix children for various activities in a gym or maybe a park and then send them home to share their viruses with their older relatives.

But schools are to remain closed this year.

As a teacher, I have to say that the education minister should be banished from the realm.

Hey if schools are closed there thing it could worse: here mandatory public schooling is supposed to go on despite a "new lockdown" being decreed because we have more virus than ever. The PM keeps saying that "scientific advise shows that schools are not infection sites".

Today the godson of my country's last corporatist (fascist for the politically simple) dictator, who is now president, got covid. All candidates to this months presidential election, who have been debating him on TV mask-less, are now in quarantine. A week ago the dear president had been in contact wuith a known infected aide but, being important, the health authorities assured him that no prophylactic isolation was required of him.
In the meanwhile the international airports are open to anyone with a scrap of paper claiming a negative test done in the past day, but citizens are forbidden from traveling to the next town "except for unavoidable work or emergencies" because "mobility must be reduced".
We're a banana republic, european version. There's 27 of us, or near enough, plus a few more outside the big house.

Edit: I was thinking he had managed to get himself infected again, but I misremembered, he had evaded it back in spring.

 

[sendos]

The goal of the state of emergency lite in Tokyo is 500 infections/day. Which totally won’t backfire on them because that’s obviously sustainable when this virus is easily spread.

And I hear there are snowstorms in Japan too on top of that. Stay warm, @amadeus .

 

[caketastydelish]

 

[thetrooper]

Seems there's no a new outbreak in China.
I've wondered for the past months if the Chinese government is fudging the numbers. I've been mostly leaning to "no", since the Chinese pharma companies have basically said that they need to go abroad for their vaccine trials, because there are not enough new infections at home. That there's now an openly discussed outbreak shows more that the recent months have been real.
Unless it's a very good strategy to fudge the numbers.

China fudging the numbers? Nah, can't be true.

Spoiler :

Norway; 89 deaths per 1 million.
China; 3 deaths per 1 million.

Somehow easier to contain 1450 million people in China than 5 million people in Norway. Amirite?