As I think were all aware, the activity of OT has been declining for quite a while. Back in early March, I decided to quantify the decline. I forgot about it until coming across a thread on ths subject in IALS, and I finally got around to putting the data into Excel and charting it today.
I went to page 10 of OT, then page 20, and so on at 10-page intervals all the way to the beginning. I wrote down the date of the last post in the last thread on each of these pages, which gave me a measure of how long it took to generate 450 threads in OT. I assumed that the thread creation rate is roughly equal to the thread abandonment rate (with a time delay, but Im ignoring that for now).
The results were pretty alarming. It now takes about 3 months to create 450 threads. By way of comparison, throughout the entire period from late 2002 to early 2008, the average was consistently about 3 weeks. It then tailed off slowly but steadily over the past 7 years. OT is now as inactive as it's been since 2001, only a year after the site was established in its current form. Our activity has declined by a factor of more than 4, from 20/day at the beginning of 2008 to less than 5/day at the beginning of this year, and is probably still falling. It is now as inactive as its ever been since late 2001, when the forum was a year old in its current form.
Heres are rough thread creation averages (threads per day) for 2007-14 and a chart of OT activity from January 2007 to March 2015. I havent yet entered earlier data into Excel; what I have in my notebook shows a rapid climb to mid-2002 and a roughly steady plateau lasting to early 2008.
2007 20.08
2008 18.51
2009 13.64
2010 11.57
2011 9.51
2012 7.71
2013 6.20
2014 4.84
There are several things to discuss here. Ill throw out some possible questions:
This thread is entirely my idea and isnt official in any way. Discuss!
I went to page 10 of OT, then page 20, and so on at 10-page intervals all the way to the beginning. I wrote down the date of the last post in the last thread on each of these pages, which gave me a measure of how long it took to generate 450 threads in OT. I assumed that the thread creation rate is roughly equal to the thread abandonment rate (with a time delay, but Im ignoring that for now).
The results were pretty alarming. It now takes about 3 months to create 450 threads. By way of comparison, throughout the entire period from late 2002 to early 2008, the average was consistently about 3 weeks. It then tailed off slowly but steadily over the past 7 years. OT is now as inactive as it's been since 2001, only a year after the site was established in its current form. Our activity has declined by a factor of more than 4, from 20/day at the beginning of 2008 to less than 5/day at the beginning of this year, and is probably still falling. It is now as inactive as its ever been since late 2001, when the forum was a year old in its current form.
Heres are rough thread creation averages (threads per day) for 2007-14 and a chart of OT activity from January 2007 to March 2015. I havent yet entered earlier data into Excel; what I have in my notebook shows a rapid climb to mid-2002 and a roughly steady plateau lasting to early 2008.
2007 20.08
2008 18.51
2009 13.64
2010 11.57
2011 9.51
2012 7.71
2013 6.20
2014 4.84
Spoiler Chart of thread creation rate :

There are several things to discuss here. Ill throw out some possible questions:
- What is your opinion of the decline in OT activity?
- Why is this happening, in your opinion? Feel free to mention any possible factors, including moderation as long as the discussion is general and mentions no specific cases.
- Does it bother you that the forum isnt as active as it used to be, or do you prefer a more sedate posting rate?
- Is this a site-wide phenomenon?
- Do you have any suggestions for slowing or reversing this trend?
- Did I pick a useful measure of OT activity?
This thread is entirely my idea and isnt official in any way. Discuss!