Election 2024 Part III: Out with the old!

[Samson]

More about the hack:

The campaign cited a Microsoft report released on Friday about alleged hackers with ties to the Iranian government who “sent a spear-phishing email in June to a high-ranking official on a presidential campaign from the compromised email account of a former senior adviser”.

Everyone who cares about their email security should be using PGP to secure their emails, at least signing all of them if not encrypting them. This should not happen.

 

[AdrienIer]

So what is the latest on the battleground states polling? Any new numbers?

There was an Arizona +3, Pennsylvania (+2), Wisconsin (+3, +4, -1) and Michigan (+4) for Harris

 

[amadeus]

Yeah, well BJ doesn't understand the nomenclature.

I agree with you with regards to your post, but my point is that the number doesn’t matter trying to score politically.

Prattling off, numbers are confusing. 34 counts of what? You don’t want to draw too much attention to it because then people are focused on the details, and the attack is supposed to be nuance-free, not get people to think.

If she uses it at all, it should be something that plays to her strengths and not his weaknesses.

 

[Gorbles]

I like that some folk are pretending stump speeches aren't a thing that exists just because it's a Republican attack line.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

I like that some folk are pretending stump speeches aren't a thing that exists just because it's a Republican attack line.

Electric boats, sharks and the late great Hannibal Lector.

 

[Lexicus]

Also somewhat interestingly, Joe Rogan is evidently supporting Kennedy. I wonder if you could fairly say Rogan represents a subculture. Or a counterculture. Or a countercultural subculture.

Regardless, it's probably fewer votes for Trump.

Joe Rogan saying he supports RFK is a point of evidence in favor of what I've said all along: RFK takes more votes from Trump than from the Democrats.

 

[Sommerswerd]

Joe Rogan saying he supports RFK is a point of evidence in favor of what I've said all along: RFK takes more votes from Trump than from the Democrats.

I thought everyone was saying Kennedy was taking more votes from Biden... that it was part of the point of his candidacy. I also remember some analysis that it was a wash between Trump and Biden. If you were giving a different analysis, way back I want to read that, because I missed it. I've gone back and forth on my thinking about Kennedy, but I don't think I've ever been that confident on how he affects the race. I could be misremembering... I may have to go check the tape.

 

[Sommerswerd]

Electric boats, sharks and the late great Hannibal Lector.

Hey, don't slander Electric Boats... they're a keystone business around these parts.

 

[Narz]

Joe Rogan saying he supports RFK is a point of evidence in favor of what I've said all along: RFK takes more votes from Trump than from the Democrats.

He should get Walz on, his #1 issue as far as I can tell is weed (tied maybe w dmt) and Walz actually legalized in his state (Harris claims she wants to federally legalize but who knows)

 

[Lexicus]

I thought everyone was saying Kennedy was taking more votes from Biden... that it was part of the point of his candidacy. I also remember some analysis that it was a wash between Trump and Biden. If you were giving a different analysis, way back I want to read that, because I missed it. I've gone back and forth on my thinking about Kennedy, but I don't think I've ever been that confident on how he affects the race. I could be misremembering... I may have to go check the tape.

I don't think I've made the argument on CFC before, but I have made it on social media and IRL, but it's mostly two points, one vibes-based and one logic-based. Not really rising to the level of 'analysis' in either case. Anyway,

1) vibes, RFK is way more similar to Trump. There's vague conspiracy-pill overlap. RFK and Trump are also both horrible rich old sociopaths who treat women like dogshit. There really isn't any vibes overlap with Democrats here. The last time the Democrats were vaguely conspiracy-pilled was like the 2008 cycle. Since then they've been resolute normies.

2) what is peeling leftish people away from the Dems in this cycle is Gaza, more than any other issue. RFK's position on Israel is plus israeli que les Israelis which means people unwilling to vote for Harris due to Gaza will look elsewhere, to Stein or West or one of the sectarian left parties like PSL.

I will say I think this more now that Harris is in the race instead of Biden; when it was Trump/Biden I still thought RFK was pulling more from Trump than from Biden, but my prediction now is that RFK pulls almost entirely from Trump (and from voters who would never vote for a D or R anyway).

 

[Voidwalkin]

resolute normies

I never saw him landing for that reason. Opposition to conspiracy theories became a core part of Dem identity during the pandemic.

It was already trending that way for the past decade, mostly due to Republican attacks on climate science. Covid really accelerated it.

The brain worm thing, combined with the conspiracy theories, it's too distasteful for most Dems to consider.

 

[Narz]

I agree the dems have become very by-the-book, if government/FDA/DEA/mainstream media says it it must be true & if you disagree you're a nutball. This has been a major issue driving many former lefties away. Lefties used to be the rebels (not just in the 60's & 70's but even during the GWB era), now they're the squares which is why they underestimated Trump so much in 2016 (he's too outthere/illogical/etc no one is that dumb, turns out yeah actually plenty of people are, and plenty more just want to rock the boat & stick it to the smarmys).

The growing trend both in US & worldwide is mistrust of power (government, media, 'official' stories, etc) but democratic politicians haven't got the memo.

The right is like "yeah, we'll take your poor, your weary, your lil' bit crazy, your not-with-the-times, we don't care, we accept you".

 

[Sommerswerd]

Today Trump accused Harris of repeating the same speech over and over again.

Accusing a politician on the campaign trail of giving the same speech over and over is like accusing a Broadway show of giving the same show every night... its like accusing water of being wet all the time. The whole point of a campaign stump speech is to give it over and over to a bunch of different audiences so everyone gets a chance to hear it.

 

[Sommerswerd]

I did. Lex and Sommer have covered it. Sommer then got clever about asking it immediately again once it was answered. This is tedious and I'm bored by it. You all are being boorish.

Wait, wait, one more, just one more... Its not political stances that are causing/leading to it... the stances are personal... physical... you might say the stance of a particular body part... ...

OK [/boorishness] you can go back to being bored. Go watch the USA women bail us out (again) in basketball (hopefully )

I am allowed to congratulate my Democrat countrymen on the results of thier political and policy victories. We have to share the space, credit where credit is due.

There's a shortage of perfect compliments in this world... T'would be a pity to damage yours.

 

[Birdjaguar]

Yeah, well BJ doesn't understand the nomenclature. Getting convicted on 34 counts in one trial is once convicted. If this were not a politically motivated prosecution it would be one count and a slap on the wrist, if that. There is no chance this travesty will survive appeal, but Merchan may well jail Trump as political mischief regardless of the unnecessary risk to a former President and candidate. If Trump were to be injured or killed, they'll shrug in public and celebrate in private. That's my opinion. Also, in my opinion the character of the characters in these witch hunts is despicable from the White House and Department of Justice down to the NY personnel in the courtroom. I know that Trump is a bigger man than his persecutors, but it will be necessary to clean house after the election.

I'm sorry, but you do not understand the law. Trump was convicted 34 different times. Each count is a conviction and the jury could have decided to convict him on anywhere from zero to 34 times. They chose 34 times. A typical plea deal often reduces the counts to one charge.

Trump score card:

• 34 time convicted felon
• 1 time convicted for sexual assault
• 1 time convicted for business fraud
• Indicted under the espionage act for mishandling Top Secret documents
• And lets not forget his abuse of the Trump foundation money for personal use or the Trump University fraud convictions
• I also think I read somewhere he tried to over throw the 2020 election results with fake news and an attack on the Capitol.

Did any of those not happen?

"I know that Trump is a bigger man than his persecutors..." Yeah, he is obese.

 

[Birdjaguar]

I agree with you with regards to your post, but my point is that the number doesn’t matter trying to score politically.

Prattling off, numbers are confusing. 34 counts of what? You don’t want to draw too much attention to it because then people are focused on the details, and the attack is supposed to be nuance-free, not get people to think.

If she uses it at all, it should be something that plays to her strengths and not his weaknesses.

You miss the point. In a live debate reminding Trump of his failures and convictions repeatedly will drive him nuts. When he gets agitated he is more likely to say stupid things he shouldn't. Trump has used the tactic repeatedly against his opponents. Turnabout is fair play. Democrats watching will love it and Trumpers watching will claim foul, but be reminded of who they support.

 

[Farm Boy]

Wait, wait, one more, just one more... Its not political stances that are causing/leading to it... the stances are personal... physical... you might say the stance of a particular body part... ...

OK [/boorishness] you can go back to being bored. Go watch the USA women bail us out (again) in basketball (hopefully )

There's a shortage of perfect compliments in this world... T'would be a pity to damage yours.

Congratulations are not compliments.

You are of course correct on physical stances, but best to let you say it from the appropriate class, or we'll get another pause.

But yes, I expect your pride to at least hold up in a stiff breeze. We've accomplished a major policy goal of much of the nation.

I guess it's time to go back to those videos Formaldehyde used to love that show when you reduce the birth rates of social abominations the crime rates improve for the worthy. Moar funding!

 

[Core Imposter]

BJ, on one of your statements about the vote where you said that the vast majority is cast on election day, that was mistaken. Over 100 million votes were cast early in 2020. This is now the default voting method. Early voting begins in just over a month. There has been some talk about whether Harris can run out the clock, avoiding participation in the normal way. She certainly will be able to remain a cipher to many if not most voters because the turnstiles will begin clicking long before she can be traditionally vetted.

 

[tjs282]

How soon some people forget...

That there was a goddamn global pandemic raging throughout 2020. Which had been exacerbated in the US by the Orange Buffoon refusing to take it seriously for the first 6 months...

 

[Core Imposter]

Have you forgotten...

Have you forgotten the BLM riots to glorify the criminal George Floyd, the thug who held a loaded to the abdomen of a pregnant woman? Those the leftist riots in his name destroyed Chicago and other cities like Minneapolis. Have you forgotten, even as the national news media wants you to forget? It was Gov. Walz who let Minneapolis burn, and he took days and days to call out the National Guard as his aides worried if the guard was diverse enough to handle the riots.

Remember?

Can Harris and Walz Keep Hiding Who They Are? - John Kass

By John Kass Aug. 11, 2024 Are Kamala Harris and Tim Walz just too weird to win election in November? Or are they the two Democrats that America needs right now dammit, a special pair that have the unique ability to see what can be, unburdened by what has been? I just can’t say. I’m just a guy...

johnkassnews.com