If Trump is only looking at those with lots of political experience, it is probably a governor or senator.
Who are likely candidates?
Huckabee
?
?
Who are likely candidates?
Huckabee
?
?
Political Prediction Thread
- Thread starter Birdjaguar
- Start date
Cheetah
Deity
This VP talk scares me. Trump isn't a dangerous republican beneath his bolstering appearance, but if he selects a VP from the normal lot, I'd think his presidency will be just as bad as Bush's.
This should be fun
... Here goes:1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections. - False
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. - False
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. - False
4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign. - True
5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. - True
6. Long-term economy: Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. - True
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. - True
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. - True
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. - Maybe
10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. - Maybe
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. - True
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. - False
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. - False
Hmmm... Looking at it again, it looks more of these could be maybes than I originally thought (2, 4, 7 and 8 for example).
By way of contrast, I scored the 2008 election as 4 True. In any case I am sure there will be some disagreement on the scoring, and I am interested to hear what others scores are.
Rashiminos
Fool Prophet
Given the current streak of guanocular craziness, maybe Trump will put John Miller on the ticket.
This should be fun
1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections. - False
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. - False
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. - False
4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign. - True
5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. - True
6. Long-term economy: Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. - True
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. - True
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. - True
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. - Maybe
10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. - Maybe
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. - True
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. - False
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. - False
Hmmm... Looking at it again, it looks more of these could be maybes than I originally thought (2, 4, 7 and 8 for example).
By way of contrast, I scored the 2008 election as 4 True. In any case I am sure there will be some disagreement on the scoring, and I am interested to hear what others scores are.
1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections. - False
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. - False
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. - False
4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign. - True
5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. - True
6. Long-term economy: Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. - True
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. - True
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. - True
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. - True
10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. - Maybe
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. - True
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. - False
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. - False
My change is only to #9. I said True. Hillary may have a scandal problem, but it is more hers than the administration's. I accept your maybe regarding foreign affairs. Numbers 1, 2, 3, 12, and 13 are pretty fixed as False. If Obama comes out strong after the convention to support Hillary, rally the democrats and shout out about what he has done, 9, 10, and 11, can go the democrats's way. I think that 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8 are pretty solid True.
Rashiminos
Fool Prophet
California will Bern in the Democratic primary.
Why not?
1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections. - False
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. - False
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. - False
4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign. - True
5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. - False
6. Long-term economy: Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. - N/A
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. - True
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. - False
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. - False
10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. - Maybe
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. - False
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. -True
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. - False
By a charitable version of my estimation, 5 potential trues wouldn't be enough, so by Lichtman's method, Trump's victory would be predicted.
This should be fun
1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections. - False
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. - False
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. - False
4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign. - True
5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. - True
6. Long-term economy: Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. - True
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. - True
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. - True
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. - Maybe
10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. - Maybe
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. - True
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. - False
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. - False
Hmmm... Looking at it again, it looks more of these could be maybes than I originally thought (2, 4, 7 and 8 for example).
By way of contrast, I scored the 2008 election as 4 True. In any case I am sure there will be some disagreement on the scoring, and I am interested to hear what others scores are.
Why not?
1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections. - False
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. - False
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. - False
4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign. - True
5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. - False
6. Long-term economy: Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. - N/A
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. - True
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. - False
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. - False
10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. - Maybe
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. - False
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. -True
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. - False
By a charitable version of my estimation, 5 potential trues wouldn't be enough, so by Lichtman's method, Trump's victory would be predicted.
onejayhawk
Afflicted with reason
What are you talking about? Three of you have said that there is no significant 3rd party or independent candidate. Both parties are dealing with one. Trump took the nomination. Calling Sanders insignificant is ludicrous.
#4 Clearly false.
#6 I would like to see numbers. First impression is false.
#8 is false. Racial tensions are significantly worse than eight years ago.
#9 is iffy, but it attaches to the candidate, so I would call that false.
#10 is the big downfall. False. This is a defining issue of the administration and it is negative.
#11 dubious. I would say no. It hinges on the Iran deal.
#12 False. Lack of charisma is one of Hillary's defining characteristics.
#13 True. Charisma is all the Donald has going for him.
What was the original source?
J
#4 Clearly false.
#6 I would like to see numbers. First impression is false.
#8 is false. Racial tensions are significantly worse than eight years ago.
#9 is iffy, but it attaches to the candidate, so I would call that false.
#10 is the big downfall. False. This is a defining issue of the administration and it is negative.
#11 dubious. I would say no. It hinges on the Iran deal.
#12 False. Lack of charisma is one of Hillary's defining characteristics.
#13 True. Charisma is all the Donald has going for him.
What was the original source?
J
Rashiminos
Fool Prophet
Sanders isn't third party, and Johnson is not significant.
Hillary has charisma points for prominent female candidate (Sanders for social(ism/ justice)).
J, read the questions #9 and #13 carefully. You've mixed up the bolded part items.
#4: There is no 3rd party rebellion at this time; certainly that might change between now and November.
onejayhawk
Afflicted with reason
You're right on #13.
#9 is iffy. You have two scandals that taint this administration--Benghazi and the email server. Neither is really big, but both attach to the candidate. You cannot count that as an election positive.
Sanders is an independent. There are no two ways about that it. It's also a rebellion. Either way you emphasize it, that one is false.
I notice that you did not argue about #10 being a big black eye.
J
Rashiminos
Fool Prophet
Sanders is running as a Democrat for the nomination. A loss would not look good for a third-party general, plus it has an added downside of helping Trump win according to conventional wisdom. This is more of a case of the left deciding which foot is better to put forward rather than a race between leftists and Trump-lite at the far edge of the party. Hillary would not be a major regression from Obama, so this isn't the hill to die on over principle.
On a separate note, Republicans are a majority in the House.
onejayhawk
Afflicted with reason
Sanders is an independent and running against the establishment in Congress. It meets the standard. Trump does as well.
The Republican majority negates the mandate. If Trump wins big, which I expect, it will be hard to avoid bowing to a conservative mandate.
J
VP picks rarely bring much to the table but he really needs to pick a woman or a hispanic to attempt to get a few votes from those demographics. He's already got the white hick vote pretty much won. (any women besides Palin, of course)
Rashiminos
Fool Prophet
Sanders running in the Dem primary was probably conditioned on some quid pro quo with the establishment.
Had Sanders run as an independent in the primaries, it would have been a non story.
Lohrenswald
世界的 bottom ranked physicist
gay_Aleks
from the river to the sea, Palestine will be free!
Sanders wouldn't have gotten anywhere close had he not ran with the Democrats.
Do they not start campaigning at the same time, though, so as to benefit from the same length of media attention?
Lohrenswald
世界的 bottom ranked physicist
Well they obviously don't get that benefit
Rashiminos
Fool Prophet
In addition, sore loser and simultaneous registration laws would virtually cripple Sanders's chances running as an independent.
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