Political Prediction Thread

[onejayhawk]

Who are you complaining about here? The super-delegates or the media? People have known which way the SDs are lying for months now, so anyone who's paying the slightest attention already knows the score.

Both. Complaining about the media could be done daily. it's like holding in American football--always there if you want to mention it.

Bernie can reasonably claim the SD were already in Hillary's pocket before Iowa.

J

 

[Arakhor]

Well, if you do have a group of people whose votes are all but already known before the election, then that's what you get.

 

[Sommerswerd]

Who are you complaining about here? The super-delegates or the media? People have known which way the SDs are lying for months now, so anyone who's paying the slightest attention already knows the score.

My main complaint is with how the superdelegates handled this last big primary date. I am confident that Hillary was going to win California. They should have structured their announcements in such a way as to make sure Hillary was not announced as the winner before California, because now her victory is tainted and its going to be that much harder to get the Bernie supporters behind her.

It may be that they were cooperating strategically trying to make the CA result irrelevant out of fear that she would lose... or it may have been that some overeager delegates decided "screw it, lets just put her over the top right now." Either way, I would have preferred to see her "win" tonight rather than the way it happened.

 

[Arakhor]

Either way, I would have preferred to see her "win" tonight rather than the way it happened.

That probably would have been better, yes, but the media likes selling "news", whether it's premature, inaccurate or just plain wrong.

 

[Gori the Grey]

Hey, can we keep this thread for predictions? The "Democratic Nomination" thread seems the better place for a lot of the most recent posts.

I ask just because I mean to look back at this thread to see how well I and everybody else did with their predictions, and when I do, I don't want to have to page through lots of posts that aren't predictions.

 

[gay_Aleks]

With the crazy election that has been this year, I'm not blaming the SDs for their premature endorsements. And, I wouldn't count on any Bernie voters not voting for her, as I don't see anyone who is truly Democrat switching over from Bernie to Trump...considering the fact their policies (however little they may be) are diametrically opposed.

 

[onejayhawk]

This isn't even the election. That will likely be anticlimactic. The story will be in the down-ballot races.

J

 

[Sommerswerd]

This isn't even the election. That will likely be anticlimactic. The story will be in the down-ballot races.

J

Wait You're still going with the shocking, poll-number and conventional-wisdom-defying Trump landslide as your prediction aren't you? A major upset isn't anti climactic, its the definition of climactic, right?

 

[onejayhawk]

Wait You're still going with the shocking, poll-number and conventional-wisdom-defying Trump landslide as your prediction aren't you? A major upset isn't anti climactic, its the definition of climactic, right?

Not exactly. I am just saying the election will not be close. It also applies to the Trump loses in a landslide meme.

J

 

[Sommerswerd]

That seems like an evolution of your position to me... it also feels a little hedge-y for my taste, but thanks for the clarification.

 

[onejayhawk]

That seems like an evolution of your position to me... it also feels a little hedge-y for my taste, but thanks for the clarification.

Not so much a hedge as acknowledging a commonly held opinion. Your conventional-wisdom is for a blowout. Indeed, I know of no one predicting a tight race.

J

 

[Birdjaguar]

I predict that Trump will not endorse Ryan's Republican agenda that Ryan is unveiling.

 

[Rashiminos]

Next prediction: riots at the DNC.

 

[gay_Aleks]

It's been 48 years since the last one, so why not?

 

[onejayhawk]

Next prediction: riots at the DNC.

I assume you mean the Democratic National Convention. Democratic National Committee was an option, but it seems somewhat less likely.

J

 

[Bootstoots]

Prediction: Bernie reaches some sort of negotiated settlement to have several of his views put in the platform and to greatly reduce or eliminate superdelegates in future elections, stops pretending that lobbying superdelegates will go anywhere, and at least sort of drops out, making a reluctant endorsement of Clinton before the convention starts.

 

[onejayhawk]

I always had the impression that both Trump and Sanders never expected to get so far. Now that they are here, there is indecision what to do next.

J

 

[gay_Aleks]

Fortunately, Sanders has a rich choice beyond him...

...fade into obscurity.

 

[rah]

After November, he will.

 

[Bootstoots]

That is why put together a coalition, he must.