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How to Escape From the Russian Army​

Facing grim job prospects, a young Nepali signed up to join Russia’s military, which sent him to fight in Ukraine. His ordeal of combat, injury and escape turned into a tale worthy of Hollywood.

He didn’t have any documents.
Or money.
Or even a phone.

He was wrapped in bandages and 2,500 miles from his village in the Himalayas. But as he lay in a Russian military hospital, wounded in battle and surrounded by people speaking an alien language, Krishna Bahadur Shahi, an out-of-work engineer from Nepal who had committed the mistake of joining Moscow’s army, made a vow.
Somehow, he told himself, I’m getting home. “I had to get out,” he said in a recent interview. “I was even thinking of killing myself. I knew if I didn’t leave that hospital, they would send me back to the front and if they did that, well, there would be no possibility of returning alive.” Mr. Shahi had become ensnared in the shadowy, predatory underworld of human traffickers from Nepal who supply foreign fighters to the Russian army for its war in Ukraine. The Nepali government has been trying to shut down this pipeline. But the Russian military continues to rely on it, boosting combat power with impoverished young foreigners even though many, like Mr. Shahi, said they didn’t know they would be going into battle.

More and more are trying to get out. Mr. Shahi actually tried to escape twice. The first time he was ratted out by his own smugglers.

“Get me a cellphone. I pay you later.”​

Mr. Shahi is a thoughtful, talkative, fit 24-year-old civil engineer from a village in the Dailekh area of western Nepal. A university graduate, he faced grim job prospects after finishing a short-term contract building water tanks last year. Nepal is one of the poorest countries in Asia, and his parents, who are millet farmers, have little money. He joined the Russian army for one reason, he said: “For the money.” The New York Times corroborated Mr. Shahi’s story though medical records, photographs, text messages and official government documents.

Former Nepali soldiers in his village introduced him to human traffickers, he said, who quickly arranged for him to fly to Moscow. The deal looked solid. He’d pay the traffickers $5,600. In Russia he’d make $2,200 a month as a contract soldier, working as a guard at a base, he was told, not on the front line. Soon, he would get Russian citizenship as a reward for his service. As he prepared to leave for Russia, Mr. Shahi was stepping into a well-established web of middlemen and human traffickers that carries thousands of Nepalis each year to wealthier countries to work as maids, prostitutes, guards, nannies, cooks and soldiers.

Spoiler :

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Mr. Shahi, 24, teaching plumbing to students of the Nepal Deaf Residential Secondary School, in June. Credit...Uma Bista for The New York Times

“It’s a massive network,” said Kritu Bhandari, an anti-trafficking activist in Nepal’s capital, Kathmandu. She recently started a group called the Campaign to Save the Lives of Nepali Citizens in the Russian Army. She said the traffickers falsify education certificates to obtain visas; mislead recruits about what they will actually be doing; and run a wide syndicate of agents and accomplices that stretches from rural mountain villages to foreign capitals and the corridors of their own government. “The smugglers even have people at immigration in the Kathmandu airport,” she said.

The Russian government has not revealed much information about foreigners fighting for its army but news reports and interviews indicate that Nepal is one of the leading sources. Last year, Nepali police arrested a dozen people in connection with the illicit trafficking of youths to Russia, but the vast majority are never caught. Mr. Shahi arrived at a Russian army base a few hours’ drive east of Moscow in late October, he said. He provided photos of himself dressed in crisp camouflage and a hat with earflaps. In one picture, he’s holding a snowball.

The base was used for several hundred Nepali and a few Chinese recruits, he said. His first impressions, formed from the uniforms, the weapons, the training and the transport, was that the Russian army was centralized and organized. That impression would soon change. After two weeks of basic training — he had been promised three months, he said — he was told that he was going to a frontline position near Donetsk, a Ukrainian city occupied by Russian troops. Terrified and feeling betrayed, he tried to protest, saying that he wasn’t ready, and that he’d rather sit in jail. But that wasn’t an option.
“Even inmates there are taken to the front line,” he said. “I had to go.”

His frontline unit was a mix of Russian convicts and his fellow Nepalis. The “inmates,” as he called them, were heavy drinkers, coarse, unpredictable and covered in tattoos.
“They were not lovely,” he said sardonically. They constantly abused the Nepalis, he said, slapping them in the helmet, jabbing them with gunbutts and screaming at them in Russian. Mr. Shahi said he learned only a few words, including right and left, but sometimes, during the chaos of combat, he got those confused.

After an artillery barrage in December wiped out three of his friends, he decided to make a break for it. His wife, Alisha, back in Kathmandu, spoke to a Nepali living in Moscow who connected Mr. Shahi to traffickers working inside Russia. They put together a plan: He’d pay 4,000 euros, in installments, and the traffickers would arrange for a car to take him from Donetsk to Mariupol, and then to Moscow.
The traffickers make a cut either way — getting people in and getting them out.

[IMG width="660px" alt="In the image on the left, a young man with his left arm and right leg bandaged stands shirtless, with his trousers pulled down to his ankles. In the image on the right, a man in camouflage garb stands outdoors holding a snowball."]https://static01.nyt.com/images/202...pg?quality=75&auto=webp&disable=upscale[/IMG]
Left, Mr. Shahi after he was detained and partially stripped at Domodedovo airport in Moscow in January this year. Right, Mr. Shahi in November 2023 on a Russian army base.

Mr. Shahi and a small group of other Nepali deserters left their positions, linked up with a couple of taxis and made it to a half-destroyed apartment in Mariupol, perhaps the most ruined city in Ukraine and under Russian occupation. “The whole place looked doomed,” he said. They slept on the floor. But the traffickers, he said, didn’t have a good exit plan. Two of their group tried slipping across the border into Russia and were arrested at a checkpoint. When Mr. Shahi and the others hesitated to pay the next installment, “the dispute got nasty,” he said. A few days later, at 4 a.m., a squad of police officers showed up and arrested everybody. The traffickers, Mr. Shahi said, had shared the location of their hide-out and betrayed them.

They were arrested and beaten, he said. Mr. Shahi begged for mercy, saying they were just Nepali students trying to get to Europe. But while they were waiting in a Mariupol jail, the police received an electronic bulletin from the Russian army that they were looking for some Nepali deserters. The game was up. Russian soldiers hauled them back to a frontline position in Donetsk, this time a bunker filled with snow. He said they had almost no food or water. They ate ice. And cans of stringy, frozen beef, which was against Mr. Shahi’s Hindu religion. “But what was I supposed to do?” he said. Mr. Shahi and the half dozen Nepalis with him had no freedom to leave, retreat or do anything but stay in that bunker and fight. “I was a slave,” he said.

A few days later, Mr. Shahi said, the Russian commanders took them out and ordered them to storm a heavily fortified Ukrainian trench line. The Ukrainians saw them coming and lit up the forest with gunfire. Mr. Shahi was shot six times in his left arm and right leg.
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Mr. Shahi was shot several times in Ukraine, including multiple wounds to his left arm.Credit...Uma Bista for The New York Times

Disoriented, faint and losing lots of blood, he crawled to a first aid station. “I thought that was it,” he said. In a haze of pain, he met some other Nepali soldiers and gave them his A.T.M. card and his mobile phone and told them to call his family back home and tell them he was no more. But the Russians provided decent medical care, he said, and he was flown in an emergency chopper to a hospital in Rostov-on-Don, a Russian city near the Ukrainian border. Surgeons removed the bullets and patched up his wounds. Yet he fell into a depression so deep he contemplated suicide. “I knew that as soon as I got better, they’d send me back,” he said. “And I couldn’t face that.”

Desperate to talk to his wife, he signaled to a tall, skinny orderly who was cleaning his room that he wanted to use his phone. The Russian man quickly understood and when Mr. Shahi said, “Nepali, Nepali,” the cleaner opened a translation app on his phone. “Get me a cellphone. I pay you later,” was Mr. Shahi’s message. The Russian man smiled. The same day, a new phone appeared.

Google Translate​

At any given moment, Nepali soldiers are trying to escape the Russian army. We spoke to 11 who succeeded. Khakendra Khatri, an agricultural student from Rolpa, in central Nepal, said that in October he flew to Moscow with a planeload of 50 other Nepali recruits. At first, he said, they were all pumped up.

[IMG width="516px" alt="A man with close-cropped hair and a beard sits on a bed with a blue wall behind him."]https://static01.nyt.com/images/202...pg?quality=75&auto=webp&disable=upscale[/IMG]
Khakendra Khatri, 27, in Kathmandu, in June. Mr. Khatri joined the Russian military and escaped after some months.Credit...Uma Bista for The New York Times

But during training, the recruits began sharing gory videos from the front line in Ukraine. “That changed my mind,” Mr. Khatri said. He said he bribed his Russian commander 17,000 rubles (about $200) to sneak out of his base, on the outskirts of Moscow, with two other Nepali soldiers. The three soon got lost in a forest.

They began to panic. In Russia, deserters are punished by military courts and can spend years in prison. But then they saw a taxi coming down a road and waved it down. Mr. Khatri said he frantically tapped open Google Translate on his phone and used it to tell the driver they were lost tourists and needed to get to Moscow. The driver took them all the way — 15 hours — and at the end, refused to take a single ruble.

Mr. Khatri worked with middlemen to get a flight to Kathmandu. Now back home in Rolpa, he said: “Some Russians are quite helpful. I could have died if that driver hadn’t helped us.”
Mr. Shahi had similar kind words for the Russian orderly. With the new phone, he spoke to his wife. She borrowed heavily from relatives — $8,000 this time — to pay another group of traffickers who said they could get her husband out.
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Mr. Khatri showing photos from his time in the military to his sister, Khuma Khatri, in Kathmandu, in June.Credit...Uma Bista for The New York Times

On the morning of Jan. 23, Mr. Shahi gingerly stepped out of the Rostov hospital. He hobbled to a nearby market where a taxi was waiting for him. The driver communicated through a translation app, telling Mr. Shahi: Don’t talk. I’ll do the talking. If we get stopped, I’ll tell them you’re sick and headed to the hospital.

They drove all day to the one place that could help with the final stage of the escape: The Embassy of Nepal, in Moscow.

“Are you a soldier?”​

For months, the families of missing Nepali soldiers have held protests and hunger strikes in front of the Russian embassy in Kathmandu. The Nepali government says at least 32 Nepali men have died fighting for Russia; the families of the missing believe there are many more. In March, Nepal officially requested that Russia repatriate all Nepalis who had joined the Russian army, compensate any injured Nepali soldiers and send home any remains. “They listened to our argument carefully,” said Amrit Bahadur Rai, a spokesman for Nepal’s foreign affairs ministry.

But Russia has yet to do anything, he said.
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Appeal letters from relatives of 150 Nepalese men fighting with the Russian army, submitted at the Foreign Ministry in Kathmandu, Nepal, in January. Many family members have lost contact with their relatives.Credit...Narendra Shrestha/EPA, via Shutterstock

The Russian Embassy in Washington did not respond to emails asking for comment. Early on in the war, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia welcomed foreign fighters in his army saying they were coming on “a voluntary basis, especially not for money” and that it was important to “help them move to the war zone.” Nepal’s embassy in Moscow has been trying to help fugitive soldiers move out of the war zone. Many of them, Mr. Rai said, had been tricked by traffickers and were “desperate” to get out of combat.
Prakash Mani Paudel, director general of Nepal’s Department of Consular Services, said the embassy has helped 110 Nepalis escape, including Mr. Shahi, who had lost his passport in Donetsk and needed a temporary travel document, which the embassy quickly furnished.

The last step in Mr. Shahi’s odyssey was Moscow’s Domodedovo airport. Dressed in black jeans and a black puffy jacket, Mr. Shahi limped into the terminal building around 8 p.m. on Jan. 24. There he met an older Indian gentleman wearing a sports jacket and slacks, who had been hired as part of the $8,000 trafficking package, Mr. Shahi said. He helped with the check-in for the flight to Sharjah, in the United Arab Emirates, the first leg of the trip back to Kathmandu.
But Mr. Shahi stood out. He had shrapnel scars on his cheek. His left arm and right leg were covered in bandages. He could barely walk. And he was stocky and of military age.

At the immigration desk, four tall Russian border police agents surrounded him. The Indian gentlemen disappeared. The police took Mr. Shahi into another room and ordered him to strip to his underwear.
“What battalion are you in?”
“Are you a soldier?”
“Your hand’s injured. There are better hospitals in Russia. Why are you returning to Nepal?”

Mr. Shahi said his body began to tremble. “I was thinking I wasn’t going to make it.’’ The Russians were using a phone and translation app and Mr. Shahi pretended that he didn’t understand.
With 15 minutes before takeoff, they let him go. “I think they realized I was no use to them anymore,” he said.
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A sit-in near the Russian Embassy in Kathmandu, in April, to protest the recruitment of Nepalis by the Russian army to wage war in Ukraine.Credit...Narendra Shrestha/EPA, via Shutterstock

He lurched down the jetway, he said, the stress of the moment making his wounds ache even more. He took his seat, a window. The plane began to hurtle down the runway. The roar of the engines filled his ears. A flood of emotion washed through him. His right leg throbbed. He couldn’t use his left hand. He had put his family thousands of dollars in debt and had no job. But, for the first time since he left home, he felt safe. “I saved my own life,” he said.

As the plane lifted off the runway, tears began to roll down his cheeks. “People were looking at me,” he said. “But I didn’t care.”

Anatoly Kurmanaev contributed reporting from Berlin.


 
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Instead of joining the Russian army surely he could have just joined the US army? At least then he would be fighting for the good guys and wouldn’t have to escape. As an engineer I’m sure he could migrate west. Just a matter of choice I guess. Maybe he was excited about stealing from Ukrainians but as soon as he realized it wasn’t easy he dodged town and started complaining to journalists.
 
Instead of joining the Russian army surely he could have just joined the US army? At least then he would be fighting for the good guys and wouldn’t have to escape. As an engineer I’m sure he could migrate west. Just a matter of choice I guess. Maybe he was excited about stealing from Ukrainians but as soon as he realized it wasn’t easy he dodged town and started complaining to journalists.

There are not a lost of western armies accepting foreign citizen, I'd say the Ukrainian "International Legion" (for which you better have previous military experience, and that will sent you to the front) and the French "Foreign Legion" (and be one of the first to go wherever France need to use military force)

Also, from someone coming from the "global south", Russia may appear to be the good guy facing the "evil west". And there is the immediate financial incentive, Foreign Legion starting wage is €1,560 per month compared to the $2,200 per month promised by the human traffickers.
 
Still on that topic, another way of recruiting

 

Ukraine signs security pacts with EU, Lithuania and Estonia​


BRUSSELS, June 27 (Reuters) - The European Union and two of its member countries, Lithuania and Estonia, signed security agreements with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy at a summit in Brussels on Thursday.
The agreement with the EU lays out the bloc's commitment to help Ukraine in nine areas of security and defence policy - including arms deliveries, military training, defence industry cooperation and demining, according to a draft seen by Reuters.

The pact - along with the documents signed with Lithuania and Estonia - is intended to complement other similar agreements sealed between Ukraine and its allies as it continues its defence against Russia's invasion.
Countries including the United States, Britain, France and Germany have sealed such pacts with Kyiv.
Officials say the agreements are not the same as the mutual defence pact between NATO nations, but are pledges to provide Ukraine with weapons and other aid to bolster its own security and deter any future invasion.
 

Why arrival of F-16s won't rapidly change Ukraine's fortunes in war with Russia​


KYIV, June 27(Reuters) - Around two years after Ukraine started asking allies for F-16 fighter jets to help it fight Russian forces, the first planes are set to arrive by next month.
The length of the process, from procuring the U.S.-designed aircraft and training Ukrainian pilots to fly them, has frustrated Kyiv.
Russia has had time to prepare defences to try to nullify the F-16s' impact, and Ukraine has had to survive with a depleted air force a fraction of the size and sophistication of the enemy's.

Here are some facts about how the F-16s may help Ukraine and what obstacles still lie in the way of effective deployment:

POTENTIAL IMPACT​

Some analysts say the F-16s will not alone prove a turning point in the war, which began with Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022.
"You'd have to separate symbolism from the actual impact on the battlefield - which will be useful but modest, particularly in the beginning," said Mark Cancian, senior adviser with the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

Serhii Kuzan, chairman of the Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Center, a non-governmental research group, said at least 60 planes would be needed for significant operations as Ukraine attempts to push Russian aviation back from its borders.
Lawmaker Oleksandra Ustinova, who leads Kyiv's parliamentary commission on arms and munitions, said that Ukraine would need nearer to 120 F-16s to boost its air capability significantly.

While the pilots gain experience in Ukrainian skies and the military builds out its air infrastructure, the initial deliveries could at least help Ukraine strengthen its air shield, experts say.
"It will provide some air defence and depth capacity, potentially also help intercepting Shaheds [Iranian-built drones] and cruise missiles. Although it is a very expensive way of doing that, munitions-wise," said Justin Bronk, senior research fellow for airpower and technology at Royal United Services Institute (RUSI).

Ukraine's military has worked hard to reduce the threat to the arriving F-16s in recent months by attacking Russian air defences, according to Kuzan.
"The formation of the battlefield, especially in the south, is already taking place," he said. "Ukraine has the capabilities to systematically strike Russia's foremost air defence complexes."
But Cancian of CSIS said he expected Ukraine to try to open gaps in Russia's defences in the immediate run-up to planned F-16 attacks rather than a long time in advance.

PILOTS AND MAINTENANCE​

Training will be crucial.
"You can have lots of fast jets but if they don't have effective weapons, and air crew able to employ them with effective tactics, then they will just be shot down in large numbers," said Bronk.
The timeline for the training of Ukrainian pilots on F-16s has dominated discussions about deliveries and pledges of more than 70 jets.
By the end of 2024, Ukraine expects to have at least 20 pilots ready to fly F-16s, Ustinova said.
"It is difficult to solicit more planes when you don't have people to pilot them," she said, adding that, at first, Ukraine will have more F-16s than qualified pilots.
"Waiting in line for 10 years before our pilots are trained is not OK."
The Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson declined to comment.
U.S. officials have directed questions on training to Ukraine and noted that pilots can also be trained in Europe. However, Bronk said NATO's capacity was already stretched.
He added that aircraft maintenance was an even more pressing challenge than pilot training.
He said most repairs and maintenance would need to happen inside Ukraine, and it would probably have to rely on foreign contractors who know the aircraft.

AIR BASES UNDER THREAT​

Russia has already intensified its attacks on infrastructure that could be used for the maintenance and deployment of F-16s, some experts said.
"Russia is striking all airfields, potential F-16 bases, every day, including attempts to damage airstrips and infrastructure. These strikes have not paused for the last two months, at least," Kuzan said.
The targets will become all the more valuable when the aircraft, pilots and maintenance teams arrive. This is likely to force Ukraine to install missile defences to protect them, even though it is short of both air defence systems and ammunition.
"We have to accept the fact that the airfields will be well-protected when civilian objects could be under attack," Kuzan said, adding that each base would need at least two Patriot and two NASAMS batteries to secure it.
"As soon as we (build up our flight capabilities), we will push their planes back and the terror will stop. But these couple of months will be truly difficult," Kuzan added.

If the F16 are destroyed on ground, I put all blame in NATO for not providing adequate/enough air defences.
 
About that, another possible indirect help, from Israel this time.


The US, Israel and Ukraine are in talks to supply Kyiv with up to eight Patriot air defence systems, dramatically improving its ability to counter Russian air strikes. While not finalised, the arrangement would likely involve the highly prized Patriot systems being sent first from Israel to the US, before being delivered to Ukraine.

Former officials and analysts said the Israeli systems would most likely be sold back to the US, which could then send them on to Ukraine.

Israel’s M901 PAC-2 batteries are of an older variety than many of the Patriot systems currently in Ukraine. But according to military analysts, the older model is still fully compatible with the newer ones.Crucially, Israel has also ample stocks of interceptor missiles — which Ukraine also needs — to go with the batteries, according to one person familiar with the size of Israel’s arsenal.Analysts also said the old Israeli interceptor missiles had a longer range and a bigger warhead than the newer PAC-3 model.This could make them well suited for intercepting the Russian fighter jets that have been dropping devastating glide bombs on Ukrainian cities and military positions from far behind the front lines.“PAC-2 is actually more useful than PAC-3 for long range intercepts against aircraft, so they’d certainly be useful [in Ukraine],” said Justin Bronk, senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in London.
 

The Russians May Have Lost An Entire Airborne Brigade In Vovchansk​


Russia’s Victory Day offensive across Ukraine’s northern border with Russia may have aimed to capture a wide, deep swathe of territory to bring heavy artillery closer to the city of Kharkiv, 25 miles to the south. More ambitiously, Russian commanders may have hoped to march on Kharkiv itself.
Neither happened. Within a couple of weeks of the offensive kicking off on May 9—the day Russia celebrates its defeat of Nazi Germany in World War II—the force of 30,000 or so Russian troops got bogged down in the town of Vovchansk, just a few miles south of the border.
And now the defenders of Vovchansk, including some or part of several Ukrainian mechanized, marine and airborne brigades, have reportedly defeated an elite Russian airborne brigade.

According to a well-regarded Ukrainian correspondent who writes under the pseudonym “Nikolaev Vanek,” the 83rd Airborne Brigade has retreated from Vovchansk after a costly three-week deployment.
“The entire 83rd Airborne Brigade is urgently withdrawn to the rear to restore combat capability,” Vanek wrote. “There are too many casualties, they can't fight, there are too many 500s.”
In Russian military parlance, a “code 500” is a soldier who refuses to fight.
If confirmed, it’s a stinging loss for the new Russian northern grouping of forces, which includes around seven regiments and brigades. And Russian losses in Vovchansk could get a lot worse, as the survivors of an entire battalion—that’s hundreds of troops—have been trapped in a chemical plant in central Vovchansk for two weeks.
The trapped soldiers might not last much longer. The Ukrainian air force has been lobbing precision glide bombs at the chemical plant, gradually reducing it to rubble.
The 83rd Airborne Brigade is, or was, an elite force—one of a dozen or so brigade-sized formations in the 40,000-person pre-war airborne corps. As recently as 2019, the brigade practiced parachuting into combat with their lightweight armored vehicles.

In Ukraine, the 83rd Airborne Brigade ditched its parachutes and fought as a mechanized force in its tracked BMD and wheeled BTR vehicles. Redeploying hundreds of miles at a time to respond to Ukrainian attacks and opportunities for Russian attacks, the brigade fought in the south in 2023 and, this spring, took part in the Russian siege of the eastern town of Chasiv Yar.
As the Victory Day offensive ground to a halt in Vovchansk, Russian commanders ordered the 83rd Airborne Brigade to head north and get the northern grouping of forces moving again.
The first 83rd Airborne Brigade paratroopers appeared along the front line in Vovchansk before June 12. On or around June 16, the Russian northern grouping of forces “used 17 paratroopers from the 83rd Brigade,” recalled a Ukrainian drone operator with the call sign “Kriegsforscher.”
The Ukrainian 82nd Air Assault Brigade targeted the Russian paratroopers with mortars, killing four and wounding 10, according to Kriegsforscher.
It was a disastrous start for the 83rd Airborne Brigade in Vovchansk. Incredibly, the brigade doubled down. “Firstly, they deployed one assault battalion from the 83rd Brigade,” Kriegsforscher noted. “It suffered losses and they deployed the rest of the brigade.”
Conditions were brutal for the Russian paratroopers. “We can't take it anymore!” a paratrooper reportedly named Oleg Vesnin moaned in a video he recorded on his phone around June 12. “Three days without food and water. No support. I don't know what to do next.” Two of his fellow troopers lay wounded, if not dead, behind him.
Two weeks later, the 83rd Airborne Brigade had suffered so many losses among its approximately 2,000 pre-war personnel—including troopers who allegedly refused to fight—that it was no longer capable of major combat, if Vanek’s reporting is accurate.
The unit had no choice but to withdraw from the battlefield. “Bye bye,” Vanek quipped. He wrote that he expected a similar fate for whichever Russian unit replaces the 83rd Airborne Brigade in a battle that is rapidly becoming a trap for Russian infantry.

Quick, someone tell Russia you can use glide bombs against military targets instead of using them to massacre civilians!
 

How Ukraine can defeat Russian glide bombs​



As Ukraine gains new Western arms and technologies, it can better address the threat. But the West will also need to show more flexibility in the conditions it sets for Ukraine’s use of advanced weaponry.

Glide bombs are cheap. Russia is firing hundreds a week at Ukrainian targets at and behind the front lines. These bombs are small and difficult to spot on radar. They do not use propulsion or emit a detectable heat signature. Russian aircraft launch glide bombs dozens of miles behind the front lines, in relative sanctuary.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that 3,000 glide bombs hit targets in March. More Patriot air defenses were needed, he said, to stop the bombs from wreaking destruction on infrastructure. The U.S. is sending more Patriots, but interceptors are expensive. The cost-exchange ratio is unfavorable.
 
The bombs themselves can't be intercepted AFAIK, the Patriots would have to be used to shoot down the planes carrying the bombs.

What's the "cost-exchange ratio" of a patriot missile vs a Su-34 ?
 
The bombs themselves can't be intercepted AFAIK, the Patriots would have to be used to shoot down the planes carrying the bombs.

What's the "cost-exchange ratio" of a patriot missile vs a Su-34 ?
Assuming you get the Su-34: about 10:1 in favor of the Patriot. And that’s dollars to dollars.

The trouble is that not every missile fired will actually hit its target. In air to air battle with multiple-range missiles and radar support, every missile once fired has a limited capability to maneuver and intercept its target. A clean hit is usually a kill. Even a glancing blow can force the pilot to eject and this will also result in the loss of the airframe.

But these missiles can be evaded. Aside from fancy footwork, one prominent tactic for evasion is simply to turn around and run away. You let the missile use up its range and sink harmlessly into the drink. Then you turn back and re-engage. Against enemies with longer range missiles, this creates a game of cat and mouse mixed with chicken, in which both sides will use missiles to zone out the enemy and will also perform feints to gain a better posture.

Alternatively the missiles can be shot down with counter missiles, or deluded/distracted/disoriented by countermeasures.

For ground to air, the calculus is modified primarily by the very long range of the ground based missiles. Historically ground to air missile batteries possess a significant advantage over aerial missile platforms for range and payload. The aerial missile platform’s main advantage is energy stored up from the fighting gravity it has already done. And that is exactly where the glide bomb comes in: it is now possible for an aerial weapons platform to deliver a long range and fairly accurate bomb which can compete with SAM ranges. Now the Patriots and other SAM installations are also vulnerable to those attacks.

This matter has only been tentatively explored so far because of the US’ requirements on the Ukrainians not to fire weapons into Russian territory. But as they can do so now, the hope is that Patriots have been green-lit for intercepting Russian bombers much earlier in their missions.

But the battle rages on. The Defense News opinion piece I linked is a fan of more F-16’s and more eyes in the sky.
 
If Patriot missiles start blowing Russian bomber from the sky at what was hitherto though a safe distance, then one also need to factor in the fear-factor – how many times does this need to happen to make the Russian side desist from lugging bombs at targets in Ukraine like that?

And that then should also be factored into the cost-benefit calculation eventually, if a liberal use of Patriots to go after Russian bombers leads to Russia stopping targeting civilian targets in Kharkiv.

And that is after all what the Ukranians want to do here (shooting down bombers is just a "how") – then everything and everyone no longer blowing up on the ground in Kharkiv or elsewhere is a plus for Ukraine.
 
Yeah, I mean, that would be assuming the Patriots always got the bombers, and in that case yes the objective would be to force Russia to taper back its bombing operations or risk losing more materiel. Indeed that does seem to be the actual objective here. So we'll see how well it goes.
 
Ukraine have been claiming to shoot down planes using Patriots (including in Russian airspace) at least since January. One case when they shot down Il-76 full of their own prisoners of war prepared for swap, was confirmed by Russian side and the fact that they used Patriot was confirmed too.

It's strange to read things like what if they start to target Russian bombers - they already do everything they can in that matter. This tactics is simply not effective enough to prevent Russia from using glide bombs.
It's about limited supply of missiles and risky tactics of bringing SAMs close to the frontline. Ukraine already lost several launchers when they get too confident, and that's only counting visually confirmed losses. In many cases it's impossible to get reliable confirmation, e.g. when there is no recon drone over target, or if Russia blows up closed hangar or warehouse.
 
Ukraine have been claiming to shoot down planes using Patriots (including in Russian airspace) at least since January. One case when they shot down Il-76 full of their own prisoners of war prepared for swap, was confirmed by Russian side and the fact that they used Patriot was confirmed too.

It's strange to read things like what if they start to target Russian bombers - they already do everything they can in that matter. This tactics is simply not effective enough to prevent Russia from using glide bombs.
It's about limited supply of missiles and risky tactics of bringing SAMs close to the frontline. Ukraine already lost several launchers when they get too confident, and that's only counting visually confirmed losses. In many cases it's impossible to get reliable confirmation, e.g. when there is no recon drone over target, or if Russia blows up closed hangar or warehouse.
They have limited numbers. Their use has to be prioritized and rationed. The underlying assumption to a change is whether Ukraine might get better access as in more systems to use more liberally.

They are trying to stop Russia from bombing civilians. Obviously they use what they have. What they don't have is enough.

The outstanding question is whether something can and will be done about it, perhaps?
 
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If Patriot missiles start blowing Russian bomber from the sky at what was hitherto though a safe distance, then one also need to factor in the fear-factor – how many times does this need to happen to make the Russian side desist from lugging bombs at targets in Ukraine like that?

And that then should also be factored into the cost-benefit calculation eventually, if a liberal use of Patriots to go after Russian bombers leads to Russia stopping targeting civilian targets in Kharkiv.

And that is after all what the Ukranians want to do here (shooting down bombers is just a "how") – then everything and everyone no longer blowing up on the ground in Kharkiv or elsewhere is a plus for Ukraine.

They did so in the past, when a plane was shot down, Russian planes would take a small pause then incrementally test the defenses again, step by step.

Something changed this year, around the time that second AWACS was shoot down. They had losses but didn't stop then (see my answer below)

Ukraine have been claiming to shoot down planes using Patriots (including in Russian airspace) at least since January. One case when they shot down Il-76 full of their own prisoners of war prepared for swap, was confirmed by Russian side and the fact that they used Patriot was confirmed too.

It's strange to read things like what if they start to target Russian bombers - they already do everything they can in that matter. This tactics is simply not effective enough to prevent Russia from using glide bombs.
It's about limited supply of missiles and risky tactics of bringing SAMs close to the frontline. Ukraine already lost several launchers when they get too confident, and that's only counting visually confirmed losses. In many cases it's impossible to get reliable confirmation, e.g. when there is no recon drone over target, or if Russia blows up closed hangar or warehouse.

First case of "SAMbush" was in May 2023 (one Su-34, one Su-35, two or three Mi-8 helicopters the same day), it wasn't linked to patriots until later, this case:



They had used the most mobile version of the 3 Patriot systems they've received, the German one, and it is said Germany was not happy at the time, so they didn't used it again this way until late 2023.

And in January the first A-50 was shoot down the same way.


There was a lot of reports in March, more than 10 Sukhoi claimed to be destroyed from interception, and at least 3 confirmations (3x Su-30 IIRC). But unlike previous cases of multiple aircraft shot down in a short time span, Russia didn't pause the bombing campaign, and then there was that report of a Patriot system badly hit (ie radar or another critical component, not just a launcher) near the front line. Maybe they've managed to successfully launch a "counter ambush" this way.

Of course one could deny the 10+ kills or the Patriot system destruction (maybe only launchers, or they just run out of missiles), but the actual fact is that there was not any more claim of Sukhoi being shoot down for months after that, even if the gliding bombs were used every day in large quantities.

Now that was with 1 mobile Patriot system and 2 less mobile systems, if the mobile system was hit, it's perfectly normal that they've stopped to use that tactic, but it doesn't mean the tactic is ineffective against glide bombs, it does confirm that there is a high risk involved, especially when you risk one of three systems, but they may get 5 to 8 more systems in the months to come (and lot of missiles), they may take that risk again, Russian stock of Su-34 is not that high either.
 
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There was a lot of reports in March, more than 10 Sukhoi claimed to be destroyed from interception, and at least 3 confirmations (3x Su-30 IIRC).
10 Su-34 according to their claims, 0 of them confirmed. None appeared even in Oryx list.
Most likely, they counted every missile launch against a bomber with unverified result, as a hit.
Of course one could deny the 10+ kills or the Patriot system destruction (maybe only launchers, or they just run out of missiles), but the actual fact is that there was not any more claim of Sukhoi being shoot down for months after that, even if the gliding bombs were used every day in large quantities.
Patriot's destruction OTOH was video confirmed, and according to forbes it was probably destroyed with the crew.
 
"only" launchers then, those are easier to replace, sadly not true for the crew, could also explain the following weeks without any missile launched against bombers.
 
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