source ?
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[RD] Russia Invades Ukraine: Eight
- Thread starter Birdjaguar
- Start date
source ?
You need a source for the claim that energy price has risen steeply in the Eu following the anti-Russia stance 2022-? Really?
Energy Prices in Europe: Latest Trends and Comparisons
See how energy prices and cost of living have changed in Europe compared to pre-crisis levels.
www.greenmatch.co.uk
There was a radical rise of energy price before any sanctions and price now is much less than year ago.
Maybe it was because expectations of Russian invasion and sanctions? Maybe covid, maybe green deal? I am not an energy expert.
Maybe it was because expectations of Russian invasion and sanctions? Maybe covid, maybe green deal? I am not an energy expert.
my "yardstick" is how the war ends, you're answering that sanction hurt more Europe than Russia, I ask for a source, you provide something else, then use a strawman when I ask for a real source.
also you "forgot" that the energy crisis started one year before the war.
Verbose
Deity
In Euros and Cents, it's an uptick from 0,28€ to more like 0,34€ per kWh in the Eurozone. Sure, that's about 20%.
Your link is interesting. It is measuring the change in the cost of gas from prior to Russia's invasion of Ukraine to Oct 2022, the first 8 months of the invasion. You have attributed all of that rise to the sanctions but your article does not say that. Maybe the Sanctions were not the problem you want them to be.
Doing some digging....
Reasons behind the 2022 energy price increases and prospects for next year
20 Jul 2023
Throughout 2022, the weaponisation of natural gas supplies by Russia led to concerns regarding the security of natural gas supply in Europe. This column reviews the reasons behind the increases in energy prices and prospects for 2023–24. Decisive EU policy and market rebalancing helped reduce concerns about shortages, bringing prices back to physical fundamentals. Similar spikes to those experienced in the summer of 2022 are less probable in the winter of 2023–24. Managing demand, increasing diversification, and renewing focus on the security of supply remain necessary.
Throughout 2022, the weaponisation of natural gas supplies by Russia led to concerns regarding the security of the natural gas supply. Significant gas price spikes were the main contributor to the high electricity prices that had a major impact on the EU economy.
This has fuelled debates on the role of energy in the current inflationary environment (Killian and Zhou 2023), the capacity for the EU to phase out its fossil-fuel consumption from Russia (Pittel et al. 2022), and industrial competitiveness in a context of high energy prices. A renewed focus on the security of supply and access to commodities necessary for the green transition has come to the forefront (Paduano and Arezki 2022).
Natural gas as the main driver of the crisis
The 2021–2022 energy crisis was not related to the green transition. Energy prices increased due to the following reasons:- reduction in the supply from Russia
- uncertainty and fears of shortages
- lower-than-usual hydro and nuclear electricity output in the summer, which pushed gas consumption for electricity
Figure 1 Russian weaponisation of gas supply and EU energy policies
Reasons behind the 2022 energy price increases and prospects for next year
Throughout 2022, the weaponisation of natural gas supplies by Russia led to concerns regarding the security of natural gas supply in Europe. This column reviews the reasons behind the increases in energy prices and prospects for 2023–24. Decisive EU policy and market rebalancing helped reduce...
cepr.org
Lexicus
Deity
I'm not opposed to sanctions, exactly, but I am skeptical about their efficacy. I've been hearing for nearly three years that they will be collapsing the Russian economy and/or its capacity to produce weapons any day now.
But without them, what would the situation be?
Lexicus
Deity
This is a good question. My sense is that most of Russia's problems in this war have not been inflicted by the sanctions but I'm open to being proved wrong. The key problems for Russia as I understand things are basically more in the realm of military culture and organzation, with e.g. low morale for frontline troops due to violent hazings and such, low level of initiative and training for junior officers, higher-level commanders being chosen for loyalty rather than ability - familiar problems from Russian and Soviet military history. Generally my impression has been that on the materiel side of things the Russians suffer more from corruption than anything else. The most recent piece of long-form journalism on the war I read noted that Russian forces are fairly lavishly equipped with drones and artillery while Ukraine struggles to keep its forces equipped and supplied.
It's certainly hard to calculate this. I doubt that Russia benefits from sanctions as it claims.
At the same time, I doubt that the largest country in the world suffers much from sanctions either.
The source of its failure has to be in itself.
At the same time, I doubt that the largest country in the world suffers much from sanctions either.
The source of its failure has to be in itself.
Haven't many of the sanctions been focused on oligarchs and corporations in an attempt to get pressure on Putin, create pain for the oligarchs and make the dynamics of the Russian economy more difficult? Others I know have focused on the Ruble and foreign Russian assets.
Snowygerry
Deity
Also to get them out of the European market, without the sanctions they would control the energy prices like they did at the start of the war.
The sanctions were never expected to bring the Russian economy down, the cost of war is expected to do that over a period of 10-20 years.
Like the Afghanistan war, which was much less costly.
To a lesser extend we obviously also do not want them to interfere with our food market :
More than punishment for Russia, you must see the sanctions as a method to bring all EU states on line, whether their individual governments want to support the war effort or not.
They are designed to make the sabotage actions of "useful idiots" like Orban and Fico futile, and maintain unity among members vs. Russia as far as possible.
The sanctions were never expected to bring the Russian economy down, the cost of war is expected to do that over a period of 10-20 years.
Like the Afghanistan war, which was much less costly.
To a lesser extend we obviously also do not want them to interfere with our food market :
More than punishment for Russia, you must see the sanctions as a method to bring all EU states on line, whether their individual governments want to support the war effort or not.
They are designed to make the sabotage actions of "useful idiots" like Orban and Fico futile, and maintain unity among members vs. Russia as far as possible.
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Thorgalaeg
Deity
To evaluate Russian economical situation, evidently the last thing to be believed is the economic "data" published by Moscow or any Russia-based media, so Swedish government is using an alternative method based on satellite images:
https://www.businessinsider.com/sat...y-link&utm_medium=referral&utm_content=topbar
The conclusion is Russia is Increasingly looking like North Korea in every sense.
https://www.businessinsider.com/sat...y-link&utm_medium=referral&utm_content=topbar
The conclusion is Russia is Increasingly looking like North Korea in every sense.
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innonimatu
the resident Cassandra
- Joined
- Dec 4, 2006
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- 15,295
So we can discuss opinions here now, not pust parrot news? I can then tell you that imo you are still reasoning based on fictions. Your impressions, I'm afraid, are coloured by propaganda about fictional russian problems and fictional russian casualties. And in that, oddly enough, you have something in common with Trump*. Russia basically destroyed three NATO armies in this war. First ukraine's, financed by NATO after 2017 and equipped from the huge stock left there by the USSR and everything collected from ex-Warsaw Pact countries. After that a new ukranian army, what was it, 12 divisions, more?, equipped with the supposedly wonder weapons scrougned from NATO armouries and active military units (which were partially or totally degraded as a consequence) across "Europe", with a few US pieces thrown in, used up in a doomed offensive in 2023. And finally the dregs being methodically ground down since then. There won't be a fourth because there's no capability left to create a fourth.
You want to try to support a claim that a military which achieved this has problems "in the realm of military culture and organization"? Lack of ability? Compared to whom?
The only military problem that was evident troughout the war on the russian side was their reorganization from what they called tactical battle groups (smaller) back into traditional divisional formations. They expanded the size of their military, having concluded that more manpower was necessary, after starting the war at a roughly 2:1 disadvantage. The strategic withdrawal from Kherson may have been because of that, as that reorganization went on. But they executed the reorganization successfully. Something NATO can not even dream about, the militaries of the member states of the alliance (minus Turkey which took no part on this liberal crusade) are all weaker now than they were at the start of this conflict. Spent materiel was not replaced. Manpower was not increased.
In terms of military performance basically there is one country in the world currently that has the experience, the military doctine among its officials, to conduct massive combined arms operations with full armies. That can mobilize and successfully use full armies. That country is Russia. That was NATO's achievement with its adventure in Ukraine. All the other countries either have peace-time armies set up for defense, or have shown themselves to be complete tactical failures at attempting to do anything offensive larger that colonial expeditions (and even at that, frequently). Ukraine, as trained and directed by NATO officers, lost entire armies worth of men and equipment, including the one destroyed in a head-on attack on a fortified defense line that it totaly failed to breach. NATO's staff doesn't actually exist, of course, it's on assigment from member countries. The thing is, even since the alliance exists those countries never knew how to do offensive warfare outside of colonial expeditions. The one exception, a country that did organize a big operation, was the US back in 1991 against a totally isolated Iraq. It was a big offensive operation, very well prepared logistically and politically, and earned the US its world hegemony for 30 years. As intended. But all officers involved are retired or dead. The ukranian thing exposed the tactical inability of curent staff.
As for "kill ratios", it will become evident that the whole narrative was basically inverting the numbers. The thing in propaganda being served now already shifted to admitting to a huge number of ukranian casualties but continuing to claim also huge russian casualties. Out daily servings of propaganda will get to the truth eventually. Probably as helicopters are taking off from some embassy in Kiev.
This shift of narrative about ukranian casualties, happening now, is btw prima facie evidence of past propaganda targeting NATO's own citizens. Or massive incompetence and self-delusion among all those officials who were the sources ofr the crafting of narratives delivered by the media. Take your pick. None is good.
*Trump also is intoxicated, he thinks he can pressure the russian government to agree to a status quo peace because Russia is supposed to be in a weak position. He's believeing at least half of NATO's own propaganda. Not going to go well. But most EU politicians are even more detached from reality.
Those sanctions in particular were very politically advantageous for the russian government and that became obvious in about one month. Oligarchs learned that they were personna non grata in the "wdest"m had their assets subject to confiscation at the whim of politicans they had no control over. And had to go back home, invest their profits back home, whete the govermment could demand loyalty but would not take their assets on a whim. The whole idea of thsoe sanctions was idiotic. They were kept on on the principle of never admitting to have made a mistake.
But there were many economic sanctions. There in teh US I think you have no idea about the collective madness that toook over the ruling castes in a number or EU countries. I don't even know where to start, just lokk up the number of "sanction packages" the EC bureacuracy did. Hey they haven't failed while they keep trying, right?
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aelf
Ashen One
Wait, wait. Wasn't Trump supposed to help end the war in Russia's favour?
Ordnael
Emperor
I think Trump wants to end the war in US favour, so US companies can resume business as usual!
Getting a a large piece of the pie on the reconstruction of civilian infrastructures on Ukrainian side, fixing refineries and such on Russian side, must be very tempting!
Verbose
Deity
The problem with sanctions and the Russian economy is that Putin prepared economically for them in advance. He assembled this huge war-chest that still allows the Russian government to hire contract soldiers with these relatively enormous pay-checks, and hand out arms production contracts which has meant an employment boom and rising worker wages (still sufficient to offset inflation).
The problems for the Russian armed forces you (we all) have picked up on were unexpected. Sanctions were not, and the Russian government went out of its way to sanction-proof the economy – at least as long as the money lasts. And they still have not run out. But that does not mean they have limitless funds. Just that they knew this would happen. (And then it seems fairly certain they still did not expect sanctions to the level they got, or the war to still be shuddering along with no actual end in sight three years down the line).
As for the military situation, where I get my info things rather indicate that at the mo, the Russian ammo advantage has been steadily shrinking relative the Ukranians, and the Ukranian major problem is not gear, byt trained personnel to man all the guns and gear they have.
Ordnael
Emperor
Ukraine hits key Russian oil refinery in massive drone attack
Ukraine hits key Russian oil refinery in massive drone attack
Russia’s defense ministry claimed it shot down 121 Ukrainian drones in 11 regions, including one over Moscow.
www.politico.eu
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