2020 US Election (Part One)

[onejayhawk]

so there's this funny dynamic to elections in the US. Democrat voters outnumber Republican voters but republicans are dedicated. They vote in every election. Democrats on the other hand need to be excited to turn out. If both parties nominate a dud candidate republicans win because their voters are just happy with an R (what we got in 2016.) Democrats win when turnout is high which is why republicans love voter suppression so much.

This is why people are worried Biden will win the nomination. He's not exciting. He's a likeable guy and he has that "Obama's buddy" thing going for him. Unfortunately he's said disparaging things about Millennials, who are most likely going to be the largest lefty voting block in 2020. He's had terrible policies and positions in his long history (he used to be called the senator from MBNA.) He's a walking gaffe machine with a personal space problem. I think he might be an easy target for Trump to criticize to death much like he did Hillary.

Your suggestion would be hard to pass even if it made things better because it too heavily favors one side. Lefties are just more populous.

Of the top five, only Buttigier generates any excitement and he is generally seen as too young and inexperienced. Biden is just the easiest target. Over that, the Democrats are in serious danger of losing large chunks of their former base. They used to be the party of the little guy, but not lately. Trump took on that mantle and has not disappointed.

J

 

[Ajidica]

Of the top five, only Buttigier generates any excitement and he is generally seen as too young and inexperienced.

Is he generating any real excitement? His entire campaign seems to consist of "I'm gay, smarter than you, and can be evasive in eight languages" which while definitely good right out of the gates seems to be following the Beto path.

They used to be the party of the little guy, but not lately.

Errrr, have you even ever glanced at Warren's platform? Her entire website is literally filled with policies on how she would approach the tech/information industry and finance to make it more fair to the 'little guy'.

 

[cardgame]

Bernie is the one generating excitement.

 

[Sommerswerd]

I watched one of their debates. It was so boring, Cruz was just saying token right-wing fear-mongering crap and Beto was saying generic hope-and-change crap. It was like a bad movie where the bad guy is hateable but the good guy is so bland & unmemorable it's hard to root for him.

I like Yang because he talks about actual policies rather than trying to say "I'm good, I'm good, they're bad, hey, did I mention I'm the good guy/choice" all the time. 95% of politicians it seems most of their motivation is ego & attention. Definitely Biden

How is this schmuck the front runner??

People are bored & will vote for Trump who provides much more entertainment & emotional stimulation than Biden.

Doesn't Biden look like he has less hair back then than now?? What gives? I mean I get that he could have gotten hair plugs or transplants or whatever... but he still has a big bald spot in the back of his head. Why not just get the whole head done if you're gonna go that route? Its just bizarre.

 

[onejayhawk]

Is he generating any real excitement? His entire campaign seems to consist of "I'm gay, smarter than you, and can be evasive in eight languages" which while definitely good right out of the gates seems to be following the Beto path.


Errrr, have you even ever glanced at Warren's platform? Her entire website is literally filled with policies on how she would approach the tech/information industry and finance to make it more fair to the 'little guy'.

Beto wishes. Mayor Pete is in the thick of things and Beto is looking in from the cheap seats beyond left field.

Trump won the election by converting the little guy--the small business owner and the hourly paid working stiff. Warren may have policies that are aimed at helping the little guy but Trump is actually doing it. You can't claim it's just white guys either. Employment is at record levels for blacks, Hispanics, and women while hourly wages are trending higher. This is the fallout of becoming identified with elites and special interests. The Democratic party has pissed off its core.

J

 

[Camikaze]

seems to be following the Beto path.

Superficially they seem the same type of candidate (although I've heard Buttigieg described as "the thinking person's Beto", which really says more about where his support comes from than anything), but it's interesting to compare the effect of Biden's entry into the race on their poll numbers. Beto's polling dropped off a cliff, but Buttigieg essentially held up. That would suggest that Beto is more of an avatar for an "electable" type, whereas Buttigieg has more support based upon his own personal appeal.

 

[onejayhawk]

Superficial is very good word for the similarity. Both are young, attractive, and toe the party line. Look deeper and the similarities end. Between the ears, Buttigieg is closer to Elizabeth Warren than anyone else in the field. Beto is more Joe Biden. I don't think Mayor Pete has a real chance, which is a pity, but he could be back in 4,8, maybe 12 years. Or, he could be Governor of Indiana. Maybe, he does both.

J

 

[Takhisis]

Your suggestion would be hard to pass even if it made things better because it too heavily favors one side. Lefties are just more populous.

Yeah, I know, ever since people have not been allowed to vote in the name of their slaves this democracy thing has not been as valued.

 

[Ajidica]

Between the ears, Buttigieg is closer to Elizabeth Warren than anyone else in the field.

I don't follow. Warren has a strong policy focus - her campaign so far is basically "I got a plan for that" while Buttigieg's campaign is arguably the antithesis of Warrens, placing a strong focus on him being "smart" and a "good person" with whatever policy proposals emerge encapsulating a vague sort of millennial center-left bent.

 

[Takhisis]

I'm not sure that onejayhawk can make out the difference, if only because he cannot be arsed to.

 

[Camikaze]

"Between the ears" though. Because Buttigieg is purposefully vague about policy, it's easy to project onto him assumptions about what his true positions are. Maybe "between the ears" he is closest to Warren, and he's just masterfully not let that slip.

I do think he has an interesting theory on promoting ideas instead of policies - it is a bit concerning how fixated the Dems get on specific policies, setting themselves up for purity tests and disappointment. Perhaps it's the difference in political systems, but when I'm deciding who to vote for I'm always much more interested in virtue signalling, from which you can broadly extrapolate, rather than individual policies, which are single data points. But Buttigieg's take does seem a little too convenient.

 

[Ajidica]

"Between the ears" though. Because Buttigieg is purposefully vague about policy, it's easy to project onto him assumptions about what his true positions are. Maybe "between the ears" he is closest to Warren, and he's just masterfully not let that slip.

I dunno. The few policy positions he has let slip, and relevant stuff from his time as a mayor, indicates he is little more than an Obama-at-his-worst McKinsey hack.

I do think he has an interesting theory on promoting ideas instead of policies - it is a bit concerning how fixated the Dems get on specific policies, setting themselves up for purity tests and disappointment. Perhaps it's the difference in political systems, but when I'm deciding who to vote for I'm always much more interested in virtue signalling, from which you can broadly extrapolate, rather than individual policies, which are single data points. But Buttigieg's take does seem a little too convenient.

I'm quite suspicious of the whole 'ideas over policies' thing because of how much the left got burned/tricked by Obama. He talked a lot about ideas and how he was going to make the American economy fairer and take Wall Street to task. In practice, he did little more than entrench their position in exchange for some settlement decrees. All of the 'real' reform came through Congress despite Geithner over at Treasury.

 

[onejayhawk]

Major new poll out. The Des Moines Register publishes the gold standard* of all political polls.

Biden has dropped back to the pack while Warren, Buttigieg and Bernie are neck and neck. This must be encouraging for Warren, because she had been a distant 4th in previous polls.
http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2019/images/06/07/top2_ia_saturday.pdf

It is important to note that this is a poll of politically active Democrats.

* Since Nate Silver gives this pollster his A+ rating, does that make it the silver standard?

J

 

[caketastydelish]

Warren excites younger people/progressives in a way Hillary never did. As does Beto.

Bernie Sanders is too old to be the President; it doesn't matter how perfect he would have been in the past. I think it's worth noting that the average lifespan in America is 80 years old. Not saying he will die as soon as his first term is over, and I think he'll live to be 84, but someone at that age should not be making these kinds of decisions that would impact the whole country.

Reagan had Alzheimer's during his second term. Was it really appropriate for someone like that to hold the highest office of the land? I frankly have a feeling a lot of entry-level jobs wouldn't even want you if you have those kinds of problems.

I've never heard of Buttigieg before but with a name like that it could hurt that person's electability (I am not completely joking... and especially if Trump is who you're running against. I can almost guarantee he would milk that all day and a not insignificant amount of people would eat it right up).

 

[Estebonrober]

Warren excites younger people/progressives in a way Hillary never did. As does Beto.

Bernie Sanders is too old to the President; it doesn't matter how perfect he would have been in the past. I think it's worth noting that the average lifespan in America is 80 years old. Not saying he will die as soon as his first term is over, and I think he'll live to be 84, but someone at that age should not be making these kinds of decisions that would impact the whole country.

Reagan had Alzheimer's during his second term. Was it really appropriate for someone like that to hold the highest office of the land? I frankly have a feeling a lot of entry-level jobs wouldn't even want you if you have those kinds of problems.

I've never heard Buttigieg before but with a name like that it could hurt that person's electability (I am not completely joking... and especially if Trump is who you're running against. I can almost guarantee he would milk that all day and a not insignificant amount of people would eat it right up).

I’m not a buttigieg fan but your premise here is exactly why we can’t have nice things as a nation. There is still a significant portion of the population that would rather act like dicks and morons than grow up. Here’s looking at you ***** voter!

 

[Takhisis]

Reagan had Alzheimer's during his second term. Was it really appropriate for someone like that to hold the highest office of the land?

I don't think Ronald Reagan suffering from Alzheimer's disease should be the main or foremost of the objections to his being president.

 

[caketastydelish]

I don't think someone suffering from Alzheimer's disease should be allowed to be the President. Or if they develop the disease while in office they should be forced to resign and the let vice president or whoever the next up would be that is mentally stable enough to do the job.

FDR being in a wheelchair is different because that didn't affect his decision-making abilities.

 

[Takhisis]

You are not addressing my point.

 

[El_Machinae]

There's already a legal process to remove a President that is suffering from dementia. There's been active conversation about using this process on Trump. He would make it political, since he is quite willing to lie.

 

[caketastydelish]

You are not addressing my point.

I disagree with much of what he did/said, but "he shouldn't be allowed to be the president because I personally don't agree with him" isn't really a standard we can hold the president to.