2020 US Election (Part One)

[AdrienIer]

Bernie won the Michigan primary so it's not clear cut that he's not an asset in the midwest. He has appeal in blue collar country by promising better welfare for them and their kids, and by not being establishment.

 

[rah]

Now much of the midwest is "blue collar country"?

 

[GoodEnoughForMe]

If we define "blue collar" as "rustic white people" then it's far and away the most blue collar of any region outside of maybe the extreme NE. States like Iowa and Minnesota are over 90% white. Ohio and Michigan have essentially there entire non-white population clustered in major cities unlike the south. That said the whole "we have to get back these votes" is a dangerous game since Hillary wins if she just gets a few more black voters and young voters to turn out, and doing the former can quickly veer into putting white voters on a platform above all others.

 

[AdrienIer]

Clinton's losses compared to Obama in the midwest were mostly from less black votes and people from former industrial towns that used to be solidly democratic but voted for the "change" candidate. Bernie helps regain part of the second category

 

[rah]

Would Biden have gotten those votes? I think he would have.

 

[AdrienIer]

Maybe. But the idea is that there are more than one way to win, and thinking that people fall neatly on a left-right scale and will vote for the candidate closer to them on that scale is 100% wrong. If you just want to win 2020 there are good reasons to choose a person with a strong dynamic like Bernie (even though it might turn off some people in the center), and good reasons to choose a person that can unite a broader coalition behind them like Biden (even though they might not be able to motivate people enough to ensure they come out and vote). Considering how they both crush Trump in early polling the debate on who is more electable is rather pointless.

 

[Farm Boy]

Sanders doesn't preach the gospel of disarmament and disempowerment before the all mighty state as loudly as many of his peers even as he expresses his faith in our ability to build a decent one.

 

[GoodEnoughForMe]

Would Biden have gotten those votes? I think he would have.

Possibly. Biden and Bernie are basically inverse. Older black voters support the former in pretty large numbers but aren't exactly knocking down doors for Bernie. Bernie has a really large margin in the 35 and under crowd for black voters, but not older ones.

There are obviously candidates who can breach both of those age groups (say, Harris). Which would be, along with her household popularity and general approval ratings, why she's probably considered the current front runner.

Even with all the barriers and voting restrictions and racism and classism and ageism and everything, young people really really really need to get out the vote, whatever happens. Else we remain perpetually talked down to by Feinstein and Biden and all of them.

 

[rah]

Not just young people. A 50% turnout of eligible voters is an embarrassment. We should be encouraging everyone to vote, not just those you think will vote the way you want them to.

 

[Gori the Grey]

Bearing on this discussion is a Pew poll that was featured on Morning Joe today, that says Democrats want the party to move more to the center, 51%, vs more to the left 40%. For all that, I still share Sommer's view, that you've got the anti-Trump voters no matter what, so move at least a little to the left because 1) you'll get more of that 40% and 2) you can afford to do so this one time without losing all those in the center who hate Trump and are already going to vote against Trump.

 

[rah]

I disagree since I'm an anti-trump voter who will not vote for a dem too far to the left.
I refuse to believe I'm the only one That 51% hints that there may be many more than me.

 

[AdrienIer]

If that's 51% of all Americans it's not entirely meaningful. You want to ask that question to those who are considering voting for someone other than Trump.

 

[Berzerker]

I think Booker will drop leaving Kamala to get more of the minority vote (along with women). Sanders and Warren rob each other and if Biden gets in he'll force Sherrod Brown out. It'll be between Biden, Sanders and Kamala. Warren is a somewhat strong candidate but she shares too much of her base with others and I think Sanders wins that battle because of his run in 2016. If Biden sits out it'll be between Sanders and Harris with Warren a close 3rd.

Biden or Sanders will be the nominee with Harris the 'longshot'

another thing, Harris is more personable than Warren - only a professor could make a prosecutor look amiable

 

[rah]

If that's 51% of all Americans it's not entirely meaningful. You want to ask that question to those who are considering voting for someone other than Trump.

Not entirely. I would expect 'some' correlation. But just an opinion.

 

[AdrienIer]

Biden or Sanders will be the nominee with Harris the 'longshot'

If the race narrows down early to Harris vs someone (most likely Biden or Sanders) Harris will have a good chance by virtue of being near the center of the democratic party and probably getting a large part of the minority vote.

 

[metalhead]

It's still a poor strategy and won't help get people elected.
While it's probably easy to get a majority of people to say that blacks have been discriminated against and have been harmed by that, it's another thing to convince generations of people that weren't even in the country yet or the ancestors weren't in the country when slavery existed they they are responsible for all their ills. (regardless of it's validity) Work on getting justice instead of blaming people. It's a better strategy.

But that's just it, it doesn't have to be framed as blaming anybody. Frame it as a long overdue payment previously denied Black people on account of racist people that existed 60, 70, 80 years ago. Well OK, I guess that still blames people, but the people being blamed are long dead.

Righting those historic wrongs is justice.

 

[Berzerker]

but then all you're doing is shifting the blame and people see that as fundamentally unjust

someone robs your house, you dont go next door and steal their stuff

 

[Lexicus]

You're not really an anti-Trump voter, though - you "vote your conscience", whereas if you were an anti-Trump voter you would just vote for the Democratic nominee no matter what.

 

[rah]

I don't know. I actually think they're the same. I have a lot of ex-republican friends that all refused to vote for trump. The general consensus was the we would vote for whoever we wanted but wouldn't just vote for someone we were told to vote for just because it wasn't trump.
But you're probably right that there is a gray area somewhere in there.

 

[Traitorfish]

I disagree since I'm an anti-trump voter who will not vote for a dem too far to the left.

So, like, a Republican.