2020 US Election (Part One)

[Timsup2nothin]

After all, no one has an issue with voting for someone who is insane.

Well, we did elect Trump.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Just by CNN exit polling Biden is going to win by about twenty-five. That's not going to carry though, because early voting won't show up on exit polls and it is likely to tilt more towards Sanders than the day of vote does. Calculated SWAG...Biden by twenty-two when the dust settles.

 

[Takhisis]

Can we put to rest the absurd notion that Trump fears

Trump is the embodiment of fear and hatred. At least his public persona is, but since he posts the same crap when alone in his bed with a cellphone then it's probably his own little mind that's coming to the surface.

 

[amadeus]

I see [Biden] winning within a 8-10 pt margin over Sanders ...

Pretend you didn’t see that!

Unless the latter half of the counting shows a surge for the other candidates, I really boned this prediction. So is Biden’s victory (as of now a 30 point margin over Sanders) enough? Is Warren out of the race in a 5th place finish?

 

[Imaus]

Bernie got absolutely wrecked today, and while it won't affect super-tuesday too much, it does dampen the chances of him winning 1990+. 538 is assuming that we're going to get a brokered convention with Bloomberg biting 500 or so delegates, Bernie around 1600, Biden 1200, Warren 200. No one wins outright and thus everyone will scramble to give their delegates to Biden.

Honestly Super Tuesday doesn't look too sweet for Bernie either. He's winning with 1/4th the vote, 1/3rd the vote. That's not really supportive.

No one else gets 15%, so no one else gets delegates today, but Bernie needs to nab at least 300, 500 more. And even Warren going over to him isn't enough.

This either shows two things: Democrats don't know Bernie, or do know and don't care enough to vote, to vote for him, or whomever. Bernie's going to be attacked for much of the same as in 2016: he doesn't have broad appeal, minority appeal, his base is small and focused, and thus he doesn't deserve the nomination. And honestly if he gets into that convention, Obama's going to come, everyone else is going to come, and say 'Go Biden', and that'll be the end of Our Revolution. The Left will run out the party, throwing tomatoes along the way, and the Center will go 'good riddance' and fill the empty seats with Moderates and RINOs and DINOs.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Pretend you didn’t see that!

Unless the latter half of the counting shows a surge for the other candidates, I really boned this prediction. So is Biden’s victory (as of now a 30 point margin over Sanders) enough? Is Warren out of the race in a 5th place finish?

That margin won't hold. Not going to drop anywhere close to your...hey, wasn't there a prediction from you somewhere...???

 

[hobbsyoyo]

CNN says Tom Steyer is likely to drop out.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

CNN says Tom Steyer is likely to drop out.

That seems likely. And he will almost certainly become a champion of the Democratic Unity Fund as a spokesman and a donor.

 

[Zardnaar]

Sanders will win big in blue states, red and purple not so much.

Unfortunately for him that's where the election needs to be won.

To early to call it, on to super Tuesday.

 

[adcarrymaokai]

Biden was supposed to win SC, and he won fair and square. No questions here. I am more concerned about the majority/plurality divide and the possibility of a brokered convention because all these other grifters like Bloomberg or Pete are absolutely going to do everything they can to steal the nomination from Sanders.

To be completely honest, I am almost curious to see what will happen if and when the nomination is stolen. The Democratic party is already hinging on younger and progressive wing of the party, and if they show the middle finger to all the people who organized for Bernie—which also includes people who endorsed him, like that super unpopular congresswoman AOC or senator Nina Turner—I wonder what is going to happen to the party. I will not vote blue no matter who, and many people, who are already skeptical of the Democratic party sucking up to corporate elites, are just going to leave. Who knows, maybe Bernie can run as an independent? Or maybe AOC can leave the Dems and start her own party? I know I will join. Republicans are also bleeding their numbers because younger generations are not fiscally or socially conservative either. I kind of want to see the entire political system collapse, and if they cheat Bernie out of the nomination, it might just happen.

 

[adcarrymaokai]

Unfortunately for him that's where the election needs to be won.

How is it that the Democrats always want to talk about winning red states when Republicans never care about blue states? How is it that Democrats are always talking about appealing to Republican voters, but Republicans could not give a single damn about appealing to blue voters? Enough of this crap. Grow a pair and stop pandering to the people who are never going to vote for you.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Biden was supposed to win SC, and he won fair and square. No questions here. I am more concerned about the majority/plurality divide and the possibility of a brokered convention because all these other grifters like Bloomberg or Pete are absolutely going to do everything they can to steal the nomination from Sanders.

To be completely honest, I am almost curious to see what will happen if and when the nomination is stolen. The Democratic party is already hinging on younger and progressive wing of the party, and if they show the middle finger to all the people who organized for Bernie—which also includes people who endorsed him, like that super unpopular congresswoman AOC or senator Nina Turner—I wonder what is going to happen to the party. I will not vote blue no matter who, and many people, who are already skeptical of the Democratic party sucking up to corporate elites, are just going to leave. Who knows, maybe Bernie can run as an independent? Or maybe AOC can leave the Dems and start her own party? I know I will join. Republicans are also bleeding their numbers because younger generations are not fiscally or socially conservative either. I kind of want to see the entire political system collapse, and if they cheat Bernie out of the nomination, it might just happen.

"Cheat," "steal," those are really interesting words for "follow the rules."

 

[Zardnaar]

How is it that the Democrats always want to talk about winning red states when Republicans never care about blue states? How is it that Democrats are always talking about appealing to Republican voters, but Republicans could not give a single damn about appealing to blue voters? Enough of this crap. Grow a pair and stop pandering to the people who are never going to vote for you.

Bidens going to do well in red States in the nomination.

In the general it's the purple states they need to flip and Florida.

GoP doesn't have to flip anything so they don't have to worry about blue states. The Democratic contenders do.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

when Republicans never care about blue states?

What are you talking about? Trump won because he showed up and campaigned behind Hillary's 'blue wall'. She didn't bother showing up herself.

 

[amadeus]

At this point I wonder if Buttigieg would hang on in the race hoping to collect enough delegates to push Biden over the edge and get himself a spot as VP?

But I still think his best bet is to lose gracefully and hold on to 2024.

 

[adcarrymaokai]

What are you talking about? Trump won because he showed up and campaigned behind Hillary's 'blue wall'. She didn't bother showing up herself.

He campaigned just because running for president requires.... campaigning? Hillary is a special case of arrogance, though, and she really lost an unlosable election because of that.

 

[Imaus]

Biden was supposed to win SC, and he won fair and square. No questions here. I am more concerned about the majority/plurality divide and the possibility of a brokered convention because all these other grifters like Bloomberg or Pete are absolutely going to do everything they can to steal the nomination from Sanders.

To be completely honest, I am almost curious to see what will happen if and when the nomination is stolen. The Democratic party is already hinging on younger and progressive wing of the party, and if they show the middle finger to all the people who organized for Bernie—which also includes people who endorsed him, like that super unpopular congresswoman AOC or senator Nina Turner—I wonder what is going to happen to the party. I will not vote blue no matter who, and many people, who are already skeptical of the Democratic party sucking up to corporate elites, are just going to leave. Who knows, maybe Bernie can run as an independent? Or maybe AOC can leave the Dems and start her own party? I know I will join. Republicans are also bleeding their numbers because younger generations are not fiscally or socially conservative either. I kind of want to see the entire political system collapse, and if they cheat Bernie out of the nomination, it might just happen.

Bernie will never run Indie. Doesn't work. A new party won't start either - doesn't win anything in the EC. The only time the Libertarians have won, for instance, was due to bad faith electorals in 2016, 1972. Greens have never won a EC vote. It takes billions of dollars and a political machine to make a party, and the Dem Progs/Soc Dems don't have that. Bernie will go back to the Senate and be the pariah he already is since '16. AOC might be dislodged by local contenders. So on and so on.

The Dems will 'officially', and in their view, not flip off the Left Wing, and do what they did in '16 - adopt a 'progressive' platform and all that jazz, as if it means anything. Of course, like you've said, you and many more won't buy it and will leave the party - their actions in the last week have already shown, once again, their true corporate leashes and coats to the donor class and the DNC.

There is time, however, to do a double-down and prepare for the next few months, and Bernie needs to win *HIGH*, not low, not by the skin of his teeth. The problem is, I suspect, apathy. Half the Dem party just doesn't vote in primaries. Nearly half the nation doesn't vote at all. Get more people out there, reinforce, and votes change. Bernie has been slowly shifting his rhetoric, about time, but he needs to find numbers and stick to them.

 

[adcarrymaokai]

Bernie will never run Indie. Doesn't work. A new party won't start either - doesn't win anything in the EC. The only time the Libertarians have won, for instance, was due to bad faith electorals in 2016, 1972. Greens have never won a EC vote. It takes billions of dollars and a political machine to make a party, and the Dem Progs/Soc Dems don't have that. Bernie will go back to the Senate and be the pariah he already is since '16. AOC might be dislodged by local contenders. So on and so on.

The Dems will 'officially', and in their view, not flip off the Left Wing, and do what they did in '16 - adopt a 'progressive' platform and all that jazz, as if it means anything. Of course, like you've said, you and many more won't buy it and will leave the party - their actions in the last week have already shown, once again, their true corporate leashes and coats to the donor class and the DNC.

There is time, however, to do a double-down and prepare for the next few months, and Bernie needs to win *HIGH*, not low, not by the skin of his teeth. The problem is, I suspect, apathy. Half the Dem party just doesn't vote in primaries. Nearly half the nation doesn't vote at all. Get more people out there, reinforce, and votes change. Bernie has been slowly shifting his rhetoric, about time, but he needs to find numbers and stick to them.

You are probably right, but everything seems impossible until it is actually done by someone. Only time will tell.

 

[Imaus]

You are probably right, but everything seems impossible until it is actually done by someone. Only time will tell.

If there's one thing, one thing I want from today, is that Bernie sees this as a wake up call and doubles down. Full steam ahead. Every delegate counts, even just getting ONE more delegate than needed to avoid a brokered convention is key. More money, more people hopefully leads to more votes.

 

[amadeus]

GoP doesn't have to flip anything so they don't have to worry about blue states. The Democratic contenders do.

But Trump is going to want to keep as many of those states as possible; he saw what Dem. complacency did and it could come back to bite the GOP too.