2020 US Election (Part One)

[adcarrymaokai]

California takes at least 3 weeks to tally all votes, if not more. So the initial result will certainly be off.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

California takes at least 3 weeks to tally all votes, if not more. So the initial result will certainly be off.

Always. California vote by mail requires that your ballot be postmarked no later than election day, so no count is really official until some arcane understanding of the postal system tells them that no more votes will be arriving. I honestly have no idea how they figure that out, but I know in a lot of places it's like six weeks after election day before they will certify the results.

The concern for the Sanders campaign is that Biden will have a lot of admittedly small wins to bellow about and Sanders will be stuck with one big but still unofficial victory to try to keep his momentum going.

 

[Zardnaar]

Always. California vote by mail requires that your ballot be postmarked no later than election day, so no count is really official until some arcane understanding of the postal system tells them that no more votes will be arriving. I honestly have no idea how they figure that out, but I know in a lot of places it's like six weeks after election day before they will certify the results.

The concern for the Sanders campaign is that Biden will have a lot of admittedly small wins to bellow about and Sanders will be stuck with one big but still unofficial victory to try to keep his momentum going.

That's Sanders problem though. USA is more than California and New York, hell I've been hanging in about it for months.

Popular vote doesn't matter, winning California doesn't really matter.

If Sanders doesn't win California that will be surprising.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

That's Sanders problem though. USA is more than California and New York, hell I've been hanging in about it for months.

Popular vote doesn't matter, winning California doesn't really matter.

If Sanders doesn't win California that will be surprising.

The question isn't even really so much "winning" as "winning big." Sanders wants to come out of Tuesday campaigning on "if you don't want a contested convention you have to vote for me," and he needs big wins to be able to make that claim plausible.

It is possible that that is what was driving a lot of Biden's collapsing poll numbers, and if South Carolina is an indicator that people are polling it but not voting it then Tuesday might be a surprise. If Sanders wakes up Wednesday with Biden in a close second position, even if it is just because of slow reporting from California, I don't think he can run the campaign that he wants to run.

 

[Zardnaar]

The question isn't even really so much "winning" as "winning big." Sanders wants to come out of Tuesday campaigning on "if you don't want a contested convention you have to vote for me," and he needs big wins to be able to make that claim plausible.

It is possible that that is what was driving a lot of Biden's collapsing poll numbers, and if South Carolina is an indicator that people are polling it but not voting it then Tuesday might be a surprise. If Sanders wakes up Wednesday with Biden in a close second position, even if it is just because of slow reporting from California, I don't think he can run the campaign that he wants to run.

Bernie's the only one with much charisma. Whoever the nominee ends up being they kind of need a big win (like Trump 2016 GoP convention).

 

[hobbsyoyo]

Always. California vote by mail requires that your ballot be postmarked no later than election day, so no count is really official until some arcane understanding of the postal system tells them that no more votes will be arriving. I honestly have no idea how they figure that out, but I know in a lot of places it's like six weeks after election day before they will certify the results.

The concern for the Sanders campaign is that Biden will have a lot of admittedly small wins to bellow about and Sanders will be stuck with one big but still unofficial victory to try to keep his momentum going.

Do they not count mail-in ballots until election day? I don't understand why they wouldn't start counting them (but not announcing the tallies) as they come in to help get the final tally faster.

What is super annoying about the drawn-out California vote tally is that the news media will tend to call these elections prematurely. My district was 'won' by the incumbent by election night (she was announced the winner by media and celebrated) and it took about the full 2-3 weeks of slowly counting the mail-in ballots before she conceded that she had in fact lost by a decent margin. Another local candidate put up a daily vote tracker where he scraped government websites daily and updated the in-progress tally for everyone in tow and this gave me hope in those 2-3 weeks.

Bernie's the only one with much charisma.

I don't agree.

 

[Kyriakos]

Biden trying to hold on is like an old man with dementia trying to run for president.
Oh wait

 

[Estebonrober]

"Cheat," "steal," those are really interesting words for "follow the rules."

Following those rules has always lead to the person with the most delegates getting the nomination, now we have most of the DNC political class already talking about "stealing" the nomination from bernie even when he gets the plurality of the vote.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Following those rules has always lead to the person with the most delegates getting the nomination, now we have most of the DNC political class already talking about "stealing" the nomination from bernie even when he gets the plurality of the vote.

Has it? Even I can't directly remember a convention where there wasn't a first ballot majority, so the question of how to handle a plurality was moot. As to who is doing all the talking about "stealing" the nomination from Bernie, it mostly seems to be the same people who talk about how the last one was "stolen" from him. You remember, the one where he got 45% of the votes in the primaries so he faced someone who had a clear majority of the delegates? Notice the pattern of screaming about thefts that aren't thefts?

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Do they not count mail-in ballots until election day? I don't understand why they wouldn't start counting them (but not announcing the tallies) as they come in to help get the final tally faster.

The counting doesn't actually cause the delays. They are actually just waiting for the ballots to come in. The postal service has some process for tracking where they say "all mail postmarked by election day has now been delivered." I have no idea how that works, but that's what they are waiting for.

 

[Ajidica]

Following those rules has always lead to the person with the most delegates getting the nomination, now we have most of the DNC political class already talking about "stealing" the nomination from bernie even when he gets the plurality of the vote.

It really comes down to how much of a lead Sanders has going into the convention in terms of delegates. Going in with 45% of delegates and nobody else above 30%, but with someone besides Sanders winning the nomination is a pretty strong argument for it being 'stolen'.
Sanders going in with 35% and two other candidates at 30% would make claims of someone else winning making the nomination 'stolen' is a lot harder.

 

[Kaitzilla]

Is it bad to smile a tiny bit when watching this video?

 

[Truthy]

That's hilarious

 

[Timsup2nothin]

It really comes down to how much of a lead Sanders has going into the convention in terms of delegates. Going in with 45% of delegates and nobody else above 30%, but with someone besides Sanders winning the nomination is a pretty strong argument for it being 'stolen'.
Sanders going in with 35% and two other candidates at 30% would make claims of someone else winning making the nomination 'stolen' is a lot harder.

As does a 45/40/15 split where the two horse race is decided by the third party.

Is it bad to smile a tiny bit when watching this video?

I wonder if the pro-Trumpers considered the fact that pigeons are commonly called "___birds" or "flying rats." Perhaps there is a message in having the bottom feeding scum of the bird world revealed as Trumpists?

 

[Zardnaar]

I wonder if the pro-Trumpers considered the fact that pigeons are commonly called "___birds" or "flying rats." Perhaps there is a message in having the bottom feeding scum of the bird world revealed as Trumpists?

Hey don't besmirch Pigeons like that. They gave their standards

 

[Takhisis]

And while we are it, consider me a Russian bot, an incel, a wine mom, a Karen, a boomer, and whatever else. I am embracing all these identities. :^)

What's a wine mom? It's the only one I didn't know beforehand and it's not on Wiktionary (yet).

 

[Imaus]

What's a wine mom? It's the only one I didn't know beforehand and it's not on Wiktionary (yet).

Wine Moms are detached, withdrawn alcoholic mothers who always go for a bottle of wine than dealing with problems/parenting correctly, all under a veneer of fun and aloofness

 

[Hrothbern]

Wine Moms are detached, withdrawn alcoholic mothers who always go for a bottle of wine than dealing with problems/parenting correctly, all under a veneer of fun and aloofness

from what you say...
In my youth they were called sherry mothers.
Sherry and not something chardonnay being the hype.

but yeah... they were still married in them days, not a job... and had no facebook

the opposite were the tea terror mothers
when you got home from school... especially as girl... the tea would be ready... and you were supposed to talk about the day... and then off to do your homework

 

[Sommerswerd]

Is it bad to smile a tiny bit when watching this video?

Pigeon abuse. Call PETA

 

[Takhisis]

Wine Moms are detached, withdrawn alcoholic mothers who always go for a bottle of wine than dealing with problems/parenting correctly, all under a veneer of fun and aloofness

Thanks.