2020 US Election (Part One)

[hobbsyoyo]

What a cardinal sin against wokeness that is!

 

[Cloud_Strife]

What a cardinal sin against wokeness that is!

No worry my friend, I'm sure this TIME the same economic policies as before won't **** us all over again

Because 2016 proved, more of the same is so tantalizing

 

[Samson]

No worry my friend, I'm sure this TIME the same economic policies as before won't **** us all over again

Because 2016 proved, more of the same is so tantalizing

But campaign staffers have no say over economic policy?

 

[Cloud_Strife]

But campaign staffers have no say over economic policy?

It indicates a desire to return to the orthodoxy

 

[hobbsyoyo]

I don't think it was economic policies that helped Trump win. People hated Hillary and he got lucky with how poorly she campaigned to eek out an EC win. People like Biden on the other hand. And it's not like the economy is doing fundamentally better under Trump than Obama so Biden has that argument working for him too.

 

[Socrates99]

Geeze dude are people not allowed to change?

And Warren is the most far-left out there next to Bernie. Sure she's not as hardcore as Sanders and isn't willing to wear the same labels he does, but saying she's turned in her progressive credentials is hyperbolic. Y'all keep shouting about the party not making room for you but then say stuff like this and it's a pretty big turnoff.

And speaking only for myself, this stuff reflects poorly on Sanders because it really makes me wonder what about him attracts this level of devotion that reality begins to distort? The contrarian part of my personality instantly kicks in with this kind of rhetoric and definitely made me like him less even if that's 100% not his fault. I think the claims of a cult of personality are themselves hyperbolic but there's a seed of truth there.

She mostly just scolds bankers these days. The CFBP was great but she really hasn't fought for much beyond that. Not lifting a finger to stop Hillary in 2016, undermining Bernie in 2019 voting for Trump's bloated military budget...I mean, what's really more progressive about her these days than other democrats? She's clearly second best in the field but doesn't seem to be the fighter than got her that reputation in the first place.

I wouldn't call her a republican like Cloud. I'd say she's mostly just a disappointment because she's lost her will to stick her neck out.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

The wikileaked emails showed the Clinton campaign was in command long before she became the nominee.

No, they didn't. But of course to a famous dot connector like yourself they did provide dots that could be made into yet another insane conspiracy.

 

[Socrates99]

No, they didn't. But of course to a famous dot connector like yourself they did provide dots that could be made into yet another insane conspiracy.

I'm curious. What was the damaging information in the leaked emails?

 

[Timsup2nothin]

I'm curious. What was the damaging information in the leaked emails?

Mostly it was that they existed. The Clinton campaign, as most campaigns do, was coordinating fund raising with the DNC and working with down ballot candidates as much as possible. For example, while in hindsight Clinton failing to appear in what turned out to be the key midwestern states turned out to be a mistake, at the time she was expecting to win and was campaigning heavily in Georgia alongside the senate candidate there in hopes of flipping a senate seat. It's called 'working for the good of the party.' Anyway, since the Sanders campaign never showed any interest in working with the party they have no such e-mail exchanges and concluded that having such e-mail exchanges meant "nefarious plot against us." Since @Berzerker has never met a 'nefarious plot discovered' that he didn't buy into unless it implicates Trump he is of course going to bring it up every chance he gets for the rest of forever.

 

[Socrates99]

Mostly it was that they existed. The Clinton campaign, as most campaigns do, was coordinating fund raising with the DNC and working with down ballot candidates as much as possible. For example, while in hindsight Clinton failing to appear in what turned out to be the key midwestern states turned out to be a mistake, at the time she was expecting to win and was campaigning heavily in Georgia alongside the senate candidate there in hopes of flipping a senate seat. It's called 'working for the good of the party.' Anyway, since the Sanders campaign never showed any interest in working with the party they have no such e-mail exchanges and concluded that having such e-mail exchanges meant "nefarious plot against us." Since @Berzerker has never met a 'nefarious plot discovered' that he didn't buy into unless it implicates Trump he is of course going to bring it up every chance he gets for the rest of forever.

that doesn't sound damaging at all. So Wikileaks had nothing to do with her loss?

 

[Timsup2nothin]

that doesn't sound damaging at all. So Wikileaks had nothing to do with her loss?

You think Berzerker is the only lunatic dot connector in the world? The media was in a frenzy poring through and reporting every time someone found an e-mail with a campaign staffer on one end and a DNC staffer on the other. Endless speculation filled half the news cycle and squeezed out half the absolutely rancid crap that Trump was doing every day. Any time something really damaging to Trump hit the news it was immediately followed by a "wikileaks dump with new revelations." Of course it influenced the election.

It's still influencing this one. Look how many Sanders supporters are all up in arms about how "Bernie was robbed!!!" The fact that Sanders got beaten by ten points isn't enough to outweigh the "conspiracy in the e-mails"...e-mails that I'd bet money they have never even read for the most part.

 

[Socrates99]

You think Berzerker is the only lunatic dot connector in the world? The media was in a frenzy poring through and reporting every time someone found an e-mail with a campaign staffer on one end and a DNC staffer on the other. Endless speculation filled half the news cycle and squeezed out half the absolutely rancid crap that Trump was doing every day. Any time something really damaging to Trump hit the news it was immediately followed by a "wikileaks dump with new revelations." Of course it influenced the election.

It's still influencing this one. Look how many Sanders supporters are all up in arms about how "Bernie was robbed!!!" The fact that Sanders got beaten by ten points isn't enough to outweigh the "conspiracy in the e-mails"...e-mails that I'd bet money they have never even read for the most part.

So two years of Russiagate was because Russia helped Wikileaks steal mostly harmless emails that stopped a few tinfoil hat wearers from throwing their vote her way?

I've always found it a little paradoxical that the campaign simultaneously claims the leaks were damaging while also saying "nothing to see here." Was curious about what the answer was.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

So two years of Russiagate was because Russia helped Wikileaks steal mostly harmless emails that stopped a few tinfoil hat wearers from throwing their vote her way?

I've always found it a little paradoxical that the campaign simultaneously claims the leaks were damaging while also saying "nothing to see here." Was curious about what the answer was.

Russiagate was about the Russians stealing mostly harmless e-mails and then using them in an orchestrated fashion to dominate the news cycles in favor of Donald Trump, which was a pretty slick plan, and whether they coordinated that plan with Donald Trump's campaign or just ran it independently.

 

[Birdjaguar]

Meanwhile Bidens brain continues down the same path as Reagan's

Because like it or not Biden performances as of late are worrying

That is why the VP choice is critical. Neither Biden not Sanders will run in any more campaigns. They are one term presidents.

Good man. Republican conservatives like Tim and BJ lost their party to more and more insane people starting in the 80s and culminating with Trump. In their warped minds it’s their natural right to move the Overton window and claim the democratic party as theirs now - and push everyone currently there out on their arse, justified by pointing their fingers and calling them radicals. After all that’s what’s happed at the top and corporate level of the party as well. When Bloomberg in the debate said he bought 21 reps and Nancy Pelosi, it may have been a bit of a Freudian slip, but he was not joking.

I've been voting for 50 years and never once voted for any Republican. Your ignorance is stunning. Your attempts at name calling just make you look silly.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

Bloomberg's Campaign Expenditures compared to the GDP of the only primary he won

Thought this was pretty interesting. There's going to be a lot of studies done on Bloomberg's campaign.

 

[Berzerker]

I see him doing something about health care, judge appointments, not driving the country into the gutter. Not claiming he's a good or ideal candidate.

Thats true, he campaigned on restoring and improving the ACA and that actually has a chance of happening if he wins... and then there's always judicial appointments. But we've been in the gutter a long time and Biden's been a happy denizen of the swamp too.

They give no reason, all factors played a role. And indeed if the economy tanks due to Corona hysteria, Trump is screwed.

From the little research I've done economic 'fundamentals' are good and advisers are saying this 'correction' will be V shaped recovering relatively quickly in 3-4 months if not sooner. Cold/flu season is ending in the northern hemisphere too as we warm up and will help suppress the spread of Corona. I'd be interested to see if the Spanish flu and other pandemics follow the pattern of ebb and flow depending on whether its summer or winter.

I disagree. Bernie showed that he could not win over the broad coalition that will be necessary to win the nomination. Barring Biden having a stroke or something, or Bernie somehow making a successful case over the next ten days or so that he's the "safe" choice against Trump (I suppose not impossible given Biden's weaknesses) he can't win the nom.

Plus Biden is favored in NY and Florida. Bernie needs a sweep of the rust belt to have a chance and as others have said, Biden surpassed the hurdle of 'electability'. He's apparently even doing better in Michigan polls.

Warren has dropped out of the race.

**Edit**
Won't be official until later this morning.

Well I was wrong about that, I thought Bloomy would drop to get out of Biden's way and she'd stay to dilute Bernie in exchange for the establishment's blessing. Warren just announced she wont be endorsing anyone today, she'll wait on that for the deals to be offered. She'll endorse Biden eventually, a Sanders endorsement would damage her standing with the party.

No, they didn't. But of course to a famous dot connector like yourself they did provide dots that could be made into yet another insane conspiracy.

RussiaGate was a debunked conspiracy theory, DNC emails showing how the party apparatus was co-opted by the Clinton campaign exist. Do you really think Julian Assange would be a villain to the Democrats if the emails supported your BS?

Since @Berzerker has never met a 'nefarious plot discovered' that he didn't buy into unless it implicates Trump he is of course going to bring it up every chance he gets for the rest of forever.

I believed Trump conspired with Russia far too long. I can understand why you're in denial, if I voted for someone caught rigging elections I'd feel defensive too. But I'd still admit what happened instead of gaslighting people.

I'm curious. What was the damaging information in the leaked emails?

The DNC was in debt after Obama's 2 runs for Prez and she bailed it out in exchange for control. One of the many ironies is the Clinton campaign chided Bernie for not raising enough money for the party while she was laundering it for her own campaign.

The release provides further evidence the DNC broke its own charter violations by favoring Clinton as the Democratic presidential nominee, long before any votes were cast.

Over the past several weeks, Guccifer 2.0 released several internal memos showing DNC staff strategizing to make Clinton the presidential nominee—as early as March 2015. In June 2016, Florida-based law firm, Beck & Lee, filed a class action lawsuit against Wasserman Schultz and the DNC based on the revelations from these leaked files.

Other emails show DNC staff in damage control over allegations from the Sanders campaign, when a report—corroborated by a Politico—revealed the DNC’s joint fundraising committee with the Clinton campaign was laundering money to the Clinton campaign instead of fundraising for down-ticket Democrats.

https://observer.com/2016/07/wikileaks-proves-primary-was-rigged-dnc-undermined-democracy/

As Hillary’s campaign gained momentum, she resolved the party’s debt and put it on a starvation diet. It had become dependent on her campaign for survival, for which she expected to wield control of its operations.

But what happens to the cash after that initial distribution is left almost entirely to the discretion of the Clinton campaign. Its chief operating officer, Beth Jones, is the treasurer of the victory fund. And FEC filings show that within a day of most transfers from the victory fund to the state parties, identical sums were transferred from the state party accounts to the DNC, which Sanders’ supporters have accused of functioning as an adjunct of the Clinton campaign.

https://www.politico.com/story/2016/04/clinton-fundraising-leaves-little-for-state-parties-222670

Right around the time of the convention, the leaked emails revealed Hillary’s campaign was grabbing money from the state parties for its own purposes, leaving the states with very little to support down-ballot races.

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/11/02/clinton-brazile-hacks-2016-215774

 

[Birdjaguar]

as such yes

I think death rates as such are great because of boiling a disease down to one number, but have as weak spot that they do not indicate the lost life years.

A car accident is likely to cause many life years lost because it also applies to younger people.
This Covid-19 mortality rate applies mostly to older people that have already some affliction => much less life years lost.

There is however a second order effect with Covid-19:
With many people having it at the same time, the mortality rate will increase very strongly because there will be not enough standard hospital beds and intensive care capacity to treat the more severely sick.

Slowing down the spreading and therefore postponing a really high amount of patients, the peak, gives health care authorities more time to ramp up a bigger capacity to treat patients.
Slowing down the spreading even during the peak will flatten the peak and result in a longer peak => more patients will benefit from the hospital capacity.

As far as I understand our Dutch health strategy this peak is assumed-planned to happen in 2-3 months from now. I see statements inthe UK that are indicating a similar understanding and approach.

Well, in the US we have a much better plan. Rather than testing and preparing for more patients, we just tell people to carry on as normal and everything will be fine. We also pray.

 

[Lexicus]

Geeze dude are people not allowed to change?

And Warren is the most far-left out there next to Bernie. Sure she's not as hardcore as Sanders and isn't willing to wear the same labels he does, but saying she's turned in her progressive credentials is hyperbolic. Y'all keep shouting about the party not making room for you but then say stuff like this and it's a pretty big turnoff.

And speaking only for myself, this stuff reflects poorly on Sanders because it really makes me wonder what about him attracts this level of devotion that reality begins to distort? The contrarian part of my personality instantly kicks in with this kind of rhetoric and definitely made me like him less even if that's 100% not his fault. I think the claims of a cult of personality are themselves hyperbolic but there's a seed of truth there.

This isn't really a matter of "distorting reality". Warren's "progressive credentials" are a matter of interpretation.

It is true she is further left than anyone other than Bernie...but Bernie himself doesn't exactly set the bar very far to the left (I saw a tweet or something somewhere that said "I wish there was a real communist in the race just for comparison's sake" and oh boy that would have been funny, just so people can see how non-radical Bernie really is...) and the other candidates are all basically right-wing.

Now to me Bernie himself is a milquetoast social democrat, and I have no expectation that the Democratic Party wants to make room for people like me. It's not called history's second-most enthusiastic capitalist party for nothing.

 

[Takhisis]

Maybe they shouldn't be so damn stupid and insultable.

Get real, you can't seriously be this naive

The problem is that stupid people don't like being told that they are so.

The question seems not to be who will be the next POTUS, but who will be the next GOTUS (Geriatric of the United States)?,

Who're the geriatricians going to be is the more relevant question. Reagan had handlers. Bush had viceroys.

There's going to be a lot of studies done on Bloomberg's campaign.

Start here:

A take on the winner of the American Samoa primary:

What Bloomberg's $500m could have bought instead​

 

[Broken_Erika]

Well, in the US we have a much better plan. Rather than testing and preparing for more patients, we just tell people to carry on as normal and everything will be fine. We also pray.

And if people die, it's because they weren't praying hard enough or they didn't accept jeebus as their savior.