The point is that such multinational arrangements are not at all like any personal arrangements, so should not be compared to them. Are there any similar instances of countries leaving trading blocks but continuing to contribute to their upkeep? I kind of guess not, as one side or the other would have brought them up, but that is surely the relevant question.
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Brexit Thread III - How to instantly polarise your country without even trying
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Akka
Moody old mage.
As usual with you when it's about the EU, I'm pretty certain it's a completely twisted version of what actually happened.
Care to quote what was really said just so we can see the big difference between the typical attempt to cast the EU as a big evil mafia-like secret conspiracy, and reality ?
EnglishEdward
Deity
The EU has already stopped the European Investment Fund investing in Britain.
https://www.uktech.news/news/indust...tment-in-uk-tech-plunges-post-brexit-20180423
From there:
So the UK is paying into the EIF for the two year notice period, despite there being little and no benefit to the UK.
That is hardly conducive to expecting us to pay into the EC27 for years after we have left.
Would be nice to know the exact small print conditions of the EIF contributions regarding leaving the EU.
On that 39 Bio.
I guess that is not based on the total annual UK contribution to the EIF, but the annual net funding of it (after substraction of amounts going to the UK from the EIF), multiplied by the number of committed project years.
Would be nice to have some transparency there.
I guess I have to wait 50 years for that
On that 39 Bio.
I guess that is not based on the total annual UK contribution to the EIF, but the annual net funding of it (after substraction of amounts going to the UK from the EIF), multiplied by the number of committed project years.
Would be nice to have some transparency there.
I guess I have to wait 50 years for that
Well, given that we already agreed to pay our commitments, irrespective of whether we get a trade deal or not, I think we should just thank the Will of the People for making such clear and sensible decisions in the first place.
Treeza May will seek to overturn all the defeats she suffered in the Lords (15 so far, apparently)
And the DUP can bring the government down if the Conservatives try their hand at direct rule in Northern Ireland.
Meanwhile, the fact that the new infrastructure required to absorb Channel port disruption will not be ready in time for no-deal Brexit is completely unsurprising, since it is still unknown what infrastructure there will have to be, as there is no plan yet.
…Key controversies including leaving the EU customs union and single market, the Irish border and parliament’s power if the government’s exit deal is rejected will all be up for grabs. (…)
The decision comes after many months in which the Commons has considered little legislation, packing its schedule with vote-free debates instead.
Three days of scrutiny were expected on the Lords amendments, not a single 12-hour sitting – with an entire day for the customs union and single market.
(…)
Earlier, it emerged that the prime minister is poised to break her promise to publish “ambitious and precise” plans for Brexit this month, after more cabinet infighting.
A detailed white paper – designed to put the UK on the front foot in the troubled talks – is now not expected to appear until after a crunch EU summit at the end of June.
The document was due to be published before the two-day Brussels summit, starting on June 28, but Ms May’s spokesman refused to say that timetable would be met.
“I’ve not put a timeframe on it, other than we will bring it forward as soon as possible,” he said.
The decision comes after many months in which the Commons has considered little legislation, packing its schedule with vote-free debates instead.
Three days of scrutiny were expected on the Lords amendments, not a single 12-hour sitting – with an entire day for the customs union and single market.
(…)
Earlier, it emerged that the prime minister is poised to break her promise to publish “ambitious and precise” plans for Brexit this month, after more cabinet infighting.
A detailed white paper – designed to put the UK on the front foot in the troubled talks – is now not expected to appear until after a crunch EU summit at the end of June.
The document was due to be published before the two-day Brussels summit, starting on June 28, but Ms May’s spokesman refused to say that timetable would be met.
“I’ve not put a timeframe on it, other than we will bring it forward as soon as possible,” he said.
And the DUP can bring the government down if the Conservatives try their hand at direct rule in Northern Ireland.
Meanwhile, the fact that the new infrastructure required to absorb Channel port disruption will not be ready in time for no-deal Brexit is completely unsurprising, since it is still unknown what infrastructure there will have to be, as there is no plan yet.
innonimatu
the resident Cassandra
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You have self-serving idiots in government at a time when you absolutely needed competent people who cared about the country. That is one big problem the UK has right now. And I don't know hod deep the rot has set, but fear that the civil service has been gutted, starting with Thatcher and worsening since. This is the time when the UK's invention of "public-private partnerships" will truly bite the british.
I'd say that is one big problem the UK has had since anybody posting here was born (except maybe Edward). Leaving the European Union with a preformulated, detailed plan based on actual statistics and realistic calculations, and then actually putting that plan forward before the referendum, would have been expected of anybody who aspires to competence.
Instead everybody except the lunatics (e.g. Farage, Johnson) said ‘well, Remain will win so why bother making plans?’ and the world is stuck with this.
Instead everybody except the lunatics (e.g. Farage, Johnson) said ‘well, Remain will win so why bother making plans?’ and the world is stuck with this.
innonimatu
the resident Cassandra
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But they could kind of drone on ahead despite that rotting of the country's institutions. Now they have a real challenge to deal with. Do they have the people to do it? I mean, at all? Half the PLP are EU collaborationists. The tories can't agree on what they want and the government seems utterly inept at negotiating. Except ion the Irish border issue where not deciding is indeed a good strategy (make it an Irish and EU problem). But even there I think it was luck (they are too incompetent to strike any deal and deal with the NI loyalists' opposition to one), rather than strategy. And no elections are likely before brexit.
On the political front the UK seems to be screwed. That is why I am wondering if there is still anyone in the civil service who can get things done. But knowing it suffered 30+ years of handling by this crop of politicians does not leave much hope.
I'm admitting to one mistake in my judgment on brexit: I didn't expect the UK so hollowed in governance as it seems now. Still is is good that they must now start fixing the country. No more excuses.
On the political front the UK seems to be screwed. That is why I am wondering if there is still anyone in the civil service who can get things done. But knowing it suffered 30+ years of handling by this crop of politicians does not leave much hope.
I'm admitting to one mistake in my judgment on brexit: I didn't expect the UK so hollowed in governance as it seems now. Still is is good that they must now start fixing the country. No more excuses.
Broken_Erika
Play with me.
Any remotely competent politicians resigned when the Leave won the Referendumb.
With an increasingly significant rôle played by the EEC and then the EU along the way. Tariffs suddenly stopped being the UK's to worry about, the same happened to health and safety standards and so on (which, unsurprisingly, the sitting government wants to do away, along with human rights, dark-skinned immigrants, etc.). Now the same political class and unrepaired institutions will have to drone on ahead without that safety net.
innonimatu
the resident Cassandra
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The UK still has enough of people with the technical know how. But they need to staff and equip the relevant public agencies. Apparently they have such faith in free trade that the B plan (perhaps the A plan?) is to just throw open the border. That is a recipe for disaster, there are too many unscrupulous traders willing to sell substandard or outright dangerous forged products.
If the british could assume that trade relations post-brexit would remain roughly the same (same suppliers selling to the same british buyers) the scope for fraud would be limited by fear by these sellers of compromising a profitable relationship. But disruption of trade (the EU can force it as part of a pressure strategy) and at least a temporary need to look for new suppliers is very likely. These new suppliers are very likely to try to sell shoddy products.
The UK needs well staffed labs to carry out inspections, especially in medicines, foods and electronics, and manned customs ports at its trade harbors. It needs to equip them and set up its organization, better late (now) than never(only notice it after brexit day). It needs also to increase capacity for dealing with the bureaucratic procedures. And should put pressure on ts industrial companies to step up their own testing in the post-brexit period. They sould should also start building some stocks of imported inputs now on non-perishable products, something the UK government could help along by offering interest-free loans for that purpose.
If the british could assume that trade relations post-brexit would remain roughly the same (same suppliers selling to the same british buyers) the scope for fraud would be limited by fear by these sellers of compromising a profitable relationship. But disruption of trade (the EU can force it as part of a pressure strategy) and at least a temporary need to look for new suppliers is very likely. These new suppliers are very likely to try to sell shoddy products.
The UK needs well staffed labs to carry out inspections, especially in medicines, foods and electronics, and manned customs ports at its trade harbors. It needs to equip them and set up its organization, better late (now) than never(only notice it after brexit day). It needs also to increase capacity for dealing with the bureaucratic procedures. And should put pressure on ts industrial companies to step up their own testing in the post-brexit period. They sould should also start building some stocks of imported inputs now on non-perishable products, something the UK government could help along by offering interest-free loans for that purpose.
The problem is that the UK can't open the borders much more than they currently are. The British financial markets are already a free-for-all casino-cum-money-laundering scheme and that is more or less the hard ideology of much of the ruling class (except, say, Corbyn whom everybody else wants away from power) - trade is good, by definition, and greed is good, by definition. As for substandard or outright dangerous products… the rise in child and youth obesity (bad nutrition, foodstuffs), the Grenfell fire (shoddy construction materials), the intentional defunding (stealth disbanding-dismantling, really) of the NHS, among others, should be a clear indication that they don't care already, so why would they start after exiting the EU? It's not the EU that imposes those low standards.
Stocking up non-perishable goods would also require the kind of foresight and selflessness which Parliament sorely lacks, regardless of Brexit and referenda.
Stocking up non-perishable goods would also require the kind of foresight and selflessness which Parliament sorely lacks, regardless of Brexit and referenda.
Experts need a coordinated and stable environment to do their thing.
I think that IF the UK would be able to use her experts in a normal fashion, the scenario it can achieve will be similar to Japan. Stagnated population, stagnated GDP, stagnated trade since decades now.
Consider that Japan is in a similar basic position as the Brexit UK is heading for: a high developed country with little trade with nearby countries.
Without immigration the population growth of UK will be around zero.
Without increasing trade as % of GDP, GDP will stagnate like Japan, unless the UK can grow relevantly needed economical sectors to a competitive level, for a more wholesome economy like for example the US.
If hard Brexit would decrease trade as % of GDP from 60% to the 30-35% of US, Japan etc..... and assuming that the rule of thumb applies that you get 3% GDP growth per 10% "trade as % of GDP" growth... GDP would go down with more than 6%.
Improving the quality of the domestic economy, aiming at the right diversification, priorities and competitiveness, the way to go.
A lot of experts and good coordination between politicians, experts and what the people are willing to accept mandatory.
Still doable over time. That recovery of that 6+ % being doable. After that stagnation like in Japan is again the most likely outlook. After all, the US is of a much bigger scale size for a high level "stand alone" economy.
But I am afraid this Brexit move is for now under control of a ruling elite that will more likely use eroding of costly social and health security, etc as the quick fixes for anything not achieved by the hard work of building up a healthy "more stand alone" economy.
Even if the Labour party would govern a bit more than 50% of the time, that will not change that social eroding in a substantial way. There are too many complicating factors, domestic and global, that play in the hands of the neo-liberals for the coming time.
I think that IF the UK would be able to use her experts in a normal fashion, the scenario it can achieve will be similar to Japan. Stagnated population, stagnated GDP, stagnated trade since decades now.
Consider that Japan is in a similar basic position as the Brexit UK is heading for: a high developed country with little trade with nearby countries.
Without immigration the population growth of UK will be around zero.
Without increasing trade as % of GDP, GDP will stagnate like Japan, unless the UK can grow relevantly needed economical sectors to a competitive level, for a more wholesome economy like for example the US.
If hard Brexit would decrease trade as % of GDP from 60% to the 30-35% of US, Japan etc..... and assuming that the rule of thumb applies that you get 3% GDP growth per 10% "trade as % of GDP" growth... GDP would go down with more than 6%.
Improving the quality of the domestic economy, aiming at the right diversification, priorities and competitiveness, the way to go.
A lot of experts and good coordination between politicians, experts and what the people are willing to accept mandatory.
Still doable over time. That recovery of that 6+ % being doable. After that stagnation like in Japan is again the most likely outlook. After all, the US is of a much bigger scale size for a high level "stand alone" economy.
But I am afraid this Brexit move is for now under control of a ruling elite that will more likely use eroding of costly social and health security, etc as the quick fixes for anything not achieved by the hard work of building up a healthy "more stand alone" economy.
Even if the Labour party would govern a bit more than 50% of the time, that will not change that social eroding in a substantial way. There are too many complicating factors, domestic and global, that play in the hands of the neo-liberals for the coming time.
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Akka
Moody old mage.
Good thing that the UK left the evil EU controled by a ruling elite that tries to erode the social securities and so on
That funny moment when a country is going to realize that all the problems they blamed on the EU actually came from within.
Broken_Erika
Play with me.
They'll still find a way to blame it on the EU; And Remoaner sabotage.Good thing that the UK left the evil EU controled by a ruling elite that tries to erode the social securities and so on
That funny moment when a country is going to realize that all the problems they blamed on the EU actually came from within.
Manfred Belheim
Moaner Lisa
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Is that... meant to be a bad thing?!
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