But the spread of the highly infectious Delta variant, the economic burden of closed borders, lockdown fatigue, and increasing vaccine availability are changing the equation. “In the long term [zero COVID] is not really economically sustainable,” says Ben Cowling, an epidemiologist at the University of Hong Kong (HKU). “Countries are going to need to test out different approaches to find the right balance between infection prevention and control and normalizing societal activities,” adds epidemiologist Keiji Fukuda, also at HKU.
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Australia is in the midst of a severe Delta-driven outbreak, with close to 2000 new cases daily that started with a single infection in Sydney, in the state of New South Wales, in mid-June. Nationwide elimination is no longer an option, says Ivo Mueller, an infectious disease epidemiologist at the Walter and Eliza Hall Institute of Medical Research in Parkville, Australia. “The Delta variant is sufficiently entrenched in New South Wales and Victoria that you won’t get that to zero,” he says. Meanwhile, lockdowns and other restrictions that affect roughly half of the country’s population of 25 million have led to large and sometimes violent demonstrations.