danjuno
Cole Phelps, Badge 1247
It'll arrive as soon as the Trump Foundation gets 5M of someone else's money.
Political Prediction Thread
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Lohrenswald
世界的 bottom ranked physicist
accused so by whom?
Gori the Grey
The Poster
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Because he has set the bar so low for himself. I've heard one reporter say (and remember, reporters favor Clinton) that if he simply shows up and doesn't vomit on himself, he will be declared the winner.
My own sense of it is that Clinton will win the debate as a debate, whereas Trump will win the debate as an opportunity for framing the election. She'll be great on policy. His line will be policy-schmolicy; it's policy what's got us into this mess. He's selling the notion that we're in a mess. It's an easier sell. People generally want change after two terms of one party. A third term is very rare. She has to 1) convince people things aren't so bad (which they're disinclined to believe just because we always want things to be better) or 2) convince people that she'll make significant change from how Obama has managed things (and articulating such a vision isn't easy in the first place and hasn't been her strong suit). Her other bid would be to convince people 3) that the kinds of changes Trump would bring would not be positive changes. That's hard to because people tend to equate change with change-for-the-better. (I wrote a limerick on this in the other thread; I'll try to dig it up.) People's unthinking assumption is just to believe that under Trump everything that's good will remain good, then he'll add his awesome positive changes on top of that. It's very hard to evoke for people in a visceral way how some goods that they take for granted could be seriously threatened under a Trump presidency. She has by far the harder lift, and her skills don't run toward letting her make that lift.
onejayhawk
Afflicted with reason
There is a Harvard study that says American media has a left bias. Some on the right claim it goes past bias to outright advocacy.
Trump will certainly claim to be the winner but so will Clinton. Advocates will advocate.
That said, these are more about perception than anything. If Trump looks like he belongs he scores points. Clinton has no such opportunity. Her reputation as a great debater works against her somewhat.
None of that is unreasonable. Clinton is very good at preparation and scripted answers. How she handles off-script will be telling. Trump is almost a mirror image--less prepared but better off-the-cuff.
J
Lohrenswald
世界的 bottom ranked physicist
The underlying premise of this is that "the left" and "the right" are, at a minimum, equivalent in terms of merit, or "the right" is actually superior. Otherwise there is no bias, unless you consider it biased to reject ideas, policies, ideologies that are without merit (which would not be a credible position). So the question is, do you personally consider "the right" to be equivalent or better than "the left"?Also, the bolded is just more anonymous authority fallacy, also referred to as "weasel words".
The bolded is contradicted by this
My explanation for this ties into my first observation in this post. You want Trump to "win", more specifically, you already plan on arguing that Trump won, and this is the set-up... you dial the expectations on Hillary up way high, so that you can easily point out how she failed to live up to them... while simultaneously lowering the expectations on Trump. I say this because as I have shown, you already downplayed Hillary's debating skills in another thread... but in this thread you are trying to sell her as a "great debater"... You completely flip your presentation of Hillary depending on what narrative you are trying to advance at the time.
So since this is a predictions thread... here is my prediction... The bit I highlighted above in red is correct. You are correct. "Advocates will advocate." You are a Trump advocate and after the debate, you will advocate the position that Trump won/met expectations while Hillary lost/failed to live up to expectations/put Trump away, etc...
I certainly wouldn't bet against that prediction.
Gori the Grey
The Poster
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'Caters gonna 'cate.
Hygro
soundcloud.com/hygro/
This is another moment where Al Gore jumped the gun about a generation. His first debate performance would be better suited to Trump in a post Jon Stewart era.
onejayhawk
Afflicted with reason
You quibble. Hillary is a very experienced and erudite debater, with a reputation to match. She is also uninspiring. There was an article in the last few days comparing her to Michael Dukakis on that point. Trump is more showman than debater.
It pains me to be called a Trump advocate. Ick. It seems like a lawyer with a client he cannot stand but must represent. That said, sycophants exaggerate. I will call them on it. The irony is that hatred of all things Trump is palpable, yet it comes from the party of tolerance.
J
In that vein, I have to call you on something... The right to counsel is one of our most sacrosanct Constitutional rights... for you to try to compare your voluntary decision to be a happy warrior for Trump to the burden of a public defender honoring his venerable Constitutional duty to defend a penniless person accused of a terrible crime is frankly shameful, and disappointing.
onejayhawk
Afflicted with reason
The happy-warrior is far off base, which lessens the impact of your statement. That said, duly noted.In that vein, I have to call you on something... The right to counsel is one of our most sacrosanct Constitutional rights... for you to try to compare your voluntary decision to be a happy warrior for Trump to the burden of a public defender honoring his venerable Constitutional duty to defend a penniless person accused of a terrible crime is frankly shameful, and disappointing.
J
A more apt comparison of your predicament is the love-hate relationship of the smoker with his pack of cigarettes. He hates them and wants to quit them, but he loves that cool smooth feeling they give him, like a familiar security blanket, just relaxing and doing what feels good... he hates them and knows that they are bad for him, but all his friends are smokers so it'd be too weird to become one of those self-righteous, judgmental, party-pooping, nonsmoker types...
And the alternative? Celery sticks?
Bleech... bland, boring, coarse, rigid... the kind of thing mom would make you finish even though you didn't want to. You hate them, they are the worst...and not all that good for you, just a bunch of fiber and water... a cig is much more enjoyable... Plus... the pesticides! What about the pesticides?!? Celery is covered in pesticides!! Oh the humanity the pesticides! So many different kinds! That stuff will kill you. The pesticides really are a big deal... total disaster... as bad as any chemical in the cigarettes, worse even, way worse. Plus the farm workers pee out in those fields, and you can never, never wash that off, believe me, no matter how long ago it was or how much you wash the celery, you can never be sure whether they're might be some pee left on it... Did I mention the pesticides?!?!
onejayhawk
Afflicted with reason
More like a vegan forced to sell raw meat.
J
J
Zkribbler
Deity
Trump's virtues are located on Aisle 4, right between the unicorns and the leprechauns.
onejayhawk
Afflicted with reason
Trump has virtues? Thanks for telling me. I'll look for one.
Otherwise, pretty much. I didn't like Cruz either, but it was obvious he was being underestimated pretty much across the board. Only Sommerswerd took him seriously.
This is true. Even Hillary Clinton has virtues.
J
Well, it would certainly be embarrassing for many people if he didn't.
onejayhawk
Afflicted with reason
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