Political Prediction Thread

I predict that Cruz will back Trump! :mischief:

I think that Trump will keep the debate focused on him so Hillary gets a diminished chance to make her points. He will try to make her look small and inconsequential. I think he will resort to name calling and call her a liar.
 
^^^ that's scary.
 
Post debate, I'm seeing these (and similar statements) like them:
onejayhawk said:
Since boxing is the metaphor, Clinton landed a lot of jabs but no combinations. She won on points but Trump was never knocked down or badly cut. Trump finished the bout standing. The question is whether that is close enough for government work....Mixed reviews. Hillary won on points but left the Donald standing. Who did better outside the forum?
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onejayhawk said:
He was supposed to get humiliated and knocked out. You can argue about the humiliation in terms of points, but he was not knocked out.
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onejayhawk said:
For not being knocked down, yes. Clinton needed a game change. It appears she did not get one...Trump stayed on message. Clinton took shots. That tends to favor that defender over the attacker, hence Trump over Clinton.
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Based on the above statements, I'm giving myself a "correct" on this prediction:
Sommerswerd said:
So since this is a predictions thread... here is my prediction... The bit I highlighted above in red is correct. You are correct. "Advocates will advocate." You are a Trump advocate and after the debate, you will advocate the position that Trump won/met expectations while Hillary lost/failed to live up to expectations/put Trump away, etc...
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danjuno said:
HRC wins without Florida and maybe Ohio. (Looks possible, though I didn't anticipate Trump would be doing better in Ohio than Florida. He still lacks a clear path to 270) Bernie Sanders quietly endorses Clinton when she hits 2383 delegates, then spends the rest of the campaign ignoring her while campaigning for progressive congressional candidates. (Wow, got that completely wrong.) Democrats retake the Senate with 50 or 51 Seats and roll back the Republican house majority by a dozen or so seats. (Also looking likely at this point) Drumpf supporters commit acts of violence repeatedly throughout her first term, further damaging conservatism. Hillary, meanwhile, turns her back on economic progressives and nothing changes from the last 8 years. (somewhat likely on both counts)
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I would like to add that the millennial-bashing in the primaries will drive a non-negligible number of young voters to 3rd parties, but HRC will make up with college educated white in the suburbs that normally vote GOP but despise Trump.
 
Sommerswerd said:
Post debate, I'm seeing these (and similar statements) like them: Based on the above statements, I'm giving myself a "correct" on this prediction:
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If you predicted that someone would try to stem the tide of Clinton euphoria, then yes. From what you quoted, indecisive.

J
 
The moderator at the debate only called out Trump's lies once or twice. It did make Trump seem even more unhinged as he flat out lied and said he didn't really say the things he was quoted as saying. But the moderator didn't really follow up and if this performance is indicative of future debates then I still think Trump is on the path to victory.

Without aggressive fact checking and rebuffing of his lies, the few undecided or 'just barely pro-Trump' people are not going to be swayed. Instead they'll cling to Trumps words and vote against 'crooked Hillary' who doesn't have the 'presidential look'.
 
Arakhor said:
Almost everyone has virtues. A few seem to go out of their way to hide them though.
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Made me think of the movie "Gladiator"
 
Then you don't remember this exchange

Marcus Aurelius: Yes. My decision disappoints you?
Commodus: You wrote to me once, listing the four chief virtues: Wisdom, justice, fortitude and temperance. As I read the list, I knew I had none of them. But I have other virtues, father. Ambition. That can be a virtue when it drives us to excel. Resourcefulness, courage, perhaps not on the battlefield, but... there are many forms of courage. Devotion, to my family and to you. But none of my virtues were on your list. Even then it was as if you didn't want me for your son.
Marcus Aurelius: Oh, Commodus. You go too far.
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You're right - I didn't, but I was speaking more generally. :)
 
If enough GOP big wigs denounce Trump over his sex talk/action, he might well tell them and the GOP to stuff it and walk from the campaign. "Teach them a lesson" as it were. If this continues to top the news cycle for many more days, I'd give him a 30-40% chance of walking.
 
Birdjaguar said:
If enough GOP big wigs denounce Trump over his sex talk/action, he might well tell them and the GOP to stuff it and walk from the campaign. "Teach them a lesson" as it were. If this continues to top the news cycle for many more days, I'd give him a 30-40% chance of walking.
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Can he walk though? Some states are already conducting early voting. His name's on the ballot.
 
I don't want him to walk TBH... If he walks then that becomes the excuse for him losing, and the "alt-right" gets another shot at putting their guy up for President. If he plays it out to the bitter end, and gets roachstomped, they're done, for at least 30 years or so, or until the next market crash... at which point two decades of marginalization, diversification and immigration will make them even less of a threat.
 
Sommerswerd said:
I don't want him to walk TBH... If he walks then that becomes the excuse for him losing, and the "alt-right" gets another shot at putting their guy up for President. If he plays it out to the bitter end, and gets roachstomped, they're done, for at least 30 years or so, or until the next market crash... at which point two decades of marginalization, diversification and immigration will make them even less of a threat.
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Agreed. We need a smackdown. The right is losing due to the population becoming increasingly made up of groups they've worked so hard to alienate, and time is not on their side.
 
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