Political Prediction Thread

[Zkribbler]

On the 5th, Time Magazine is coming out with a story debunking Trump's claim that he didn't know the Poles working on demolishing the building to make way from Trump Towers were illegals.

He was the one who spotted them working on the lot next door, who found a subcontractor to set up a company to hire them, who talked to the workers, who found out they were not being paid regularly, who actually paid some of them for awhile, and when they got really pushing, threatened to have them deported.

 

[Zkribbler]

Troubling. On Aug 14, Nate Silver said Hillary's chances of being elected were 89%. These chances have been slowly drifting down; now, he said she has only an 80% chance. That's a 9% drop in only two weeks. Arizona and Georgia have flipped back over into Trump's column.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Troubling. On Aug 14, Nate Silver said Hillary's chances of being elected were 89%. These chances have been slowly drifting down; now, he said she has only an 80% chance. That's a 9% drop in only two weeks. Arizona and Georgia have flipped back over into Trump's column.

Trump had, arguably, his best week of the campaign. I don't see him continuing that momentum though.

 

[Zkribbler]

IMHO, Trump will crash and burn in the debates.

The only danger for Hillary was the one faced by Biden when he debated Palin. He didn't want to be seen as a bully beating up on a girl. This time, Hillary must not been perceived as beating up on the village idiot.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

I think she set up for it yesterday. It's acceptable to beat up the village idiot if they are a DANGEROUS idiot.

 

[dutchfire]

Troubling. On Aug 14, Nate Silver said Hillary's chances of being elected were 89%. These chances have been slowly drifting down; now, he said she has only an 80% chance. That's a 9% drop in only two weeks. Arizona and Georgia have flipped back over into Trump's column.

Frankly speaking, you should probably ignore everything but the first digit of these sort of predictions.

 

[Gori the Grey]

This is a micro-prediction.

The Trump campaign is making rumblings that Trump will today formally and publicly acknowledge that he believes Obama was born in the US.

For the past couple of days, his surrogates have been saying he believes it. Yesterday he said he told a WP reporter that he wasn't ready to say so "yet." Today he's announcing a big statement.

My prediction is not that his statement won't be a remotely satisfying renunciation of his former view. That is a certainty.

My prediction is that within 24 hours of his statement, when pressed about it or asked a follow up question, he will testily say "I've already put that to rest." [How could you possibly ask me such an outdated question]

It's the testiness of the response that is my micro-prediction.

 

[Sommerswerd]

I was listening to CNN (Erin Burnett) and they had Mike Pence on (I think it was him... it was radio)... Anyway, she asked about the Trumps tax return and his "ongoing audit" baloney excuse... After a lot of squirming, and deflecting and evasion, Pence says something along the lines of "As the result of an IRS audit, they might deem the tax return unacceptable, and the taxpayer has to then complete a entirely new tax return" Wait, what?



So my prediction, is that this will be the new excuse on the tax return issue. No point in releasing a return if its not the final return, right?. If the IRS finds any fault with the original return we can't release that because we are completing a new (or supplemental, or amended) return, which of course, won't be ready before the election... but if elected, he will certainly produce it after the election.

 

[sophie]

Btw Trump promised to donate $5M to charity if Obama ever proved conclusively that he was born in this country.

Where's the 5M Donnie?

 

[hobbsyoyo]

NPR has picked up the habit of interrupting recorded audio to say 'that is false' after most of Trumps claims. He just makes things up whole-clothe, on the spot, non-stop. He just claimed Hillary started the birther movement. At any other time, it would be a WTH??? moment but today it doesn't even rate. And no other news organization is bothering with fact checking the stream of lies that pours forth from Trump's mouth.

I'm sure 'stream of lies' makes me come across as an ultra-left wing liberal but I'm really not. Especially not by European standards. But there is no other description for what Trump says that quite sums it up as well as 'stream of lies'. He makes stuff up, all day long. The media doesn't bother fact checking and a very large segment of the population laps it up.

And I don't think it will matter how badly he will be beaten in the debates unless the moderators take an active role and call out his lies as he makes them up. Because if Hillary does it, she'll come across as the b-word (completely unfairly) to the audience. Also, our country is so polarized right now that one candidate calling out another candidate for lying will not be believed by the other side. At all. And her supporters already know it to be true, so no minds will be changed.

The best hope for people to actually change opinions on Trumps lies is if neutral moderators to call him out but that won't happen. And even then, it will just be more evidence of the evil 'liberal media' in the eyes of his supporters. He'll bash the moderators afterward, make vague threats against them and his supporters will eat it up.


Anyway, what I really wanted to do is pop in and again predict that Trump is going to win. Young people cannot be counted on voting for Hillary in the numbers needed to put her over the top. I think minorities will turn out heavily for her as they are directly threatened. But without the star appeal of an Obama or Sanders on the ticket, young people are going to stick this one out. It's going to be like the Brexit all over again, with much worse consequences.

Because of the two groups that are mostly riled up by this election - older white people and minorities - one heavily outnumbers the other.

 

[Mouthwash]

Since the OP didn't specific a time frame, I'll predict that everything being discussed here will barely merit footnotes in the history books by the end of the century.

 

[Sommerswerd]

NPR has picked up the habit of interrupting recorded audio to say 'that is false' after most of Trumps claims. He just makes things up whole-clothe, on the spot, non-stop. He just claimed Hillary started the birther movement. At any other time, it would be a WTH??? moment but today it doesn't even rate. And no other news organization is bothering with fact checking the stream of lies that pours forth from Trump's mouth.

I'm sure 'stream of lies' makes me come across as an ultra-left wing liberal but I'm really not. Especially not by European standards. But there is no other description for what Trump says that quite sums it up as well as 'stream of lies'. He makes stuff up, all day long. The media doesn't bother fact checking and a very large segment of the population laps it up.

And I don't think it will matter how badly he will be beaten in the debates unless the moderators take an active role and call out his lies as he makes them up. Because if Hillary does it, she'll come across as the b-word (completely unfairly) to the audience. Also, our country is so polarized right now that one candidate calling out another candidate for lying will not be believed by the other side. At all. And her supporters already know it to be true, so no minds will be changed.

The best hope for people to actually change opinions on Trumps lies is if neutral moderators to call him out but that won't happen. And even then, it will just be more evidence of the evil 'liberal media' in the eyes of his supporters. He'll bash the moderators afterward, make vague threats against them and his supporters will eat it up.


Anyway, what I really wanted to do is pop in and again predict that Trump is going to win. Young people cannot be counted on voting for Hillary in the numbers needed to put her over the top. I think minorities will turn out heavily for her as they are directly threatened. But without the star appeal of an Obama or Sanders on the ticket, young people are going to stick this one out. It's going to be like the Brexit all over again, with much worse consequences.

Because of the two groups that are mostly riled up by this election - older white people and minorities - one heavily outnumbers the other.

I'm sad that my prediction about Hillary picking Bernie to be VP didn't come true... I think that decision signaled that she was making a play for moderate conservatives rather than the youth vote, and it seems to have been a miscalculation, both in terms of how much she would need the youth vote, as well as how many moderate Republicans she could attract.

 

[Hygro]

Since the OP didn't specific a time frame, I'll predict that everything being discussed here will barely merit footnotes in the history books by the turn of the century.

A daring and bold bet

 

[Phrossack]

A daring and bold bet

Seems accurate, though. The Fourth World War will shake things up, and most historians will focus on the far-reaching implications of the Polish nuclear carpet bombing campaign against India and on the emergence of Prester John.

 

[CELTICEMPIRE]

I'm going to predict Trump loses by 4%.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

I'm sad that my prediction about Hillary picking Bernie to be VP didn't come true... I think that decision signaled that she was making a play for moderate conservatives rather than the youth vote, and it seems to have been a miscalculation, both in terms of how much she would need the youth vote, as well as how many moderate Republicans she could attract.

I concur with your logic. I don't think Bernie would have played well with the mythical 'moderate' group of voters but that group isn't very big to begin with. Many people who were going to vote for her would have done it with Bernie on the ticket. And young people who don't usually vote still won't now that he's not on the ticket.

 

[_random_]

Since the OP didn't specific a time frame, I'll predict that everything being discussed here will barely merit footnotes in the history books by the end of the century.

US history books usually have a good amount to say about crucial presidential elections, like 1896 and 1912, for example. We're more than a century removed from both of those, and I imagine this will be one with a pretty strong impact.

But given this, I'll say that Canada will have an NDP government between now and 2240.

 

[onejayhawk]

Any predictions about the Clinton/Trump debate next Monday?

J

 

[Lohrenswald]

most reporters will say that Trump won, I reckon

 

[onejayhawk]

most reporters will say that Trump won, I reckon

Why is that? It is generally acknowledged that most reporters prefer Clinton. It is so pronounced that the press has been accused of backing Clinton rather than simply reporting.

J