Political Prediction Thread
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Assuming that Hillary wraps up the nomination, I predict that Hillary's initial approach to Trump, will be a variation of her approach to Sanders. She will try to play the "boss" role, and smugly treat Trump as an unfortunate diversion to be dismissed and directly engaged as little as possible. Her attacks will all be backhanded, as if she is swatting a fly. I expect a lot of sighing
and 
smiling and saying things like "You know, we've been hearing attacks like this against me and Bill for decades... its just the same old, same old Republican attacks we heard dozens of times, just repackaged with reality show flair... I'm more interested in... blah, blah... pivot to issues... blah blah American people's real problems... not gonna be distracted by..." You get the idea... its gonna be like a broken record until Drumpf can get above the 47% in the polls that Romney got.
Timsup2nothin
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Assuming that Hillary wraps up the nomination, I predict that Hillary's initial approach to Trump, will be a variation of her approach to Sanders. She will try to play the "boss" role, and smugly treat Trump as an unfortunate diversion to be dismissed and directly engaged as little as possible. Her attacks will all be backhanded, as if she is swatting a fly. I expect a lot of sighing
You get the idea... its gonna be like a broken record until Drumpf can get above the 47% in the polls that Romney got.
There will be the occasional zinger line thrown in, which she hasn't done to Sanders. I expect variations on "that doesn't make you strong, it just makes you wrong" to be reasonably common. Only when Trump takes a position that is clearly alienating to 80% of the population, which he does often enough.
ParkCungHee
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And I thought you'd dispute my assessment that Clinton would campaign poorly.Assuming that Hillary wraps up the nomination, I predict that Hillary's initial approach to Trump, will be a variation of her approach to Sanders. She will try to play the "boss" role, and smugly treat Trump as an unfortunate diversion to be dismissed and directly engaged as little as possible. Her attacks will all be backhanded, as if she is swatting a fly. I expect a lot of sighing
You get the idea... its gonna be like a broken record until Drumpf can get above the 47% in the polls that Romney got.
Nah, you're right but then... "poorly" is highly relative/subjective right? I mean, since I love NFL analogies... The Panthers played "poorly" in the second half against the Sehawks in the playoffs... But they still won... So who really performed "poorly"?... the person who did what was necessary to win (presumably Hillary), or the person who lost despite their best efforts, performing much better than everyone expected (Sanders, Drumpf)?And I thought you'd dispute my assessment that Clinton would campaign poorly.
Moreover, what does that tell you about the underlying quality of the (teams) campaigns? One campaign puts up a piss-poor showing and still wins. The other puts up a performance of a lifetime and still manages to lose convincingly. Clearly the winner was far better in the first place, right?
onejayhawk
Afflicted with reason
To extend this analogy, the Democrats have a better team but a piss poor QB. The Republicans have motivation issues, off the field distractions but Joe Montana to Jerry Rice.
J
Timsup2nothin
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LOL...the Republicans have Tim Tebow, maybe, but not Joe Montana.
New prediction: Trump is imploding, will fail in Wisconsin and go down hill from there. No nomination for him.
onejayhawk
Afflicted with reason
He needs more than 2/3 of the Wisconsin delegates to be on track for 1237. The polls are saying less than 1/4. Then comes a two-week layover til New York. Trump needs over 80% to stay on track. By the 20th we should be able to tell much more. If Cruz steps aside, Trump cruises. If Trump steps aside, Cruz has a path. If neither steps aside, both lose. There is strong motivation for a deal.
J
innonimatu
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I cannot understand the urge so many people feel a need to believe that things must follow a stable trend or a stable pattern.
"On track" is meaningless in this, politics don't work in a linear way. You should always count on "surprises".
I'm guessing that Stone guy working for Trump will pull a few on Cruz. And I'm guessing that Hillary is up to some nasty shocks also as well because I still don't see her party pulling behind her as it was supposed to happen per her plans...
It's all still open. You guys are having an interesting year in politics.
"On track" is meaningless in this, politics don't work in a linear way. You should always count on "surprises".
I'm guessing that Stone guy working for Trump will pull a few on Cruz. And I'm guessing that Hillary is up to some nasty shocks also as well because I still don't see her party pulling behind her as it was supposed to happen per her plans...
It's all still open. You guys are having an interesting year in politics.
onejayhawk
Afflicted with reason
On track means a great deal in this case. Here are some charts. All were done before the voting started.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/
For comparison, think of a baseball team that wants to win its division. The set a target of games won. That gives a winning%. Go through the season and tweak the percentage based on the quality of the opponents. If, on July 1st, the team is ten games under their target number, it might be time to have a fire sale and play the rookies. If they are ten games over, focus on more of the same. If they are close, the team may try to rent a player or two.
All GOP candidates have a target number, 1237. Then you take a percentage of the delegates from each state which will get you that number, balancing for things like home turf and ideological agreement. That gives you a curve. If you are above the curve (Hillary Clinton) then you are doing well. If you are below the curve (everyone else) then you need to make up for lost opportunities.
The Donald is at about 95% of his target. Call it 50 delegates short. The Wisconsin polls indicate that he will drop another 15-18 delegates behind. Where can he pick up 65-70 delegates more than he expected back in January?
The reason the track matters is that, very unusually, Trump is close to, but below, his number. Things are getting to the point that small changes cannot work. Hence the need for big changes or a new strategy.
J
Just keeping score here:
ALL YOUR PREDICTION ARE BELONG TO ME
5 for 5 so far.Kasich will drop out.- Check
Trump will get the nomination outright.- Check
Clinton will get the nomination outright.- Check
Sanders will stay in until Clinton has won outright.- Check
Sanders will be selected as VP.
The GOP will not run a 3rd party candidate and will "unite" behind Trump.- Check
Trump will pick a white male with brown hair as his running mate.
Hillary will get over 400 electoral votes.
The Democrats will take the Senate.
Trump will blame the GOP "not supporting me" for the loss.
The Senate will not have hearings on Garland and his nomination will be withdrawn after the election.
Prez Obama will nominate Sri Srinivanasan in the lame duck and he will be confirmed rather than wait for Hillary and a Democrat controlled Senate to appoint Bill Clinton.
ALL YOUR PREDICTION ARE BELONG TO ME
Lohrenswald
世界的 bottom ranked physicist
I'm still right
gay_Aleks
from the river to the sea, Palestine will be free!
Actually, it makes sense. Since we can't predict the future, all that there is blankness that is left for us to fill.
Or something.
Or something.
Lohrenswald
世界的 bottom ranked physicist
it's redacted because CFC auto-censor
gay_Aleks
from the river to the sea, Palestine will be free!
Yes, but I decided to opt in for a more creative, and, perhaps, more optimistic reading of it.
Lohrenswald
世界的 bottom ranked physicist
Then you obviously have no sense of where the current political situation is heading us
Just keeping score here:5 for 5 so far.
ALL YOUR PREDICTION ARE BELONG TO ME
I'm loving the hubris of deciding Clinton is the nom even though there's still 2 and a half months of voting until the convention
ITS HER TURN, WHY DONT THE PLEBS UNDERSTAAAAAND
gay_Aleks
from the river to the sea, Palestine will be free!
Unless Sanders suddenly turns into the Riddler, hypnotises all the superdelegates into voting for him and then beating up Trump by breaking his mind with a simple riddle, I don't see this happening.
Quite apart from the fact that he's clearly not being too serious, is there any realistic impediment to her nomination now?
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